MacroView: Election in Germany (video), ECB, EU, Spain, IMF & Greece

Germany election 2017 UPDATE 24 Sep 2017: Far-right AfD stuns German establishment by finishing third with 13.5% and will enter parliament for the first time, but Merkel wins fourth term--"Of course we had hoped for a slightly better result." said Angela Merkel, who must now form a coalition government, a potentially difficult task that could take months trying to woo unwilling potential coalition partners.

The Latest: German election: Merkel vows to form stable govt | The Washington Post: "Center-left challenger Martin Schulz, whose Social Democrats were the junior partners in Merkel’s outgoing government, said shortly after exit polls showed his party headed for a historic election defeat Sunday that it would go into opposition. In a television discussion involving major party leaders, he accused Merkel of conducting a “scandalous” campaign that avoided debate and created “a vacuum” that the nationalist Alternative for Germany party filled."

The German Election Explained

Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video published Sep 18, 2017: German voters head to the polls this Sunday in an election that determines whether Chancellor Angela Merkel remains at the helm of Europe’s biggest economic power. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina explains how the election will be won and why the race for third place is all important. See also: German election polls 2017 | FT.com

Germany's AfD Tests Merkel's Leadership, Says Posen

Bloomberg.com video published Sep 19, 2017: Adam Posen, president at Peterson Institute for International Economics, previews the upcoming German election. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

How German Elections Can Influence the ECB's (European Central Bank) Future:

Video above published Aug 18, 2017, by Bloomberg.com: Themis Themistocleous, head of European investments at UBS Wealth Management, explains how choices made by voters in the German election on 24 Sept 2017, can impact the European Central Bank (ECB). He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close." See also:

• Merkel quashes hopes of ambitious eurozone reform | POLITICO.eu Aug 29, 2017: "... the comments suggest Merkel will continue to push the current German strategy for the eurozone, placing emphasis on economic reforms in member countries rather than pooling financial risk through common debt issuance and other measures ..."
• Why 'More Europe' Won't Solve Europe's Fiscal Quandary | Bloomberg.com Aug 31, 2017.

• France's Debt Is Euro-Zone's Largest | Bloomberg.com Aug 30, 2017

• Greece hopes for debt relief as bailout program enters final 12 months | cnbc.com: "Greece's debt isn't manageable in the long-run without being either extended or forgiven, according to the IMF."
• Spain-Catalonia split: Here’s how bad economically it could really be | cnbc.com and Catalonia’s Defiance of Spanish Authority Turns into Rebellion--WolfStreet.com.

• ECB Tightens Noose Around Bank Accounts | WolfStreet.com: "Locking up the money of unsuspecting depositors to prop up collapsing banks. The European Central Bank (ECB), arguably the European Union’s most powerful and least accountable institution, apparently needs more power, according to Daniele Nouy, the ECB’s top supervisor. Chief among the fresh powers it seeks is the power to temporarily prevent people from withdrawing their money from their accounts at banks that are in distress, including by electronic fund transfers." and The Next Spanish Bank Teeters, at Worst Possible Time | WolfStreet.com.

"It's been a lost decade for investors in the world's banks. For Europe's lenders in particular, the wounds are far from healed."--Bloomberg.com

"The IMF remained upbeat about the soundness of the European banking system ... this lapse was largely due to the IMF’s readiness to take the reassurances of national and euro area authorities at face value"--IEO report, infra

IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro and apologises for the immolation of Greece | telegraph.co.uk: "The three main bailouts for Greece, Portugal and Ireland were unprecedented in scale and character. The trio were each allowed to borrow over 2,000pc of their allocated quota – more than three times the normal limit – and accounted for 80pc of all lending by the fund between 2011 and 2014 ... “Before the launch of the euro, the IMF’s public statements tended to emphasise the advantages of the common currency," ... Some [IMF] staff members warned that the design of the euro was fundamentally flawed but they were overruled." (emphasis added)

The IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal | ieo-imf.org executive summary excerpt:

"The IMF’s handling of the euro area crisis raised issues of accountability and transparency, which helped create the perception that the IMF [International Monetary Fund] treated Europe differently. Conducting this evaluation proved challenging. Some documents on sensitive issues were prepared outside the regular, established channels; the IEO faced a lack of clarity in its terms of reference on what it could or could not evaluate; and there was no clear protocol on the modality of interactions between the IEO and IMF staff. The IMF did not complete internal reviews involving euro area programs on time, as mandated, which led to missed opportunities to draw timely lessons." (emphasis added)

Press release (highlighting added):

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DISCLAIMER

ICANN 51: GAC Actions Show Global Internet Community Ready

ICANN 51, Los Angeles, October 14, 2014: The global internet community was given two hopeful signs for the future of internet governance today thanks to actions by member nations of the GAC (Governmental Advisory Committee):

1. The GAC elected as its next Chair, Thomas Schneider--"GAC Chair election results are in: 37 votes for Imad Hoballah of Lebanon, and 61 votes to Thomas Schneider of Switzerland"--this is great news! Mr. Schneider has impressive credentials:

Internet Governance Forum: "Thomas Schneider is the deputy head of the international affairs service and the international information society coordinator at the Swiss Federal Office of Communication (OFCOM) in the Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC). He is an expert in internet governance and in the governance of the information society, in particular media/new media regulation, human rights and consumer protection. He is coordinating the Swiss activities with regard to the implementation and follow-up of the UN World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) and is representing Switzerland in a number of international fora (UN, ITU, ICANN/GAC, Council of Europe, OSCE, UNESCO, etc.)... He is representing Switzerland in the ITU Council Working Group on WSIS (since 2005) and has been co-chairing the ITU Council Working Group on Stakeholder Participation in ITU's activities related to WSIS (2006-2010). From 2003-2005, he was coordinating all Swiss activities in both phases of WSI (Geneva 2003 and Tunis 2005) ... including the Swiss hosting of the first phase of WSIS in Geneva. He was representing Switzerland in the Bureau of the WSIS for the second phase of WSIS (Tunis 2005)...."

2. The ICANN Board of Directors also met with the GAC on Tuesday and member nations indicated that the global Internet community was not necessarily bound by the ICANN Board nor preconditions of the U.S. Government in determining the future governance of the global Internet DNS by the global Internet community:

Excerpts from the transcript of the Joint Meeting of the GAC & ICANN Board | ICANN51 | Los Angeles: Date: Tue, 14 October 2014 - 17:00 to 18:30 PDT

CHAIR DRYDEN: NEXT.
CHINA: ... I WOULD LIKE TO SAY BRAZILIAN AND INDIAN REPRESENTATIVES HAVE RAISED THE QUESTION. WE THINK THIS QUESTION IS VERY IMPORTANT. WE ARE ALSO PAYING A LOT OF ATTENTION TO IT. OUR QUESTION IS ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE OF ICANN.... 

IRAN: ....WE NEED ... TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON THE ACCOUNTABILITY PROCESS.... THE WAY THAT THE ISSUE OF ACCOUNTABILITY ALONG THE LINE OF WHAT WAS SAID BY BRAZIL AND IN PARTICULAR ALSO THE ISSUE RAISED BY PORTUGAL ...ACCOUNTABILITY WHICH IS THE ISSUE RAISED BY BRAZIL AND PARTLY BY INDONESIA AND PORTUGAL AND OTHER COLLEAGUES.... WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE ACCOUNTABILITY, WHICH RELATES TO THE ACTIVITY OF THE ICANN SHOULD BE GIVEN THE ICANN. SHOULD BE ANOTHER ENTITY WHO DEALS WITH THAT AND ICANN SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE AND ACCOUNTABLE TO THAT ENTITY WHATEVER THAT ENTITY SHOULD BE. FOR THE TIME BEING THAT ISSUE IS NOT CLEAR AND WE DON'T KNOW HOW THE MATTER IS GOING TO BE DONE. THEREFORE, WE BELIEVE THAT THE REVIEW OF THE WHOLE PROCESS THAT NOW ANNOUNCED BY ICANN THREE DAYS AGO NEEDS TO BE FURTHER TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THE COMMENTS THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED AT THIS MEETING BY VARIOUS COLLEAGUES AND TRY TO HAVE AN APPROACH WHICH WORKS AND WHICH HAS SOME RESULTS. OTHERWISE, I DON'T THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE A PROPER ACTIVITIES ON ACCOUNTABILITY. THIS IS MUCH MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ACTIVITY OF THE TRANSITION OF IANA FUNCTION. ACCOUNTABILITY IS THE CORE ACTION, IS THE HEART OF THE BUSINESS AND NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED. AND UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE MENTIONED SEVERAL TIMES IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS SOME SORT OF RELUCTANCY NOT TO LISTEN TO WHAT WE ARE SAYING. NOT LISTEN TO WHAT WE EXPRESS AS A CONCERN AND WE HOPE THIS TIME THAT WE WILL BE HEARD AND WE WILL BE -- OUR POINT OF VIEW WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THANK YOU.

CHAIR DRYDEN: THANK YOU, IRAN. IN RESPONSE TO CHINA'S INTERVENTION, I BELIEVE [ICANN CEO] FADI CHEHADE WOULD LIKE TO PROVIDE A REPLY.

FADI CHEHADE: ...LET ME START WITH THE ACCOUNTABILITY... I THINK IT'S EXTREMELY CLEAR FROM THE NEW DOCUMENT THAT WE ISSUED A FEW DAYS AGO ON THE ACCOUNTABILITY THAT EVERYTHING IS IN SCOPE. SO LET'S BE VERY CLEAR. THERE IS NOTHING OUT OF SCOPE... IN ISTANBUL ASSISTANT SECRETARY STRICKLING WAS ONCE AGAIN CRYSTAL CLEAR. HE WILL NOT ACCEPT A PROPOSAL OF TRANSITION WITHOUT COMMUNITY CONSENSUS ON ACCOUNTABILITY RELATING TO THE TRANSITION. HE LINKED THEM COMPLETELY... INDONESIA, I THINK YOU MEANT THEIR [Verisign's] ROLE AS THE ROOT ZONE MAINTAINER....WE'RE NOT GOING TO MOVE UNTIL THE COMMUNITY TELLS US WHAT IS THE MODEL OF THE FUTURE.... CHINA ASKED ABOUT NETmundial. WHAT IS NEXT... THE COMMUNITY IS STILL DISCUSSING THESE THINGS.... TO IRAN... THE GENTLEMAN WAS SAYING, WE NEED TO BE ACCOUNTABLE TO ANOTHER ENTITY. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WAS VERY CLEAR THAT OUR ACCOUNTABILITY IS TO THE MULTISTAKEHOLDER COMMUNITY. IT IS NOT GOING TO BE TO A GOVERNMENT. IT IS NOT GOING TO BE TO AN INTERGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATION, WITH ALL DUE RESPECT. THESE ARE THE CONDITIONS THAT THE AMERICANS HAVE SET. THERE'S NO QUESTION ABOUT THAT. SO IF WE'RE GOING TO CREATE ANOTHER ENTITY, IT CANNOT BE AN INTERGOVERNMENTAL ENTITY. AND AS SOME PEOPLE HAVE SUGGESTED ...

BRAZIL: THANK YOU, CHAIR. AND I'D LIKE TO THANK FADI FOR HIS COMMENTS. BUT I THINK IN HIS COMMENTS HE HAS JUST MADE CLEAR THE DIFFERENCES WE HAVE IN APPROACH TO THIS BECAUSE WE CAN SEE AND UNDERSTAND THIS TRANSITION PROCESS AS YOU HAVE SPELLED OUT THAT THE PROPOSAL BY SEPTEMBER 15 WILL INCLUDE ACCOUNTABILITY MEASURES IN REGARD TO THE IANA TRANSITION. AND YOU CAN UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS THE APPROACH WE WILL TAKE AND SECRETARY STRICKLING HAS PROPOSED, BUT WITH ALL DUE RESPECT TO YOUR APPROACH AND TO THE U.S. APPROACH, THE APPROACH THAT MY GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TAKE BEGS TO DIFFER AND TO SAY THAT WE THINK ACCOUNTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE ENCOMPASSING THAN THAT. THAT SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE OTHER MEASURES THAT WOULD ALSO CHANGE THE NATURE OF THIS EXERCISE... SO WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT THOSE PROCESSES CONVERGE... WE, IN PRINCIPLE, DO NOT THINK IT IS ACCEPTABLE TO HAVE A VERY NARROWLY FOCUSED UNDERSTANDING THAT ACCOUNTABILITY MEASURES WILL BE INCLUDED BY SEPTEMBER 15 WILL BE LIMITED TO THE IANA FUNCTIONS. WE THINK THAT WOULD BE -- INSUFFICIENT. INSUFFICIENT. AND IN REGARD TO THE SEPTEMBER 2015 DEADLINE, WE ARE FULLY COMMITTED TO THIS. WE -- SOMETIMES WE SAY WE SET ARTIFICIAL DEADLINE BUT I DON'T THINK THIS IS AN ARTIFICIAL DEADLINE. IT IS SOMETHING LINKED TO A VERY CONCRETE THING. BUT WE WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT THAN A BAD AGREEMENT JUST TO COMPLY WITH THE DEADLINE. SO WE ARE FULLY BEHIND AND FULLY ENGAGED BUT WE WOULD LIKE REALLY TO GO AN EXTRA MILE IN MAKING ALL THE EFFORTS WE CAN TO ADDRESS IN LINE WITH WHAT NETmundial SAID. THE (INDISCERNIBLE) THAT ADDRESSES THE BOTH INTERNAL AND THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY INCLUDING GOVERNMENTS. THANK YOU.

CHAIR DRYDEN: THANK YOU, BRAZIL.

My reading of all this: The global internet community is starting to reach consensus--

1) Neither the US government nor the ICANN Board can control nor predetermine the outcome of these processes. Nobody elected Larry Strickling (nor anyone else) the world's dictator over how the global internet, including DNS, is to be governed. Frankly, the arrogance and presumption of the US government and its progeny (ICANN) is becoming obnoxious.  ICANN (including its IANA and accountability groups) may not be the proper fora to continue or conclude this work;

2) Accountability is the most important issue and should be dealt with first--it will determine "the model for the future" as Chehade described it, and from that, how the IANA functions (including root zone) stewardship should be structured;

3) US government representative Larry Strickling's suggested two track accountability process is a trap set by incumbents (US government, ICANN Board, etc.) to maintain the status quo;

4) The idea that ICANN can be accountable to itself is increasingly ludicrous to the vast majority of the world--a California corporation, with no membership, and a self-selected Board of Directors, accountable only to itself, in control of the global Internet DNS, including the Internet Root Zone? The US government needs to change its attitude and approach, or it will become increasingly isolated in the world. See: ICANN, IANA, US Government, Internet Stewardship

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo


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