Showing posts with label Buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buffett. Show all posts

2019-05-11

Tech Review | How Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Each Hit $1 Trillion Valuation

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2019-05-11)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) How Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Each Hit $1 Trillion Valuation, 2) 5G Hype, 3) Investing: The Week & Investor Notes, 4) ICYMI Tech News: Google, Amazon, YouTube, Verizon, Qualcomm, Intel, Apple, ASML, Pixel 3a.
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1) How Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Each Hit $1 Trillion Valuation

Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are the first three publicly traded U.S. companies to hit $1 trillion in market value (market capitalization). WSJ’s Dan Gallagher explains how each company reached the milestone. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published May 6, 2019.

2) 5G Hype: 5G discussions are complex, convoluted, no one really knows what's happening:
source: statista.com
5G still has a long way to go and can't scale. The 5G network relies on mmWaves, whereas 4G LTE uses MHz.  T-Mobile's CTO Neville Ray: "Millimeter wave (mmWave) spectrum has great potential in terms of speed and capacity, but it doesn’t travel far from the cell site and doesn’t penetrate materials at all. It will never materially scale beyond small pockets of 5G hotspots in dense urban environments."  

See also:

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite -3.0% | S&P 500 Index -2.2% | DJIA -2.1%.

$UBER at market close on Friday (10 May 2019) was down -7.6% on its first day of trading after raising $8.1B in its IPO, which valued the company at about $82.4B.
Investor Notes: 

Gundlach warns Bear Market just getting started, "better than 50% chance"--China-US Trade Talks Collapse. China reportedly backtracked on almost all aspects of U.S. trade deal.

Warren Buffett calls the U.S. stock market “ridiculously cheap” (if interest rates stay at these low levels)--"Fed Model" indicates U.S. stocks are "cheap" relative to U.S. Treasury bonds--here’s the math: The spread between the S&P 500’s earnings yield -- a proxy for how much equities “pay” shareholders -- and the 10-year Treasury yield currently sits at 2.9 percentage points. (The wider it is, the cheaper are stocks.) While that difference began to expand significantly in December of last year and has come in a bit since, strip out the last five months and the relative payout of stocks over bonds is the highest since 2016. Also note Buffett's most recent annual letter (pdf):
“the annual change in Berkshire’s book value – which makes its farewell appearance on page 2 – is a metric that has lost the relevance it once had.
Europe: the Unbreakable, Unsustainable Eurozone--when the downturn happens, as it eventually will, the unsustainable will hit the unbreakable--ft.com. The EU sits between a rock and a hard place--politically unsustainable--fnlondon.com. Maybe Europe Can’t Recover From the Financial Crisis--The European Union’s flaws, cultural fragmentation and falling birth rates look like a formula for decline and there are number of signs that this pessimistic scenario will come to pass--Noah Smith in bloomberg.comHow Russia contaminated $2.7 billion of oil exports to Europe--contaminated oil found in Belarus, Poland, Germany, Ukraine and the Baltic port of Ust Luga, Druzhba network.

Someone Tell Theresa May and Parliament--“The Brexit horse has bolted”--UK banks told Reuters they would not reverse changes already made in preparation for Brexit, even if it was scrapped in a second referendum, nor would they financially support any future “Remain” or “Leave” campaigns. The banks have already transferred some client assets to new European Union legal entities, and moved about 2,000 jobs from London to offices in Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid, thereby reducing costs of doing business in expensive London, and 'enhancing' the appeal of British banks to EU clients outside the UK. Instead, the bankers indicated they would continue to focus on future-proofing their businesses, updating technology, and expanding into new markets.

China VC: Sequoia Capital China, a widely viewed bellwether for Chinese tech investment, reportedly will lay off as much as 20 percent of its investment staff due to the slowdown in China's  tech sector.

Investors Beware the False Narratives:
"We make up stories in our minds and then against all evidence, defend them tooth and nail. Understanding why we do this is the key to discovering truth and making wiser decisions"--fs.blog

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Google: transparency, choice and control in digital advertising--new protections and controls in Chrome--blog.google.

Amazon's new Blink XT2 smart camera cheaper than the original. AlsoWhy Amazon (video) is gobbling up failed malls in the U.S.

YouTube says it will make all of its original content free this fall, a strategy that its CBO says is in opposition to what other media companies are doing--Variety.com.

Verizon Looks to Unload Tumblr Blogging Site--another Marissa Mayer failed 'bright idea.' --
$VZ trying to steady a media business that has struggled to meet revenue targets.--wsj.com.

Qualcomm's Modems Are Faster And Better--seekingalpha.com. See also Intel's failure in 5G smartphone modems was just another point in a string of failures that will cost the company around $3 billion in revenues starting in 2020 ... "Avoid the stock as 2020 revenue estimates of $72 billion need to be cut"--seekingalpha.com.

Apple: EU to launch formal antitrust investigation into Apple in the next few weeks after Spotify accused the iPhone maker of “tilting the playing field to disadvantage competitors”--ft.com. See also
How the Apple Store Lost Its Luster--in interviews, current and former employees say brand building became more important than serving shoppers--bloomberg.com.

Dutch company ASML Granted Final Judgment by US Court Against XTAL for theft of trade secrets - $845 Million Awarded Will Be Uncollectible, But ASML Will Own XTAL IP--asml.com.

Less to lose? Germany's poorer East embraces tech revolution--reuters.com.

EU's Tusk warns of risks in rise of U.S. tech giants Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon: the European Union has been a leader in controlling how social media handle users' personal data, with rules known as GDPR introduced in May, 2018, giving regulators the power to impose fines of up to 4% of global revenues for violations.

Newspapers dying--for every reporter now, there are six PR workers, the US Census reports, and the number of PR flacks will continue rising, says Labor Department--bloomberg.com.

Personal tech: Google Pixel 3a: The $399 'Game Changing' Smartphone. Google also announced that this year and forward, all new Chromebook devices will be Linux ready--zdnet.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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2018-09-10

Warren Buffett On The 2008 Financial Crisis (video) & Investing

Warren Buffett Explains the 2008 Financial Crisis

A decade after the financial crisis, billionaire investor Warren Buffett explains what was behind the 2008 mayhem, what we can do to limit the damage and opportunities missed last time. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 6, 2018.

Why Warren Buffett Said No to Lehman and AIG in 2008

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is famous on Wall Street for having the cash to make deals happen, even during a crisis. But in 2008, he turned down both Lehman Brothers and AIG when they asked for help. In an interview with WSJ, he explained why. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 7, 2018.

Warren Buffett's famous advice to investors and his wife's trustee:
"Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power. I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.
"That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better longterm results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.
"If “investors” frenetically bought and sold farmland to each other, neither the yields nor prices of their crops would be increased. The only consequence of such behavior would be decreases in the overall earnings realized by the farm-owning population because of the substantial costs it would incur as it sought advice and switched properties. Nevertheless, both individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions. The resulting frictional costs can be huge and, for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit. So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm.
"My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s [VFIAX or VFINX].) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers."--Warren Buffett, February 28, 2014 (pdf) (emphasis and  links added)
The S&P 500 Index is a major and widely-followed stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ, and meeting other requirements. The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index, associated with many ticker symbols, such as: .INX and $SPX, depending on the market or website.
S&P 500

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2017-09-23

Tech Review | Apple $AAPL Special Event Postpartum Depression?

Tech Review (TR 2017-09-23)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Apple $AAPL Special Event Postpartum Depression? 2) Google & HTC: Everyone Wants To Make A High-end Phone, 3) Cord-Cutting Trends--Cable Is For Old People, 4) Investing: Mass Psychology, Diversification, Gurus, US$, Buffett,  5) ICYMI Tech News.

1) Apple $AAPL Special Event Postpartum Depression?
 Apple Special Event. September 12, 2017.
NASDAQ:AAPL:
 $AAPL

2) Everyone Wants To Make A High-End Phone: Google & HTC
 Pixel Phone
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG, GOOGL) and HTC Corporation (TWSE: 2489"announced a definitive agreement under which certain HTC employees – many of whom are already working with Google to develop Pixel smartphones – will join Google. HTC will receive US$1.1 billion in cash from Google as part of the transaction. Separately, Google will receive a non-exclusive license for HTC intellectual property (IP) ... this agreement also represents a significant investment by Google in Taiwan as a key innovation and technology hub ... expected to close by early 2018."--HTC.com, 21 Sep 2017.--About 2,000 HTC staffers to join Google; HTC to continue making its own smartphones, including a new flagship model.

See also: Android zero-touch enrollment: seamless and secure enterprise deployment | blog.google: carrier partners who plan to offer zero-touch: USA: Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile; Europe: BT, Deutsche Telekom; Asia-Pacific: Softbank, Telstra.

3) Cord-Cutting Trends--Cable Is For Old People: 
CordCutter
Cord Cutters to Top 22 Million in U.S. by End of 2017 (Study) | Variety.com: "By 2021, the number of cord-cutters will nearly equal the number of people who have never had pay TV — a total of 81 million U.S. adults." See also Cable News Is Almost Exclusively Watched by Old People.
"The last couple of years, a few friends pulled the plug on cable/satellite ... my daughter Katie ditched the corded life, as have many (most?) of her Millennial friends. They have been doing the "streaming thing," first with subscription models such as Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) Prime, and then with expanded services offering network bundles: Sling TV, PlayStation Vue, Hulu with Live TV, YouTube TV, etc. Those who want to add a little "premium" to their lives can get stand-alone services from HBO or Showtime. (A basic guide to streaming options can be found on the Consumer Reports free site.)."--SeekingAlpha.com.  
Editor's note: best option for many may be either, or both, an Amazon Prime subscription (using an Amazon Fire TV Stick which will give you access to Amazon Prime content as well as Netflix (subscription), HBO and much more via Amazon Channels, AND/OR a Google Chromecast to access the free and Ã  la carte and subscription content available from the internet and via Google Play (including apps). Total one-time hardware cost less than $75.00 (Fire Stick $39.99 + Chromecast $35). Put a little money into a quality screen, good internet connection (including router and modem), and pay for only the content you really want.

4) Investing
"Investing, in other words, is an exercise in mass psychology. I’ve spent decades studying it, and believe that one way to predict future market moves is to sort through the narratives that sweep through the population and influence decisions on whether to buy or sell. Such an analysis is a matter of art as much as science, however. Getting it right is crucial in the United States right now, because stock market valuations are already high enough to be worrisome."--Robert J.Shiller, Sept 15, 2017, NYTimes.com.

Separating the Dos From the Don'ts of Investing | Bloomberg.comDiversification is the idea of reducing specific risk in your portfolio.

Investment GurusBeware of investing advice from market gurus | usatoday.com"... the ninth anniversary of Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy and the subsequent collapse of our country’s financial system. One of the most important lessons we can learn is that no one — not even the experts — saw it coming."

US$--The Demise of the U.S. Dollar? Don't Hold Your Breath--"The USD is still the dominant reserve currency, despite decades of diversification. Global reserves (allocated and unallocated) are over $12 trillion. Note that China's RMB doesn't even show up in allocated reserves--it's a non-player because it's pegged to the USD. Why hold RMB when the peg can be changed at will? It's lower risk to just hold USD ... the problem of replacing the USD in all its roles is that no other issuer has a large enough economy and is willing to shoulder the risks and burdens of issuing a free-floating currency in sufficient size to meet global demands."--Charles Hugh Smith

Warren Buffett, The Sage of Omaha: “Whenever I hear people talk pessimistically about this country (U.S.), I think they’re out of their mind ... It has been 241 years since Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration of Independence ... Being short America has been a loser’s game. I predict to you it will continue to be a loser’s game.” Buffett said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to be “over 1 million” in 100 years, up from Tuesday’s close of 22,370.80, given where the index was roughly a century ago.--Buffett speaking this week in New York.


5) ICYMI Tech News:

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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