Fed Rate Hike, Brexit, Dutch & French Elections: The Path Forward (videos)

Fed's Rate Path in Focus Now That March Is Certain

Video above published Mar 14, 2017, by Bloomberg.com:  The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on Tuesday with markets 100 percent convinced the Fed will raise interest rates. Now the question becomes, how the Fed's rate path may progress from here. Bloomberg's Matthew Boesler is joined by Greg Peters, senior portfolio manager at PGIM, on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

U.K.'s May Says Brexit Bill Becomes Law in 'Coming Days'

Video above published Mar 14, 2017, by Bloomberg.com: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced in a statement before the House of Commons that she is on track to trigger Brexit by the end of the month and her Brexit bill will become law within the "coming days."

Dutch Election: Why It Matters

Video above published on Mar 13, 2017: After Brexit and Donald Trump, will the Netherlands be next to upset the status quo? The Dutch are heading to the polls on March 15, and the election is seen as an important test for the future of the European Union. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina reports.

See also: Netherlands Vote Wednesday: Analyzing the Turkey Effect; How Many Parties Will Take to Form A Coalition? | MishTalk: "Don’t Hold Your Breath"

UPDATE 15 Mar 2017: exit polls show Rutte controlling 31 seats, 10 fewer than his party won in the 2012, while 3 parties each won 19: pro-EU center party D66, Christian Democrat CDA, and Wilders' Party for Freedom. Rutte has said he would not rule with Wilders, so the question becomes how he can acquire the necessary 75-seat coalition, which may take months of talks before a new government can be formed.

Meanwhile the latest news about the coming French election: French presidential candidate Francois Fillon charged with misuse of public funds (video) one day before his scheduled questioning in the matter, reports Bloomberg's Mark Barton on "Bloomberg Markets."

Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally | Bloomberg.com: "Ethan Harris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global economist in New York. Like the fable of the boy who cried wolf, Harris says pessimistic forecasters have so badly over-estimated the consequences of big events -- the rolling European debt crisis since 2010, the U.S. debt-ceiling standoff in 2011, Brexit in 2016 -- that traders have become conditioned to ignore them."

"Shiller says when markets are as buoyant as they are now, resisting the urge to pile in is hard regardless of what else might be happening in society. “I was tempted to do it, too,” he says. “Trump keeps talking about a new spirit for America and so you could (A) believe that or (B) you could believe that other investors believe that.” On whether stocks are nearing a top, Shiller can’t say with any certainty. He’s loathe to make short-term forecasts."

Caveat Emptor!

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Dow Heading for 20,000, Stocks Rise, Gold Falls Ahead of Fed Rate Hike

Blue-chip index nears milestone as tech joins the Trump rally--Traders assign 100% odds to a Fed rate hike on Wednesday:

DJIA 3-month chart (source: google.com)

S&P500 Index (source: google.com)

Fed Interest Rate Hike Bad News For China? At the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, an interest rate hike of 0.25% is expected. This rate hike will be only the second increase by the Federal Reserve in 10 years (the first increase took place December 2015). This may have ramifications on emerging markets in general and China in particular which faces an economic slowdown. A U.S. interest rate increase will likely increase capital outflows and generate additional growth headwinds for China. 

Headlines Tuesday leading up to the expected Fed Rate Hike:

Dow Heads for 20,000 as Stocks Rise, Gold Falls: "Global stocks advanced, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average within 50 points of 20,000 on speculation that the Federal Reserve’s expected rate increase is a signal of confidence that the economy is strengthening. The dollar and Treasuries were little changed. IBM Corp. and Intel Corp. led gains in the blue-chip index as it heads for a fresh record and the round-number milestone ... Its relative-strength index stood at the highest level in two decades ..."--Bloomberg.com

IBM Lays Out Plans to Hire 25,000 in U.S. Ahead of Trump Meeting: "IBM Chief Executive Officer Ginni Rometty said she plans to hire about 25,000 people in the U.S. and invest $1 billion over the next four years, laying out her vision for filling technology jobs in America on the eve of a meeting of industry leaders with President-elect Donald Trump. Rometty, who is on Trump’s advisory panel of business leaders, will join Facebook Inc.’s Sheryl Sandberg, Amazon.com Inc.’s Jeff Bezos and Alphabet Inc.’s Larry Page and Eric Schmidt at a summit with Trump Wednesday in New York that is said to focus on jobs."--Bloomberg.com

Small Business Owners' Optimism Skyrockets Following Trump Victory: "The November reading of the National Federation of Independent Businesses' small business optimism index jumped to 98.4 from 94.9 — its sharpest surge since 2009 — with all of the increase in sentiment coming after the U.S. elections held on Nov. 8."--Bloomberg.com

After talking with Trump, Bill Gates likens president-elect to JFK: "... in the same way President Kennedy talked about the space mission and got the country behind that, I think whether it's education or stopping epidemics ... [or] in this energy space, there can be a very upbeat message that [Trump's] administration [is] going to organize things, get rid of regulatory barriers, and have American leadership through innovation ... Of course, my whole career has been along those lines. And he was interested in listening to that. And I'm sure there will be further conversation."--Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates after recently speaking with Trump--CNBC.com.

"Allegations of Hacking Election Are Baseless" Say High-Level American Intelligence Officials: "The various ways in which usually anonymous spokespeople for U.S. intelligence agencies are equivocating – saying things like “our best guess” or “our opinion” or “our estimate” etc. – shows that the emails alleged to have been “hacked” cannot be traced across the network. Given NSA’s extensive trace capability, we conclude that DNC and HRC servers alleged to have been hacked were, in fact, not hacked."--WashingtonsBlog.com

Obama Says No Evidence that Russia Tampered with Votes in Election: During an interview with the Daily Show’s Trevor Noah, Obama downplayed the hack of a private email account of Clinton campaign chief John Podesta. "We were frankly more concerned in the run up to the election to the possibilities of vote tampering, which we did not see evidence of, and we’re confident that we can guard against ... None of this should be a big surprise,” Obama said, “Russia trying to influence our elections dates back to the Soviet Union.” Obama dismissed the hack and the leaked emails as “not very interesting” and lacking “explosive” revelations. He puzzled as to why it was an “obsession” by the news media despite the knowledge that the Russians were responsible.--Breitbart.com.

Trump's selection of  Tillerson lifts hope of US rapprochement in Moscow: "Sergei Karaganov, one of Russia's most senior foreign policy hands, says the difference is that Tillerson is a hard-nosed pragmatist who [as Secretary of State] will focus on getting things done, and leave aside the many political and philosophical issues where Russia and the US will never agree. Like many in Moscow's upper circles, Mr. Karaganov has met Tillerson and says that his ratification would be a signal that genuine and lasting detente between the two powers is a real possibility."--CSMonitor.com

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Milton Berg: Commodities May Sink 20% More, Equities in Bear Market

Now that the FED has raised interest rates for the first time since 2006, what's next? Milton Berg and Sam Zell (see further below) have their own opinions--

Milton Berg: Commodities May Sink 20% or More - MB Advisors CEO Milton Berg discusses commodities, equities, and his investment strategy. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›" (published Nov 30, 2015). Among the many opinions voiced by Berg in the video above: the bear market in commodities began in 2011 and has more to run according to Milton Berg--another 1/3 to go? And equities (US and globally) entered a bear market in 2015 according to Berg. He recommends (at present) holding cash (US Dollar). Milton Berg is Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at MB Advisors, a boutique consulting and research firm offering investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. The core focus of MB's work is historical market analysis, with a strong technical perspective. Domain name: miltonberg.com

Meanwhile, Sam Zell has "recession expectations"--within the next 12 months-- 

Sam Zell: Fed Rate Hike is Six-Eight Months Too Late - Sam Zell, chairman at Equity Group Investments, discusses a delayed rate hike from the Federal Reserve and his expectations for a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›." - Bloomberg, December 16, 2015

See also on Domain Mondo:

• FED FOMC Rate Hike, Press Conference Video Replay, Transcript
• Return to Normality? FED Set To Raise Rates for First Time Since 2006

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Downside of FED Rate Hike: Dollar Strength vs Global Growth (videos)

Dollar strength destroying global growth | FT Markets - The strong dollar is destroying global growth, says Michael Power, strategist with Investec Asset Management. He explains to EM Squared editor Jonathan Wheatley why the IMF's way of measuring growth using purchasing power parity is out of touch with the real economy. Published on Nov 18, 2015

Domain name: investecassetmanagement.com



Emerging currency pressures | Authers' Note - John Authers on emerging market currencies as everyone prepares for higher rates from the Federal Reserve. [Published Dec 10, 2015, by the Financial Times.]

US Federal Reserve FOMC is expected to announce its decision Wednesday, December 16, 2015. Last week traders were placing an 80 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates (which has not happened since June 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg). Even Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of LA-based DoubleLine Capital (doubleline.com), which has about $80 billion under management, indicated during a webcast last Tuesday that the US Federal Reserve FOMC appears “hell-bent” on a rate hike despite weak economic signals such as gross domestic product.

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