Showing posts with label market forecasts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market forecasts. Show all posts
2015-02-03
Barry Ritholtz: Apple Proves You Should Not Trust Analysts (video)
Barry Ritholtz: Apple Proves You Should Not Trust Pundits a/k/a Analysts (video above)
domain name: apple.com
see for cross-reference:
Domain Mondo | New gTLD Domains, Market Forecasts, Analysts, Monkeys: "One of the collective fallacies our culture operates under is the delusion that the market is some kind of astute forecasting machine. It is not — it represents the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked monkeys. That millions of slightly clever, pants wearing primates can combine their collective ignorance, their intellectual foibles, biases and false beliefs somehow into something resembling intelligence was one of the false beliefs of the era. Unfortunately, this is a condition the monkeys are prone towards....”--Barry Ritholtz (emphasis added)
and for further reference re: new gTLD domain names--
"... Second most surprising [in 2014] was the slower uptake of new gTLD SLD's [new generic top-level domain names]... we were surprised that the consuming public and other registrars were not standing there eagerly to take the baton and run forward with the same zeal that it took us to get that baton to them... " -- Frank Schilling (emphasis added; source: dnjournal.com)
Follow @DomainMondo
2014-10-06
Dear Domainers, 3 Year Market Forecasts On New gTLDs Are Worthless
Want to be taken for an easy mark? Trot out your "strategy" as a domain name "investor" based on some analyst's 3-year market forecast, like the one referenced in yesterday's post--by the way there are hundreds, if not thousands, of analysts just like him out there--and their 3 year market forecasts? All worthless. Stocks, bonds, new gTLDs, whatever. Note that I am talking about "market forecasts," not a report on a specific company based on hard performance data, management disclosures and projections, and other relevant data like this.
Why are market forecasts worthless? As pointed out yesterday, there are too many variables and biases to make an accurate overall market forecast one year out, much less three years out. Second, forecasters, as a group, suffer from optimism bias (as almost everyone does to some degree)--but in the case of analysts, they have an even stronger incentive to go wrong on the upside:
"If you're a bear and you're right, you're respected. If you're a bear and you're wrong, you're fired." (source: Wall Street Journal)
In other words, analysts produce rosy, upside-biased market forecasts as a matter of career survival, whether they are even conscious of it, or acknowledge it. For example, as a group, forecasters have never forecast a drop in stocks since year 2000 (source: Wall Street Journal, supra).
What's even more amazing is that people put any credence in these forecasts--some are even gullible enough to pay for this kind of misinformation.
Am I surprised that increasingly desperate new gTLD registry operators are trotting out worthless "market forecasts" and getting domainer bloggers to publish this stuff as "authoritative?" No, they are in the business of separating you from your money by selling you their mostly worthless domain names, and as most new gTLDs have pathetic domain name sales numbers (some even having near zero growth), I expect to see more of the same in the future. You should too.
Caveat Emptor!
For further reading:
Caveat Emptor!
For further reading:
Economic/Market Predictions: Still Terrible | The Big Picture
William Sherden, author of “The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.” Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter - MarketWatch
Follow @DomainMondo
William Sherden, author of “The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.” Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter - MarketWatch
Follow @DomainMondo
2014-10-05
New gTLD Domains, Market Forecasts, Analysts, Monkeys
"One of ICANN's key commitments is to promote competition in the domain name market" (source: icann.org)
Headline: Analyst: new TLDs to hit $500 million in 3 years
"One of the collective fallacies our culture operates under is the delusion that the market is some kind of astute forecasting machine. It is not — it represents the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked monkeys. That millions of slightly clever, pants wearing primates can combine their collective ignorance, their intellectual foibles, biases and false beliefs somehow into something resembling intelligence was one of the false beliefs of the era. Unfortunately, this is a condition the monkeys are prone towards....” (source: How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics? )
Headline: Analyst: new TLDs to hit $500 million in 3 years
"One of the collective fallacies our culture operates under is the delusion that the market is some kind of astute forecasting machine. It is not — it represents the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked monkeys. That millions of slightly clever, pants wearing primates can combine their collective ignorance, their intellectual foibles, biases and false beliefs somehow into something resembling intelligence was one of the false beliefs of the era. Unfortunately, this is a condition the monkeys are prone towards....” (source: How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics? )
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)