Scott Galloway: Wall Street is Wrong About Google and Amazon:
NYU Stern Marketing Professor Scott Galloway presents the week's biggest winners and losers in digital:
Loser: Wall Street analysts, who missed the point on both Google's revenue-per-click news and Amazon's earnings call.
Winner: Workers in the gig economy. A UK ruling considers Uber drivers employees, rather than contractors.
Video above published November 17, 2016, by L2inc.com.
YouTube auto-generated transcript:
0:02 A loser, again: Wall Street analysts, who missed the point on Google's 11% year-on-year decline on revenue per click.
0:09 Analysts are focusing on the fact that search-based ads have a lower value on mobile then on desktop.
0:14 However, what they missed is that Google managed to drop the price of its ads without losing revenue.
0:20 Peter Drucker, the father of modern management, summed it up as "Do not worship at the altar of high margins."
0:25 What does that mean?
0:26 It means any company that wants to compete with Google has to do so now recognizing that Google gets bigger and bigger and keeps lowering their prices.
0:34 A winner: Amazon.
0:35 What did every analyst miss in their over-reaction to Amazon's earnings call?
0:40 When Amazon announces a loss, it means they are winning.
0:44 What happened in Q2 when they announced record earnings?
0:46 That means someone at Amazon f*d up, and they fixed it.
0:50 The Seattle firm has trained investors to replace profits with vision and growth,
0:55 and as a result has an unassailable advantage.
0:59 In 2018, they will become the first trillion dollar market cap company.
1:04 A winner: workers in the gig economy.
1:07 Last week a UK tribunal -
1:08 tribunal is a really f*ing scary word -
1:10 but anyways, a UK tribunal ruled in favor of Uber drivers being regarded as employees versus contractors.
1:17 That makes Uber drivers eligible for benefits and entitled to the national minimum wage.
1:22 We as a society have decided there are going to be winners and losers.
1:26 We've opted for consumers as number one, shareholders a close number two and workers a distant third.
1:31 Sorry about that.
1:33 Where does that leave society?
1:35 With a lot of people at home during the workday who sit on a really nice couch with a very powerful phone and an enormous screen.
1:41 Gee, that sounds like fun.
1:43 Winners: the team here at L2 marking our 100th episode, and the dozens and dozens of fans we have built out here.
1:52 This week does in fact mark our 100th episode.
1:54 Here's a look at the most frequently named winners and losers.
1:57 The list illustrates where we think the digital economy is headed, led by companies that deftly use technology to refine their product with every user interaction.
2:05 The losers? Those with their heads stuck in the sand, who still pay for audiences and are not nimble enough to evolve.
2:11 Our best joke in two years? Here are our candidates …
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DISCLAIMER
Showing posts with label analysts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysts. Show all posts
2016-02-08
What Happened to LinkedIn? $LNKD Stock Down 58% Since Nov 10
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| LinkedIn 1-year stock chart (NYSE:LNKD) (source: google.com) |
"We will now end the call with our outlook for the first quarter and full year. For the first quarter, we expect: revenue of approximately $820 million, representing 29% percent growth. Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $190 million, a 23% margin. And Non-GAAP EPS of approximately $0.55 per share. For the full year, we expect: Revenue between $3.6 billion and $3.65 billion, a range of 20% to 22% year-over-year growth. This includes a 2% FX headwind. It also incorporates removing $50 million of potential Bizo revenue contribution in 2016. Adjusted EBITDA of between $950 million and $975 million, a 27% margin at the midpoint. And non-GAAP EPS of approximately $3.05 to $3.20 per share." --LinkedIn (LNKD) Jeffrey Weiner on Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
So what's wrong? LinkedIn: Why So Surprised At The Drop? | Seeking Alpha: "... the investment community is starting to realize that the 30%+ growth rates are gone and that the lower growth does not support the current stock price. Hence the correction. LinkedIn is not Facebook (FB) ... Growth is slower and margins are lower."
Stocks in the whole tech sector have seen losses this year, as investors continue to closely examine "Internet valuations." See: Tech-stock wreck destroys $529B this year and Bye-bye Internet bubble 2.0 (USA Today). There are, of course, other views of what happened to LinkedIn, one of which you can read here and here.
Domain: LinkedIn.com
Our CEO Jeff Weiner & CFO Steve Sordello will be co-hosting our Q4 2015 earnings call at 2pm PT today. Join us. https://t.co/W6IvALcFdy— LinkedIn (@LinkedIn) February 4, 2016
Tweets about $LNKD
Tweets about $LNKD
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DISCLAIMER
2016-01-13
Apple, Smartphones, Market Share, iPhone Sales, $AAPL Bad News?
 |
| Apple 1-year stock chart (NASDAQ:AAPL) (source: google.com) |
source: Statista
3. Bad News for Apple investors? According to a research note published by Morgan Stanley analysts, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) may only sell 218 million iPhones in fiscal 2016, which would be equivalent to a 5.7 percent drop compared to the fiscal year that ended in September:
source: Statista
- Principal domain name: apple.com
- Investor Relations: investor.apple.com
- Apple, iPhone Vulnerability, Product Concentration, $AAPL Unsustainability
- Worldwide Smartphone Marketshare by Geography, OS, 2015-2019
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DISCLAIMER
2015-02-03
Barry Ritholtz: Apple Proves You Should Not Trust Analysts (video)
Barry Ritholtz: Apple Proves You Should Not Trust Pundits a/k/a Analysts (video above)
domain name: apple.com
see for cross-reference:
Domain Mondo | New gTLD Domains, Market Forecasts, Analysts, Monkeys: "One of the collective fallacies our culture operates under is the delusion that the market is some kind of astute forecasting machine. It is not — it represents the collective wisdom of 10 million panicked monkeys. That millions of slightly clever, pants wearing primates can combine their collective ignorance, their intellectual foibles, biases and false beliefs somehow into something resembling intelligence was one of the false beliefs of the era. Unfortunately, this is a condition the monkeys are prone towards....”--Barry Ritholtz (emphasis added)
and for further reference re: new gTLD domain names--
"... Second most surprising [in 2014] was the slower uptake of new gTLD SLD's [new generic top-level domain names]... we were surprised that the consuming public and other registrars were not standing there eagerly to take the baton and run forward with the same zeal that it took us to get that baton to them... " -- Frank Schilling (emphasis added; source: dnjournal.com)
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2014-10-06
Dear Domainers, 3 Year Market Forecasts On New gTLDs Are Worthless
Want to be taken for an easy mark? Trot out your "strategy" as a domain name "investor" based on some analyst's 3-year market forecast, like the one referenced in yesterday's post--by the way there are hundreds, if not thousands, of analysts just like him out there--and their 3 year market forecasts? All worthless. Stocks, bonds, new gTLDs, whatever. Note that I am talking about "market forecasts," not a report on a specific company based on hard performance data, management disclosures and projections, and other relevant data like this.
Why are market forecasts worthless? As pointed out yesterday, there are too many variables and biases to make an accurate overall market forecast one year out, much less three years out. Second, forecasters, as a group, suffer from optimism bias (as almost everyone does to some degree)--but in the case of analysts, they have an even stronger incentive to go wrong on the upside:
"If you're a bear and you're right, you're respected. If you're a bear and you're wrong, you're fired." (source: Wall Street Journal)
In other words, analysts produce rosy, upside-biased market forecasts as a matter of career survival, whether they are even conscious of it, or acknowledge it. For example, as a group, forecasters have never forecast a drop in stocks since year 2000 (source: Wall Street Journal, supra).
What's even more amazing is that people put any credence in these forecasts--some are even gullible enough to pay for this kind of misinformation.
Am I surprised that increasingly desperate new gTLD registry operators are trotting out worthless "market forecasts" and getting domainer bloggers to publish this stuff as "authoritative?" No, they are in the business of separating you from your money by selling you their mostly worthless domain names, and as most new gTLDs have pathetic domain name sales numbers (some even having near zero growth), I expect to see more of the same in the future. You should too.
Caveat Emptor!
For further reading:
Caveat Emptor!
For further reading:
Economic/Market Predictions: Still Terrible | The Big Picture
William Sherden, author of “The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.” Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter - MarketWatch
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William Sherden, author of “The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions.” Sherden decided to test the accuracy of leading forecasters over a multidecade period. His conclusion: Forecasters stink.
Dow 17,000? Main Street lambs led to the slaughter - MarketWatch
Follow @DomainMondo
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