Showing posts with label migrants. Show all posts
Showing posts with label migrants. Show all posts

2017-05-05

French Voters Skeptical of Macron & Le Pen: Is France "Done"?

FRANCE 24 Live – International Breaking News & Top stories - 24/7 stream

Watch election coverage above as France votes Sunday, May 7, 2017, for a new President and neither of the two runoff candidates, Macron and Le Pen, are representing a major French party. What's likely to happen? Video courtesy of France24.com.

UPDATE May 7, 2017 (rev. May 8): Macron wins runoff with low voter turnout and historic high numbers of voters voting blank or spoiled ballots--out of France's reported 51 million registered voters, 25.4% of registered voters did not vote, 11.4% of registered voters voted a spoiled or blank ballot, and the remaining voters split between Macron 66% and Le Pen 34%--hence Macron won by getting only 20.75 million (updated) votes. Legislative elections in France are scheduled to take place on 3, 10-11 June 2017 and 17-18 June 2017 to elect the 577 members of the 15th National Assembly of the French Fifth Republic. See also: Many French voters yet to be convinced by Macron | Reuters.com 8 May 2017.

Analysis and opinion (as of May 5, 2017):

First, the situation in France may be a lot worse than many would have you believe--
Some media, including Reuters.com, have reported that French voters are skeptical and do not think either Macron or Le Pen have answers on either unemployment or security (terrorism). Reportedly 45 percent of voters believe neither Macron nor Le Pen would put an end to unemployment (unemployment has for years been close to 10 percent in France), and 36 percent of voters say neither candidate is able to protect France from terrorist attacks. France has been under a state of emergency since 2015 and more than 230 people have been killed in terrorist attacks over the past two years. Under this scenario, the runoff vote on Sunday is a "no-win election" for the French people.
Second, here's what's likely to happen: the peculiar Emmanuel Macron will win accompanied by pro-EU elites and establishment media cheering, mistakenly believing "populism is over." Then the rot will continue while Macron somehow tries to govern, though you won't notice much reporting on this if you are only following the establishment media "narratives."

Look at the infographic below (thousands of millionaires flee France). France has a problem. Is it because, like most of Europe, it is trapped in a failed experimental monetary system (the "euro"--monetary union without fiscal union does not work), apparently resigned to high unemployment, and overwhelmed by chaotic out-of-control immigration, and an inability to absorb or culturally integrate its own growing and dissatisfied Muslim minorities? Expect more trouble ahead. This is far from over. Get out if, and while, you can. The Brexiteers have got it right. More will be revealed. See: Euro Outlook for 2017 | Fortune.com: "Markets sense that the system is not viable in the long run—speculators attack when they smell blood. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s assertion that he will do “whatever it takes” has worked wonders—for longer than anyone expected. But it is a confidence trick: It works only because market participants believe it will work."

Third, if you're doing a deal in Europe and your counterparts will not agree to U.S. law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, why would you not insist on English law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, and close it in London? Otherwise, you too could end up "trapped."

All of the above has ramifications for global markets and investors, and the shift in global power from West to East. Caveat Emptor.

Follow the money--thousands of millionaires flee France--

Millionaire Migrants? Countries That Rich People Are Flocking To and From:
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

See also on Domain Mondo: The French Election & Global Markets, Italy A Threat to the Euro (videos) (April 21, 2017)

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2016-07-05

Beyond Brexit: Four Forces Shaping the Future of Europe (video)

Four Forces Shaping the Future of Europe:

The United Kingdom has become the first country to vote to leave the modern European Union (EU), but the debate over Europe and the Union is far from over. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina explains four forces that will determine the future of the EU. Published June 24, 2016
  1. Euroscepticism
  2. Economic Instability
  3. The Migrant Crisis
  4. Terrorism
Even before the UK "Brexit vote" on June 23, 2016, there was much "Euroskepticism" in the EU:
Pew Research Center survey conducted in 10 EU nations
among 10,491 respondents from April 4 to May 12, 2016 

See Euroskepticism Beyond Brexit: Significant opposition in key European countries to an ever closer EU, Pew Research Center release, June 7, 2016 (pdf).  The 10 countries (see list in Chart above) included in the survey account for 80% of the EU-28 population and 82% of the EU’s GDP. A median of 70% in the nine EU nations surveyed outside the UK, "believe it would be bad for the EU if the UK decided to depart. Only 16% say it would be a good thing." 

 UPDATE: "... In the UK, it is clear that numerous individuals were concealing their true preferences about Leave vs. Remain. The elite in the UK, and the EU as a whole, mounted a campaign of insult and intimidation. They had no positive message, but engaged in fear-mongering and ad hominem. Any brave soul who put his or her head above the parapet was immediately subjected to a barrage of invective. So many people stayed hunkered down, and concealed their preferences ... This means that the EU is particularly vulnerable to preference falsification at present. It is also acutely vulnerable to a shattering of its brittle structure when those preferences are revealed. For this reason, I would say that the expectation should be that the EU will muddle through, but there is a substantial tail risk that it will shatter into 28 pieces. And when it does, it will not go with a whimper, but a bang."--Brexit: A Case Study in Preference Falsification | StreetwiseProfessor.com

UPDATE: Brexit Aftershocks: 'You're Lying to Us!' | spiegel.de: "... jocularity and nonchalance he otherwise exudes has vanished. Juncker these days is ill-tempered and irascible. After the summit comes to an end, a reporter from Austrian public broadcaster ORF becomes the focus of his frustration. She asks a question about CETA, the already negotiated free-trade agreement with Canada. The day before, Juncker has told European leaders that he would like to enact the treaty without the involvement of national parliaments in EU member states--thus feeding into all the stereotypes out there of an autocratic, elitist Brussels ... Now, the EU is stumbling from crisis to crisis ..."





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