MacroView: Next Three Flash Points for the European Union (video)

The Next Three Flash Points for the European Union

Despite centrist or mainstream wins in elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands, support remains strong for nationalist, anti-immigrant and anti-EU parties across the bloc. Three critical issues could determine the future of the debate over Europe and the union: 1) immigration; 2) Eurozone; 3) defense. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina reports. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 26, 2017.

EU vs Ireland and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)

After over one year, Ireland still hasn't recovered up to €13 billion in illegal benefits from Apple, so we now refer Ireland to EU Court. pic.twitter.com/H1Aemtc7L2

— European Commission (@EU_Commission) October 8, 2017

Brexit: EU vs UK

#Brexit negotiations next week should continue to advance. EU27, EP are united, as I said @Europarl_EN on Tuesday https://t.co/9iK60ji1Oz pic.twitter.com/XeUal9KfUK

— Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) October 6, 2017

ECB Extends Quantitative Easing

We went out onto the streets of Frankfurt to ask people about their concerns over low interest rates and to explain why they are necessary pic.twitter.com/HbQfjUOVSj

— ECB (@ecb) October 4, 2017

See also:

• Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 6-7 September 2017 | ecb.europa.eu: "... the Governing Council decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility would remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and −0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expected the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirmed that the net asset purchases, at the current monthly pace of €60 billion, were intended to run until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary ..."

• European Central Bank To Extend Quantitative Easing? What Will This Do To Other Nations?  | SeekingAlpha.com: "... It seems that there is an underlying rationale for the ECB extending its program of quantitative easing. The underlying rationale seems to be connected with the amount of bad loans that are on the books of eurozone banks ... This means that the Fed’s policy rate may be around 2.00 percent while the policy rates of the ECB continue to be where they are until early 2019. What will this do to exchange rates?..."--Professor John M. Mason

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French Voters Skeptical of Macron & Le Pen: Is France "Done"?

FRANCE 24 Live – International Breaking News & Top stories - 24/7 stream

Watch election coverage above as France votes Sunday, May 7, 2017, for a new President and neither of the two runoff candidates, Macron and Le Pen, are representing a major French party. What's likely to happen? Video courtesy of France24.com.

UPDATE May 7, 2017 (rev. May 8): Macron wins runoff with low voter turnout and historic high numbers of voters voting blank or spoiled ballots--out of France's reported 51 million registered voters, 25.4% of registered voters did not vote, 11.4% of registered voters voted a spoiled or blank ballot, and the remaining voters split between Macron 66% and Le Pen 34%--hence Macron won by getting only 20.75 million (updated) votes. Legislative elections in France are scheduled to take place on 3, 10-11 June 2017 and 17-18 June 2017 to elect the 577 members of the 15th National Assembly of the French Fifth Republic. See also: Many French voters yet to be convinced by Macron | Reuters.com 8 May 2017.

Analysis and opinion (as of May 5, 2017):

First, the situation in France may be a lot worse than many would have you believe--

Some media, including Reuters.com, have reported that French voters are skeptical and do not think either Macron or Le Pen have answers on either unemployment or security (terrorism). Reportedly 45 percent of voters believe neither Macron nor Le Pen would put an end to unemployment (unemployment has for years been close to 10 percent in France), and 36 percent of voters say neither candidate is able to protect France from terrorist attacks. France has been under a state of emergency since 2015 and more than 230 people have been killed in terrorist attacks over the past two years. Under this scenario, the runoff vote on Sunday is a "no-win election" for the French people.

Second, here's what's likely to happen: the peculiar Emmanuel Macron will win accompanied by pro-EU elites and establishment media cheering, mistakenly believing "populism is over." Then the rot will continue while Macron somehow tries to govern, though you won't notice much reporting on this if you are only following the establishment media "narratives."

Look at the infographic below (thousands of millionaires flee France). France has a problem. Is it because, like most of Europe, it is trapped in a failed experimental monetary system (the "euro"--monetary union without fiscal union does not work), apparently resigned to high unemployment, and overwhelmed by chaotic out-of-control immigration, and an inability to absorb or culturally integrate its own growing and dissatisfied Muslim minorities? Expect more trouble ahead. This is far from over. Get out if, and while, you can. The Brexiteers have got it right. More will be revealed. See: Euro Outlook for 2017 | Fortune.com: "Markets sense that the system is not viable in the long run—speculators attack when they smell blood. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s assertion that he will do “whatever it takes” has worked wonders—for longer than anyone expected. But it is a confidence trick: It works only because market participants believe it will work."

Third, if you're doing a deal in Europe and your counterparts will not agree to U.S. law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, why would you not insist on English law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, and close it in London? Otherwise, you too could end up "trapped."

All of the above has ramifications for global markets and investors, and the shift in global power from West to East. Caveat Emptor.

Follow the money--thousands of millionaires flee France--

Millionaire Migrants? Countries That Rich People Are Flocking To and From:

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

See also on Domain Mondo: The French Election & Global Markets, Italy A Threat to the Euro (videos) (April 21, 2017)

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TechReview: Silicon Valley's Pilgrimage to Trump Tower to Meet Trump

Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news:

Feature • Silicon Valley's pilgrimage to Trump Tower in New York City, to meet with President-elect Trump, on Wednesday, December 14, 2016:

Digital Trump: Many Colors | ©2016 John Poole | DomainMondo.com

Tech leaders at the confab included Eric Schmidt and Larry Page (Alphabet/Google), Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Ginni Rometty (IBM), Satya Nadella and Brad Smith (Microsoft), Safra Catz (Oracle), Tim Cook (Apple), Chuck Robbins (Cisco), Brian Krzanich (Intel), Alex Karp (Palantir), Elon Musk (SpaceX and Tesla), and of course, Peter Thiel (entrepreneur and venture capitalist). Besides Trump, persons present from his campaign and transition team included Vice President-elect Pence, Commerce Secretary-nominee Wilbur Ross, Gary Cohn (Trump's selection for Director of the National Economic Council), Reince Priebus (Trump's White House Chief of Staff), Trump adviser Stephen Miller, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner (entrepreneur and Trump's son-in-law), Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Donald Trump, Jr. After introductions (video below), reportedly Jared Kushner kicked off the discussion and many subjects were covered including:

• Job creation;
• China;
• Immigration including the need for H-1B visas for the tech industry;
• Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) education;
• Paid maternity leave;
• Infrastructure needs, including upgrading the electric grid;
• Tax reform to allow repatriation of tech company profits trapped abroad; 
• Alphabet/Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt suggested to Trump that he be the “software president,” after noting governmental information-technology programs were antiquated and unsafe, and needed to be upgraded.

Trump Introductory Remarks With Tech Executives:

Today's tech summit included productive discussions about job creation & economic growth. We're on track to make America first again pic.twitter.com/tFU3ObcB0i

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) December 14, 2016

Here's who sat where during Trump's big meeting with tech leaders https://t.co/ThHMlNlgAJ via @sai

— Jason Miller (@JasonMillerinDC) December 15, 2016

Look who else showed up this week at Trump Tower:

.@BillGates and @JimBrownNFL32 in my Trump Tower office yesterday- two great guys! pic.twitter.com/4PjSOEU5y9

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 14, 2016

• Can Tim Cook's Meeting With Donald Trump Revitalize Apple? - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | SeekingAlpha.com "... Apple has lost market share in nearly all its businesses in Q3 and in many sectors has been losing share for multiple quarters. A meeting between high-tech executives and President-elect Donald Trump ... Apple is considering the production of iPhones in the U.S. to avoid a 45% tariff that was campaign rhetoric from President-Elect Donald Trump. Lucrative tax and regulatory concessions with Apple will follow as an inducement for Cook to move production back to the U.S. ..." See also: Apple: Are You Paying Attention? | SeekingAlpha.com.
• Google extends conservative outreach as Trump calls tech meeting | Reuters.com
• Meanwhile the mainstream media-WaPo-NYTimes obsession about Trump & Putin has consumed Washington DC and beyond with all kinds of crazy conspiracy theories: Reid: FBI has ‘explosive information’ about Trump, Russia | TheHill.com:  "[Democratic U.S. Senator] Reid [of Nevada] has a history of making damning allegations against prominent Republicans without the facts to back them up. In 2012, for instance, Reid memorably took to the floor of the Senate to accuse then-GOP [Presidential] nominee Mitt Romney of not paying any taxes over the previous decade. The allegation turned out to be incorrect, though Reid has refused to apologize." For those who have a genuine interest in why Hillary Clinton lost, read How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election | POLITICO.com.

Other Tech News / Quick Takes:

• Yahoo says one billion accounts exposed in newly discovered security breach | Reuters.com
• Meet Waymo.com, Google's self-driving car company.
• WhatsApp, Skype face tighter constraints under new EU privacy rules | Reuters.com
• HMD’s first new Nokia handset is a $26 feature phone | PRnewswire.com 
• Google launches first developer preview of Android Things, its new IoT platform | TechCrunch.com
• Magic Leap’s Unreal Augmented Reality | TechnologyReview.com: "company’s demonstrations may have been impressive, but they also involved smoke and mirrors"
• Google signs internet deal with Cuba's telecommunications monopoly | Reuters.com

Note: next edition of TechReview will be December 31, 2016

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Stanford GSB Professor David Brady: A Look at the 2016 Elections (video)

"As for Mainstream Media [MSM] bias: Bernie [Sanders] was fortunate to only be blacked out, Soviet style; Trump has zero MSM newspaper endorsements and has been subjected to MSM bias that is laughably ham-handed, reminiscent of old-style Communist "running dogs of Imperialism" propaganda ... With the rise of the Internet and social media, broadcast propaganda is now competing with narrowcast: blogs, Twitter and Facebook enable self-organizing tacit tribes ... with their own networks of communication, narratives and agendas ... In terms of finance and communications, politics as usual--political candidates and narratives mandated by the parties' Ruling Elites and the MSM--is dead. We will all look back in 2026 and wonder why the recognition of this reality took so long."--Charles Hugh Smith

David Brady: A Look at the 2016 Elections:

Whatever your political leanings or anxieties about this year's Presidential election, you will be enlightened after listening to Professor Brady's talk in the video above. He explains what, in his view, is really happening, what makes this election year different than others, not just in the U.S., but in Europe and elsewhere, with humor and insight. 

One caveat: much has already changed (or been revealed) since the video above was recorded on October 14, 2016, as part of the Stanford University Graduate School of Business (Stanford GSB) Fall Reunion/Alumni Weekend.

Topics covered include globalization and immigration. The 2016 Presidential Race has had a polarizing effect on many voters, with the 2 major candidates each having high unfavorable ratings. See, e.g., Clinton’s unfavorable rating hits new high in poll | Trump targets Democratic states in final sprint | MarketWatch.com (Oct. 31, 2016).

New polling indicates voters are shifting in view of the late-breaking Wikileaks disclosures, the FBI re-opening its investigation of Hillary Clinton (email scandal) together with revelations about the Clinton Foundation and its tie-ins ("pay-to-play") with Teneo and Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State. Trump 47.8% now leads Clinton 42.4% in the USC Dornsife / LATimes.com tracking poll as of November 2, 2016.

The YouGov.com poll referenced in Professor Brady's talk, as of November 1, 2016, shows Trump has a clear path to victory (270 electoral votes) by winning YouGov's "toss-up" states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (in all of which Trump narrowly leads or is close according to YouGov). Even without Pennsylvania, Trump could still win by picking up another 10 electoral votes somewhere else, such as Wisconsin. One BIG problem with the YouGov methodology is that it estimates patterns of 2016 voter turnout using the 2012 Obama-Romney general election--which YouGov admits is "a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns" in 2016--many experts say 2016 voter turnout patterns will differ from 2012. See also The U.S. Stock Market Isn’t Going Clinton’s Way | Bloomberg.com Nov. 1, 2016: "S&P 500 down 3.2% since Aug. 8, a good sign for challenger Trump. Market correctly signals outcome 86 percent of time since 1928." 

Just as the Brexit vote was the global macroeconomic event of the first half of 2016, the U.S. Presidential election has the potential to be the global macroeconomic event of the second half of 2016. U.S. voting will conclude the evening of Tuesday, November 8.

Speaker in the video: David Brady
Professor of Political Economy, Stanford GSB 
Davies Family Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution 
Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Domain: gsb.stanford.edu

See also:

• Election 2016: An odd blip or a fundamental shift in American politics? | Bloomberg Government | bgov.com: Professor Brady says. “I can’t tell you based on past experience [what the undecided voters will do] because we’ve never had candidates as unpopular as these [Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump].”
• CNN Chief Jeff Zucker Rips Donna Brazile's 'Disgusting' Dealings With Clinton Campaign | HuffingtonPost.com:  CNN Chief Jeff Zucker blasts Donna Brazile in Tuesday editorial call, describing her interactions with Clinton campaign as “unethical” and “disgusting.”
• That secret Trump-Russia email server link is likely neither secret nor a Trump-Russia link | The WashingtonPost.com: "On Monday night, Slate published a [bogus] lengthy story written by Franklin Foer ... "
• Entrepreneur and VC Peter Thiel speaks at The National Press Club (video)

Unedited auto-generated YouTube.com transcript (pdf) embedded below:

Tweets by StanfordBiz

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UK Prime Minister Theresa May: Brexit & Change Are Coming (videos)

Theresa May: Speech to Conservative Party Conference 2016:

Navigating change in a turbulent world--UK Prime Minister Theresa May: Brexit & Change Are Coming--video published Oct 5, 2016.  The UK PM's closing speech at the Conservative party conference which included a strategic move to lure the working classes and make Britain a "fairer Britain." Speech Transcript (pdf).

Building a country that works for everyone:

Video above published Oct 5, 2016, by the Conservative Party (UK)--Domain: conservatives.com; Twitter handle: @Conservatives.

Tory civil war off the agenda:

A few months ago some were predicting the Conservative party would be thrown into civil war by the Brexit vote. Perhaps it would even have to split. The FT.com's Henry Mance reports from the Tory party conference about why that has not happened. Video published Oct 5, 2016.

City (London's financial centre) calls for clarity on Brexit:

Barclays’ John McFarlane, David Sproul of Deloitte and Ratesetter’s Rhydian Lewis express concern over future access to the EU's single market and skilled labor. Video published Oct 3, 2016. 


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