World Economic Forum, Davos, 2016: Martin Wolf, Economy, Tech (videos)

Martin Wolf on Davos economic outlook | FT Comment - Global growth, stock market volatility dominated discussion - Despite January being one of the most turbulent months on record for markets, delegates at the World Economic Forum are optimistic about the global economy. The FT's Martin Wolf explains why. Published Jan 24, 2016



Davos 2016 – all about tech | FT Comment - Technology companies had a huge presence at this year’s World Economic Forum. FT European technology correspondent Murad Ahmed explains how tech companies were greeted and how the industry was featured at debates in Davos. Published Jan 23, 2016



What did FT writers make of this year's meeting? 'Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution' was the theme of this year's World Economic Forum in Davos. As the meeting came to an end, FT writers provided their verdict on the key issues and highlights. Published Jan 24, 2016

See also on Domain Mondo:

• Disruption: Finance, Banking, Money, Trust, WEF Davos 2016 (video)
• 2016 World Economic Forum LIVE, Twitter Feeds, Video Links

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DISCLAIMER

IANA Transition: ICANN Accountability CCWG Timeline Going Forward

UPDATES: 1. Interview with ICANN CEO and 2. Article by 2 CCWG participants says Congress Should Reject ICANN Transition Proposal unless changes are made--

Above: NPR Interview with ICANN CEO Fadi Chehade (December 21, 2015)
U.S. Prepares To Relinquish Oversight Of Internet To International Body : NPR: "Do you think this will really happen next year? Your group had a meeting in Dublin this fall and came away with some questions about whether this is really on track. ICANN CEO Fadi Chehade: "We are on track, and it seems like we will deliver the final proposal to the U.S. government in January of 2016.""

But see Congress Should Reject ICANN Transition Proposal Unless Significant Changes Are Made (by CCWG-Accountability participants Brett Schaefer & Paul Rosenzweig), December 22, 2015: ".... The NTIA has emphasized over and over again, the U.S. government “has not set any deadline for the transition.” This is the correct perspective. ICANN accountability and insulation from undue government influence is critically important to the future vitality, stability, and openness of the Internet. It is far better to get this process done right than it is to get it done on time."

CCWG-Accountability "Potential" Timeline

Will the ICANN Board be able to forward to the US government (NTIA) a proposal for the IANA Stewardship Transition by the target date January 22, 2016? It appears doubtful based on the status of the work of the Cross Community Working Group on Enhancing ICANN Accountability (CCWG-Accountability).

ICANN's CCWG-Accountability met Tuesday, December 22, 2015, following the close of the comment period on the Third Draft Proposal. Notes, Transcript, and Recording of the meeting are (or will be) posted here.

Here are the highlights:

80 comments to the Third Draft Proposal. Download page here.
4 Chartering Organizations sent in comments (GAC, ALAC, ASO, SSAC). GNSO "aims to have a
consolidated position statement by the middle of January. The GNSO Council will have 2 calls in early January and plans to have a motion by January 14. Most GNSO SGs and Cs have submitted direct comments, but these will be consolidated in early January."

CCWG work going foward:

• Issues will require substance discussions to identify common way forward
• We will focus on easy-to-fix issues as a priority and then focus on complex issues. Draft analysis will help us structure our work. 
• Per our Charter - we will need to consider whether supplemental draft, public comment needed. 
• We should not wait for January 14 (foreseen GNSO submission) to conduct assessment. We already have received a number of submissions from GNSO constituencies. 
• Unrealistic to expect that potential supplemental report will be published by January 7. We will need to consider whether there is a need to increase frequency of calls or need to set up subgroups to address topics.

Action Items/Notes:

• ICANN staff to provide geographic statistics (as to comments made)
• Remind Bruce Tonkin (ICANN Board) of request (re GPI - Global Public Interest) and provide an assessment of Board comments
• Mission, Commitments & Core Values: "we have fundamental divide about potential unintended consequences." ... Different camps: 1) ICANN should not engage in any activity related to content regulation; 2) ICANN must be in a position to do so. How can we reconcile these differences? Suggestion to consider attempt mitigation friction by adding language that limits risk of ICANN exercising monopoly. Where contractory voluntary offers limits. 
• Co-Chairs/Becky Burr to discuss with external counsel whether there are ways to use competition law in trying to mitigate friction.
• Becky Burr to send update to group next week
• Request Advisors' input on GPI
• Add GPI rationale to report
• Steve del Bianco to follow up (Stress Test 18)

Documents:

Milestones.pdf
CCWG Draft Proposal_Annex05_Nov.30.2015.pdf
Stress Test 18.pdf

CCWG Timeline:

• 21 December: Public comment officially closed

• 24 December: Staff to send comments spreadsheet to Co-Chairs

• 26-30 December: Staff to prepare Draft Analysis Report of public comments

• 3 January: Staff to send Draft Analysis Report to Co-Chairs

• 5 January: Staff to obtain Co-Chairs comments and to make final edits to Draft Analysis

• 7 January (probably a later date per CoChair see above) : CoChairs/Rapporteurs to post Draft Analysis Report for CCWG-ACCT review

Next CCWG meeting: Tuesday, 5 January 19:00 - 21:00 UTC | meeting schedule here | online via Adobe Connect (open to silent "observers") icann.adobeconnect.com/accountability/

See also on Domain Mondo: 

• ICANN Accountability, What Is The Global Public Interest (GPI)?
• ICANN Webinars Dec 2, CCWG-Accountability Draft Proposal (slides)
• Caveat ICANN: FIFA Bans Blatter and Platini For Conflict of Interest (video)
• What ICANN CEO Chehade Has Been Up To: WSIS, Wuzhen Initiative

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DISCLAIMER

Caveat Emptor: Neustar MarketShare Acquisition, 2016 $NSR Guidance

Third UPDATE Jan 7, 2016: Will Technology and Domain Name Registry Services Company NeuStar (NYSE: NSR) Go Down Like SunRocket Did Under CEO Lisa Hook's Leadership?

"Her tenure at SunRocket betrays a lack of ethical duty to the company's employees and most of all, the 200,000 subscribers who paid the cost for her failure. It is remarkable that just two years after this highly-publicised failure, she would be assigned the top job managing a large public company with a $1.5B market cap. As to why SunRocket failed, there are a couple of great post-mortems written here, here and here. All seem to suggest the same cause: poor management." (Seeking Alpha, infra)

John Zhang, writer at Seeking Alpha, has penned a new post on NeuStar: NeuStar: CEO's Track Record Reinforces The Bear Case (Seeking Alpha), and asks: "... Was it a coincidence that NeuStar lost their most important contract and the long-held Common Short Codes contract under Lisa Hook's leadership? It's possible, but the evidence of management missteps suggest otherwise. These events signal incompetence at the top, and that the bulk of the responsibility lies with Lisa Hook ... NeuStar submitted a bid so ludicrously high for the NPAC contract that it would have lost out to any other bidder ... We think these are not isolated incidents, but indicative of a larger trend. One could cite more examples of dubious actions, such as canceling the share repurchase programme halfway through to acquire a loss-making entity at rich multiples. (Recall that the $200M buyback was announced on the same day of the contract loss, which artificially propped up the share price). Furthermore, we are perturbed by the lack of disclosure with regard to the change in financial covenants and cancellation of the share repurchase program, which was conveniently excluded from the press release..." Read more at Seeking Alpha. [Disclosure: Zhang is short Neustar]

"Loss of the NPAC contracts on or after September 30, 2016 will have a material impact on our future operating results when compared to our current financial profile.  We expect to lose approximately $500 million of annual revenue and this loss will adversely impact our income from operations and operating margin.  Additionally, this loss may have a disproportionate material negative impact on our operating margin because of the largely fixed and shared cost structure that is designed to support all of our services.  We are unable to quantify the impact on our income from operations and operating margin at this time because the end date of the NPAC contract is uncertain and due to our largely fixed and shared cost structure .... When our seven contracts with North American Portability Management LLC are terminated, the timing of which is uncertain, our revenue and profitability may be materially adversely affected. We cannot be certain whether our contracts to provide local number portability services will be extended beyond September 30, 2016. Once the contracts terminate, our annual revenue will decrease by approximately $500 million. As a result of the uncertain contract end date and due to our cost structure, which is organized by function, the impact of the termination of the contracts on our income from operations is not currently quantifiable. At the time of termination, our revenue and profitability will be dependent upon the success of our remaining business. If we are not able to replace this lost revenue and adjust our operating plans to support our remaining business, our total revenue and profitability may be materially adversely affected." Neustar 10-Q, Oct 29, 2015 (emphasis added)

Second UPDATE: NeuStar:2016 Guidance Makes Little Sense - NeuStar, Inc. (NYSE:NSR) | (Paulo Santos) Seeking Alpha: "... NSR has been delaying the recognition of the loss of this [NAPM] contract for quite long now. This has been the case because there's good reason to believe the said contract represents NSR's entire EBITDA profitability ... NSR isn't yet fully ready to recognize just how much profitability it stands to lose (hint: all of it)... In case anyone has doubts regarding what's happening to this contract, you can always visit NAPM's own website, which includes a tab labeled "LNPA Transition" ... NSR was charging nearly $500 million per year for something which is now being awarded ... for 7 years ($142.9 million per year) … a reflection of the massive margins NSR is realizing on this contract ... Assumptions are supposed to be very likely to happen, not this [2016 guidance] ..." (emphasis added, read more at the link above)

First UPDATE Dec 10, 2015: see Neustar: Management Sets Themselves Up To Fail With 2016 Guidance - NeuStar, Inc. (NYSE:NSR) | Seeking Alpha (John Zhang): "... the odds of Neustar meeting the [2016] guidance is close to zero. Like most companies that try to mislead shareholders, Neustar has hidden a number of extremely questionable assumptions in their guidance figures to artificially inflate the numbers. Furthermore, the shocking non-mention of a change in financial covenants in their press release is worth examining closely, as it shows Neustar's risk of default in 2016 has increased dramatically... Neustar's share price is set up for a temporary boost followed by a drastic decline once the true state of their financials are revealed..." (emphasis added, read more at link above)

--[Note: Original Domain Mondo post, 10 Dec 2015, below]--

Pursuant to a Form 8-K filed with the SEC on December 9, 2015, technology company and domain name registry operator Neustar, Inc. (NYSE:NSR) disclosed it has completed its acquisition of MarketShare Partners LLC for approximately $450 million (using cash, shares, and debt--see further below) and issued 2016 guidance:

"The company [Neustar] expects its 2016 revenue to range from $1.16 billion to $1.20 billion, representing growth of 11% to 15%."

But--Caveat Emptor--

"This [2016] guidance assumes that the company will remain the local number portability administrator for 2016." (emphasis added)

That's a BIG assumption, see previous posts on Domain Mondo:

• Investors Flee Neustar, $NSR Stock Down 19% in Five Trading Days
• Neustar $NSR Shares Tanked Friday After Marketshare Announcement
• Neustar $NSR Will Lose $500 Million Annual Revenue, 80% Downside?

And see on Seeking Alpha:

• NeuStar: Costly Acquisition Strengthens Bear Case
• NeuStar: The Loss Of The NAPM Contract Sees New Disclosure
• Neustar: 80%+ Downside Within 13 Months
• $NSR among S&P 1500 Most Heavily Shorted Stocks | Seeking Alpha

Further Caveat: Investors should read closely the Form 8-K and attached exhibits:

Form 8-K, including documents referenced therein, and items:

• Item 2.03. Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. and
• Item 3.02. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities (emphasis added)

AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO THE CREDIT AGREEMENT AND SECURITY AGREEMENT
AMENDMENT NO. 2 TO CREDIT AGREEMENT

Press Release, dated December 9, 2015

Also note in the Form 8-K:
Item 9.01. Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(b) Financial Statements of Business Acquired.
The financial statements required by this item are not being filed herewith. To the extent information is required by this item, it will be filed with the SEC by amendment as soon as practicable, but no later than 71 days after the date on which this Current Report on Form 8-K is required to be filed.
(b) Pro Forma Financial Information.
The pro forma financial information required by this item is not being filed herewith. To the extent such information is required by this item, it will be filed with the SEC by amendment as soon as practicable, but no later than 71 days after the date on which this Current Report on Form 8-K is required to be filed. (emphasis added)

Finally note the one after-hours trade of only 200 shares (see charts below) which jumped the share price of Neustar:

Neustar stock chart, Dec 9, 2015 (source: google.com)

After hours trading in Neustar shares Dec 9, 2015 (source: Nasdaq) 

Caveat Emptor!

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