Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
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Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
2019-03-11
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Beyond Its Borders (video)
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Around the Region
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
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Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
2019-02-22
Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi - Next U.S. Recession, in 2021? (video)
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
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Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
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Editor's note: post originally published under title What Will Cause the Next Recession? Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi (video).
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2018-12-27
Economics 2018: Stock Market Turmoil, Trade Wars, Brexit Uncertainty
2018 in economics: from market turmoil, to trade war and Brexit
Market turmoil, a trade war, a softening global economy, a sputtering Germany, a budget-busting Italian government and Brexit: FT.com's economics commentator Martin Sandbu reviews a tough year in economics. Video above published Dec 21, 2018.
Market turmoil, a trade war, a softening global economy, a sputtering Germany, a budget-busting Italian government and Brexit: FT.com's economics commentator Martin Sandbu reviews a tough year in economics. Video above published Dec 21, 2018.
There exists a credible alternative to the present Brexit shambles. We must take it, seize the Brexit prize, and give the people of Britain the future they deserve. https://t.co/AOJKj3zc3V— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) December 16, 2018
The no-deal option: About a dozen Cabinet members now back completing Brexit on world trade terms rejecting the EU’s offer.— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) December 21, 2018
My Telegraph column on why this could now be the least risky option: https://t.co/evgc8IEbLE
On the other hand, Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, disagrees:Brexit Britain will be just fine https://t.co/29oIdcqAqF— Toby Young (@toadmeister) December 26, 2018
Martin Wolf: The nightmare of a no-deal Brexit looms and must be prevented https://t.co/YFV3bHIFvR— Martin Wolf (@martinwolf_) December 13, 2018
2018-10-01
Adam Tooze on 'How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World'
Reuters.com's Peter Thal Larsen talks to Adam Tooze, Columbia University history professor, who joins the dots from the 2008 crash to Brexit and U.S. elections. Podcast release date: 4 September 2018.
Professor Adam Tooze is author of Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.
Domain: adamtooze.com
Twitter profile: History, economics, politics, theory. Professor, Columbia University. Director of the European Institute. Born UK, raised FRG (Germany).
Twitter: @adam_tooze
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2017-12-13
Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rates Announcement & Press Conference
FOMC Press Conference December 13, 2017:
LIVE Wednesday, Dec 13, 2017: Fed Chair Janet Yellen's FOMC press conference scheduled for 2:30 pm EST. Her previous FOMC Press Conference was September 20, 2017 (pdf), video available here.
UPDATE: The U.S. central bank--the Federal Reserve (domain: federalreserve.gov) or "the Fed"--started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and on Wednesday made its announcement on interest rates:
FOMC Statement: PDF | HTML; Implementation Note; Projection Materials PDF | HTML
Note: The Fed was expected to hike near-term interest rates, especially after last Friday's strong jobs report.
Roach: Fed Should Move Aggressively to Normalize Rates
Bloomberg.com video above published Dec 11, 2017: Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University, discusses debt levels in Asia, including China, and his outlook for interest rate hikes from the Fed. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."
President Trump's nominee, Jerome Powell, will take over as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the end of Janet Yellen's term, subject to confirmation by vote of the full U.S. Senate. On December 5, 2017, the Senate Banking Committee approved Powell's nomination to be Fed Chair in a 22-1 vote, with Senator Elizabeth Warren casting the lone dissenting vote, and therefore his nomination is expected to be confirmed before the next meeting of the FOMC.
See also:
LIVE Wednesday, Dec 13, 2017: Fed Chair Janet Yellen's FOMC press conference scheduled for 2:30 pm EST. Her previous FOMC Press Conference was September 20, 2017 (pdf), video available here.
UPDATE: The U.S. central bank--the Federal Reserve (domain: federalreserve.gov) or "the Fed"--started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and on Wednesday made its announcement on interest rates:
"The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.50 percent, effective December 14, 2017 ... Effective December 14, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.25 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day."--source: Dec 13 Implementation NoteVoting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate. Read more:
FOMC Statement: PDF | HTML; Implementation Note; Projection Materials PDF | HTML
Note: The Fed was expected to hike near-term interest rates, especially after last Friday's strong jobs report.
Roach: Fed Should Move Aggressively to Normalize Rates
Bloomberg.com video above published Dec 11, 2017: Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University, discusses debt levels in Asia, including China, and his outlook for interest rate hikes from the Fed. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."
President Trump's nominee, Jerome Powell, will take over as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the end of Janet Yellen's term, subject to confirmation by vote of the full U.S. Senate. On December 5, 2017, the Senate Banking Committee approved Powell's nomination to be Fed Chair in a 22-1 vote, with Senator Elizabeth Warren casting the lone dissenting vote, and therefore his nomination is expected to be confirmed before the next meeting of the FOMC.
See also:
- Fed Gets More Ammo for Rate Hikes | WolfStreet.com Dec 12, 2017: "Producer Price Index rises most in six years."
- Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 | Bloomberg.com: Fed, ECB, BOE and SNB set policy in 18-hour window this week--Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase predict average interest rates across advanced economies to increase to at least 1% next year, or the biggest rise since 2006.
- Federal Reserve Overlooks Technology’s Role in Limiting Inflation | WIRED.com: "... on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made a rather startling admission: The Fed may have “misspecified” its models for inflation and “misjudged” the strength of wages and the job market ..."
- Fed Functions: Promoting Financial System Stability (video): Federal Reserve Board video published Aug 29, 2017: The Federal Reserve performs five key economic functions in the public interest to help promote a healthy economy, including promoting the stability of a financial system that is crucial to the well-being of the U.S. and global economy.
- Fed FAQ: What is macroeconomics? (video): Federal Reserve Board video published Oct 19, 2017.
"The term "monetary policy" refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.
"The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
"Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services."--source: federalreserve.gov.
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) December 7, 2017
2017-10-24
Political Economics: Technocracy, President Trump, and the Next Fed Chair
The MacroView from Three Perspectives:
1. Next Fed Chair (videos)
Powell Is a Force at the Federal Reserve, Says Wallace
Bloomberg.com video published Oct 23, 2017: Kim Wallace, head of Washington policy at Renaissance Macro Research (domain: renmac.com), examines the leading contenders to be Federal Reserve Chairman and the warning from Billionaire Ray Dalio for the Fed to watch a U.S. economic divide. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets" on October 23rd.
DomainMondo.com's prediction: Trump will pick Powell to be Fed Chair. Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has reportedly recommended Powell privately to Trump.
A Powell, Taylor Fed Hawkish to Markets, Says Zentner
Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 23, 2017: Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and Steve Barrow, head of FX strategy at Standard Bank, examine what a combination of John Taylor and Jerome Powell on the Federal Reserve could mean to markets. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
What's at stake?
"That’s the real political debate in 2017 and going forward; technical incompetence where the defense of the technocracy refuses to even allow the suggestion that this might be true. I go back to Weimar Germany not because I expect a global hyperinflationary breakdown, but in how that one particular form of systemic breakdown exposed timeless flaws inherent in all economic and financial systems. They all run to some extent on trust and (good) faith:
3. QT: Quantitative Tightening and the Fed:
Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History | Mauldin Economics (excerpt):
 |
| Hawks and Doves: The Five Fed Chair Candidates. On Oct 23, 2017, President Trump said he was "very very close" to a decision on who would be the next Chair of The Federal Reserve. |
Powell Is a Force at the Federal Reserve, Says Wallace
Bloomberg.com video published Oct 23, 2017: Kim Wallace, head of Washington policy at Renaissance Macro Research (domain: renmac.com), examines the leading contenders to be Federal Reserve Chairman and the warning from Billionaire Ray Dalio for the Fed to watch a U.S. economic divide. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets" on October 23rd.
DomainMondo.com's prediction: Trump will pick Powell to be Fed Chair. Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has reportedly recommended Powell privately to Trump.
A Powell, Taylor Fed Hawkish to Markets, Says Zentner
Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 23, 2017: Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and Steve Barrow, head of FX strategy at Standard Bank, examine what a combination of John Taylor and Jerome Powell on the Federal Reserve could mean to markets. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
What's at stake?
"Whereas Janet Yellen, Bernanke’s successor, ended the Fed’s Q.E. program in 2014, the European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi’s version of it is still going, which has led to the “manipulation” that so concerns Jeffrey Gundlach. European interest rates “should be much higher than they are today,” Gundlach has said, “. . . [and] once Draghi realizes this, the order of the financial system will be turned upside down and it won’t be a good thing. It will mean the liquidity that has been pumping up the markets will be drying up in 2018 . . . Things go down. We’ve been in an artificially inflated market for stocks and bonds largely around the world.”"2. Political Economics by Jeffrey P. Snider | AlhambraPartners.com 20 Oct 2017, excerpt: "Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same .... Trump’s candidacy, as Bernie Sanders’, as an ideal was a grave threat to the status quo because it started with the premise that, no, this isn’t as good as it can be and that we need to look for real solutions. Whether he forwards that ideal as President is and has been another matter, and who he picks as Fed Chair might be some small indication of where he currently stands consistent with that idea, or perhaps having second thoughts about it. The technocracy doesn’t work because it isn’t technically competent (thus 2008).
"That’s the real political debate in 2017 and going forward; technical incompetence where the defense of the technocracy refuses to even allow the suggestion that this might be true. I go back to Weimar Germany not because I expect a global hyperinflationary breakdown, but in how that one particular form of systemic breakdown exposed timeless flaws inherent in all economic and financial systems. They all run to some extent on trust and (good) faith:
"In other words, German monetary officials, particularly Reichsbank head Rudolf von Havenstein and Minister of Finance Karl Helfferich, denied that Germany had an inflation problem at all – right up until the end. Minister Helfferich declared that Germany had better gold coverage after the war than before it, despite that more than quadrupling of currency volume. One economics professor, Julius Wolf, wrote in 1922 that, “in proportion to the need, less money circulates in Germany now than before the war.”
"As much as the easy-to-see Versailles excuse played a part, there can be no doubt that beyond 1921 the German people themselves began to recognize that authorities had no idea what they were doing; worse, they came to see that even though policymakers were inept and incompetent, officials themselves would never admit as much and thus nothing would prevent Germany from its fate. That awakening meant an increase in danger that French occupation could never have unleashed on its own."Hat Tip: ZeroHedge.com
3. QT: Quantitative Tightening and the Fed:
Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History | Mauldin Economics (excerpt):
"... The chart ... shows the growing uncertainty over the future direction of monetary policy, is both terrifying and enlightening. The Federal Reserve, and indeed the ECB and the Bank of Japan, went to great lengths to assure us that the massive amounts of QE that they pushed into the market would help turn the markets and the economy around. Now they are telling us that as they take that money back off the table, they will have no effect on the markets. And all the data that I just presented above tells us that investors are simply shrugging their shoulders at what is roughly called “quantitative tightening,” or QT. I simply don't buy the notion that QE could have had such an effect on the markets and housing prices while QT will have no impact at all. In the 1930s, the Federal Reserve grew its balance sheet significantly. Then they simply left it alone, the economy grew, and the balance sheet became a nonfactor in the following decades. I don’t know why today’s Fed couldn’t do the same thing. There really is no inflation to speak of, except asset price inflation, and nobody really worries about that. We all want our stocks and home prices to go up, so there’s no real reason for the central bank to lean against inflationary fears; and raising rates and doing QT at the same time seems to me to be taking a little more risk than necessary. And they’re doing it in the midst of the greatest bull market in complacency to emerge in my lifetime. Do they think that taking literally trillions of dollars off their balance sheet over the next few years is not going to have a reverse effect on asset prices? Or at least some effect? Is it really worth the risk?..."
2017-07-25
Why We are Not Building a Defendable Internet (video)
Why We are Not Building a Defendable Internet
Video above published Apr 25, 2017 by Black Hat - Thomas Dullien / Halvar Flake: In IT security, offensive problems are technical - but most defensive problems are political and organizational. Attackers have the luxury to focus only on the technical aspects of their work, while defenders have to navigate complex political and regulatory environments. A previous talk ("Rearchitecting a defendable internet") discussed what technical measures would yield defendable devices - and intentionally omitted the political and economics side. This talk, on the other hand, explores the economics and incentive structures in IT security: Who is incentivized by who to do what - and how these incentives fail to produce the security level we desire.
The talk looks at different players in IT security: CISOs, security product vendors, computer manufacturers, cyber insurances - and examine their economic incentive structures, their interplay, and reasons for failure. The talk will also discuss an alternate reality where things work smoothly, and examine the differences to our current reality.
Black Hat USA 2017: "Now in its 20th year, Black Hat is the world’s leading information security event, providing attendees with the very latest in research, development and trends. Black Hat USA 2017 kicks off with four days of technical Trainings (July 22-25) followed by the two-day main conference (July 26-27) featuring Briefings, Arsenal, Business Hall, and more."
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Video above published Apr 25, 2017 by Black Hat - Thomas Dullien / Halvar Flake: In IT security, offensive problems are technical - but most defensive problems are political and organizational. Attackers have the luxury to focus only on the technical aspects of their work, while defenders have to navigate complex political and regulatory environments. A previous talk ("Rearchitecting a defendable internet") discussed what technical measures would yield defendable devices - and intentionally omitted the political and economics side. This talk, on the other hand, explores the economics and incentive structures in IT security: Who is incentivized by who to do what - and how these incentives fail to produce the security level we desire.
The talk looks at different players in IT security: CISOs, security product vendors, computer manufacturers, cyber insurances - and examine their economic incentive structures, their interplay, and reasons for failure. The talk will also discuss an alternate reality where things work smoothly, and examine the differences to our current reality.
Black Hat USA 2017: "Now in its 20th year, Black Hat is the world’s leading information security event, providing attendees with the very latest in research, development and trends. Black Hat USA 2017 kicks off with four days of technical Trainings (July 22-25) followed by the two-day main conference (July 26-27) featuring Briefings, Arsenal, Business Hall, and more."
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2017-06-26
Interview With Daron Acemoglu, Author of Why Nations Fail
Interview With Daron Acemoglu: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View: Bloomberg View columnist Barry Ritholtz interviews Daron Acemoglu, Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics at MIT. He is the recipient of several awards, including the 2005 John Bates Clark Medal. He is the co-author of "Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty" and among the most cited economists in the world.
Daron Acemoglu on Why Nations Fail:
Video above published March 23, 2012, by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
All the difference in the world | MIT.edu: Economists Daron Acemoglu of MIT and James Robinson of Harvard University have another answer: Politics makes the difference. Countries that have what they call “inclusive” political governments — those extending political and property rights as broadly as possible, while enforcing laws and providing some public infrastructure — experience the greatest growth over the long run. By contrast, Acemoglu and Robinson assert, countries with “extractive” political systems — in which power is wielded by a small elite — either fail to grow broadly or wither away after short bursts of economic expansion. “You need political equality to underpin economic prosperity,” says Acemoglu, the Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics at MIT.
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2016-07-08
Former BoE Chief Mervyn King: Brexit, Future of EU and London (videos)
Former BoE Chief on the Future of the City of London:
In 25 years’ time, we’ll probably find that the U.K.’s exit from the European Union had little effect on the City of London, says former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.
Mervyn King on Brexit: What the U.K. Needs to Do Next:
The former governor of the Bank of England says that following the U.K.’s vote to leave the U.K. it must take action over trade, financial services, agriculture and the relationship between the Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Videos published July 7, 2016, by WSJ.com.
Former BOE Chief Slams 'Absurd' Brexit Claims:
The former governor of the Bank of England slammed both sides of the U.K.’s EU referendum campaign for their “disgraceful” economic claims.
Eurozone Will Hobble Along, Says Former BOE Chief:
The former governor of the Bank of England says that the eurozone will continue to hobble on from one crisis to another for the foreseeable future.
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In 25 years’ time, we’ll probably find that the U.K.’s exit from the European Union had little effect on the City of London, says former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.
Mervyn King on Brexit: What the U.K. Needs to Do Next:
The former governor of the Bank of England says that following the U.K.’s vote to leave the U.K. it must take action over trade, financial services, agriculture and the relationship between the Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Videos published July 7, 2016, by WSJ.com.
Former BOE Chief Slams 'Absurd' Brexit Claims:
The former governor of the Bank of England slammed both sides of the U.K.’s EU referendum campaign for their “disgraceful” economic claims.
Eurozone Will Hobble Along, Says Former BOE Chief:
The former governor of the Bank of England says that the eurozone will continue to hobble on from one crisis to another for the foreseeable future.
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2016-02-16
ICANN Damaged a Competitive Domain Name Market With Its New gTLDs
UPDATE April 1, 2016: Melbourne IT (ASX: MLB) announced the divestment of its international domain name registration business to Tucows (NASDAQ: TCX) has been completed (see March 17, 2016 UPDATE below). The non-strategic international reseller business in the SMB division was sold for a total consideration of USD$6 million, which will be reinvested in MLB’s growing digital solutions business.“The strong strategic rationale for the capital reallocation from a declining non-core business into a growing core business will improve the overall quality of earnings in the SMB business and will accelerate MLB’s growth.” said Martin Mercer CEO of Melbourne IT (emphasis added).
UPDATE March 22, 2016: New gTLD services provider Architelos files Chapter 7 Bankruptcy (liquidation): see Architelos Announces Filing For Bankruptcy | Architelos. In a turn of "poetic justice," former ICANN Chief Strategy Officer, Kurt Pritz, "architect of ICANN's new gTLD program" is listed on the Architelos website as one of Architelos's executives. No reason for the bankruptcy filing was given in the Architelos announcement, but Architelos has been involved in litigation with Afilias.
UPDATE March 17, 2016: Melbourne IT (ASX: MLB) is selling its International Domain Name business to Tucows (NASDAQ: TCX) and reallocating capital to an area other than domain names:
UPDATE March 22, 2016: New gTLD services provider Architelos files Chapter 7 Bankruptcy (liquidation): see Architelos Announces Filing For Bankruptcy | Architelos. In a turn of "poetic justice," former ICANN Chief Strategy Officer, Kurt Pritz, "architect of ICANN's new gTLD program" is listed on the Architelos website as one of Architelos's executives. No reason for the bankruptcy filing was given in the Architelos announcement, but Architelos has been involved in litigation with Afilias.
UPDATE March 17, 2016: Melbourne IT (ASX: MLB) is selling its International Domain Name business to Tucows (NASDAQ: TCX) and reallocating capital to an area other than domain names:
"The Directors of MLB are pleased to announce that MLB has entered into an agreement for the sale of MLB’s International Domain Name business. MLB’s International Domain Name business was established in 2000 and encompasses approximately 250 global resellers across the USA, Europe, and Asia. In essence, it is an indirect channel selling large volumes of domain names at relatively low margins. MLB’s strategy is to drive growth from new managed solutions offerings in both its SMB and ES divisions. In this context, the International division was increasingly a non-core operation that was a drag on the performance of the SMB division. The sale of the International Domain Names business and the reinvestment of this capital in MLB’s growing digital solutions business is consistent with the Group’s strategy and will accelerate MLB’s growth." MLB release March 16, 2016 (pdf) (emphasis added)
UPDATE March 1, 2016: Even "believers" in new gTLDs are having second thoughts--see J. Carlo Cannell of Cannell Capital LLC's letter to David E. Panos, Chairman of the Board, Rightside Group, Ltd. filed with the SEC:
"... While I am a believer in new GTLDs, it is going to be many years before their revenue in any way materially approaches the revenue potential of our registrar operations. In my view, NAME’s registrar has become like a crazy aunt kept in the basement, one that you refuse to adequately clothe or feed, but who steadfastly spins straw into gold used to subsidize a stable of largely substandard new GTLDs such as .democrat, .dance, .army, .navy, and .airforce. Most of these new GTLDs are irrelevant and will never be sold in material volumes. NAME is holding back the growth potential of your registrar by pushing garbage extensions to a user base that quietly knows better ..." (emphasis added)
UPDATE: Feb 22, 2016: ICANN's new gTLDs carnage continues--read the sad tale, insights, mistakes, and biases, of a long-time new gTLDs proponent: Minds + Machines Group Ltd (LON: MMX) ex-CEO: "I Got Fired" published today in CircleID. For further background read: Housing Bubble Like New gTLDs Mania? The Big Short Trailer (video) and ICANN's New gTLD Domains Are Failing Badly..... and New gTLD Domains, the Walking Dead and Dying... [--end of update--]
"The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers [ICANN], founded in 1998, has as its mission to ensure a stable and unified global Internet. One of its key responsibilities is introducing and promoting competition in the registration of domain names, while ensuring the security and stability of the domain name system (DNS)." --source icann.org: About the Program | ICANN New gTLDs
What happens when you take a well-functioning competitive domain name market consisting of less than 20 gTLDs and 100+ ccTLDs, and just dump into that market 400+ new gTLDs like ICANN has done? Failing new gTLDs, which will lead to market consolidation, resulting in just a few big players dominating the market. Any competent economist could have told ICANN and its "ICANN community" that simple fact of economics.
In addition, the dangers of excessive or destructive competition are well known due to the regulatory failures and excessive financial industry competition which resulted in the Great Recession--the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Sound familiar? (See Frank Schilling quote near the top of this post.)
Many new gTLD registry operators are now just like the banks, Wall Street firms, credit ratings agencies, and more, which were incentivized to fail by the same, now discredited, laissez-faire economic philosophy upon which ICANN's new gTLDs policy and program were founded and developed. It is no coincidence that the same mindset in the same era that brought about the Great Recession also produced ICANN's policy and program for new gTLDs.
About the Program | ICANN New gTLDs: "In 2005, ICANN's Generic Names Supporting Organization (GNSO) began a policy development process to consider the introduction of new gTLDs, based on the results of trial rounds conducted in 2000 and 2003. The GNSO is the main policy-making body for generic top-level domains, and encourages global participation in the technical management of the Internet. The two-year policy development process included detailed and lengthy consultations with the many constituencies of ICANN's global Internet community, including governments, civil society, business and intellectual property stakeholders, and technologists. In 2008, the ICANN Board adopted 19 specific GNSO policy recommendations for implementing new gTLDs, with certain allocation criteria and contractual conditions..."
What would Jon have done?
So now we are beginning to see the consequences of ICANN's folly--perhaps a few "winners" and everyone else left with losses, and domain name registrants paying more, "much more" in domain name costs (see Mark Monitor's New gTLD Quarterly Report trend #3). New gTLD registry operators are now blaming trademark owners and brands for the new gTLDs' cybersquatting problems (see e.g., in Mark Monitor's New gTLD Quarterly Report, supra, "We found .CLUB to be the most squatted of all NgTLDs [new gTLDs] in this focus, with over 50% of the sampling found to be registered to someone other than the company or brand-owner"). Actually, everyone should be blaming ICANN for a "bad policy, horribly implemented"--the new gTLDs program.
Survivors of ICANN's fiasco, like the prescient, will invest their money elsewhere--a good example being Web.com (see Web.com Chairman's quote near the top of this post). Web.com (NASDAQ:WEB) reported Q4 2015 earnings February 11, 2016 [Q4 EPS of $0.66 beat by $0.03. Revenue of $141.3M (+0.7% Y/Y) beat by $1.83M] but the big news was Web.com's announced acquisition of Yodle. Web.com brands include Network Solutions and Register.com, but Yodle (domain: yodle.com) is not a domain name registrar nor registry operator. Yodle's offerings include search engine optimization (SEO), email marketing, creation of websites and Facebook pages.
Wall Street likes Web.com's new non-domains strategy--the stock closed up 11% Friday (day after the earnings and Yodle announcements):
See also:
"The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers [ICANN], founded in 1998, has as its mission to ensure a stable and unified global Internet. One of its key responsibilities is introducing and promoting competition in the registration of domain names, while ensuring the security and stability of the domain name system (DNS)." --source icann.org: About the Program | ICANN New gTLDs
"I do think that Donuts’ approach of having a large portfolio of names [185+ new gTLDs] is the right model. There is not enough cash flow to sustain a business otherwise. We at Uniregistry are just big enough but I expect that some registries will soon be people operating out of their bedrooms. Many of the new names [new gTLDs] just don’t work."--Frank Schilling (June, 2015), see Domain Mondo | Housing Bubble Like New gTLDs Mania?"We're not giving up on domains, but we are going to be realistic. There is only so far you can chase cost of acquisition and realize a reasonable return on investment and frankly the market is very competitive and there are crazy things going on in the market right now and we'd rather put our money where we can acquire a new subscriber even if it's fewer subscribers, but at higher ARPU. We think we can actually generate better revenue growth by going in that direction." -- Chairman, President and CEO David L. Brown, of new gTLD applicant and domain name registrar Web.com explaining why the company is investing $344 million acquiring a company (Yodle) not in the domain name industry (source: Q4 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha February 11, 2016).
What happens when you take a well-functioning competitive domain name market consisting of less than 20 gTLDs and 100+ ccTLDs, and just dump into that market 400+ new gTLDs like ICANN has done? Failing new gTLDs, which will lead to market consolidation, resulting in just a few big players dominating the market. Any competent economist could have told ICANN and its "ICANN community" that simple fact of economics.
In addition, the dangers of excessive or destructive competition are well known due to the regulatory failures and excessive financial industry competition which resulted in the Great Recession--the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
"... the financial industry must be ‘competitive enough to provide a range of services at a reasonable price for consumers, but not prone to periods of excess competition ... and competitors fail as a result with systemic consequences ..." Is competition always good?: "market competition produces at times suboptimal results" (Oxford Journals - Law Journal of Antitrust Enforcement, Volume 1, Issue 1, pp. 162-197, referencing OECD, Bank Competition and Financial Stability - OECD Publishing 27 October 2011).See more recently: A tempest of fear | The Economist - Feb 13, 2016: "... the malaise of European banking stocks has deeper roots. The fundamental problem is both that there are too many banks in Europe and that many are not profitable enough ..."
Sound familiar? (See Frank Schilling quote near the top of this post.)
Many new gTLD registry operators are now just like the banks, Wall Street firms, credit ratings agencies, and more, which were incentivized to fail by the same, now discredited, laissez-faire economic philosophy upon which ICANN's new gTLDs policy and program were founded and developed. It is no coincidence that the same mindset in the same era that brought about the Great Recession also produced ICANN's policy and program for new gTLDs.
About the Program | ICANN New gTLDs: "In 2005, ICANN's Generic Names Supporting Organization (GNSO) began a policy development process to consider the introduction of new gTLDs, based on the results of trial rounds conducted in 2000 and 2003. The GNSO is the main policy-making body for generic top-level domains, and encourages global participation in the technical management of the Internet. The two-year policy development process included detailed and lengthy consultations with the many constituencies of ICANN's global Internet community, including governments, civil society, business and intellectual property stakeholders, and technologists. In 2008, the ICANN Board adopted 19 specific GNSO policy recommendations for implementing new gTLDs, with certain allocation criteria and contractual conditions..."
What would Jon have done?
Domain Mondo Aug 25, 2014 | Are Domain Names Dinosaurs?: "John Gilmore said "Jon’s [Jon Postel] initial design would have expanded to dozens of TLDs long before ICANN, and increased them by 50 or 100 a year until demand slacked off" (source: It’s time for ICANN to go - Salon.com July 2002, emphasis added).But ICANN and its "ICANN community" didn't care what Jon Postel would have done. ICANN didn't care about "market demand" or how many new gTLDs could be reasonably, and profitably, supported by "market demand." ICANN didn't even listen to the FTC (see also this 2011 pdf), nor the former Chairman of the FTC, nor the founding Chair of the ICANN Board of Directors, nor anyone else, including the Antitrust Division of the US Department of Justice (pdf), all of whom could see that ICANN's new gTLDs expansion was fraught with pitfalls and unintended consequences. It was, after all, "all about the money" from which ICANN could justify "expanding hub offices, exorbitant salaries and benefits, exploding staff levels and budgets."
So now we are beginning to see the consequences of ICANN's folly--perhaps a few "winners" and everyone else left with losses, and domain name registrants paying more, "much more" in domain name costs (see Mark Monitor's New gTLD Quarterly Report trend #3). New gTLD registry operators are now blaming trademark owners and brands for the new gTLDs' cybersquatting problems (see e.g., in Mark Monitor's New gTLD Quarterly Report, supra, "We found .CLUB to be the most squatted of all NgTLDs [new gTLDs] in this focus, with over 50% of the sampling found to be registered to someone other than the company or brand-owner"). Actually, everyone should be blaming ICANN for a "bad policy, horribly implemented"--the new gTLDs program.
Survivors of ICANN's fiasco, like the prescient, will invest their money elsewhere--a good example being Web.com (see Web.com Chairman's quote near the top of this post). Web.com (NASDAQ:WEB) reported Q4 2015 earnings February 11, 2016 [Q4 EPS of $0.66 beat by $0.03. Revenue of $141.3M (+0.7% Y/Y) beat by $1.83M] but the big news was Web.com's announced acquisition of Yodle. Web.com brands include Network Solutions and Register.com, but Yodle (domain: yodle.com) is not a domain name registrar nor registry operator. Yodle's offerings include search engine optimization (SEO), email marketing, creation of websites and Facebook pages.
Wall Street likes Web.com's new non-domains strategy--the stock closed up 11% Friday (day after the earnings and Yodle announcements):
See also:
2016-01-27
Martin Wolf on China Capital Controls (videos)
UPDATE 27 Jan 2016: Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index closes at 2735.56, DOWN -47% from its June 12, 2015 close of 5166.35:
Martin Wolf on China capital controls | FT World - FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf on whether China should tighten its capital controls to stem huge outflows of money, and the challenges posed by market turmoil and its slowing economy. Published on Jan 26, 2016
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| Shanghai Composite Index (source: google.com) |
Martin Wolf on China capital controls | FT World - FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf on whether China should tighten its capital controls to stem huge outflows of money, and the challenges posed by market turmoil and its slowing economy. Published on Jan 26, 2016
Published on Apr 8, 2015 - Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, talks to the FT's Michael Skapinker about China’s economic slowdown and whether there is still reason to be optimistic about its prospects.
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2016-01-24
Bill Janeway, Economist, Venture Capitalist, on Tech, Finance, Innovation
Barry Ritholtz interviews Bill Janeway on this edition of Masters in Business (Audio released January 3, 2016) by Bloomberg View: “IPOs are the new down round" says Venture Capitalist Bill Janeway. Janeway is a managing partner at Warburg Pincus (warburgpincus.com) and author of Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets, Speculation and the State. He attended Princeton undergrad, and earned his Ph.D. in economics from Cambridge University on a Marshall scholarship.
Known as a “key creator of modern venture capital,” Janeway helped to created BEA Systems, which connected software applications to databases across much of the Internet. The initial cash investment of $54 million became a payout of $6.5 billion within six years. His work operates at the intersection of technology, finance, and economics. Janeway funded the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance in 2001 and funded the annual Princeton-Cambridge Finance Seminars in 2004.
re: technology, venture capital, finance, economics, innovation, startups, unicorns, bubbles
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2015-12-26
ICANN New gTLDs: Competition, Consumer Trust & Choice Review Team
UPDATE: Letters of motivation, Curricula vitae, Statements of Interest below
Seventeen individuals have been selected to serve on the team that will review ICANN's New gTLD Program (new generic top-level domains) in relation to competition, consumer trust and consumer choice (CCT). Review team members represent "an array of geographic regions and areas of expertise, and have demonstrated knowledge of the New gTLD Program or one of the review areas" according to ICANN.
Six review team members were endorsed by the Generic Names Supporting Organization (GNSO), two were endorsed by the At-Large Advisory Committee (ALAC), and four members will serve as independent experts and bring deep knowledge of economics, consumer protection and intellectual property law, and Internet security to the team. Of the remaining five team members, two also belong to the Country Code Names Supporting Organization (ccNSO), two from the Governmental Advisory Committee (GAC), and one represents ICANN's CEO. In accordance with ICANN's Affirmation of Commitments (AoC), CCT review team members were selected by ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé and GAC Chair Thomas Schneider. The individuals selected are listed below:
Members Representing an ICANN Supporting Organization or Advisory Committee:
Member | Country | SO/AC
Calvin Browne South Africa GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Jordyn Buchanan USA GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Carlos Raul Gutierrez Costa Rica GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Waudo Siganga Kenya GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
David Taylor United Kingdom GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Jonathan Zuck USA GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Kaili Kan People's Republic of China ALAC
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Carlton Samuels Jamaica ALAC
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Megan Richards Belgium GAC
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Dejan Djukic Serbia ccNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Gaongalelwe G.P. Mosweu Botswana ccNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Members Serving as Independent Experts
Member | Country
Drew Bagley USA
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Stanley Besen USA
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
N. Ravi Shankar India
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Fabro Steibel Brazil
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
*ICANN CEO representative: Jamie Hedlund - ICANN Vice President, Strategic Programs, Global Domain Division
*GAC Chair representative: Laureen Kapin - FTC Counsel for International Consumer Protection; (pdf) and (pdf)
*The Affirmation of Commitments allows the ICANN CEO (Fadi Chehadé) and GAC chair (Thomas Schneider) to serve on the review team or designate representatives. As shown above, the ICANN CEO will be represented by ICANN's Jamie Hedlund, and GAC Chair by Laureen Kapin, of the GAC Public Safety Working Group and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
The CCT review team is expected to convene for its first meeting in January 2016 and complete a final draft of its report by December 2016. Periodic updates on the review will be made via icann.org and at ICANN public meetings. Further information on the review process and members of the review team may be found here.
Seventeen individuals have been selected to serve on the team that will review ICANN's New gTLD Program (new generic top-level domains) in relation to competition, consumer trust and consumer choice (CCT). Review team members represent "an array of geographic regions and areas of expertise, and have demonstrated knowledge of the New gTLD Program or one of the review areas" according to ICANN.
Six review team members were endorsed by the Generic Names Supporting Organization (GNSO), two were endorsed by the At-Large Advisory Committee (ALAC), and four members will serve as independent experts and bring deep knowledge of economics, consumer protection and intellectual property law, and Internet security to the team. Of the remaining five team members, two also belong to the Country Code Names Supporting Organization (ccNSO), two from the Governmental Advisory Committee (GAC), and one represents ICANN's CEO. In accordance with ICANN's Affirmation of Commitments (AoC), CCT review team members were selected by ICANN CEO Fadi Chehadé and GAC Chair Thomas Schneider. The individuals selected are listed below:
Members Representing an ICANN Supporting Organization or Advisory Committee:
Member | Country | SO/AC
Calvin Browne South Africa GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Jordyn Buchanan USA GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Carlos Raul Gutierrez Costa Rica GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Waudo Siganga Kenya GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
David Taylor United Kingdom GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Jonathan Zuck USA GNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Kaili Kan People's Republic of China ALAC
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Carlton Samuels Jamaica ALAC
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Megan Richards Belgium GAC
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Dejan Djukic Serbia ccNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Gaongalelwe G.P. Mosweu Botswana ccNSO
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Members Serving as Independent Experts
Member | Country
Drew Bagley USA
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Stanley Besen USA
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
N. Ravi Shankar India
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
Fabro Steibel Brazil
Letter of motivation
Curriculum vitae
Statement of interests
*ICANN CEO representative: Jamie Hedlund - ICANN Vice President, Strategic Programs, Global Domain Division
*GAC Chair representative: Laureen Kapin - FTC Counsel for International Consumer Protection; (pdf) and (pdf)
The CCT review team is expected to convene for its first meeting in January 2016 and complete a final draft of its report by December 2016. Periodic updates on the review will be made via icann.org and at ICANN public meetings. Further information on the review process and members of the review team may be found here.
2015-09-21
Is the iPhone Apple's Only Story? (video)
iPhone: Is It Apple's Only Story? - Gamco CIO Howard Ward discusses his outlook for Apple. Harvard Professor of Economics and Public Policy Ken Rogoff also speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." Published on Sep 11, 2015
Principal domain name: apple.com
Stock Exchange: Symbol -- NASDAQ: AAPL
GAMCO Investors, Inc.: domain name: gabelli.com
See also on Domain Mondo: Apple, iPhone Vulnerability, Product Concentration, $AAPL Unsustainability
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