Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade war. Show all posts

2018-12-31

Year 2018 in Review & Fall of the FAANGs $AAPL $FB (video)

2018: Year in Review

Among the key events of the year; Donald Trump met Kim Jong Un, Facebook's growth slowed as Apple's market cap hit $1 trillion, and a trade war between the US and China weakened the global economy. Videos above and below published by the Financial Times (ft.com).

A Tale of Two Stocks: Apple $AAPL and Facebook $FB:
$AAPL
$FB
Techlash: the fall of the FAANGs

FT.com's Rana Foroohar explains what happened this year to the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, et al) in the tech sector, and what may further impact the sector in 2019.






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2018-12-27

Economics 2018: Stock Market Turmoil, Trade Wars, Brexit Uncertainty

2018 in economics: from market turmoil, to trade war and Brexit

Market turmoil, a trade war, a softening global economy, a sputtering Germany, a budget-busting Italian government and Brexit: FT.com's economics commentator Martin Sandbu reviews a tough year in economics. Video above published Dec 21, 2018.
On the other hand, Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, disagrees:
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2018-10-27

Tech Review | Internet of Things Creating New Avenues for Cybercrime

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2018-10-27)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Internet of Things Creating New Avenues for Cybercrime, 2) How China Went From Copying Tech to Cutting Edge, 3) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes, 4)ICYMI Tech News.

1) Internet of Things Creating New Avenues for Cybercrime

FT.com and Chubb.com video above published Oct 1, 2018: the Internet of Things (IoT) is creating new avenues for cybercrime. Cybersecurity practices in businesses vary from one company to another but just who is responsible for maintaining cybersecurity practices remains a big question in Cyber Risk Management and Cybersecurity.
SoftBank says there will be a trillion connected devices by 2025 and that "these devices, connected through the internet of things" will "generate $11 trillion in value by that time."-VentureBeat.com.

2) How China Went From Copying Tech to Cutting Edge

China's technology industry is developing into a serious rival to Silicon Valley, but there are political hurdles ahead. Bloomberg QuickTake explains how China's tech companies went from copycats to cutting edge, and why the U.S. government is crying foul. Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 16, 2018.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite -3.8% | S&P 500 Index -3.9% | DJIA -3%
The Market Sell-Off Is Overdone, This Is a 'Buying Opportunity'--Mikio Kumada, executive director and global strategist at LGT Capital Partners (domain: lgtcp.com), discusses the market sell-off and what to look out for in the future--video here.
Wall Street's Charging Bull
graphic of Charging Bull | DomainMondo.com
Investing Notes:

US: The party’s far from over for the U.S. economy, as Q3 GDP growth shows--GDP growth of 3.5% marks best two-quarter stretch in four years--a vigorous gain following a 4.2% burst of growth in the second quarter positions the economy for its best performance in 13 years. The last time the U.S. posted 3% growth for a full year was in 2005.

EU: Italy’s Debt Crisis--the European Union rejects Italy's budget--Italy has three weeks to revise its budget under the EU’s rules (Editor's note: don't hold your breath.)

China: policymakers in China have been left searching for answers to the trade war with the US because the domestic think tanks called on for guidance have provided “filtered information” to avoid offending supervisors--scmp.com.

Brexit: Lloyd's (lloyds.com) Chairman: "Our customers will be unaffected by Brexit."--CNBC.com video.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
source: statista.com
  • Why Netflix $NFLX Is Selling $2 Billion of Junk Bonds--Bloomberg.com (video). Netflix will spend $18.6 billion on content, and forecasts $3 billion negative cash flow for 2018 and 2019, betting aggressive spending leads to more subscribers--NYTimes.com.
  • Lobbying: Amazon spent $3.63M on lobbying in Q3, up from $3.47M in Q2, as it seeks JEDI, a big Pentagon contract; Google spent $5.46M, up 30%+ YoY, while Facebook spent $2.82M--Bloomberg.com.
  • Verizon $VZ and Altaba $AABA have agreed to pay $50M in damages, up to $37.5M in legal fees, and provide credit monitoring for Yahoo users affected by Yahoo's 2013 security breach.
  • Facebook $FB is reportedly trying to buy a major cybersecurity firm. Meanwhile Oculus founder Brendan Iribe is leaving Facebook--Bloomberg.com (video).
  • Cloudflare Inc, is preparing an initial public offering (IPO) that could value the startup at more than $3.5 billion.
  • Google $GOOG $GOOGL will open source its firmware for Titan M, a Pixel 3 secure chip handling Verified Boot which also has its own isolated storage and RAM--wired.com.
  • Wealthfront, a digital wealth management startup will offer its automated financial planning tool (robo-advisor) for free by the end of the year.
  • Personal Tech Tip: "... if you always charge your phone at 25 percent, the battery will only work to its full potential for 500 charges ... opting to charging at 75 percent will give you up to 2,500 fully powered charges"--lifehack.org.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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2018-08-20

Three Causes of China's Stock Market Plunge: Trade, Debt, Uncertainty

Three Causes of China's Stock Market Plunge

Emma Dunkley, the FT.com's Asia markets correspondent, blames the threat of a trade war, economic uncertainty and debt levels for the steep fall in Chinese equities this year. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Aug 8, 2018.

See also:
Tech Review: 1) Collapsing Chinese Tech Stocks, 2) Tesla Turbulence | DomainMondo.com



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2018-07-09

Trade War Begins: Why China’s Growth Doesn’t Work For America Anymore

President Trump Announces Trade Tariffs On China Imports

BloombergQuint.com video above published Jul 6, 2018.

Trump tariffs on Chinese goods fulfill campaign promise: Peter Navarro

White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Director Peter Navarro says President Trump has given China every possible avenue to address the theft of U.S. intellectual property. Fox Business video above published Jul 6, 2018.

Trade War Begins: Why China’s Growth Doesn’t Work For America Anymore

No longer does the United States see the Chinese system of economic growth as a tolerable process, says Law Professor Raj Bhala, an expert in International Trade Law, in the video above. Raj Bhala is the inaugural Brenneisen Distinguished Professor, The University of Kansas, School of Law, and Senior Advisor to Dentons U.S. LLP.

According to Bhala, two Trump administration documents detail why Section 301 actions are necessary:

The first is a 215-page investigation report, issued on March 22 by the United States Trade Representative (USTR), summarized in the USTR’s language:
  • “China uses joint venture requirements, foreign investment restrictions, and administrative review and licensing processes to force or pressure technology transfers from American companies.”
  • “China uses discriminatory licensing processes to transfer technologies from U.S. companies to Chinese companies.”
  • “China directs and facilitates investments and acquisitions which generate large-scale technology transfer.”
  • “China conducts and supports cyber intrusions into U.S. computer networks to gain access to valuable business information.”
The second is a 35-page report, issued on June 20 by the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing (embed below), which contends that in addition to protectionist barriers, subsidized overcapacity, and cloud computing restrictions, China seeks to “acquire key technologies and intellectual property from other countries” and “capture the emerging high-technology industries that will drive future economic growth and many advancements in the defense industry.”


A third document is April 18 testimony to Congress by Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson that the CCP’s military intentions in the South China Sea threaten to “displace the U.S. as the security partner of choice for countries in the Indo-Pacific” and “prevent the United States from intervening in any regional conflict on China’s periphery”.
"… [T]he United States advocates for a free and open Indo-Pacific, supported by regional partners and allies that respect international law, freedom of navigation and overflight, and the free flow of commerce and ideas. ...[I]t is increasingly clear that China wants to shape a world aligned with its own authoritarian model and inconsistent with these principles. Through coercive diplomacy, predatory economic policies, and rapid military expansion, China is undermining the rules-based international order. We must be willing to cooperate with China where we can, while consistently and unapologetically confronting China when it engages in behavior that undermines the international order or harms U.S. interests in the region."
Bhala says that on July 6, 2018, President Trump changed the U.S. narrative on trade with China. He imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a 25 percent tariff on $35 billion worth of Chinese imports into the United States, effective July 6, with more levies possible, up to $500 billion on Chinese goods, and China immediately counter-retaliated.

According to Bhala, the U.S. will no longer facilitate Chinese economic growth because the U.S. no longer believes Chinese Communist Party (CCP) led planning is good for the U.S. or the world--that the CCP’s economic behavior, not to mention military intentions, erode America’s economic vitality and thereby undermine its national security. Bhala adds:

"The European Union fought most of the rest of the world over bananas throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Canada and the United States have been whacking each other with softwood lumber since 1982 ... The prudent historical inference for businesses to draw is to re-think their models.
  • Is there exposure to imports, exports, or foreign direct investment in China?
  • What alternative sources of supply exist?
  • Are alternative sales markets appealing?
  • Are alternative production venues viable?
"Even if, perchance, hostilities cease with a truce or treaty, the re-think will prove useful. That’s because the new narrative is a testament to enduring Chinese-American tensions." Read more by Bhala here.

See also:

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2018-03-05

Ignore The Noise About Trade Wars: Charting US Earnings Boost (video)

Stephen Auth Says Everyone Knows That The Chinese Have Been Cheating On Steel

Bloomberg.com video above published Mar 2, 2018: Michael Collins, PMG Fixed Income, Senior Investment Officer; Stephen Auth, CEO of Federated Investor Equities (federatedinvestors.com), Jonathan MacKay, Schroders Investment (schroders.com) Strategist share their views on U.S. Tariffs and the Markets on Bloomberg Markets.

Markets Now: Everything Rallies But the Dow as Tariff Tantrum Peters Out | Barrons.com March 2, 2018: "4:18 p.m. Call it a comeback. Despite the early losses, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% at 2691.25 today, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% to 7257.87, and the small-company  Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 1533.17. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 70.92 points, or 0.3%, to 24,538.06, finished well off its low of the day."

graphic: Wall Street's Charging Bull
Wall Street's Charging Bull
NASDAQ Composite Up 5% This Year:

Wilbur Ross Says Steel Tariffs Are About Jobs and National Security

Bloomberg.com video above published Mar 2, 2018: U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses President Donald Trump's tariff plans with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Bloomberg Markets."

Charting the US Earnings Boost

Financial Times (ft.com) video published Mar 2, 2018: The Trump tax reforms have left US companies flush with cash, and above investing more in their businesses, are boosting returns to investors. The FT.com's US business editor breaks down the numbers.

Percent increase in Q4 2017 earnings by sector


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2018-01-08

2018 Forecasts: From US-China Trade War to Chaos in the Mideast (video)

FT Forecasts 2018: From US-China trade war to chaos in the Mideast

The FT.com's senior commentators give their big predictions for the year ahead, from a US-China trade war, to Silicon Valley (Facebook, Amazon & Google) and regulation, to Theresa May surviving as UK prime minister and chaos in the Middle East. Financial Times video above published Dec 28, 2017.

FT Forecasts 2018: A US-China trade war?

FT.com chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman predicts that next year could see the US aim tariffs at China. If China retaliates with its own tariffs we could see the beginnings of a trade war with implications for the world's trading system. Financial Times video above published Dec 26, 2017.

Are Stocks Still A Good Bet In 2018?

Here's why BlackRock.com’s Kate Moore says yes. Fortune.com video above published Dec 12, 2017.

S&P 500:
 S&P 500
 S&P 500 index up almost 32% since 4 Nov 2016

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