Showing posts with label Wilbur Ross. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wilbur Ross. Show all posts

2018-04-06

Jeffrey Gundlach & Wilbur Ross: Stocks, Bonds, Bitcoin, Tariffs & China

Jeffrey Gundlach On Bonds, Tariffs And Bitcoin

Gundlach: "Bitcoin is the Dot Com of our world today." CNBC.com video above published Apr 4, 2018: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of Doubleline Capital (Domain: doubleline.com), talks bonds, tariffs and bitcoin in an exclusive interview on CNBC's "Fast Money." See also Doubleline Funds webcast-schedule and bitcoin price.

Note also:

VIX
 VIX
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, known by its ticker symbol VIX, is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross Reacts To China's New Tariffs

CNBC.com video above published Apr 4, 2018: In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross says China's new tariffs do not represent a threat to the United States.

NASDAQ Composite UP 2.5% YTD:
 NASDAQ
The NASDAQ Composite (ticker symbol IXIC) is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities (e.g. ADRs, tracking stocks, limited partnership interests) listed on the NASDAQ stock market. Along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (a/k/a Dow or DJIA) and S&P 500 Index, it is one of the three most-followed US stock markets' indices. The composition of the NASDAQ Composite is heavily weighted towards information technology companies.

S&P 500 Index DOWN 0.4% YTD:
 S&P 500

DJIA DOWN 0.87% YTD
 DJIA
The Dow’s (DJIA 30 stocks) decline for the year-to-date primarily comes down to 5 stocks which give a better narrative than the media of how tariff issues are affecting US equity prices: 3M; Caterpillar; Home Depot; Proctor & Gamble; Walmart.

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DISCLAIMER

2018-03-05

Ignore The Noise About Trade Wars: Charting US Earnings Boost (video)

Stephen Auth Says Everyone Knows That The Chinese Have Been Cheating On Steel

Bloomberg.com video above published Mar 2, 2018: Michael Collins, PMG Fixed Income, Senior Investment Officer; Stephen Auth, CEO of Federated Investor Equities (federatedinvestors.com), Jonathan MacKay, Schroders Investment (schroders.com) Strategist share their views on U.S. Tariffs and the Markets on Bloomberg Markets.

Markets Now: Everything Rallies But the Dow as Tariff Tantrum Peters Out | Barrons.com March 2, 2018: "4:18 p.m. Call it a comeback. Despite the early losses, the S&P 500 finished up 0.5% at 2691.25 today, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% to 7257.87, and the small-company  Russell 2000 climbed 1.7% to 1533.17. Even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 70.92 points, or 0.3%, to 24,538.06, finished well off its low of the day."

graphic: Wall Street's Charging Bull
Wall Street's Charging Bull
NASDAQ Composite Up 5% This Year:

Wilbur Ross Says Steel Tariffs Are About Jobs and National Security

Bloomberg.com video above published Mar 2, 2018: U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross discusses President Donald Trump's tariff plans with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Bloomberg Markets."

Charting the US Earnings Boost

Financial Times (ft.com) video published Mar 2, 2018: The Trump tax reforms have left US companies flush with cash, and above investing more in their businesses, are boosting returns to investors. The FT.com's US business editor breaks down the numbers.

Percent increase in Q4 2017 earnings by sector


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DISCLAIMER

2017-01-22

News Review: New gTLDs Registry Rightside Sells eNom, What's Next?

News Review | ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of internet domain news:

Feature •  Surprise announcements by buyer and seller early Friday, Presidential Inauguration Day in the U.S., new gTLDs registry operator Rightside Group, Ltd. (NASDAQ: NAME), sold its domain registrar business operating under the brand name eNom (eNom.com), to Tucows Inc. (domain: tucows.com) (NASDAQ: TCX) (TO.TC), and investors apparently liked the "win-win" deal:
  1. Dave Wilson's stock of the day: Tucows NASDAQ:TCX (audio mp3) 
  2. Both $TCX and $NAME ended UP Friday, although Tucows had the larger gain:
NASDAQ: TCX
NASDAQ: NAME
"These two businesses have been competing for over 15 years. We know and respect each other. Each business also has particular strengths. Following completion of the transaction, we will continue to operate the acquired eNom properties under their current brands and we’ll maintain the existing reseller APIs, as well as the eNom accreditation, which means there will be no bulk migration of names required. We will also maintain the Seattle office."--Tucows CEO Elliot Noss, Conference Call Jan. 20, 2017. See also Tucows SEC filings.
Tucows' CEO Elliot Noss acknowledged eNom's growth prospects were neutral to negative but cited anticipated cost synergies over the next 24 months and the deal's additional cash generation as justification for the acquisition in a conference call and webcast Friday which is available for replay.

UPDATE Jan 24, 2017: $TCX UP 35% since Jan 19th close:

Toronto-based Tucows is a provider of network access, domain names and other Internet services, including Ting (ting.com) mobile phone service and fixed internet access, OpenSRS (opensrs.com) domain registrar services (15 million domain names, a global reseller network of over 13,000 web hosts and ISPs), as well as Hover (hover.com), a domain name registrar. More information can be found on Tucows’ corporate website (http://tucows.com) and on Domain Mondo at Tucows Acquires eNom & Becomes World's 2nd Largest Domain Registrar.  As a result of the deal, Domain Mondo has added Tucows Inc. (TC.TO) to its quarterly earnings coverage list.

What's in the deal for Rightside? Besides the press release which cited the "divestiture" as enhancing "Rightside's ability to make additional investments in the Registry business as the market for new domains continues to develop," we may know more after the Rightside conference call and audio webcast with investors and analysts Monday, January 23, at 4:30 p.m. ET (1:30 p.m. PT): LIVE webcast
Live conference call: (844) 413-1777 (domestic) or (716) 247-5761 (international)
Conference call replay available through January 28, 2017: (855) 859-2056 (domestic) or (404) 537-3406 (international); Conference ID: 57050879; LIVE webcast and archived webcast at http://www.rightside.market.
UPDATE Jan 23, 2017 4:30 PM ET --Listen to webcast and eNom Divestiture Presentation (pdf 338.8 KB). Tucows $TCX closed UP Monday, Jan 23rd, and Rightside $NAME closed DOWN:

Rightside's filing with the SEC in connection with the deal stated, in part:
"On January 20, 2017, Rightside Group, Ltd. (“Rightside” or the “Company”) and its wholly owned subsidiaries, Rightside Operating Co. (“Seller”) and eNom, Incorporated (“eNom”) entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Tucows Inc. (“Tucows”) and Tucows (Emerald), LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tucows Inc. (the “Purchaser”), pursuant to which the Purchaser will purchase Rightside’s eNom business through the purchase of all of the outstanding stock of eNom from Seller in exchange for $83.5 million, less a net working capital adjustment of $6.8 million, resulting in net cash at closing of $76.7 million (the “Transaction”). The purchase price is subject to customary adjustments following the closing, including a working capital adjustment to the extent such amount is greater or less than the estimated net working capital amount determined at closing. At the closing, the Company will pay transaction expenses of approximately $4.0 million and substantially all of its existing indebtedness. The transaction is expected to close on January 20, 2017."
That SEC filing also disclosed (emphasis added):
" ... On January 20, 2017, the Company entered into a Limited Consent and Amendment No. 4 to Credit Agreement (the “Amendment”) by and among the Company, its domestic subsidiaries Rightside Operating Co. and eNom (together with the Company, the “U.S. Borrowers”), its foreign subsidiaries DMIH Limited, United TLD Holdco Ltd. and Rightside Domains Europe Limited (collectively the “Non-U.S. Borrowers” and together with the U.S. Borrowers, the “Borrowers”), Hot Media, Inc. and Acquire this Name, Inc., as guarantors, and Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”), as lender and collateral agent. The Amendment revises the terms of the Company’s existing Credit Agreement, dated as of August 1, 2014, as amended (the “SVB Credit Facility”), by and among the Borrowers and SVB, which provided a $30.0 million revolving loan facility with a $15.0 million subfacility for the issuance of letters of credit. The Amendment, among other changes, releases eNom as a party to the SVB Credit Facility and the assets sold in the Transaction from the collateral securing the obligations under the SVB Credit Facility; suspends the availability period for revolving loans, requires the Company to repay the outstanding revolving loans in full and reinstates the availability period once the Company satisfies certain conditions, including further amendments to the SVB Credit Facility and delivery of projections giving effect to the Transaction; lowers the total commitment from $30.0 million to $15.0 million; suspends the application of the financial covenants until the availability period for revolving loans is reinstated; and amends the financial covenants that will have effect once the availability period for the revolving loans is reinstated, including the maximum consolidated net leverage ratio, minimum liquidity ratio and minimum consolidated EBITDA. The Amendment further consents to the Transaction." 
Friday's closing price on Rightside ($NAME) gave it a market capitalization of $178.9 million. Rightside stated Friday in its press release: "Following the transaction, Rightside will be in a strong financial position with approximately $90 million in cash on its balance sheet."  Subtract the $90 million in cash, and the market is valuing Rightside's remaining businesses, principally Name.com registrar and Rightside registry (new gTLDs), at $88.9 million. In July, 2016, Rightside rejected an unsolicited offer from privately-held Donuts to buy Rightside's new gTLDs for $70 million in an all-cash deal.

Question: Is the market overvaluing or undervaluing Rightside's remaining businesses?  See Rightside Q3 2016 financial results. It will be interesting to see the Q4 2016 and Q1 2017 financial results.

Other Internet Domain News:

•   It doesn't matter how many new gTLDs ICANN creates because We're Going to Run Out of Company Names | Bloomberg.com: "There is a numeric limit to the universe of names, the combinations of letters of five syllables or less that are pronounceable, avoid offense in principal languages, and are not someone else’s property."

•   Select ICANN officers and staff may have been busy partying this past week in Davos at the World Economic Forum as in past years when Fadi Chehade was ICANN President and CEO. The ICANN website offered little new "news" and, e.g., the Litigation Documents page has not been updated in weeks.

•  Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has not forgotten about ICANN and the IANA transition, nor China, free speech, and tech, raising those issues at the confirmation hearing of  Wilbur Ross, Trump's pick for Commerce Secretary, this week (2:50:33-2:52:52):



•  Fairness & Due Process Require Changes to ICANN's "Updated Supplementary Procedures" to the IRP | circleid.com. See Updated Supplementary Procedures for Independent Review Process (IRP) | ICANN.org: close date 25 Jan 2017 23:59 UTC 1 Feb 2017 23:59 UTC.

•   ICYMI:

•  Author of anti-net neutrality “Internet Freedom Act” gains leadership position | Ars Technica: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who has tried to overturn net neutrality rules and help states impose limits on municipal broadband, will be the new chairperson of a Congressional telecommunications subcommittee, the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Communications and Technology. She takes over from Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR.). See also: Don't Kill Net Neutrality. It’s Good for People and Business | WIRED.com.

•  Turkey Moves to Block Internet Access | voanews.com: "analysts and civil society organizations say the Erdogan administration has begun moving aggressively to restrict internet and mobile phone access to the rest of the web — and for the first time, is showing no signs of backing off any time soon." See also: Turkey Increases Internet Restrictions | voanews.com.

•  John McAfee’s 3 major cybersecurity predictions for 2017 (via CSOOnline.com):
1. IoT denial of service attacks on major internet companies, like the one carried out on Dyn earlier year will become commonplace, and the severity will be orders of magnitude greater than what we have seen;
2. The anti-virus paradigm will finally been seen as a dead paradigm ... the world must move to proactive systems;
3. Intelligence agencies will finally accept the fact that a sophisticated nation state can perpetrate any hack and make it point to any nation or agency that they choose.

•  4 most popular posts (# of pageviews Sun-Sat) this past week on DomainMondo.com:
  1. US Intel Community's 'Nazi-like' Tactics, Media Hysteria & Trump (video)
  2. Confirmation Hearings LIVE: Trump's Cabinet Nominees (video)
  3. News Review: ICANN Accountability WS2 & Consensus 'ICANN Style'
  4. TechReview | Apple Going 'Hollywood' With New Content Plan (video)

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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DISCLAIMER

2017-01-21

TechReview | President Trump, Silicon Valley & Washington, Tech & Jobs

Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news:

Feature •  President Trump, Silicon Valley & Washington: Berkshire Hathaway Independent Director Susan Decker discusses President Trump’s approach to technology and the relationship between Washington and Silicon Valley. She speaks with Caroline Hyde on “Bloomberg Technology” on January 18th in the following two videos,:

Decker: Washington and Silicon Valley Need Each Other

Susan Decker: Yahoo Sale Was Inevitable:

Berkshire Hathaway Independent Director Susan Decker discusses Verizon’s deal for Yahoo, hacks at the internet giant, media scrutiny of Marissa Mayer, and Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile. She speaks with Caroline Hyde on “Bloomberg Technology” on January 18, 2017. See also: Warren Buffett Supports Trump on Cabinet Picks ‘Overwhelmingly’ | Bloomberg.com.

Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, Wilbur Ross, at his confirmation hearing: "Well I think all aspects of internet need encouragement. There are issues, technical issues, privacy issues and such as that come up. So it's not a simple subject, but when President-elect Trump convened the meeting of the high tech CEO's some weeks ago, he was kind enough to have me very much involved with that. I was impressed with how willing the high tech people were to work with the new administration to try to deal with these kinds of issues, even though as it happened during the campaign, we were not necessarily the recipient of much support from them. So I think that was a very good thing, and some of those leaders have followed up with me subsequently with more specific suggestions."

Feature •  Technology and jobs (2 videos):

Rimer: Tech Companies Creating More Value Than Destroying

Index Venture co-founder and Partner Neil Rimer discusses tech disruption, employee skill sets and his tech investment thoughts. He speaks with Caroline Hyde on "Bloomberg Technology" (18 Jan 2017).

Why China Is Concerned Over Foxconn's U.S. Plans

China’s government has conveyed its concern over Foxconn Technology Group billionaire Terry Gou’s plan to expand the Apple assembler’s operations in the U.S. after President-elect Donald Trump takes office, people familiar with the matter said. Bloomberg gadfly columnist Tim Culpan reports on "Bloomberg Technology" (17 Jan 2017).

•  Other Tech News / Quick Takes:

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DISCLAIMER

2017-01-19

Trump Era: Markets, IPOs, Economy, Trade, Tax Reform, 4% Growth?

S&P 500 Index (source google.com)
The S&P 500 closed up Wednesday (chart above) and has gained 6.18% since Trump's election on Nov. 8th.

Tom Barrack on Donald Trump's Inauguration and Cabinet Picks:

Video above published Jan 18, 2017: Colony Capital Founder and Executive Chairman Tom Barrack discusses the inauguration of President-Elect Donald Trump and the make-up of his cabinet.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: Donald Trump's Reforms Could Cause Economic Growth

Video above published Jan 18, 2017: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon talks about tax reform and President-elect Trump's economic policies.

NYSE Chief: Trump May Bring Better Times for Public Companies:

NYSE President Tom Farley discusses the markets under a Trump administration and his outlook for the future for public companies and IPOs. He speaks with Erik Schatzker from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on "Bloomberg Markets" on January 17, 2017.

Wilbur Ross: I'm Not Anti-Trade, I'm Pro-Sensible Trade

Video above published Jan 18, 2017: Wilbur Ross, chairman and chief strategy officer at WL Ross testifies at his confirmation hearing for Secretary of Commerce. Full hearing video here.

Dow Chemical CEO: 4% Growth Is Possible Under Trump

Video above published Jan 17, 2017: Andrew Liveris, Dow Chemical CEO, explains what is needed to spark four percent growth in the U.S. economy and shares the details of talks with President-elect Donald Trump on stimulating manufacturing growth. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."


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DISCLAIMER

2017-01-17

Confirmation Hearings LIVE: Trump's Cabinet Nominees (video)

Treasury Secretary Nominee Steven Mnuchin - Senate Confirmation Hearing Jan 19, 10am ET:

Starts at 10 a.m. ET, Senate Finance Committee. "The confirmation hearing on Thursday for Steven Mnuchin, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary, is expected to be divisive and fiery." –TheHill.com

Watch LIVE and Replay: Wilbur Ross's confirmation hearing for Commerce Secretary:

Starts: January 18, 2017, 10 am ET

WATCH Betsy DeVos confirmation hearing:

Watch LIVE and replay above (replay also available here and here): Betsy DeVos confirmation hearing to be Secretary of Education, Tuesday, January 17, 2017, 5:00 pm ET, before the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.

Of greatest interest to investors this week:

Wednesday:
Wilbur Ross (see video above)
Nomination: Secretary of Commerce
Hearing: 10 a.m. ET, Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Thursday:
Steven Mnuchin (see video above)
Nomination: Treasury Secretary
Hearing: 10 a.m. ET, Senate Finance Committee

Coverage of confirmation hearings also via c-span.org
Complete list of confirmation hearings listed here.

See also:

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DISCLAIMER

2017-01-16

MacroView | Team Trump Shuns Davos | U.S. Dollar Set To Soar?

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • Davos a/k/a  World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting, will be held 17-20 January 2017, at Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, with Chinese President Xi Jinping speaking at the opening plenary and leading "an 80-strong delegation" of Chinese business executives and billionaires to the annual gathering of global elitists. Although WEF founder Klaus Schwab met with members of Trump’s staff in December, Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks told Bloomberg.com that “No one will be attending.”  Another senior member of Trump’s transition told Bloomberg that the gathering of billionaires and political leaders represents "the power structure that fueled the populist anger that helped Trump win the presidential election." See Davos Wonders If It’s Part of the Problem | Bloomberg.com:
"Kenneth Rogoff can pinpoint the moment he started to grow concerned Donald Trump would be the next U.S. president: It was when Rogoff’s fellow attendees at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting last January said it could never happen. “A joke I’ve told 1,000 people in the months since leaving Davos is that the conventional wisdom of Davos is always wrong,” says the Harvard professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. “No matter how improbable, the event most likely to happen is the opposite of whatever the Davos consensus is.” The repeated failure of business and political elites to predict what’s coming—last year, that included the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union—doesn’t strike those returning this month to the Swiss Alps as very funny. After a year in which political upsets roiled financial markets and killed off the careers of once-dominant Davos-going politicians, the concern for delegates attending this year’s meeting isn’t that their forecasts are often wrong, but that their worldview is." (emphasis added)
See also:

MacroView Feature • The U.S. Dollar Set To Soar?:
"[U.S.] dollars (USD) have a variety of utility value. They can used to buy other goods and services globally, serve as collateral for loans, earn interest with low transaction costs when converted into U.S. Treasury bonds, and so on. In certain ways, USD offer more utility value than gold or any tangible form of collateral/capital. If we refuse to recognize the high utility value of USD and its global ease of flow, then we will continue to misunderstand the demand for the dollar and its appreciation."--Charles Hugh Smith

Goldman Sachs alum and investor Raoul Pal: “Looking at the shortfall of dollars and what is happening in the world right now, I think it could probably rally something like 75% from its low, so that’s still a long way from here. My personal target for the last six years has been the euro goes to 75 cents against the dollar and the yen at 200.”-- Here’s why the U.S. dollar could soar by another 30% | MarketWatch.com. See also Bitcoin Collapses, Chinese Latecomers Get Fleeced | WolfStreet.com: "The People’s Bank of China announced on Wednesday that it is probing the major bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai – BTCC, Huobi, and OKCoin – for a list of violations, including market manipulation, money laundering, and unauthorized financing. This is part of the PBOC’s efforts to crack down on capital flight ... The yuan lost 6.5% against the dollar last year, its worst year since 1994 ..."

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:

•  Billionaire investors and the Trump Rally: Carl Icahn, now appointed Trump's special adviser on regulation, says he left Trump's electoral victory party in the early hours of the morning of November 9th, to bet about $1 billion on U.S. equities. Icahn told a TV interviewer in early November that while the U.S. economy still faced a number of problems, Trump's victory represented "a major step in the right direction." WSJ.com reports billionaire investor (and Clinton supporter) George Soros lost nearly $1 billion in the weeks after the Trump election (Soros thought the stock market would decline), while Soros's ex-deputy, Stanley Druckenmiller, profited by betting on the post-election Trump rally in the stock market.

•  Jim Chanos warns markets could be on verge of historic shift: For famed short-seller Jim Chanos, the big question for investors is to decide is "whether Trump's victory represents a major once-in-fifty-year sea-change in thinking about capitalism. If it is then you have to pay attention," he says. Chanos added, "if we look at the events of 2016 – Brexit, the Italian referendum, Trump, and the rise of nationalist China – are these the harbingers of something bigger? Or are they just a coincidence? The ground seems to be fertile for things to change globally." If so, this would have huge implications for investors: "If we're in one of those periods now – if 2016 is like 1932 or 1979 – then you not only have to change your portfolio, you have to change your lifestyle ... If this is a major shift to populism, nationalism, greater state involvement, and less globalism, then you really have to rethink almost everything in your life."

•  Clinton Foundation shutting down the Clinton Global Initiative: Legal Notice filed with State of New York gives a "layoff date" of April 15, 2017, for the 22 affected employees. Whether the Clinton Foundation will also close is unknown. ZeroHedge.com reported donations to the foundation have collapsed "as the political cout of the 'charitable' organization dried up and as the opportunity for any future 'quid pro quo' is now effectively gone," while also noting that a FBI investigation into the Clinton Foundation regarding allegations of corruption is still ongoing.

•  Trump's Cabinet nominees appear to be on track for confirmation. The most impressive person among the stellar group thus far? Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson who testified for nine hours without notes and showed an impressive knowledge of global issues, watch video of the hearing here. See also: LIVE Video: Secretary of Defense & CIA Director Confirmation Hearings. Coming up this week is the Wilbur Ross hearing, nominee for Secretary of Commerce, at 10:00 a.m., Wednesday, before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.

•  Inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 45th President of the United States is set for Friday, January 20, 2017, see 58pic2017.org for more information.
U.S. Marines in the 2013 inauguration parade
One More Thing: 

Have You Heard the Latest Fake News from the Washington Post, New York Times, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Sunday Times, The Guardian, BuzzFeed et al?

Trump Aides Deny Sunday Times Report of Putin Iceland Summit | Bloomberg.com: "That is 100 percent false,” a Trump aide said late Sunday.
“If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're mis-informed.”--Mark Twain
Why Did BuzzFeed Publish the Trump Dossier? | The Atlantic.com: "In distributing a set of inflammatory allegations that it admitted it could not vouch for, BuzzFeed sidestepped [violated] a basic principle of journalism ... The reporter’s job is not to simply dump as much information as possible into the public domain, though that can at times be useful too, as some of WikiLeaks’ revelations have shown. It is to gather information, sift through it, and determine what is true and what is not. The point of a professional journalist corps is to have people whose job it is to do that work on behalf of society, and who can cultivate sources and expertise to help them adjudicate it. A pluralistic press corps is necessary to avoid monolithic thinking among reporters, but transparent transmission of misinformation is no more helpful or clarifying than no information at all."--David A. Graham, a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covers U.S. politics and global news.

Read the tweet below carefully. This is journalism?

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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DISCLAIMER

2016-10-17

MacroView: Gradually and Then Suddenly, How Markets & Companies Fail

MacroView | © DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature  •  Sometimes you don’t exactly notice how bad things really are. It’s not always as apparent as it would seem.--Sarah Dunn

Gradually and Then Suddenly: In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, one character asks another how he went bust. The response is a classic: “Two ways, gradually and then suddenly." That's how companies, governments, pension funds, and individuals often fail:
"And it’s how conditions in complex markets shift as well. The underlying circumstances that shape the environment in which you operate can evolve at a snail’s pace, and then shift quickly, either as new actions are introduced, or as the agglomeration of changes reaching a tipping point."--strategy-business.com
Wilbur Ross: U.S. Recession Likely in Next 18 Months:

Video above published on Oct 14, 2016: Billionaire distressed-debt investor Wilbur Ross, chairman of WL Ross & Co., comments on U.S. financial markets and the possibility of a recession. He speaks during an interview with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Markets."

Gradually and then suddenly?
•  Goldman Sachs Sees Shock Potential for U.S., European Stocks | Bloomberg.com: "Political risks, exacerbated by a weak economy in Europe and high stock prices in the U.S., make those markets vulnerable to declines in the next three months. The firm projects that the S&P 500 Index and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index will each drop by about 2 percent by December." See also Goldman Tells Clients To Go To Cash As "Growth Shocks" Are Coming | ZeroHedge.com.

•  Next European bank bombshell: DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach dropped a new name to worry about on the European bank front. He says if “push comes to shove,” the German government will support Deutsche Bank. “But what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”--MarketWatch.com. Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo is matching Credit Suisse’s year-to-date losses. Spain’s Banco Popular is down 60% year-to-date. Gundlach has also said the ECB’s negative-interest-rate policy is running the risk of bankrupting its lenders, and Deutsche is a poster child for this: “You cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system.”

•  Rail Freight Gets Clocked from all Sides in this Economy | Wolf Street: "Total US freight rail traffic, as measured in carloads and intermodal units, fell 6.1% in the week ended October 8, from the same week last year, the Association of American Railroads reported today. It was down 10% from the same week two years ago." See also: Freight Rail Traffic Plunges: Haunting Pictures of Transportation Recession | Wolf Street.

•  ‘Bulletproof’ Public Pensions | NYTimes.com: "The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, said Loyalton had 30 days to hand over $1.6 million, more than its entire annual budget, to fund the pensions of its four retirees. Otherwise, Loyalton stood to become the first place in California — perhaps in the nation — where a powerful state retirement system cut retirees’ pensions because their town was a deadbeat." See also The state government pension crisis: You will be made to care | Washington Examiner.

•  Sheila Bair called the financial crisis but her new nightmare is student loans: "The problem is much worse," Bair replied. "The percentage of [former] students in distress on their student loans is significantly higher than we saw during the subprime crisis."--Bloomberg.com

•  Chinese Property Owners are in for a Very Rude Awakening, but the Damage Will Reverberate around Globe --WolfStreet.com: "The biggest bubble in history." See also: Wall St. Tumbles After China Trade Report Disappoints | NYTimes.com 13 Oct 2016: "Data showed that China’s exports last month fell 10 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, compared with a 2.8 percent fall in August."

•  Starbucks held $1.2 billion in customer funds loaded onto Starbucks cards and its app as of Q1 2016, according to MarketWatch.com based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Starbucks holds more money than some banks hold in deposits. But Starbucks doesn't have to worry about the most powerful man in banking, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo, who heads the Fed’s Committee on Bank Supervision. Tarullo took office at the Fed in 2009 at a moment of broad public support for a more aggressive tack and has pressed that advantage ever since. His influence ranges over everything from corporate strategy to how many billions of dollars banks must maintain in capital. Through the stress tests he championed to evaluate how banks might fare in another market shock, the Fed wields control over whether banks can raise the dividends they pay to shareholders--WSJ.com. See also: “All organizations with sales goals are going to be susceptible to falsified sales records,” said Kane, who worked at Wells Fargo in the 1980s and ’90s before founding Kane Bank Services, which focuses on bank sales practices.--LATimes.com

•  Canada’s Big Bet on Fiscal Stimulus Drawing Global Attention: "Trudeau’s move to lean on infrastructure spending to boost growth is regaining currency"--WSJ.com

•  Week ahead: U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold their final debate in Las Vegas on October 19, 2016, 9:00-10:30 pm EDT. The moderator is Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, who will question each nominee. Watch LIVE online here. See also: Glenn Greenwald: WikiLeaks Emails Clearly Show Serious Media Impropriety | Mediaite.com and In the Democratic Echo Chamber, Inconvenient Truths Are Recast as Putin Plots | TheIntercept.com by Glenn Greenwald: "... The tactics they [Democrats] are now embracing will endure past the election, making them worthy of scrutiny. Those tactics now most prominently include dismissing away any facts or documents that reflect negatively on their leaders as fake, and strongly insinuating that anyone who questions or opposes those leaders is a stooge or agent of the Kremlin, tasked with a subversive and dangerously un-American mission on behalf of hostile actors in Moscow. To see how extreme and damaging this behavior has become, let’s just quickly examine two utterly false claims that Democrats over the past four days — led by party-loyal journalists — have disseminated and induced thousands of people, if not more, to believe ..." See also: It’s Official: This Election Is Driving Americans Nuts | Bloomberg.com and Most "news" is misinformation | DomainMondo.com.

One more reading recommendation:
•  "In order for investors to beat the performance of an index fund they must have a view that is different than the crowd and they must be right about that different view."--A Half Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Robert Cialdini’s book “Influence” | 25iq/com

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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