Showing posts with label Risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risk. Show all posts

2017-10-16

German Finance Minister Schäuble Warns of Global Financial Crisis (video)

Schäuble warns of financial crisis

Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Oct 9, 2017: Outgoing German finance chief says central bank policies risk forming ‘new bubbles’--Wolfgang Schäuble has warned that spiralling levels of global debt and liquidity present a serious risk to the world economy, in his parting shot as Germany’s finance minister.

See also:
  • Austria election 2017 results 15 Oct 2017: Eurosceptic Conservative Millennial Sebastian Kurz, age 31, declares victory--Europe's youngest leader--'Brussels Nightmare'
  • FT.comParis and Berlin at odds over key plank of eurozone reform plans
  • Merkel's Party Suffers Vote Setback in Germany's Lower Saxony on Sunday, Oct 15, 2017, with the poorest showing in 58 years for Angela Merkel's party, the CDU, in Lower Saxony (a German state larger than the Netherlands), further weakening Merkel as she tries to form an "awkward" alliance with pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and environmentalist Greens. Negotiations could well drag into 2018, reports Reuters.com.
What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in Common

Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 9, 2017: Most people would agree that the bond market is expensive. But is it in a bubble? Alan Greenspan thinks so. So will this bubble be popping anytime soon? Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro explains. #BondBubble



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2017-08-02

Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks on Market Warning, Risks, FAANGs (video)

Oaktree's Howard Marks on Market Warning, Risks, FAANGs

Aug.01, 2017: Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital (domain: oaktreecapital.com), discusses his latest memo that urges investors to reduce risks, the value of FAANG stocks, and his current take on investor behavior. He speaks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
Memos from Howard Marks: "... I think it’s better to turn cautious too soon (and thus perhaps underperform for a while) rather than too late, after the downslide has begun, making it hard to trim risk, achieve exits and cut losses ..."
Excerpt:

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2017-05-19

Do Business Anywhere: Alibaba CEO Says Digital Tech Changing Retail

Davos 2017: Alibaba CEO Says Digital Tech is Changing Retail

Video above published Jan 18, 2017: Digital technology is drastically changing the way consumers shop for goods and services, and traditional retailers worldwide need to adapt by accelerating the integration of bricks-and-mortar with e-commerce to create new shopping experiences, Alibaba Group CEO Daniel Zhang told business elites at the 2017 World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland:
“In China shopping malls are very big. People get lost and cannot easily find the store, or their cars in the car parks. So how (do we) use technology to give people a better experience, a seamless experience between online and offline? And how can we give people a totally different experience, say you want to buy a beverage? One possibility is to order and have it delivered to your home, but why not order and have it delivered to your next stop?”
Zhang participated in a January 17th panel discussion on the future of consumption at the World Economic Forum meeting. Alibaba Group Executive Chairman Jack Ma and Eric Jing, CEO of Alibaba-affiliated fintech company Ant Financial, also appeared at the annual Davos confab.

During the future of consumption discussion, which included Wal-Mart CEO Doug McMillon and Heineken CEO Jean-Francois Boxmeer, panelists agreed that the consumer experience—and consumer products companies—will be reshaped during the “Fourth Industrial Revolution,” which is being driven by technological advances in fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT), autonomous vehicles and 3D printing.

“People will still go to the pub, and still go to the shop,” Boxmeer said, “but technology will revolutionize manufacturing in many, many ways. The digitalization of the economy has really changed how we work, and what we do today is absolutely not the way we did it 30 years ago … although we still bring you a bottle of beer.”

Helping to drive this revolution, Zhang said, is the increasing ability of companies to gather and, using AI and other technologies, analyze vast amounts of data to better understand, connect with and serve customers. “Data technology today is so far mainly on the sell side” in digital marketing,” he said. “Looking ahead, the technology will change more on the supply side, because we can get real-time customer and sales data so manufacturers can react to specific demand at the right occasions. We talk about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the IoT (Internet of Things), all of these things are based on data. As long as we have the data, we can change the entire business.”

Alibaba Group, the world’s largest e-commerce company, is already positioning itself not as an e-commerce platform “but as a data platform,” Zhang said. But even as the company urges retailers that sell in China through the company’s giant online marketplaces to join the Big Data revolution, Alibaba itself feels the pressure to adapt. Earlier this month, Alibaba Group offered to privatize Intime Retail, a top China department store and mall operator, a move the company said will help pave the way for the digital transformation of old-school retailing.

The biggest risk we have today for our sustainability is disruption, disruptive technology and disruptive business model,” Zhang said. A few years ago, the company was surprised by how fast smartphones and the mobile internet proliferated in China. “We invested a lot to construct our leading mobile commerce app,” Zhang said. “Today we are very proud to say we are the largest mobile commerce company in the world. But if you look back, the process was very tough, if we could not change fast, then we would be killed by this new technology. So today, I always ask my team one question: whats the next entry point of the internet?” Zhang said. “You can have a lot of answers but we have to change fast. If we don’t want to be killed by new technology, then we should kill ourselves using new technology.

Note: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) announced March Quarter 2017 and full Fiscal Year 2017 results on May 18, 2017: Alibaba Group $BABA FY17 Results LIVE Webcast May 18 Replay.

Alibaba Group: Making it Easy to do Business Anywhere

Video above published Jan 17, 2017: From a lotus farmer in a rural Chinese village to an apple farmer in the state of Washington, see how Alibaba has empowered entrepreneurs and improved lives.


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2016-07-07

London Property Market: Massive Undersupply, Cheap Pound, Uncertainty

Massive Undersupply in London Property Market: Knight Frank

Knight Frank (knightfrank.com) global head of research Liam Bailey discusses the impact of the Brexit vote on the U.K. property market for long-term investors and speculators. He speaks with Bloomberg TV Malaysia's Sophie Kamaruddin, July 5, 2016. See also: ‘Panic’ Withdrawals Halt Four More U.K. Property Funds | Bloomberg.com and British Pound-US Dollar Chart.

“Never let a good crisis go to waste”--Winston Churchill
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”--Warren Buffett

Andrea Leadsom: 'I want to make the UK the greatest country on Earth':

The energy minister and a leading Leave campaigner, Andrea Leadsom, responded to accusations of hypocrisy, made in the Mail on Sunday, which referred to a speech she gave in 2013 - to the Hansard Society - warning about the dangers of leaving the EU. Speaking to Andrew Marr, she rejected the accusations of hypocrisy, and said she had argued for radical change of the European Union. On her bid to be the next Conservative leader and prime minister, she said: "The next person to lead this country has to somebody who believes in the opportunity of leaving the EU." Published July 3, 2016.
UPDATE: Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom Will Run-Off in Race to Be Next U.K. Prime Minister: Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom will face off in an all-female battle to succeed David Cameron as U.K. prime minister and lead the country’s negotiations to leave the European Union.--Bloomberg.com  See also:  Brexit Postscript: FTSE100 Roars, Theresa May, Sword in Hand, Next PM? | DomainMondo.com

John Gray's article: The strange death of liberal politics | NewStatesman.com"... Europe’s image as a safe option has given way to the realisation that it is a failed experiment. A majority of British voters grasped this fact, which none of our establishments has yet understoodNo single leader or party is responsible for the debacle of the Remain camp. It is true that gross errors were made in the course of the campaign. Telling voters who were considering voting Leave that they were stupid, illiterate, xenophobic and racist was never going to be an effective way of persuading them to change their views. The litany of insults voiced by some leaders of the Remain campaign expressed their sentiments towards millions of ordinary people. It did not occur to these advanced minds that their contempt would be reciprocated ..." (emphasis added)

See also: Deutsche Bank $DB $DBK, Italian Banks, Approaching a 'Lehman Moment'? | DomainMondo.com

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2016-05-06

US Recession Risk: Slow Growth Economy, Small Business Optimism Low

Evercore CEO: We're 'Close to the End of the Line' for Monetary Stimulus:

Evercore CEO: We've Got A Slow Growth Economy That Is Vulnerable Ralph Schlosstein, chief executive officer at Evercore Partners, evercore.com, discusses the restrictions of monetary policy and the need for a move to fiscal policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›", published by Bloomberg.com May 4, 2016.

Video below: Survey Reports Small Business Optimism Hits 3-Year Low

Despite a strengthening employment picture nationwide, a new Bank of America survey indicates less than a quarter of small business owners plan to hire new employees in 2016 amid pessimism about economic growth. Bank of America's Sue Lonergan and small business owner Sal Rizzo join Lunch Break with Tanya Rivero to discuss. Published by WSJ.com on May 4, 2016

Video below: World markets continue to behave as though there is a risk of a US recession

America's profits recession | Authers' Note: John Authers looks at profits and revenues data to try to explain why. Published by FT.com on May 4, 2016.




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2015-10-20

The Unicorn Trap: Sky High Valuations Kill IPOs For Tech Startups

  • startups have never been cheaper to build and are maturing faster than fledgling companies did in the last tech boom, partly because the smartphone era creates an easily reachable market of two billion people
  • yet only 14% of IPOs in the U.S. were done by tech companies, the smallest percentage since at least the mid-1990s, according to Dealogic
  • the market for initial public offerings has turned chilly and inhospitable, largely because technology companies have sought valuations above what public investors are willing to pay
  • venture capital investors could have trouble cashing in if the IPO market isn’t able to support even higher valuations
  • lower valuations as a private or public company also can sap the morale of startup employees who endure pressure and all-nighters in return for the possibility of a big payday 
  • an analysis of funding rounds by law firm Fenwick & West LLP in March found that 30% of private companies valued at $1 billion or more promised a specified IPO price ... [some] companies agreed to give additional equity to investors if the IPO price wasn’t met
The problem“The thing that worries me the most about all these [billion-dollar valuations] is that you need a public market to get liquid,” says Chris Douvos, managing director of Venture Investment Associates, a Peapack, N.J., firm that invests in funds and startups. “But who’s going to buy at these valuations? It’s all priced for perfection.”

The riskThe data suggest that even some of the most promising startups in Silicon Valley might be worth far less in the eyes of the rest of the investment world. The risk is that the lackluster reception for tech startups in the stock market could ricochet through companies that are still private.

source: Wall Street Journal

Further reading: Price and Value: Discerning the Difference (pdf) (Aswath Damodaran, NYU Stern)




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2015-10-19

Sequoia's Michael Moritz: Venture Capital Is 'High-Risk Poker' (video)



'We'll see extinct unicorns' - Sequoia's Michael Moritz: Venture Capital Is 'High-Risk Poker' - Michael Moritz, Sequoia Capital's chairman and a British honorary knight, comments on venture capital during an interview with Bloomberg's Emily Chang on "Studio 1.0." Published on Oct 19, 2015

Sequoia Capital is an American venture capital firm located in Menlo Park, California, United States.

Domain name: sequoiacap.com

re: risk, investing, VC, venture capital, unicorns, extinct unicorns, ratchet, high-risk poker




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2014-07-14

Words of Wisdom for Domainers from Warren Buffett

Words of wisdom for domainers from Warren Buffett:

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.

Honesty is a very expensive gift. Don't expect it from cheap people.

If you've been playing poker for half an hour and you still don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy.

No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.

The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.

Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.

It’s better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you’ll drift in that direction.

I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business. I do it because I like this kind of life.

The difference between successful people and very successful people is that very successful people say 'no' to almost everything. 

  – Warren Buffett





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