Showing posts with label misinformation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label misinformation. Show all posts

2017-06-10

Tech Review: China's Tech Nationalism, One Belt, One Road (video)

Tech Review (TR 2017-06-10)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech news:

Features • 1) China's Tech Nationalism & One Belt, One Road (videos), 2) Apple $AAPL, 3) Execution, Accountability, Transparency, 4) Marissa's Yahoo Paycheck, 5) Viral Misinformation, 6) TRUMP & Climate Change, 7) ICYMI Tech News.

1) China's Tech Nationalism | OneBelt, One Road (videos)

Will China's Tech Nationalism Hurt Foreign Tech Firms?

Video above published May 16, 2017: At the WSJ CEO Council in Tokyo, Honeywell's Caroline Pan and APCO’s James McGregor discussed China’s effort to develop its high-tech sector, which has raised concerns among foreign tech firms that it will hurt their businesses. [Editor's note: keywords are equality and reciprocity.]

All Aboard China's 'Belt and Road' Extravaganza:

Video above published May 16, 2017: China is trying to build excitement around Xi Jinping's "One Belt, One Road" plan to expand trade with roads, railways and ports. Art installations like "Golden Bridge on Silk Road" and themed commercial products are supporting the campaign.

Other Tech News:

2)  Apple $AAPL: Why You Should Sell Apple Now - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | SeekingAlpha.com and Apple Investors Should Take Cover | SeekingAlpha.com and Apple Services Unlikely To Offset Soft iPhone Sales | SeekingAlpha.com and Will The Apple HomePod Be Successful? | SeekingAlpha.com: "For investors hoping this would be a breakthrough product for Apple, I would advise you to lower your expectations in this regard."

3) Execution, Accountability, Transparency:"There is no innovation without execution .... If you want to do broad ambitious things, you need to be accountable to articulate why it is the right thing to do. You need to be able to write down your basic thesis and the evidence behind it and then defend it. In fact, the more power you hold, the more accountable you need to be to open yourself to honest challenge on either facts or logic. This is even more critical in times of rapid change because the facts and consequential logic might change. Accountability and transparency means you are able to reassess your conclusions and react quickly."--What Really Happened with Vista | HackerNoon.com.

4) Marissa's Yahoo Paycheck: Dissecting Marissa Mayer’s $900,000-a-Week Yahoo Paycheck--Marissa Mayer was paid nearly a quarter of a billion dollars — a generous sum even by Silicon Valley’s lofty standards — while presiding over Yahoo's continued decline.--NYTimes.com.

5) Viral Misinformation--WhatsApp Has A Viral Rumor Problem With Real Consequences: "The private, closed nature of messaging apps makes it impossible to know how many rumors are circulating."--buzzfeed.com

6) TRUMP & Climate Change: Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Paris climate accord might matter less than you'd think. Trump can't stop decarbonization of the economy.--Bloomberg.com

7) ICYMI Tech News Quick Takes:

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2017-01-30

MacroView: First Nine Days of President Trump with Many More To Come

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  Trump has now been President for nine days (noon Jan 20 - noon Jan 29) as I write this--and for those who really think that Friday Executive Order is the only thing that matters, I'll get this out of the way up front, read: Donald Trump’s Refugee Executive Order: No Muslim Ban -- Separating Fact from Hysteria | NationalReview.com.

I agree with Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen writing in Axios.com:
"We can't stress this enough: Watch closely the specific, substantive moves of the Trump White House. Try to block out the white noise of outlandish statements and unforced errors, and the hyperventilating they provoke. Otherwise, you miss the big — and in some cases, radical — changes coming our way. In fact, White House officials tell us they welcome what seem like needless distractions, because it allows them to jam through transformative, disruptive ideas and orders without focused public scrutiny of any particular item ... Read the weekend papers, and flick through cable, and the unambiguous conclusion is that Trump's debut was pretty much a debacle. But was it? If you examine what he did based on what he wants to do and ignore much of what he says for show, this was actually a remarkably productive start. By the White House's count, 13 presidential actions in first week tied to specific campaign promises ..." (emphasis added, read more at link above)
Here's a quick look at some of what Trump did in his first nine days:

The biggest problem for investors and the general public right now is getting accurate news and information without all the hype, hysteria and drama. The news media (MSM) are wellsprings of disinformation and misinformation--Trump's Steve Bannon:
"I'm not talking about everybody, but a big portion of the media--the dishonesty, total deceit and deception. It makes them certainly partially the opposition party, absolutely. I think they're much more capable than the opposition party. The opposition party is losing badly. Now the media is on the opposition party's side."
And as Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote above, the sideshows and media hysteria distract from the real events occurring in plain sight and under the radar that investors (and the public) need to know about. Unfortunately, mainstream media never got over getting the election so wrong ("Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes"), so they abandoned all pretense of journalistic ethics, and wasted weeks unsuccessfully working hand-in-hand with the neo-con/neo-liberal Washington establishment in an attempt to de-legitimize Trump's election, a media crusade which probably reached its nadir with Obama's Democratic-appointee-led "intelligence community" leaking (directly or indirectly), a smear in the form of an unvetted "Russian dossier" published by BuzzFeed which was then given wide coverage through links on CNN and coverage by other major media news operations.

Read: The Reason You Can’t Stand the News Anymore. | Medium.com: "The methods used to fund modern journalism simultaneously undermine trust in the news outlets." That's right, the business models of most news organizations are broken and they are failing financially. Google and Facebook are sucking up most digital ad revenues. News media are desperately competing for clicks, and it is showing--the public have lost trust in the media. Even Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post has taken notice.

So what's an investor (or member of the general public) to do? Unless you want to be swamped by the distortion, noise, spin, and outright false or #FakeNews, you have to carefully consider the source of anything you read or hear, and take time to curate your sources of "news and information." Here's one list I've curated.

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:

•  Jeff Gundlach predicted Trump would win, what's he think now? "It’s typical for the stock market to go up until the inauguration and then fall. It happened with Ronald Reagan, too. I think we will see something similar—it will have a pullback, at a minimum. There will be an attempt to build infrastructure and borrow a lot of money to do it. There will be potential for a pick-up in growth, an increase in interest rates, which has already happened, and potential for inflation."--Invest Like a Legend: Jeffrey Gundlach | TheGlobeandMail.com: "... being successful in investing is to understand human nature."

•  Economist: Stock Market Gained $2T in Wealth Since Trump Elected | FoxNews.com and U.S. Rally Is the Envy of Stock Markets Worldwide | WSJ.com: "... U.S. stock markets have rallied since the President’s victory more than two months ago, rising on improved economic data and hopes Mr. Trump can stimulate the economy with tax cuts and infrastructure spending while rolling back regulations. But most major stock markets around the globe haven’t enjoyed the same postelection bump, and many remain far below their record levels ..."

•  Brexit Update: London Bankers May Dodge One-Way Trip to Frankfurt | Lipper Alpha Insight | ThomsonReuters.com.

•  Trump Effect? California's stormy winter sets snowfall record for Mammoth resorts (over 20 feet in one month): "The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which provides a third of the state’s water when it melts in the spring and summer, is at nearly 200% of average for this time of year. Many of the state’s biggest reservoirs are full, and much of the northern half of the state is considered to be out of drought conditions. More storms are on the way, state climatologists said."--LATimes.com

One More Thing:  Pundits, Facts and the Future | Bloomberg.com: "News media provide an opportunity for rampant confirmation bias ... for investors, as most of what is news is not only old, it often already is reflected in market prices ... "


-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2016-11-19

TechReview: Facebook's Anti-Trump Fake News, Was It Effective?

Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news:

Feature •  Facebook anti-Trump fake-news writer: "There’s nothing you can’t write about now that [some] people won’t believe. I can write the craziest thing about Trump, and [some anti-Trump] people will believe it. I wrote a lot of crazy anti-Muslim stuff — like about Trump wanting to put badges on Muslims, or not allowing them in the airport, or making them stand in their own line — and [some] people went along with [believed] it!"--WashingtonPost.com

In other words, if you were a Hillary supporter you were more likely to believe anything derogatory about Trump you saw published online (and the reverse was likewise true for Trump supporters). Is anyone surprised by this? You shouldn't be--followers applaud fake news that agrees with their own pre-existing opinions, and people who disagree are more likely to be the fact checkers.

But does fake news change opinions? The answer is: No. Why? Confirmation bias--"people aggressively avoid ideas that challenge their basic philosophy and opinions. Social media has become an echo chamber, an exercise in preaching to the choir and other members of your own tribe. I’ll end this by posing just one request: If anyone switched their vote because of a Facebook post or a 140-character squib on Twitter, please let me know. I’ll be waiting."--Barry Ritholtz, Facebook Didn't Tilt the Election | Bloomberg.com.

The real problem isn't "fake news," instead it is the "misinformation crisis" in mainstream media (MSM)--According to Snopes, Fake News Is Not the Problem | backchannel.com: "... The misinformation crisis, according to Binkowski, stems from something more pernicious. In the past, the sources of accurate information were recognizable enough that phony news was relatively easy for a discerning reader to identify and discredit. The problem, Binkowski believes, is that the public has lost faith in the media broadly — therefore no media outlet is considered credible any longer ..." And for good reason.

That's why purging what someone arbitrarily or subjectively judges to be "fake news" is nothing less than censorship, the repression of free speech and free market competition in favor of  MSM channels that have lost credibility and trust. Facebook, Twitter, whatever:
Here's where it starts to get scary:
Will the Censorship "Fake News" Purge work? Doubtful. Inside Gab: The New Twitter Alternative Championed By The Alt-Right | FastCompany.com: "The purge is happening. At least according to the universe of alt-right users on social media: Many of them claim that in recent days their Twitter accounts have been suspended and that their posts on Facebook are not being promoted or shared like they used to. It’s all part of a crackdown on "fake news" in the wake of reports that misleading reports shared on Facebook and Twitter helped influence the election. To many, these efforts are an overdue attempt to maintain online civility. But to others it’s blatant censorship."
"Careful studies of media bias in the US show that most newspapers and radio or TV stations don’t try to persuade their readers and viewers; instead, they pander to the biases of their audience. It is hard to combat naive realism because the illusion that we see the world objectively is such a powerful one. At least I’ve not had to worry about it too much myself. Fortunately, my own perspective is based on a careful analysis of the facts, and my political views reflect a cool assessment of reality rather than self-interest, groupthink or cultural bias. Of course, there are people to the left of my position. They’re idiots. And the people on my right? Maniacs."--Tim Harford, Delusions of objectivity
Final Post-Election Memo: What Does The Election Mean For Us?: "President Obama never sold a subscription for us or wrote a line of code for us and neither will Donald Trump. Who the President is will not make us successful (or not successful). That is on us. Ignore the noise."--CBinsights.com

Other Tech News:

•  Google commits to massive new London HQ: A new 10-story building that will be as long as London's Shard is tall, Google's new headquarters in London will have 650,000 square feet of floorspace (60,400m2), and will lie alongside King’s Cross station. Google will also continue to occupy its current building in the development, a 380,000 square feet office at 6 Pancras Square which accommodates 2,500 employees. Construction on a second building that Google will occupy but not own began earlier this year, with Google slated to be moving in in 2018. In contrast, the new headquarters will be designed and owned by Google, a first outside the United States.--more at TheGuardian.com

•  SpaceX seeks U.S. approval for internet-via-satellite network: an orbiting digital communications array that would eventually consist of 4,425 satellites--Reuters.com

•  Tencent Holding's (TCEHY) CEO Pony Ma on Q3 2016 Results | Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha.com: "So, I think in terms of the mobile game business performance versus our expectations in the industry, we disclosed our mobile game revenue grew over 80% year-on-year. So you can assume that we're very happy with 80 something percent year-on-year revenue growth."

•  The Void Within Apple | SeekingAlpha.com: No one seems to be in overall charge of the product.

•  How Casino Technology Enables Gambling Addiction: "Modern slot machines develop an unbreakable hold on many players—some of whom wind up losing their jobs, their families, and even, as in the case of Scott Stevens, their lives."--TheAtlantic.com. Electronic gaming machines, which now number almost 1 million nationwide, are the prevalent mode of gambling today in the U.S., with variations on slots and video poker. This technology has accelerated gambling addiction and reaped huge profits for casino operators, with a significant amount of revenue coming from just a small percentage of customers playing machines designed to lull them into a trancelike state that the industry refers to as ‘continuous gaming productivity.’

•  Goodbye & Good Riddance: US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, known for combating Edward Snowden and lying under oath to Congress, resigns ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump--TheGuardian.com. See HasJamesClapperBeenIndictedYet.com.




feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2016-10-15

TechReview | Digital Disruption: Next 10 Years, 40% of Businesses Vanish

TechReview | © DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news:

Feature • Cisco System’s John Chambers tells IMF that 40% of businesses will disappear over the next decade: Technology will fuel an increase of up to 3% in the gross domestic product of every country over the next decade, John Chambers, Cisco Systems Executive Chairman told an International Monetary Fund panel: “If you look at what is in front of us, I think it will transform every person’s life. A digital world that we are now about to encompass will transform every country. Economically, my view is that the next decade, incrementally we’ll have $19 trillion in economic growth.” But Chambers raised some eyebrows when he said “more than 40% of businesses will disappear over the next decade,” explaining that the impact Uber, Lyft and Amazon have had on legacy industries will spread to every industry in the near future, including the automobile business. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde moderated a discussion on how technology could be used to bridge the global economic gap, and what role it will play in the future of developing markets across the globe. Lagarde said “there is still a huge technology divide,” adding “six billion people do not have access to broadband or fast internet.”--read more at MarketWatch.com

• Disrupted: Legacy (Traditional) Media, particularly newspapers:
Above courtesy of Visual Capitalist

Much of traditional media has finally reached the inflection point, particularly newspapers. Legacy media have to maintain their old business models based on subscription and print ad revenue, while successfully venturing into the digital world. Among other things, the cost structure of legacy media just doesn’t make sense in today’s digital world. Overhead is high, and revenue is harder to find due to the limited success of paywalls, rampant ad blocking, and the steady fall in display ad prices due to the emergence of programmatic bidding. In 2015, there was only one age demographic with more than half of its constituents reading a daily newspaper, and that was “65 years old and up.” Even the advertising industry itself ("Madison Avenue") has been notoriously slow at evolving to meet the needs of the "digital revolution." Digital will become the largest channel for ad revenue globally by 2019 (see chart above)--Editor's note: the chart above is misleading in respect to the category "Television" since that category is comprised of 1) broadcast TV, 2) cable TV, and 3) streaming video via an internet connection (another form of "digital media") just consumed via a TV screen or monitor. Both cable and broadcast TV (the legacy TV media) are declining, while "digital TV" (on-demand and live streaming) is increasing. See, e.g., NFL ratings plunge could spell doom for traditional TV | WashingtonPost.com.

More on Digital Disruption:

•  Most "news" is misinformation and establishment media (MSM) are no longer trusted "gatekeepers." We’re also drowning in content, from long-form writing on LinkedIn and Medium, to snackable content on Twitter and Instagram, to an explosion of self-published books. Eliot Peper said: 'Blogs made everyone a journalist. Self-publishing made everyone an author. YouTube made everyone a filmmaker. iTunes made everyone a musician. Publishing houses, record labels, and newsrooms have lost their long-held position as gatekeepers of taste' (emphasis added). See also: The Power and Limits of Curation | DigitalBookWorld.com.

•  Daily Mail owner warns of further cost cutting | FT.com: half of the layoffs come from the company’s media division, the "latest sign of cutbacks among traditional British newspapers groups battling against disruptive digital rivals." See also Daily Mail owner to slash 400 jobs amid pressure on print advertising | pressgazette.co.uk: "DMGT said the move comes in the face of “challenging market conditions” as underlying advertising revenues across its newspaper division have come under further pressure. It saw DMG Media underlying ad revenues fall by 4 per cent over the 11 months of its financial year so far, but worsen in the five weeks since 21 August, tumbling by 10 per cent as print advertising plunged by nearly a fifth."

Other Tech News:

•  Twitter’s Troubles and Snap’s Appeal: "... we have a case in which Silicon Valley’s over reliance on momentum creates an unrealistic proxy for valuation. Snap will reap billions as a result, while Twitter will struggle to salvage what it can from what was once a valuation of more than $40 billion. It is a story that will have real consequences."--NYTimes.com; see also Twitter suitors vanish as Salesforce rules out bid | FT.com.

•  Thanks Marissa! Ex-Yahoo Employee Says Government Spy Program Could Have Given a Hacker Access to All Email--TheIntercept.com. Verizon Communications Inc., might renegotiate its $4.8 billion offer to acquire certain Yahoo assets, as a result of Yahoo's disclosure of the data breach that impacted 500 million Yahoo customers.

•  Uber's #1 Problem: Nobody's Talking About The Biggest, Most Obvious Problem With Uber--SeekingAlpha.com: "I see the upfront pricing shift as part of a broader problem with Uber. Namely, the company's app is a mess." On the other hand, France's transportation department launches Le.Taxi, a "confusing platform" that hosts cab-hailing apps from taxi companies; most taxi apps compare poorly to Uber--France’s Government-Backed Uber Replacement Should Thrill Uber | Motherboard.vice.com.

•  AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon halt sales and replacements of Galaxy Note7 amid reports of newer models catching fire--Recode.net and Samsung ends production of Galaxy Note7 after global recall due to battery fires; shares drop 8% wiping out $17B of market value--Bloomberg.com  See also: Samsung expects to lose around $3 billion due to Note 7 recall | TheVerge.com.

•  Apple's iPhone 6 and 6 Plus Problem Not Going Away: "Apple’s potential design flaw (touch disease error) in the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus continues to attract attention."--Forbes.com

•  How 5G Technology Will Impact Your Portfolio--SeekingAlpha.com (audio)--featuring John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on technology--Topics: A history of the progression from 2G to 5G; What 5G is expected to "look like" (ex: speeds, latency, reliability, connectivity); What the biggest fears are for AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint regarding 5G; Which underlying wireless tech companies are likely to benefit most from 5G; What 5G will mean for smartphones and smartphone makers.

•   Nokia sets new record for submarine cable capacity as demand jumps--Reuters.com

•   Google's response deadline to EU charges extended again: a new deadline has now been set for November 7 on shopping charges, while responses to two separate cases involving Android and online search advertising are due October 31 and October 26, respectively. European Commission has warned penalties in the shopping and Android cases may be significant.

•  Google reportedly aims to start on London mega office by end of 2017--BusinessInsider.com

•  Alibaba's Jack Ma and Daniel Zhang issue annual letters to shareholders | Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA)--SeekingAlpha.com: Jack Ma letter; Daniel Zhang letter. Jack Ma Yun has ambitious plans to create a group trading platform for small businesses and farmers, an open e-commerce system that would include cross-nation agricultural trading. Ma says the long-term goal for Alibaba is to quintuple its user base to 2 billion by 2036."--SeekingAlpha.com

•  Google in China: Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) Echo home speaker is a non-entity in China, it does not understand spoken Chinese. Google, on the other hand, is quite adept at Chinese. While Google Maps, Gmail, Drive are all blocked in China, Google Translate is not. The Chinese government quietly stopped blocking it about a year ago. It is the only major Google online service that can be readily accessed in China. The reason: Google Translate is an essential tool for Chinese companies active internationally, as well as for many of the 150 million middle class Chinese now vacationing abroad each year. Sundar Pichai, Google's CEO, says the world, including China, is moving from a "mobile-first to an AI-first world." Google is already miles ahead of any Chinese company in translation and therefore it may not need to reestablish its search engine business in China to be a major force there says Peter Fuhrman, Chairman & CEO of China First Capital [ChinaFirstCapital.com], a boutique investment bank, in SeekingAlpha.com.

•  Major RAM Management Improvements Coming To Chrome: "developers have just announced that Chrome 54 will utilize a brand new JavaScript engine which will cut JavaScript-related memory usage in half."--Androidheadlines.com

•  Facebook, Google, TE SubCom, and Pacific Light Data Communication Co.,  are co-builders of Los Angeles-Hong Kong submarine cable network, launch date summer of 2018. Named the Pacific Light Cable Network, it will span nearly 8,000 miles and be the highest-capacity transpacific route to date.--SeekingAlpha.com. As Facebook and Google drive ever-increasing amounts of global internet traffic, a greater stake in the infrastructure facilitating delivery could yield competitive advantages.

•  Google outlines Asia cloud plans, four upcoming regions: Singapore, Sydney, Mumbai, and Tokyo will be added as new Google Cloud regions over the next year, as it looks to ramp up its rollout in Asia where it is seeing "triple-digit" growth rates.--ZDNet.com

•  Amazon plans to hire 120,000 temporary workers in the U.S. this holiday season--Fortune.com

•  Foreign investors sue Toshiba over accounting scandal--Reuters.com

•  Google Noto, an open source font family for more than 800 languages: Monotype and Google have developed and released a font family called Noto, for people living all around the world. Monotype is the same typeface company that developed Times New Roman and Arial. The fonts are available here, and are released under the SIL Open Font License, an open source license used for type faces.--Tech2 | tech.firstpost.com

•  Indian call center employees posing as the IRS may have bilked Americans out of millions | WashingtonPost.com: "The call centers were making more than $150,000 a day through scams that took place for a little over a year, police said.--
"It was not the first time that fraudulent call centers targeting U.S. citizens have been raided in India. As more and more American businesses outsourced their back-end operations to India in the past two decades, a thriving IT industry arose here, employing millions of English-speaking software professionals. But some have also taken advantage of the trend and found ways to access data of U.S. customers and defraud them. Call center crimes targeting Indian customers have also become a big “nuisance” for Indians, said Raj Kumar Mishra, deputy superintendent of police in Noida’s special task force. In the neighboring state of Uttar Pradesh, for example, such crimes have increased 4,300 percent in the last five years. Most of the complaints are about online bank frauds and callers who try to access customers’ ATM identification numbers, he said. Nearly 300 people involved in such crimes were arrested in the state last year. “There are leakages from unscrupulous bank staff who are selling the customer data illegally. That is a hole we have to plug,” Mishra said."
•  Finally, "A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man"--Journal.BurningMan.org

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo


feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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