Showing posts with label Boris Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boris Johnson. Show all posts

2018-03-02

MacroView: Hard Brexit or Else? When Will The EU and UK Face Reality?

UPDATE: Theresa May's Brexit speech March 2, 2018

UPDATE March 2, 2017: UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivers her Brexit speech on Friday, March 2, 2018. “We all need to face up to some hard facts ... Neither of us can have exactly what we want, so we need to strike a new balance. But we will not accept the rights of Canada and the obligations of Norway”--UK Prime Minister Theresa May. See May pitches mixture of concession and detail in Brexit vision | Reuters.com.

So Far, Brexit Negotiations Have Been Going Nowhere Fast:
Unclear Brexit vision from a divided cabinet

Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Feb 15, 2018: Political columnist Janan Ganesh and FT editor Lionel Barber discuss how Boris Johnson's call for national unity comes at a time when the Conservative cabinet remains divided on Brexit.

Boris Johnson’s Brexit Speech at Policy Exchange (video)

Jacob Rees-Mogg on Boris's speech and the transition period (video)

At best, the UK may not be able to strike anything other than an ordinary trade deal with the EU in its Brexit negotiations. Late last year, the EU produced a graphic which warned that the UK is heading for a hard Brexit. The  infographic below is based on that, and shows how Theresa May's demands may be incompatible with the current relationship Norway (a non-EU nation) enjoys with the EU, or  Iceland and Liechtenstein. Included in UK's previous demands were to be free of European courts, trade rules, migration, regulation and financial contributions, which would mean it could not use Switzerland as a future template, or the Ukraine and Turkey deals with the EU. So the UK-EU deal may reflect the same type of relationship as that agreed upon by the EU with Canada and South Korea, or if there is no deal, the UK and EU would be left with the WTO rules to govern trade with each other. Why the UK hasn't already opened up trade negotiations with the U.S., Canada, and others, is shortsighted, if it is serious about Brexit. Unfortunately, the EU is also being shortsighted as a "hard Brexit" will actually hurt the EU countries, particularly Germany, harder--the UK imports more than it exports to the EU.

The current trajectory of Brexit negotiations, in the short term, with the delay and uncertainty, is hurting the UK economy, and in the long term, the EU is "cutting off the nose to spite the face."

Infographic: Why Hard Brexit Could Be Inevitable | Statista Statista.com

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2016-08-08

Benefits of Brexit, How UK's Brexit Ministers Plan To Leave The EU (video)

How Brexit ministers plan to leave EU:

Video above: Lionel Barber, FT editor, and Janan Ganesh, political commentator, discuss how the UK’s three Brexit ministers — Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis, the "Brexit Team" — plan to negotiate exit from the EU, and how they will work together. Published July 28, 2016, by FT.com.

Benefits of Brexit: one reason Brexit makes sense
Courtesy of: VisualCapitalist.com

While maintaining economic ties to the single market is an important point to consider, the UK also gains advantages from separating from parts of the EU ecosystem. Parts of Europe are still an economic mess, not getting any getting better. For example, see chart above on non-performing loans (NPLs). Italian banks are being crushed by €360 billion in non-performing loans. Bank stock prices in Italy have plummeted, including Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s third-largest bank by assets, and UniCredit, the country’s largest bank with just under €1 trillion in assets, is trading at one-third of what it was worth a year ago. The ECB’s Mario Draghi is now backing a public bailout of Italy’s banking sector.

Portugal has a similar banking crisis brewing. Non-performing loans have mounted to 18.5%, and Prime Minister Antonio Costa is also publicly looking for a solution to help Portuguese banks. Even Germany, which is typically rock-solid, has its own banking issues. As covered a few weeks ago, the country’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, has seen its value collapse as it has been engulfed by scandals.

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2016-07-17

News Review: ICANN Secretly Colludes With New gTLD Registry Operators

DomainMondoShiningLight ©2013domainmondo.com All Rights Reserved
Domain Mondo's review and look ahead [pdf], starting with a macro view:
US (NYSE & NASDAQ) benchmark index S&P500 UP 2.29%, and
UK (London Stock Exchange) index FTSE100 UP 5.22% since Brexit vote on June 23
"... the arguments for big short-run damage from Brexit look quite weak ... Indeed, the rebound in British stocks, which are now above pre-Brexit levels, is already causing some backlash against conventional economists and their Chicken Little warnings. Sorry, people, sloppy thinking is always a vice, no matter what cause it’s used for." -- Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist, June 30, 2016, NYTimes.com
•  FEATURE: ICANN Secretly Colludes With New gTLD Registry Operators
"ICANN has always been and will continue to be subject to antitrust laws" --Larry Strickling, NTIA, July 14, 2016,  ICANN, NTIA, IANA Transition, Fundamental Problems, the Macro View | DomainMondo.com
On July 12, 2016, I emailed ICANN, asking several questions about the Proposed Amendments to Base New gTLD Registry Agreement, public comments to which now close 20 Jul 2016 at 23:59 UTC (extended from 13 July 2016).

In last week's News Review I noted:
"If you are a domain name registrant (particularly a new gTLD domain name registrant), read the comments already submitted by George Kirikos here and here, and submit your own comment by the deadline. All comments submitted may be read on the comments forum. Also note that ICANN said it would hold a webinar in June on the proposed amendments, but that turned out to be just another broken promise by the dysfunctional ICANN, confirming once again, that for ICANN, domain name registrants are just a resource for exploitation in the form of gTLD name registration and renewal fees, as well as exploitation by ICANN's contracted parties (gTLD registry operators and registrars). Always remember that ICANN leadership (former ICANN President & CEO Fadi Chehade, and his crony, ICANN Global Domains Division President Akram Atallah), referred to new gTLD registry operators as the true "customers" and "partners" of ICANN. Caveat Emptor." 
Below are excerpts from the questions I emailed (italics) and the responses I received from ICANN's Cyrus Namazi, together with my note follow-up comments:

Questions:
On 31 May 2016, Cyrus Namazi, ICANN Vice President, Domain Name Services & Industry Engagement, Global Domains Division, wrote a blog post on the ICANN.org website titled "Amending the New gTLD Registry Agreement" https://www.icann.org/news/blog/amending-the-new-gtld-registry-agreement stating:
"After nearly 18 months of discussions, the revisions proposed by the RySG that ICANN agreed to have been made available to the community for comment today ... ICANN plans to hold a webinar in June 2016 to review the proposed changes in detail and provide an opportunity for community members to ask questions. Stay tuned for an announcement with more information."
1. When and where was the ICANN webinar in "June 2016" held to "review the proposed changes in detail and provide an opportunity for community members to ask questions"?

2. What is the URL of the webpage where notice of the webinar, including its date and time and means of attending, was given to the ICANN community, or the global internet community of domain name registrants (who are directly and detrimentally impacted and affected by the proposal), which Mr. Namazi indicates was negotiated in secret ("discussions") over a period of eighteen (18) months, between ICANN and ICANN's Registries Stakeholder Group (RySG), representing ICANN's contracted parties which are each granted exclusive worldwide monopolies by ICANN (itself a soon-to-be "unregulated global monopoly")?

ICANN response: ICANN hosted a webinar using Adobe Connect titled, “Amending the New gTLD Registry Agreement” on 14 June 2016 at 16:00 UTC.  The webinar was publicized via direct email, sent  9 June 2016, to new gTLD applicants and gTLD registries subject to the amendment process. 

My note: In other words, domain name registrants are not part of the "ICANN community" and were not invited, received no notice, and were not allowed to attend ICANN's webinar to "review the proposed changes in detail" nor given an opportunity "to ask questions."

Question:
9. Is it the policy or customary practice of ICANN that domain name registrants, and their interests, are to have no representation in "negotiations" or "discussions" concerning material changes to Registry Agreements which directly and detrimentally impact or affect domain name registrants worldwide?

ICANN response: "Regarding your questions about the negotiations, ICANN was represented by its lawyers and a cross-functional team of staff members from its Global Domains Division, Contractual Compliance department, and Office of the Chief Technology Officer. Registries were represented by a working group appointed by the Registries Stakeholder Group, as specified in the base New gTLD Registry Agreement. Meetings took place about once per month and were conducted both telephonically and in-person at ICANN meetings."

My note: In other words, ICANN, the California corporation, had representation, as did new gTLD Registry Operators. Domain name registrants were not represented, although they are directly and detrimentally affected and impacted by the proposed amendments, and suffer from the continuing incompetence and hostility of ICANN management and staff towards domain name registrants. As noted last week, for ICANN, domain name registrants are just a resource to be exploited, financially and otherwise. For registrants, here is a resource for private antitrust actions--[http://www.antitrustinstitute.org/content/private-enforcement-antitrust-law-united-states-handbook]--yes, in the USA, unlike most of the world, private antitrust actions are allowed and encouraged. Also check out this introduction to "cartels and collusion." At this rate, some plaintiff antitrust law firms are going to get rich off arrogant ICANN and its new gTLD "partners," after September 30, 2016. And I'm sure Jones Day will gladly defend ICANN, to its last dollar! 

• Comments also close this coming week at ICANN on Reference Label Generation Rulesets (LGRs) for the Second Level: Close Date 18 Jul 2016 23:59 UTC.

•  "Over 50% of [new gTLDs] will be operating at a loss for the next year"--New Top Level Domain Industry First Half 2016 Analysis & Insights (Infographic) | circleid.com.

•   90-day Root Zone Management System "Parallel Testing" Period Ends Successfully [6 July 2016] | ICANN.org: "The authorization process step performed by NTIA will be removed upon the successful completion of the IANA Stewardship Transition, currently projected for 30 September 2016. Until then, the authoritative root zone file will continue to be produced by the production RZMS that contains the authorization step performed by NTIA."

•  Five most popular posts (# of pageviews Sun-Sat) this week on DomainMondo.com:
Most Domain Mondo readers this past week (top 3 countries): U.S.; Germany; France.

• Other Reading Recommendations:
  1. Keep calm and Brexit on: History suggests leaving Europe is great for Britain — Quartz | qz.com: " Do you think it reasonable that the United States should have to become a member of the EU and adopt all the EU laws and regulations in order to have free trade with it? Or, alternatively, that the EU should become a state of the United States?"
  2. “Algorithms are noise-free. People are not.”--Daniel Kahneman’s Strategy for How Your Firm Can Think Smarter | knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu: "... human beings are unknowingly hamstrung by overconfidence, limited attention, cognitive biases and other psychological factors which inevitably cause errors in judgment. These factors affect everything from how we invest in stocks, to how we respond to marketing offers, to how we choose which sandwich to buy for lunch. “We’re fundamentally over-confident in the sense that we jump to conclusions — and to complete, coherent stories — to create interpretations,” said Kahneman. “So we misunderstand situations, spontaneously and automatically. And that’s very difficult to control.”  Furthermore, he said, much of human error is not even attributable to a systematic cause, but to “noise.” “When people think about error, we tend to think about biases…. But in fact, a lot of the errors that people make is simply noise, in the sense that it’s random, unpredictable, it cannot be explained.”
  3. Keep an Eye on the [US$] Dollar: It’s More Important than Ever | WolfStreet.com: "... In a world where the debt of several major economic powers is trading at negative yields (you actually have to pay to hold German and Japanese government debt, for example), the dollar offers at least some return for those looking for a safe haven for their capital. That makes it an even better “fear indicator” than usual, and movement in the dollar is therefore likely to have an exaggerated effect on oil, where global demand is more important than local conditions..."
  4. Geopolitical Watch: China's claims over South China Sea rejected by Hague Tribunal | Shanghaiist.com
  5. Dinosaur Watch: Microsoft: Windows 10 won't hit 1 billion devices by mid-2018 | ZDNet.com: "Since April 2015, the bottom has fallen out of the Windows Phone market, with Microsoft officials conceding that Windows Phone isn't much of a focus for Microsoft in calendar 2016."
Keep up with U.S. Election 2016 coverage, including the Trumpvention in Cleveland this coming week, on Domain Mondo's election page.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

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2016-06-25

Day After Brexit Vote Eurocrats Lost, Market Recovery, Path Forward

UPDATE June 30, 2016: London Stock Exchange benchmark FTSE100 still rocketing UP:

 UPDATE June 29, 2016: Contrary to the "Chicken Little" reports from the media and establishment, the FTSE100, the benchmark index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (as measured by market capitalization) has completely recovered and is now higher than before the Brexit vote:
Chart: The London Stock Exchange FTSE100 Comes Roaring Back
The London Stock Exchange FTSE100 Comes Roaring Back (source: google.com)
UPDATE June 26, 2016: Contrary to media reports following the Brexit vote, Reuters reports polling indicates Scots do not favor another referendum on separating from the UK. See also News Review: Brexit ... | DomainMondo.com (June 26, 2016):
"There is a lot more to come in this drama beyond just the voting results. It is now clear that Boris Johnson and David Cameron are "on the same page" and there will be no immediate trigger of Article 50. Instead, the clever British intend to use the leverage of their voter mandate to squeeze the EU aristocracy for concessions that will give the UK almost everything it wants, and a status no other country, in or out of the EU, now has."
Brexit does not make UK 'less European' says Boris Johnson:

Video above: Boris Johnson said Friday the UK vote to leave the EU gives Britons a 'glorious opportunity' to take control over its own taxes and borders. All UK politicians 'should thank British people' who 'did their job' dealing with one of the toughest questions of all time. The EU "was a noble idea for its time; it is no longer right for this country" said Johnson. Published June 24, 2016.

 Brexit fallout? Britain will be fine, but the EU may have reason to worry: 

Ignore the noise, distraction, and hysterics of headlines and cable news. Here's a snapshot of what really happened the day after the Brexit vote:

Below is an email sent Friday (June 24, 2016) by the CEO of a major global company headquartered in London to all employees following the EU referendum vote in the UK on Thursday to withdraw from the European Union:
Dear Colleagues, I am writing to share some immediate thoughts in the light of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. These are clearly uncertain times for the UK and for Europe. _____’s view throughout the campaign was that the UK was better off within the EU. Of course we fully respect the democratic decision that has been taken and, for _____, we will now focus on forging a successful path in a new context. _____ is in a strong position. More than half of our revenues are from the US, in dollars. We have a solid balance sheet with low debt, and this will enable us to weather uncertainties. Although we care deeply about the UK, we are the world’s _____ company. We will continue to be advocates for a world that is more open and connected. It is vital that the UK’s world class universities should continue to attract the brightest young people from around the world to enrich our _____ community. For now, the important thing for us all is to stay focused on our business and our customers. We will take our time and work through every implication of our business and our growth. We will also will play our part in helping maintain the outward-looking United Kingdom and globally connected _____ community that are in the interests of us all. (emphasis added)
Markets' reactions (from Thursday close to Friday close--see charts below):
FTSE100 (UK): -2.71%
SP500 (US): -3.58%
DAX (Germany): -6.69%
CAC40 (France): -7.85%
Clockwise: Benchmark Stock Market Indexes for UK (FTSE100), France (CAC40), Germany (DAX) and US (S&P500)
Week of June 20-24, 2016 (source: google.com)
Clearly, the French and German markets took a much harder tumble, while the markets in London showed resilience and recovery by the end of the market close on Friday. Investors have reason to worry about the European Union (EU). The EU has a lot of problems that will only be worse without the UK--problems that are not going to go away--long-term economic decline, aging populations, fiscal and monetary issues and economic imbalances caused by the single currency (euro), and a continuing refugee crisis. Is it any wonder that Switzerland formally withdrew its long-dormant application to become a member of the EU last week? Haughty Eurocrats may regret their undermining David Cameron's campaign to "Remain."

Much is yet to be done, and as economist Martin Wolf says in the video below, Britain, the world's 5th biggest economy, is the most important market for the Eurozone. As for Wolf's reference to the "consequences of uncertainty," remember what Warren Buffett says:

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.”

Note accordingly, Martin Wolf's reference to investors snatching up assets in the UK:


Video above published by FT.com on June 24, 2016 - Brexit: Economist Martin Wolf  - economic forecast | FT Comment.

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2016-06-23

Brexit: Will UK Vote to Leave or Remain in the European Union? (video)

Brexit Breakdown: The final countdown:

Above video: With just hours before voting begins, FT.com's Sebastian Payne provides a final round-up of activity from the Remain and Leave campaigns.

 UPDATE:  Brexit Vote Results LIVE, What Happens Next? (video)

The June 23rd referendum on whether UK will leave or remain in the European Union (EU), may be the global watershed event of 2016 and it is in the hands of the voters in the United Kingdom. A lot is at stake beyond just British sovereignty vs. EU bureaucracy in Brussels.

Brexit Referendum Timeline | dailyfx.com:
  • Voting for UK-EU referendum (Brexit) will take place from 06:00 – 21:00 GMT / 02:00 -17:00 EDT.
  • First referendum results due out starting after 23:00 GMT/19:00 EDT. 
  • FX volatility set to remain high with the Brexit vote tomorrow - it's the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/


EU referendum: Race ‘too close to call’ as four polls give different sides the lead on final campaign day | telegraph.co.uk


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