03 January 2017

Scott Galloway: 2016 Digital Winners & Losers, 2017 Predictions (video)

Scott Galloway: Accountability is a Bitch:

Video above published Dec 22, 2016 by L2inc.com. Scott Galloway's 2016 Digital Winners & Losers and some 2017 predictions.

"We were right on: 
  • Wearables and 3D printing - calling them out as headfakes months before their respective stocks plunged.
  • Jet.com. The startup was purchased by Walmart as an acquihire, just as we forecast on Winners & Losers last October.
  • Messaging. Brands are flocking to messaging platforms, particularly Facebook Messenger, just as we predicted in March.
"Too early to tell: Slack could still be the executioner of email, as we predicted - or it could disrupt workplace communication entirely."

More in the video and transcript below.

Without Google and Facebook, digital advertising is in decline (source: L2inc.com video above)
Google and Facebook accounted for the majority share of U.S. digital ad revenue in 2016 (source: eMarketer.com, Bloomberg.com):
  • Google 41%
  • Facebook 17%
  • Microsoft 4%
  • Yahoo 3%
  • Twitter 2%
  • Others 33%
See also: Google and Facebook Killed Free Media | Bloomberg.com"Television, newspapers and other media industries are struggling with slow-to-declining advertising revenue. Google and Facebook are taking advantage."

YouTube.com auto-generated transcipt:
0:02  At the end of the year, we look back at our predictions for 2016.
0:06  In fact, one of the biggest losers of '16 was wearables.
0:10  When Fitbit emerged from its 2015 IPO with a $4 billion valuation we weren't convinced, and neither was the market.
0:18  With Fitbit stock at record lows,
0:19  it looks like we got this one right.
0:21  Last January we also predicted headwinds for 3D printing and VR.
0:26  3D printing - that's my favorite.
0:28  Build anything you want, right away, real-time?
0:30  Well, guess what. We have the world's best 3D printer right now - and it's called China.
0:35  The next big headfake?
0:37  Virtual reality.
0:39  For $600 you can buy the Facebook Oculus.
0:42  Porn and gaming may take off here, but that's it.
0:44  3D printer stocks have plunged to record lows
0:46  and the Oculus CEO's move to a new project at Facebook is the death knell for virtual reality.
0:54  In October 2015, we predicted Jet.com was a loser
0:57  and would be bought as an acquihire.
0:59  Our prediction: Jet.com has absolutely no hope of success against Amazon.
1:04  Walmart in fact acquired the company in August,
1:07  at a cost of - get this - $12.5 million per employee and a 6x multiple on revenues.
1:15  At the time of the acquisition, Jet was spending $5 million per week on advertising
1:19  and would be operating at a loss until they reached $20 billion in sales, with 15 million paying customers.
1:27  So Walmart paid $3.5 billion for a company that needs to reach $20 billion in sales to break even.
1:33  This is what you call panic. In a digital age, that costs shareholders billions.
1:38  This will be one of the biggest writedowns in retail history.
1:42  So our prediction on Slack?
1:43  Too early to tell.
1:44  In September 2015, we posited that email for internal communications would be replaced by Slack.
1:51  So we hear a lot about the death of email, but who's the executioner?
1:55  One culprit might be Slack.
1:57  The platform's recent integration with Google Drive makes clear that it's gaining momentum.
2:02  However, there are still 625 million active business email accounts.
2:06  Slack recently added video calling capability,
2:08  suggesting they're not just going after email, but broader workplace communications.
2:13  On messaging, we definitely got the trend correct.
2:16  In March, we predicted that messaging was the next frontier for brands.
2:20  What is the final frontier?
2:21  We don't know, but the next frontier: messaging.
2:26  We've already seen that prediction take hold,
2:27  particularly on Facebook Messenger,
2:30  which an increasing number of brands are using to connect with their customers.
2:34  And the celebrity death match for '17?
2:36  Facebook's Instagram taking on Snapchat.
2:39  Our prediction?
2:39  Snapchat will lose value in 2017 at the hands of the most agile, impressive company in the world - Facebook.
2:49  We did in fact predict Facebook would expedite the death of the industrial ad complex.
2:53  The advertising industrial complex is coming to an end.
2:57  Advertising has become a tax that poor people pay.
3:00  For twenty bucks a year, we should be able to opt out of your sh*tty advertising, Facebook.
3:06  News of this year is that the firewall of live TV, specifically sports, has been breached.
3:12  It's clear that two players own the future: Google and Facebook.
3:14  If you look at the incremental revenue Facebook and Google each command,
3:20  it adds up to 103%.
3:22  You think, wait, that doesn't make any sense.
3:23  It does because, sans Google and Facebook, digital marketing is now officially in decline.
3:30  .....


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