TechReview | Tech Story of the Year: Tay, Microsoft's AI Chatterbot

Domain Mondo's weekly review of technology news:

Feature •  Tech Story of the Year: Tay, Microsoft's Artificial Intelligence (AI) Chatterbot:
"As many of you know by now, on Wednesday [March 23, 2016] we launched a chatbot called Tay. We are deeply sorry for the unintended offensive and hurtful tweets from Tay, which do not represent who we are or what we stand for, nor how we designed Tay. Tay is now offline and we’ll look to bring Tay back only when we are confident we can better anticipate malicious intent that conflicts with our principles and values ... The logical place for us to engage with a massive group of users was Twitter. Unfortunately, in the first 24 hours of coming online, a coordinated attack by a subset of people exploited a vulnerability in Tay. Although we had prepared for many types of abuses of the system, we had made a critical oversight for this specific attack. As a result, Tay tweeted wildly inappropriate and reprehensible words and images. We take full responsibility for not seeing this possibility ahead of time. We will take this lesson forward as well as those from our experiences in China, Japan and the U.S. Right now, we are hard at work addressing the specific vulnerability that was exposed by the attack on Tay."--Learning from Tay’s introduction | blogs.microsoft.com
Afterwards, Microsoft accidentally re-released Tay, the AI chatbot, on Twitter on March 30, 2016: Microsoft's Tay chatbot returns briefly and brags about smoking weed | mashable.com.

Madhumita Murgia of The Telegraph called Tay a public relations disaster:
Tay was built to speak like a  teen girl and released as an experiment to improve Microsoft’s automated customer service. Instead, “she” turned into a complete PR disaster - within hours of being unleashed on Twitter, the “innocent teen” bot was transformed into a fascist, misogynistic, racist, pornographic entity. Her tweets, including phrases like “Heil Hitler”, were disseminated widely as an example of why Twitter reflects the worst of humanity ... This is an example of artificial intelligence at its very worst - and it’s only the beginning. 

Other Tech News: 

•  FBI/DHS Joint Analysis Report: A Fatally Flawed Effort | Medium.com: "... It adds nothing to the call for evidence that the Russian government was responsible for hacking the DNC, the DCCC, the email accounts of Democratic party officials, or for delivering the content of those hacks to Wikileaks. It merely listed every threat group ever reported on by a commercial cybersecurity company ... and lumped them under the heading of Russian Intelligence Services (RIS) without providing any supporting evidence that such a connection exists ..." See alsoSomething About This Russia Story Stinks | RollingStone.com: "Nearly a decade and a half after the Iraq-WMD faceplant, the American press is again asked to co-sign a dubious intelligence assessment ... President Obama issued a terse statement seeming to blame Russia for the hack of the Democratic National Committee emails ...
"The problem with this story is that, like the Iraq-WMD mess, it takes place in the middle of a highly politicized environment during which the motives of all the relevant actors are suspect. Nothing quite adds up. If the American security agencies had smoking-gun evidence that the Russians had an organized campaign to derail the U.S. presidential election and deliver the White House to Trump, then expelling a few dozen diplomats after the election seems like an oddly weak and ill-timed response. Voices in both parties are saying this now."
See also: Creator of NSA's Global Surveillance System Calls B.S. On Russian Hacking Report | WashingtonsBlog.com.

•  Alibaba's Magical Numbers: Population in the United States is a factor .24 of that of China (324 million people in the US vs. China 1.37 billion). Offsetting that however is that consumer spending is much higher in America than China. The United States has a GDP of $18 trillion of which $12.3 trillion (~68%) is driven by consumer spending. China GDP is estimated at $11 trillion of which approximately 37% is estimated to be driven by consumer spending. Taking 68 over 37 implies that Americans outspend the Chinese by a factor 1.8 on consumer spending.
"Combining the factors (12 x 1.8 x .24) gives us an estimate of how Alibaba's customers' mobile purchase behavior is close to 5 times higher than the mobile shopping behavior of consumers in the States. That is an incredible factor and outside of Alibaba's metrics, I could not find any source that corroborated or justified that multiple."--SeekingAlpha.com
Quick Takes:

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ICANN Litigation Update: .AFRICA, IRP & CEP Status Report .WEB

ICANN litigation, IRP, CEP,  Reconsideration Requests status update:
Graphic: new gTLD .AFRICA © DomainMondo.com
DotConnectAfrica Trust vs Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), and Intervenor ZA Central Registry (ZACR)
Case Number: BC607494, California State Superior Court, County of Los Angeles
Filing Date: 01/20/2016
Case Type: Other Commercial/Business Tort (General Jurisdiction)
Status: Pending
UPDATE 3 Jan 2017: ICANN not enjoined from delegating .AFRICA by California State Superior Court Judge
Future Hearings: 01/23/2017 at 08:30 am in department 53 at 111 North Hill Street, Los Angeles, CA 90012, Conference-Case Management (to set Trial date).

Parties & Counsel:
BROWN NERI SMITH & KHAN LLP - Attorney for Plaintiff/Petitioner
SCHANTZ LAW FIRM - Attorney for Plaintiff/Petitioner


JONES DAY - Attorney for Deft/Respnt


DOES 1 THROUGH 50 - Defendant/Respondent

Documents Filed: listing at https://www.icann.org/resources/pages/dca-v-icann-2016-01-26-en and  12/22/2016 Declaration (Exhibit F  to the Declaration of Mokgabudi Lucky Masilela [Filed Under Seal Per Order Of 12-22-16] ) filed by Intervenor

More information:
Graphic: new gTLD .WEB  © DomainMondo.com
2. New gTLD .WEB--Ruby Glen, LLC v. ICANN--Final Judgment (pdf) 28 November 2016, all of the claims asserted by plaintiff Ruby Glen, LLC (an affiliate of Donuts Inc.) dismissed with prejudice.
4. ICANN Cooperative Engagement Process (CEP) And Independent Review Process (IRP) Status Report:
CEP & IRP Status Update (pdf) as of 22 December 2016 embed below (highlighting added).

5. 2016 Reconsideration Requests Status Update – 22 December 2016 (pdf) embed below:

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Caveat Emptor Domain Name Registrants re: ICANN Base New gTLD RA

There is now no question that ICANN, post-IANA transition, is a domain name industry-captured organization and does not operate in the global public interest, but completely disregards the interests of domain name registrants. Ted Cruz may have been right, the IANA transition may have been a terrible mistake, premature at best. Maybe Trump can do something.
Caveat Emptor new gTLD domain name registrants: ICANN intends to eliminate price increase transparency for new gTLD domain names in its ICANN base new gTLD Registry Agreement (RA):
"Comments on the proposed amendments. A number of comments relate to the proposed amendments to Sections 2.9 and 2.10. The proposed amendment removes the requirement that a Registry Operator notify ICANN (in addition to its contracted ICANN accredited registrar partners) of increases in the price charged by a Registry Operator to register a domain name in the TLD. ICANN and the Working Group agreed to this modification for several reasons. First, it should be noted that a Registry Operator is not required to provide ICANN with the registration pricing initially charged to ICANN accredited registrars to register names in a TLD. Second, the price charged by Registry Operators is viewed as the “wholesale” price for registering a domain name in a TLD and is not necessarily the price ultimately charged to registrants by ICANN accredited registrars. As such, Registry Operator’s pricing is only one data point that leads to the price charged to registrants, and the disclosure and analysis of this data may be misleading to registrants. Third, it is not necessary for ICANN to be notified of price increases in order to ensure Registry Operator’s compliance with the substantive requirements of Section 2.10 as ICANN’s compliance department is entitled to request this information as part of its normal compliance process. Fourth, ICANN is concerned that collecting, retaining and analyzing this information could be seen as ICANN playing a role in the pricing policies and decision-making of Registry Operators, which historically ICANN has not done."--Updated ICANN Staff Report on Proposed Amendments to Base New gTLD Registry Agreement (pdf) at page 9 (emphasis added).
What's wrong with removing price increase transparency? Healthy competition in a free market is destroyed when price transparency is removed:
A 'free market' in healthcare is doomed | LATimes.comUnleashing the power of choice and competition is the best way to lower healthcare costs and improve quality,” declares House Speaker Paul Ryan in his conservative manifesto “A Better Way.” The problem with that, however, is that the healthcare industry — hospitals, drug companies, insurers — have worked tirelessly to prevent the medical marketplace from functioning with sufficient transparency and efficiency to allow consumers to benefit from classic supply-and-demand economics. Instead, the opaque and frequently unfathomable healthcare market promotes runaway corporate greed that often can be countered only by shaming businesses into behaving fairly and responsibly.
And that Fourth reason for not even collecting and publishing pricing information:
Fourth, ICANN is concerned that [merely] collecting, retaining and analyzing this information could be seen as ICANN playing a role in the pricing policies and decision-making of Registry Operators, which historically ICANN has not done."
"ICANN is concerned"? Really? How so? Sounds like ICANN can not handle the responsibility of being a responsible steward acting in the global public interest--pricing information should be transparent to everyone in a free competitive market--but ICANN shirks its responsibilities to the global internet community, which includes domain name registrants!

ICANN obviously never really wanted "competition" in the domain name marketplace, instead ICANN prefers crony capitalism and monopolistic franchises exploiting domain name registrants, enabling opaque pricing that encourages the 'runaway greed' of ICANN's "partners," the gTLD domain name registry operators. Likewise the ICANN fee waivers enabled by the amendments will encourage gTLD registry operators' dependency upon ICANN for favoritism, and will ultimately lead to corruption between ICANN management/staff and the gTLD registry operators.

ICANN Publishes Updated Staff Report on Proposed Amendments to Base New gTLD Registry Agreement | ICANN.org
Los Angeles – 22 December 2016 – "ICANN today published a revised Staff Report of Public Comment Proceeding regarding Proposed Amendments to Base New gTLD Registry Agreement. Read the Reissued Report [PDF, 544 KB]. The reissued report supplements the staff report published on 17 August 2016 and includes additional explanatory text in Section I and a revised Section IV to reflect an analysis of the public comments by ICANN and the Working Group. More Information: Public Comment: Proposed Amendments to Base New gTLD Registry Agreement." Updated as of 22 December 2016:
"This Staff Report (see Reissued Report below) supplements the Staff Report published on 17 August 2016 to include additional explanatory text in Section I and a revised Section IV to reflect discussions between ICANN and the Working Group in response to the public comments. On 17 August 2016, ICANN published a summary report outlining comments received and committed to later publish an updated Report of Public Comment Proceeding to include analysis of the public comments, once considered with the Working Group as provided for in the Registry Agreement. For convenience, Sections I, II, and III have been reproduced from the 17 August 2016 Staff Report below for reference. As a result of the analysis, a few minor adjustments were made to the originally posted amendment. The updated version is reflected in the clean and redlined documents below:

Clean version of amended base New gTLD Registry Agreement as of December 2016:

Redlines from previous version of the amended base New gTLD Registry Agreement as of December 2016:

Updated Next Steps according to ICANN: "According to Section 7.7(c) of the Registry Agreement, the Proposed Revisions shall be submitted for Registry Operator Approval (as defined in Section 7.6) and approval by the ICANN Board of Directors. If such approvals are obtained, the Proposed Revisions shall be deemed an Approved Amendment (as defined in Section 7.6) by the Applicable Registry Operators and ICANN, and shall be effected and deemed an amendment to this Agreement upon sixty (60) calendar days notice from ICANN to Registry Operator."

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ICANN CDAR Internet Root Server System Stability Draft Report Comments

"Having already made the worst mistake in its organizational history in the way it implemented the new gTLDs program, ICANN appears content to continue in its misguided ways until it wrecks the internet and/or domain name system, global public resources over which ICANN is not, and never has been, a good steward."--Comment to ICANN's CDAR study (see below) (links and emphasis added).
The Continuous Data-Driven Analysis of Root (CDAR) Server System Stability Draft Report comment period has been extended to 15 Jan 2017 23:59 UTC.

Comments submitted by the original deadline 22 Dec 2016 23:59 UTC:

*Comment to ICANN from the Editor of Domain Mondo re: Continuous Data-Driven Analysis of Root Server System Stability Draft Report:

"The Draft Report is inadequate and fails to assure the global internet community of the Root Zone security and stability, nor does the report definitively answer the essential questions:
"The study’s primary research question is: Did the delegation of new gTLDs degrade the stability or security of the root DNS system? And based on the analysis carried out for this research question, our second research question is: Can we expect that the delegation of more new gTLDs will degrade the stability or security of the root DNS system in the future?" ("Draft Report" 27 Oct 2016, p.2).
"The ONLY thing the authors of the Draft Report can definitely state is: "We did not find any degradation of the stability or security of the root DNS system in this period that we could attribute to the new gTLDs." (Draft Report, p.2)

"That finding is hardly reassuring given the admission the authors of the Draft Report make on p. 3:
"our conclusion is limited to the results of the analyses that we designed and executed and is confined by the imperfections of the available measurement data."
"In addition, both ICANN and the authors of the Draft Report have been careless and negligent in failing to acknowledge and address the substance of the comments of Daniel Karrenberg Chief Scientist RIPE NCC, (speaking individually, not on behalf of the RIPE NCC)--CDAR Study Cannot Predict Stability of the Root Server System--https://forum.icann.org/lists/comments-cdar-study-plan-02dec15/msg00001.html dated 26 Jan 2016, which stated in part:
"Our main comment and advice to ICANN is: do not expect the study to predict the absence of instabilities in the DNS root name server system including absence of instabilities that may be wholly or partly caused by root zone expansion. ICANN therefore must make proper contingency plans for the unpredictable cases where root zone expansion causes or contributes to instabilities in the DNS root server system." (emphasis added)
"ICANN has a long history of being foolish, careless, incompetent, and grossly negligent, when it comes to coordination and management of the internet, including root zone, in adding new generic top-level domains (new gTLDs)--see e.g., News Review: ICANN Used 'Junk Science' Firm to Justify New gTLDs.

"Having already made the worst mistake in its organizational history in the way it implemented the new gTLDs program, ICANN appears content to continue in its misguided ways until it wrecks the internet and/or domain name system, global public resources over which ICANN is not, and never has been, a good steward."


Roger McNamee: Apple, EU, Future of Globalization, China (videos)

Roger McNamee: Apple Appealing EU Tax Is A Lose-Lose:

Video above published Dec 19, 2016: Roger McNamee, Elevation Partners co-founder, gives his take on Apple's response to the EU's tax ruling, Ireland and the EU, and the future of globalization.

Apple Inc. 
Domain: apple.com

Americans Are Paying Apple Millions to Shelter Overseas Profits | Bloomberg.com"Over the years, Apple Inc. has become the poster child for U.S. multinationals accused of sheltering overseas profits to avoid the IRS. What’s gone largely unnoticed is that it’s been paid more than half a billion dollars by the U.S. government to do just that. Taking advantage of an exemption tucked into America’s Byzantine tax code, Apple stashed much of its foreign earnings—tax-free—right here in the U.S., in part by purchasing government bonds, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. In return, the Treasury Department paid Apple at least $600 million and possibly much more over the past five years in the form of interest, a Bloomberg review of its regulatory filings shows ..."

Do Stocks Have A Big China Problem?

Video above published Dec 19, 2016: Chinese bonds and equities have been sinking recently. Are American markets next? Max Wolff of 55 Capital and Eddy Elfenbein of the Crossing Wall Street blog discuss with Eric Chemi.

Shanghai Composite Index (source: google.com)

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MacroView: Trump Team Power Players & 2017 Global Economy (video)

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature •  President-elect Donald J. Trump's 2017 Great Again Team Cabinet-level Power Players:

The Electoral College vote on December 19, 2016, sealed Trump's Presidential victory. Congress will certify the results on January 6th, and Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated the 45th President of the United States on January 20, 2017. However, Hillary Clinton and some of her supporters and 'friends' in the media are still whining about the 2016 Presidential election outcome. Meanwhile, most rational people have moved on and are preparing for the incoming Trump administration: "The Founding Fathers got it right, and California is proof."--MarketWatch.com.  For those still looking in the rearview mirror, Vice President Joe Biden said this week that Hillary Clinton never really figured out why she was running, while others have concluded the desire for change was bigger than any worries Clinton was able to raise about Trump. For those still living in a state of denial, reality is about to give them a slap in the face:
"Senate Democrats are about to get rolled on Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks. They [Democrats] could spend years in the minority ... instead of the GOP collapse that many expected on Nov. 8, it’s now Democrats [who are] soul-searching about what went wrong."--POLITICO.com.
Background: In November 2013, Democrats controlled the U.S. Senate and used the so-called nuclear option to eliminate filibusters on executive branch nominations and federal judicial appointments other than those to the Supreme Court. As a result, in 2017, Trump's Cabinet picks will only need a simple majority of 51 votes for Senate confirmation (Republicans will have a 52-seat majority in the 100-seat U.S. Senate in 2017).

Digital Trump: Horizontal View | ©2016 John Poole | DomainMondo.com
Digital Trump: Horizontal View | ©2016 John Poole | DomainMondo.com
Trump's Cabinet-level picks requiring Senate confirmation:
  • Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin
  • Defense Secretary James N. Mattis
  • Attorney General Jeff Sessions
  • Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke
  • Agriculture Secretary TBA
  • Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross
  • Labor Secretary Andrew F. Puzder
  • H.H.S. Secretary Tom Price
  • HUD Secretary Ben Carson
  • Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao
  • Energy Secretary Rick Perry
  • Education Secretary Betsy DeVos
  • V.A. Secretary TBA
  • Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly
  • U.N. Ambassador Nikki R. Haley
  • C.I.A. Director Mike Pompeo
  • Director of National Intelligence TBA
  • U.S. Trade Representative TBA
  • Administrator of the Small Business Administration Linda McMahon
  • E.P.A. Administrator Scott Pruitt
  • Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney
Do not require Senate confirmation:
Not mentioned above, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, who some expect to be very influential within the Trump administration, just as he was in the Trump campaign. It is also clear that Silicon Valley's Peter Thiel will have substantial influence in the new administration. See also on Domain Mondo: Home Depot Co-Founder Ken Langone: 'I’m excited about Trump’s Cabinet' (video).

MacroView Feature •  Martin Wolf on the global economy in 2017:

Video above published Dec 23, 2016: FT.com editor Lionel Barber speaks to Martin Wolf about the biggest risks and bright spots in the 2017 global economy, major events of 2016, and Trumponomics. 

Other MacroView News:

•  Trump Effect: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Up 8.73% since November 8th:
DJIA (source: google.com)
•  Companies Face Delays Getting Cash Out of China | WSJ.com"French construction-materials company Cie. de Saint-Gobain SA, is finding it harder to take its money out of China. The conglomerate—like all multinationals operating there—faces new delays in recent weeks as Chinese regulators impose tougher restrictions on the movement of capital out of the country to slow the yuan’s decline ..."

•  Venture capital is harder to come by, interest rates are low, and founders prefer no dilution--voilà venture debt-- U.S. Startups Are Piling on Debt | Bloomberg.com"With fewer companies getting funded these days, many startups are opting to borrow money instead. Some have already been forced to shutter after missing payments."

•  Italy Banking Crisis is Also a Huge Crime Scene | WolfStreet.com"Toxic loans as a result of corruption, political kickbacks, fraud, and abuse."

•  World Energy Tipping Point: Solar Is Now Cheaper Than Wind"Emerging markets are leapfrogging the developed world thanks to cheap panels."--Bloomberg.com

• IMF's Lagarde keeps job, escapes penalty after negligence conviction in France | Reuters.com

•  Fallibility, Reflexivity, Adaptability“My conceptual framework is built on two relatively simple propositions. The first is that in situations that have thinking participants, the participants’ views of the world never perfectly correspond to the actual state of affairs. People can gain knowledge of individual facts, but when it comes to formulating theories or forming an overall view, their perspective is bound to be either biased or inconsistent or both. That is the principle of fallibility .... The second proposition is that these imperfect views can influence the situation to which they relate through the actions of the participants. For example, if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, which in turn will change the nature of the markets in which they are participating (though not necessarily making them more efficient). That is the principle of reflexivity.”--George Soros. See Soros, Fallibility, Reflexivity, and the Importance of Adapting | blogs.cfainstitute.org

•  Much ado about nothing--Data Shows Fake News Sites Have Tiny Audience | DailyCaller.com--anyone surprised? (other than the 'sore losers' of the Clinton campaign, the anti-free speech liberal-left Dems, and MSM). 

•  The Hacking Evidence Against Russia Is [Still] Extremely Weak | WashingtonsBlog.com"I don’t know what the DNC paid “Crowdstrike” for their narrative but they got a very poor return for their effort indeed. That the New York Times promotes it as any kind of evidence is a truly damning indictment of the mainstream media."

•  One More Thing: In Aleppo's historic St. Elias Cathedral, priests prayed for peace at the first Christmas Eve Mass in five years, attended by dozens of worshippers and some Russian officers. Many among the 400,000 Syrian Christians who comprise 10% of Syria's population, support Assad's Syrian government forces, not the Sunni Muslim rebel fighters supported by the Obama administration--sources. See also Journalist Eva Bartlett Destroys Mainstream News Journalists' Credibility Over Syria, Aleppo | washingtonsblog.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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Home Depot Co-Founder Ken Langone: 'I’m excited about Trump’s Cabinet'

Home Depot Co-Founder: I’m excited about Trump’s Cabinet:

Video above published Dec 19, 2016: Home Depot Co-Founder Ken Langone on why he is excited about Donald Trump’s cabinet picks.

Gasparino on Trump's appointment of Gary Cohn:

Video above published Dec 19, 2016: FBN Senior Correspondent Charlie Gasparino on how Gary Cohn could influence Donald Trump’s economic policies. President-elect Donald Trump selected Gary Cohn, the President and Chief Operating Officer of Goldman Sachs, to serve as assistant to the President for economic policy and Director of the National Economic Council (NEC):
“Being chosen to serve in the President-elect’s administration is a great honor,” said Gary Cohn. “I share President-elect Trump’s vision of making sure every American worker has a secure place in a thriving economy, and we will be completely committed to building a nation of strength, growth and prosperity.”--source: GreatAgain.gov.
The NEC is comprised of numerous department and agency heads within the administration, whose policy jurisdictions impact the nation's economy. The NEC Director works in conjunction with these officials to coordinate and implement the President's economic policy objectives. The Director is supported by a staff of policy specialists in various fields including: agriculture, commerce, energy, financial markets, fiscal policy, healthcare, labor, and Social Security.--source: WhiteHouse.gov.

Note: The NYSE and NASDAQ markets are always closed on Christmas Day, December 25th, which this year falls on Sunday, therefore the Christmas closing will extend through Monday, December 26, 2016. The markets will reopen after Christmas on Tuesday, December 27, 2016.

Trump Effect: the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed December 22, 2016, at 19,918.88, UP 8.65% since Trump was elected November 8, 2016:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (source: google.com)

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Other Perspectives on Donald Trump’s Tech Meeting Last Week (videos)

Why Twitter’s CEO Wasn’t at Donald Trump’s Tech Meeting:

Video above published Dec 15, 2016, by Fortune.com

Maris: Trump’s Win a Wake-Up Call for Silicon Valley:

Dec.12, 2016: Investor and entrepreneur Bill Maris, founder and former CEO of GV (Google Ventures), discusses the meeting between President-Elect Trump and tech leaders and his respect for Peter Thiel. He speaks with Emily Chang on “Bloomberg Technology.”

Tech CEOs might be more like Trump than they think:

Video above published Dec 14, 2016: Prime Minister David Cameron's former senior advisor Steve Hilton, Patriach Equity Chairman Eric Schiffer and Dynalink Communications CEO Larry Fishelson discuss Donald Trump's roundtable meeting with Tech leaders.

See on Domain MondoTechReview: Silicon Valley's Pilgrimage to Trump Tower to Meet Trump on Wednesday, December 14, 2016.

See also: Readout of President-Elect Trump’s Meeting with Tech Leaders | GreatAgain.gov.

Trump's $3.1 Trillion-Dollar Tech Summit
Infographic: The Trillion-Dollar Tech Summit | Statista
Source: Statista

The chart above shows the market capitalization of the companies represented by tech leaders who met with Trump on December 14, 2016.

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Silicon Valley Eyes Donald Trump Tech Effect on Startups (video)

Silicon Valley Eyes Donald Trump Tech Effect:

Video above published Dec 20, 2016: Jennifer Fonstad, Aspect Ventures, discusses whether startups may get a major boost from the incoming Trump administration's infrastructure plans.

Domain: AspectVentures.com

Aspect Ventures' companies: aspectventures.com/companies

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Scott Galloway: What Airbnb Isn't Telling Us, Hotels Are Losers (video)

Scott Galloway: What Airbnb Isn't Telling Us

Video above published Dec 8, 2016 by L2inc.com: Scott Galloway presents the winners and losers in digital:

Loser: Hotels, as Airbnb takes an increasing share of their guests - despite the company's claims that its service is "complementary" to the hospitality industry.

Winner: Best Buy, which bested Amazon in search visibility for Black Friday.

Loser: Brands that depend too much on celebrities. When Kendall Jenner took a break from Instagram, Estée Lauder lost a huge chunk of engagement.

Loser: Second-tier pro athletes, whose low wages are yet another illustration of what the winner-take-all economy has become.

Domains of companies referenced above:
  • airbnb.com
  • bestbuy.com
  • amazon.com
  • esteelauder.com

Auto-generated (via YouTube.com) transcript:
A loser: hotels.
What is a requirement or a competence of growing market cap billions of dollars a year?
You lie.
Airbnb has been lying to the hotel industry and us, saying they are "complementary," not a threat to the hospitality industry.
"I think for us to win, nobody in hospitality necessarily has to lose."
However, half of Airbnb demand comes from customers who would otherwise stay in traditional hotels, up from 41% last year.
But they're "complementary."
At the same time, the number of nights that U.S. hotels approach full occupancy has plunged 20%.
It's only going to get worse
as demand flattens and hotels lose out to Airbnb.
A big winner on Black Friday, who was written off for dead at the hands of Amazon?
Best Buy.
One way to compete with the Seattle giant? Win at search.
Best Buy registered the greatest share of first-page results for Black Friday-related searches, besting Amazon.
The big loser? Macy's.
Talk about kicking a horse while it's down.
Shoppers on Black Friday were greeted with a temporary shopping jam message
as the site crashed under the weight of site traffic.
A loser: brands subject to the whims of their celebrity endorsers.
The headline of Election Week was neither Trump nor Clinton,
but Kendall Jenner and her decision to take a week off from posting on Instagram.
"It's so crazy to me that it even became huge news like that."
Jenner's decision has had a significant impact on Estée Lauder.
7% of all posts on Lauder's Instagram page feature Kendall Jenner.
Only 3% of Jenner's posts feature the beauty brand, but those posts by Jenner account for 63% of Estée Lauder's total Instagram engagement.
So Jenner's decision to take a break from the platform has resulted in Estée Lauder losing two-thirds of its engagement on the platform.
A loser: second-tier pro athletes.
In another example of a winner-take-all economy,
being big league doesn't necessarily mean you're big league.
Single A minor league baseball salaries start at $1150 a month.
Pro soccer players in Europe average less than $1,000 a month - a fraction of the average salary of the top teams' players.
Earlier this year, two U.S. congressmen proposed a bill that would make minor leaguers exempt from minimum-wage requirements,
cementing their near-impoverished status and preserving America's greatest pastime: exploiting workers.

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MacroView: OECD & Trump: Fiscal Initiatives to Escape Low-growth Trap

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news: 1. OECD & Trump; 2. Confidence higher since Trump election; 3. FOMC rate increase; 4. Dollar strengthens, gold falls; 5. Trump talked, Fed listened; 6. Caveat from Jeff Gundlach; 7. Trump Summit with Tech Leaders; 8. Did Russia Hack the DNC and Clinton campaign? Who cares? 9. Student loans, which lie did they believe? 10. Good investing is boring.
MacroView Feature •  OECD and Trump Agree: Use Fiscal Initiatives to Escape Low-growth Trap

Jamie Dimon: Blame Bad Public Policy for Slow Growth

Video above published Dec. 15, 2016: JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon discussed Detroit’s economic recovery and whether the techniques they are using could be replicated elsewhere with Bloomberg’s Megan Murphy.

Make better use of fiscal initiatives to escape low-growth trap, OECD says in latest Global Economic Outlook (OECD.org Nov 28, 2016):
"Among the major advanced economies, activity is expected to accelerate in the United States, due to an assumed easing of fiscal policy, with the economy projected to grow by 2.3% in 2017 and 3% in 2018. The euro area will grow at a 1.6% rate in 2017 and by 1.7% in 2018. In Japan, growth is projected at 1% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018. The 35-country OECD area is projected to grow by 2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, according to the Outlook.
"With rebalancing continuing in China, growth is expected to continue drifting lower, to 6.4% in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018. India’s growth rates are expected to hover above 7.5% over the 2017-18 period, but many emerging market economies will continue to grow at a more sluggish pace. The deep recession in Brazil is expected to end in 2017, after which the economy will grow at a 1.2% rate in 2018.
"The Outlook draws attention to conditions that create a “window of opportunity” for new fiscal initiatives, as extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has led to very low interest rates and created fiscal space. A targeted annual increase in public spending of ½ percent of GDP could be financed for several years in most countries without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term. Combining this initiative with structural reforms, and acting collectively across countries, would boost the impact, according to the Outlook.
"“This is not a blank cheque for governments,” Mr Gurría said. “The OECD is calling for fiscal policy to be used more wisely, with spending targeted at areas that boost growth, like high-quality infrastructure investment, innovation, education and skills, which also make growth more inclusive.” Read the full speech.
The mission of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France, is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world. The OECD's goal is "to build a stronger, cleaner and fairer world." Members and partners of the OECDFor more see:

2.  Consumer, business, CEO confidence higher since Trump election"Americans from all corners of the economy seem to be enjoying the conditions a lot more since the election of Donald Trump. Nearly every measure of consumer, business, or executive confidence has gained in the month since the election, according to Michelle Meyer, chief US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch."--BusinessInsider.com (P.S. Someone ought to tell Michelle Obama.)

3.  U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Press Conference LIVE Video Replay 12/14/16The end of a flatline monetary policy?
source: Statista
4.  Dollar Climbs to Strongest Since 2003 on Fed Path; Bonds Drop | Bloomberg.com Dec 15, 2016: "The dollar climbed to the highest level since 2003 against the euro and gold plunged as the prospect of a steeper path for U.S. interest rates filtered through markets."

5. Trump Talked, the Fed Listened: Let’s Shrink the Balance Sheet, Bullard Says | WolfStreet.com

6. Caveat from Jeff Gundlach, December 13, 2016, webcast"... stocks typically rise in the days after an election, just as they have. But they drop after the president is sworn in, as investors realize that he does not have a magic wand to implement everything they are hopeful for ..."

7. Trump Summit with Tech LeadersTechReview: Silicon Valley's Pilgrimage to Trump Tower to Meet Trump.

8. Did Russia Hack the DNC and Clinton campaign? Who cares? If so, was it a good thing Wikileaks.org exposed Clinton & DNC corruption and collusion, including collusion with so-called mainstream media (MSM), the "rigged" Democratic primary against Bernie Sanders, all the conflicts of interest and "pay-to-play" schemes, and foreign government funding of the Clinton Foundation while Hillary was Secretary of State, $200-800,000 per speech fees, and all the other things the Clintons, the Clinton campaign, the Washington establishment, and mainstream media did not want us to know? I think you know the answer.
"Here are two of political history’s great constants: first, countries meddling in the internal affairs of others (both enemies and “friends”); and, second, bogus charges from a faction in one country that foreigners are meddling in its internal affairs to help another faction. Both are poison for any country that wishes to rule itself."--Jeremy Scahill, Jon Schwarz, TheIntercept.com
The WaPo-NYTimes-MSM narrative of Russian election hacking has become so incessant and emphatic that it’s easy to forget that no one has proven the claim. TheIntercept.com's Sam Biddle "sifted the public evidence, most of which comes from private security firms with a vested interest in the outcome, and found questionable assumptions, guesswork, and speculation." See Here’s the Public Evidence Russia Hacked the DNC — It’s Not Enough | TheIntercept.com December 14, 2016:
"It’s very hard to buy the argument that the Democrats were hacked by one of the most sophisticated, diabolical foreign intelligence services in history, and that we know this because they screwed up over and over again."
On the other hand, if you truly want to understand how and why Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, read How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election | POLITICO.com.

"People believe the news they want to ... The establishment is up for grabs."

9.  Which lie did they believe?--"Free government money, just sign here" or "With all the money you'll be making after college, the student loans won't be a problem"--Home ownership for those under 30 shrinks while student debt keeps growing:
Millennial (under age of 30) Home Ownership Shrinks as Student Loan Debt Grows

•  One More Thing: Good investing is boring
"If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring."--George Soros
“Good investing is usually quite boring.”--Adam Nash, CEO of Wealthfront

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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