Domain Mondo | domainmondo.com: macro economic

Showing posts with label macro economic. Show all posts

2018-12-11

UK Brexit Agreement Vote: Now A 'No Deal Brexit' or Renegotiate

Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019

For latest UPDATES go to: Brexit Breakthrough? UK Nears 'No Deal' Brexit Deadline, March 29, 2019.

House of Commons video, Tuesday 12 March 2019--May's 'Deal' Rejected 242-391--Motion: Debate on a Motion relating to Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018;

Parliament naive to rule out no-deal Brexit, UK lawmaker says

Lord Digby Jones, formerly the U.K.’s trade minister and director general of the CBI, discusses the January 29th votes of Parliament on a number of Brexit amendments. CNBC International TV video above published Jan 30, 2019.

1 March 2019: EU ready to give Britain more guarantees 'backstop' is temporary: Barnier--reuters.com: “We know that there are misgivings in Britain that the backstop could keep Britain forever connected to the EU,” Michel Barnier said in an interview with Germany’s Die Welt newspaper. “This is not the case. And we are ready to give further guarantees, assurances and clarifications that the backstop should only be temporary.”

"We still have it within our grasp to leave the European Union with a deal on 29 March. That's what I'm going to be working at." - PM @Theresa_May at EU-League of Arab States summit in Sharm el Sheikh pic.twitter.com/kbZJLMch92
— UK Prime Minister (@10DowningStreet) February 24, 2019

"The question the Brexiteers should have posed Remainers is complex: do you want to remain within and support closer European Political Union; accept closer integration and political union, adoption of the Euro, and take on board the presently undefined liabilities the Union will eventually have to accept across the Union? In other words, are you prepared to write unlimited cheques to facilitate regional policies and politics, pay Danegeld for crisis such as immigration, and effectively assume the costs of dis-functional populist politics in places like Italy, Eastern Europe, Greece, and dare I say it.. France."--Bill Blain, morningporridge.com 28 Nov 2018.

2017-01-23

MacroView | Trump's Worldview: Brexit & Friends, Partners & Adversaries

Domain Mondo's weekly review of macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • Trump's Worldview: Brexit & Friends, Partners & Adversaries:

UK Prime Minister Theresa May to meet with President Trump in Washington D.C., Friday Jan 27:

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will hold talks with US President Donald Trump in the White House this coming Friday (Jan. 27) on issues such as trade and security, with the UK Prime Minister being the first foreign leader to meet the US President since he took office. She told the BBC that the special relationship between the two countries enabled her to raise difficult matters.

Donald Trump: I’ll do a deal with the UK: "Donald Trump will offer Britain a quick and “fair” trade deal with America within weeks of taking office to help make Brexit a “great thing”."--The Sunday Times | thetimes.co.uk Jan. 15, 2017.

Bannon and Kushner engineer UK meetings | Axios.com Jan. 21, 2017: "Donald Trump will take his first foreign leader meeting as President with British Prime Minister Theresa May ... A senior source tells Axios that Trump's chief strategist Steve Bannon played an important role in pushing the meeting to happen earlier than originally planned. Bannon has also been in contact with Boris Johnson, the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and one of the chief cheerleaders of the Brexit movement. Jared Kushner was also very influential in the process, we are told ..."

"The US is already Britain's second-largest trading partner by country, after Germany. Trade between both countries is already more than 150 billion pounds ($186 billion), and the US is the single biggest source of inward investment to the UK, the [UK] embassy said."--CNN.com Jan. 22, 2017.

Trump's Worldview using the 4 levels noted in Rex Tillerson's Senate confirmation hearing:

Chart: Trump's Worldview | ©2017 DomainMondo.com All Rights Reserved.

Note: "Partners" too numerous to list all. Domain Mondo Editor's categorization based on Trump's past statements

"In India, where the right wing shares a strong political affinity with the American right, Mr. Trump’s inauguration was celebrated by Hindu nationalists and business leaders eager for more trade between the two nations ... “Trump’s victory is confirmed early due to his thoughts against Islamic terrorism and love for India and Hindus,” the group’s leader, Vishnu Gupta, said, according to Reuters. In Egypt, support for Mr. Trump remained fervent among the country’s anti-Islamist establishment."--NYTimes.com

EU Populists See Trump Victory as Beginning of End for Old Order | Bloomberg.com: "While a meeting of the populist right would once have been dismissed as a sideshow, Trump’s unexpected rise and the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU in last year’s referendum have focused investors’ concerns on the where the next threat to the European Union project might emerge. “The first major hit on the old order was Brexit,” Le Pen told a couple of hundred cheering supporters in Koblenz’s conference center. EU countries will soon “leave the prison of Europe,” she predicted, branding Merkel’s decision to let almost a million migrants into Germany last year “a catastrophe.” Trump himself has called the move “a catastrophic mistake.” Hammering on the key themes of her election campaign, Le Pen said every member of the euro area must have the possibility of leaving and that the shared currency [euro] is “destroying” the French economy."

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:
• TPP is dead: Trade Deals Working For All Americans | whitehouse.gov: ".... This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA. In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses." (emphasis added)

• China says can resolve trade disputes with new U.S. government | cnbc.com: "I believe China and the United States can resolve any disputes through dialogue and negotiation and that the China-U.S. commercial relationship will not significantly stray from the path of mutual benefit."--Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Sun Jiwen

• Inside the Trump White House: "Mr. Priebus [White House Chief of Staff] is navigating a West Wing crowded with powerful figures in their own right, including the president-elect’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who will always outweigh anyone else regardless of title; the chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon; the counselor Kellyanne Conway; Vice President-elect Mike Pence; and the economic adviser Gary Cohn, the blunt former Goldman Sachs executive who is rising fast in Mr. Trump’s circle."--NYTimes.com. Also: Warren Buffett Supports Trump on Cabinet Picks‘ Overwhelmingly’ | Bloomberg.com.

• EU corrupt or just inept? Spain’s Banks Openly Flout the Law Like Never Before | WolfStreet.com: "...“We probably have the best mortgage system in the world,” explained Francisco González, Executive Chairman of Spain’s second largest bank, BBVA, seemingly with a straight face last week at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos ..." See also: These Are The 3 Main Issues For Europe In 2017 | ZeroHedge.com: "... The EU is built around a massive exporter: Germany ... Neither China nor Russia will be increasing demand for German goods due to their own economic woes. And while Germany has managed to survive thus far by increasing exports to the UK and the US, this is not sustainable ..."

• Memos from Howard Marks | oaktreecapital.com: "Think back to just before ... [the] election. What did we know? The polls were almost unanimous in saying Hillary Clinton would win ... There was a near-universal belief that a Trump victory – as unlikely as it was – would be bad for the markets. So what happened? First Clinton didn’t win ... And second, the U.S. stock market had its best week since 2014! ... Thus two key observations can be made ... First, no one really knows what events are going to transpire. And second, no one knows what the market’s reaction to those events will be. One of the key conclusions we should draw from the surprises of 2016 is that the pundits often failed to understand people and their views. It’s clear that people who work in the media hadn’t understood many average Americans ..."

• Cutting Cash Would Be a Boon for the World’s Poor, Rogoff Says | Bloomberg.com: "The Nordic nations all rank among the least corrupt and most transparent in the world. Cash accounts for less than 5 percent of the money in circulation, making them the least cash-reliant group of countries on the planet. “If you do financial inclusion the way you’ve done it in Denmark for example, where you give everyone free debit cards, it would help a lot of problems,” Rogoff said in an interview in Copenhagen on Thursday, after speaking at a Skagen Funds conference. “I think the poor would be among the biggest beneficiaries.”" See also These are the Countries with the Biggest Debt Slaves, and Americans Are Only in 10th place | Wolf Street.com.

• Obama Presidency postscript--nice guy, good golf partner, failed President--among Obama's many failures: Obamacare, Syria, Libya ... and Education: Obama administration spent billions to fix failing schools, and it didn’t work | WashingtonPost.com.

One More Thing:
• Putin apparently got in the last word on the Russian Dossier Hoax #FakeNews:

Video above published Jan 17, 2017 -- Russian President Vladimir Putin: ".... I am not acquainted with Mr. Trump, I have not met him, I do not know what he will do in the international arena so I have no reason either to attack him, criticise him for something or defend him ... But these false stories are utter nonsense ... When Trump came to Moscow a few years ago, he was not a politician and we did not know about his political ambitions. He was a businessman, one of the rich people in America. Does anyone really think that our security services chase every American billionaire? Of course not, it is complete nonsense ... Trump arrived [in Moscow] and immediately went to meet with the Moscow prostitutes? First, he is a grown man and secondly, he is a man who was engaged in the organisation of beauty contests and communicated with the most beautiful women in the world for many years. You know, I can hardly imagine that he ran into a hotel to meet with our girls with low social responsibility ... Prostitution is a serious, ugly social phenomenon because many women are involved in it as they have no other way to provide themselves. And it is pretty much the fault of the society and the state. But people who make-up such falsifications that are currently spread about the US President-elect, that are invented and used in the political struggle, those people are worse than prostitutes. They have no moral restraints."

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo

DISCLAIMER

2016-12-19

MacroView: OECD & Trump: Fiscal Initiatives to Escape Low-growth Trap

Domain Mondo's weekly review of macro economic and investing news: 1. OECD & Trump; 2. Confidence higher since Trump election; 3. FOMC rate increase; 4. Dollar strengthens, gold falls; 5. Trump talked, Fed listened; 6. Caveat from Jeff Gundlach; 7. Trump Summit with Tech Leaders; 8. Did Russia Hack the DNC and Clinton campaign? Who cares? 9. Student loans, which lie did they believe? 10. Good investing is boring.

MacroView Feature • OECD and Trump Agree: Use Fiscal Initiatives to Escape Low-growth Trap

Jamie Dimon: Blame Bad Public Policy for Slow Growth

Video above published Dec. 15, 2016: JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon discussed Detroit’s economic recovery and whether the techniques they are using could be replicated elsewhere with Bloomberg’s Megan Murphy.

Make better use of fiscal initiatives to escape low-growth trap, OECD says in latest Global Economic Outlook (OECD.org Nov 28, 2016):

"Among the major advanced economies, activity is expected to accelerate in the United States, due to an assumed easing of fiscal policy, with the economy projected to grow by 2.3% in 2017 and 3% in 2018. The euro area will grow at a 1.6% rate in 2017 and by 1.7% in 2018. In Japan, growth is projected at 1% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018. The 35-country OECD area is projected to grow by 2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, according to the Outlook.

"With rebalancing continuing in China, growth is expected to continue drifting lower, to 6.4% in 2017 and 6.1% in 2018. India’s growth rates are expected to hover above 7.5% over the 2017-18 period, but many emerging market economies will continue to grow at a more sluggish pace. The deep recession in Brazil is expected to end in 2017, after which the economy will grow at a 1.2% rate in 2018.

"The Outlook draws attention to conditions that create a “window of opportunity” for new fiscal initiatives, as extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy has led to very low interest rates and created fiscal space. A targeted annual increase in public spending of ½ percent of GDP could be financed for several years in most countries without increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio in the medium term. Combining this initiative with structural reforms, and acting collectively across countries, would boost the impact, according to the Outlook.

"“This is not a blank cheque for governments,” Mr Gurría said. “The OECD is calling for fiscal policy to be used more wisely, with spending targeted at areas that boost growth, like high-quality infrastructure investment, innovation, education and skills, which also make growth more inclusive.” Read the full speech.

The mission of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris, France, is to promote policies that will improve the economic and social well-being of people around the world. The OECD's goal is "to build a stronger, cleaner and fairer world." Members and partners of the OECD. For more see:

2. Consumer, business, CEO confidence higher since Trump election: "Americans from all corners of the economy seem to be enjoying the conditions a lot more since the election of Donald Trump. Nearly every measure of consumer, business, or executive confidence has gained in the month since the election, according to Michelle Meyer, chief US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch."--BusinessInsider.com (P.S. Someone ought to tell Michelle Obama.)

3. U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Press Conference LIVE Video Replay 12/14/16. The end of a flatline monetary policy?

source: Statista

4. Dollar Climbs to Strongest Since 2003 on Fed Path; Bonds Drop | Bloomberg.com Dec 15, 2016: "The dollar climbed to the highest level since 2003 against the euro and gold plunged as the prospect of a steeper path for U.S. interest rates filtered through markets."

5. Trump Talked, the Fed Listened: Let’s Shrink the Balance Sheet, Bullard Says | WolfStreet.com

6. Caveat from Jeff Gundlach, December 13, 2016, webcast: "... stocks typically rise in the days after an election, just as they have. But they drop after the president is sworn in, as investors realize that he does not have a magic wand to implement everything they are hopeful for ..."

7. Trump Summit with Tech Leaders: TechReview: Silicon Valley's Pilgrimage to Trump Tower to Meet Trump.

Productive summit today w/ @realDonaldTrump & tech leaders focused on job creation & innovation pic.twitter.com/sizO8C83d6
— Mike Pence (@mike_pence) December 14, 2016

8. Did Russia Hack the DNC and Clinton campaign? Who cares? If so, was it a good thing Wikileaks.org exposed Clinton & DNC corruption and collusion, including collusion with so-called mainstream media (MSM), the "rigged" Democratic primary against Bernie Sanders, all the conflicts of interest and "pay-to-play" schemes, and foreign government funding of the Clinton Foundation while Hillary was Secretary of State, $200-800,000 per speech fees, and all the other things the Clintons, the Clinton campaign, the Washington establishment, and mainstream media did not want us to know? I think you know the answer.

"Here are two of political history’s great constants: first, countries meddling in the internal affairs of others (both enemies and “friends”); and, second, bogus charges from a faction in one country that foreigners are meddling in its internal affairs to help another faction. Both are poison for any country that wishes to rule itself."--Jeremy Scahill, Jon Schwarz, TheIntercept.com

The WaPo-NYTimes-MSM narrative of Russian election hacking has become so incessant and emphatic that it’s easy to forget that no one has proven the claim. TheIntercept.com's Sam Biddle "sifted the public evidence, most of which comes from private security firms with a vested interest in the outcome, and found questionable assumptions, guesswork, and speculation." See Here’s the Public Evidence Russia Hacked the DNC — It’s Not Enough | TheIntercept.com December 14, 2016:

"It’s very hard to buy the argument that the Democrats were hacked by one of the most sophisticated, diabolical foreign intelligence services in history, and that we know this because they screwed up over and over again."

On the other hand, if you truly want to understand how and why Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election, read How Clinton lost Michigan — and blew the election | POLITICO.com.

"People believe the news they want to ... The establishment is up for grabs."--Lefsetz.com

9. Which lie did they believe?--"Free government money, just sign here" or "With all the money you'll be making after college, the student loans won't be a problem"--Home ownership for those under 30 shrinks while student debt keeps growing:

Millennial (under age of 30) Home Ownership Shrinks as Student Loan Debt Grows

• One More Thing: Good investing is boring

"If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring."--George Soros.

“Good investing is usually quite boring.”--Adam Nash, CEO of Wealthfront

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo

DISCLAIMER

2016-11-28

MacroView | Trump Effect: U.S. Stock Markets & Consumer Confidence Rise

Domain Mondo's weekly review of macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • Trump Effect: U.S. Stock Markets & Consumer Confidence Rise

Dow Jones Industrial Average (source: google.com)

On Friday, November 25, 2016, the Dow Jones industrials climbed 68.96 points, or 0.4%, to 19152.14 (see chart above), and the S&P 500 Index rose 8.63 points, or 0.4%, to 2213.35, while the NASDAQ Composite Index gained 18.24 points, or 0.3%, to 5398.92. All three indexes, as well as the Russell 2000, closed at record highs on Friday.

For the week, the Dow was up 1.5%, the S&P 500 up 1.4%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index up 1.45%. Since the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 8, the Dow industrials are up 4.5%, having reached eight new records during that period. Meanwhile small-company index Russell 2000 has closed at a new record every trading session since Nov. 14. “Nothing is stopping the market at this point.”--Jonathan Corpina, senior managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners, as reported by WSJ.com.

US markets: Donald Trump’s bull run | FT.com: "David Donabedian, chief investment officer at Atlantic Trust, noted that as soon as the election results were clear, the Trump team put out a pro-growth economic message. “Coming right out of the block in the first 12 hours they hit all the right notes: the need to boost economic growth, the need for corporate tax reform, the importance of boosting infrastructure spending,” he says. That turned a fear of a visceral sell-off into an environment where “animal spirits” were restored — and upward momentum took hold."

Likewise, the University of Michigan reported Wednesday that Americans became more optimistic about their finances and the economy after Donald Trump won the presidential election:

"The initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy. The post-election gain in the Sentiment Index was +8.2 points above the November pre-election reading, pushing the Index +6.6 points higher for the entire month above the October reading. The post-election boost in optimism was widespread, with gains recorded among all income and age subgroups and across all regions of the country."--University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, chief economist, Richard Curtin

Other news:

• One day after the European Parliament called for a pause in Turkey’s EU accession talks in protest at Ankara’s “repressive” and “disproportionate” response to a violent coup attempt earlier this year:

'You have betrayed your promises. If you go any further those border gates will be opened.' https://t.co/1GrM45z9d0
— Financial Times (@FT) November 25, 2016

• French Prime Minister Manuel Valls Warns Europe Could Collapse: France's PM Manuel Valls said Germany and France, for decades the axis around which the EU revolved, had to help refocus the bloc to tackle an immigration crisis, a lack of solidarity between member states, Britain's pending exit, and terrorism--Time.com.

• Italy’s Crisis Turns into a Multi-Headed Hydra | WolfStreet.com: "As with all major crises, Italy’s current predicament is a multi-headed hydra. It’s a banking crisis, an economic crisis, a debt crisis, and a political crisis all rolled into one, and all coming to a head at the same time."

• Business investment boosts UK economic growth after Brexit vote | FT.com: "Expansion beats forecasts." See also Tech sector defies Brexit worries: IBM will triple the number of its cloud data centers in Britain, joining Facebook and Google in investing in the UK after its vote to leave the European Union.--Reuters.com

• India decides to wreck its economy: Earlier this month Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that 500 and 1,000 rupee notes had become illegal as part of a crackdown on corruption. But scarcity of new notes has brought the economy to a virtual standstill. India is a country of 1.25 billion people and has a largely cash economy. 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were 86% of the cash in circulation.

Foreign investors have been pulling out of India for the past 2 weeks https://t.co/x9pJ2LHand pic.twitter.com/Aff9q5MSzp
— Bloomberg (@business) November 26, 2016

• We've heard this before--China Issuing ‘Strict Controls’ on Overseas Investment | WSJ.com: "Government to announce new measures intended to curb capital flight."--on the other hand, where there is a will, there is a way.

• Fidel Castro, Who Turned Cuba Into Communist Outpost, Dies at 90 | Bloomberg.com.

• You're Fired! Donald Trump’s media summit was a ‘f—ing firing squad’ | NYPost.com: "Donald Trump scolded media big shots during an off-the-record Trump Tower sitdown on Monday ... “The meeting took place in a big board room and there were about 30 or 40 people, including the big news anchors from all the networks,” the other source said. “Trump kept saying, ‘We’re in a room of liars, the deceitful dishonest media who got it all wrong.’ He addressed everyone in the room calling the media dishonest, deceitful liars. He called out Jeff Zucker by name and said everyone at CNN was a liar, and CNN was [a] network of liars,” the source said ..."

• What the media got wrong about Trump. “Literally everything. I can’t think of another instance in which the media was so off in its predictions, evaluations and the ways in which it hedged its bets. Every person and every outlet, the fundamental assumption was not only was Donald Trump unfit to be president but that he would never be president. If the American people didn’t stop him from being president, the media would stop him with their opprobrium and their collective decision he couldn’t be.”--Michael Wolff | digiday.com

• The Washington Post, useful-idiot shills for a failed frantic status-quo, has lost control of the narrative: "Don't you think it fair and reasonable that anyone accusing me of being a shill for Russian propaganda ought to read my ten books in their entirety and identify the sections that support their slanderous accusation? I was amused to find my site listed on the now-infamous list of purportedly Russian-controlled propaganda sites cited by The Washington Post. I find it amusing because I invite anyone to search my 3,600-page archive of published material over the past decade (which includes some guest posts and poems) and identify a single pro-Russia or pro-Russian foreign policy entry."--Charles Hugh Smith

That WPost story on Russian fake news is total journalistic garbage, but it serves various agendas so it's being uncritically passed around.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 25, 2016

Check to see how many journalists uncritically promoted and heralded this story today. It's scary. https://t.co/RtwkbSGCV8
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 25, 2016

This type of online censorship is a major objective of this new "fake news" craze, which is why a clear definition of the term is crucial. https://t.co/CqjBnk30e9
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) November 25, 2016

• Pollsters go back to drawing board | TheHill.com: "In Wisconsin, Clinton swept all 19 polls conducted since June, according to RealClearPolitics.com ... this year, 13 percent of voters told exit pollsters they decided their vote in the campaign’s final week, with Trump winning that group by 5 percentage points." See also: The Presidency Can Bend to Fit Trump's Personality | Bloomberg.com.

• Pelosi to Face Little-Known Challenger as Democrats Rue Election | Bloomberg.com: “We have lost over 60 [House] seats since 2010. We have the fewest Democrats in state and federal offices since Reconstruction [1865-1877, the era after the American Civil War]"--Congressman Tim Ryan. See also Senate Democrats’ Surprising Strategy: Trying to Align With Trump | NYTimes.com.

• C-SPAN’s Trump Tower #Elevatorcam, and the Meaning of Life: "It’s all oddly irresistible, sort of making the purely pedestrian mesmerizing, even prompting the attempted dissection of every fragment of chitchat. It seemed as if one tenant asked the chief of the elevators (the guy at the gold elevator front desk emblazoned with a black “T-T” on the front), “Is Trump here?” It appeared as if the response was yes."--VanityFair.com

Looks like C-SPAN will soon have some competition:

We'll resume live streaming next week with our own version of @TrumpTower #elevatorcam. Also, live events and new programs #ThankYouRallies
— RSBN TV (@RSBNetwork) November 23, 2016

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo

DISCLAIMER

2016-11-14

MacroView: False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth

Domain Mondo's weekly review of macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth: As I indicated last week, the week's macro economic event was the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. Here's the final wrap:

October 26, 2015 Bloomberg.com: The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton And Republicans are in denial about it.--False Narrative or Fake News?

November 5, 2016 The New York Times: Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump’s Winning Map Is Unclear--False Narrative or Fake News?

I could give literally hundreds more examples--many embedded with much more egregious false narratives or fake news--each with the narrative or message from the establishment media a/k/a MSM (mainstream media) from 2015 through election day, November 8, 2016, that "Hillary Clinton will be the next President." Of course if you were gullible enough to be taken in by the MSM stream of misinformation, the truth of the final results from November 8th, came as a BIG surprise and shock--it didn't turn out at all like MSM had been telling us for over a year it would:

Donald Trump wins the presidency in stunning upset over Clinton https://t.co/iNz2uqswwd
— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 9, 2016

What's coming is seismic. A largely non-ideological populist dealmaker who's running a party in full control https://t.co/kuFqM6LmS8
— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 10, 2016

While Ryan-McConnell link w/ Trump is crucial to coming years, most Rs say Schumer-Trump is perhaps most impt relationship in DC.
— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 10, 2016

Reference to "Schumer" in the tweet above is to U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the U.S. Senate minority (Democrats) leader when Trump takes office on January 20, 2017.

In retrospect:
1) How did the media get it so wrong? Start here and here.
2) Did the media's constant and lengthy pro-Hillary campaign of disinformation, motivated by misinformed or intentional bias, over the extended period from 2015 through 2016, produce social contagion, influencing some voters to vote for Hillary (vs. Bernie Sanders and vs. Donald Trump) who otherwise would have voted for the other candidate? The answer is most likely yes based on studies of media influence over voters and elections--see this and this. So now it is ironic that the pro-Hillary camp is complaining that somehow Trump's election is due to the power of "fake news" on Facebook. What about the false narratives and fake news in the pro-Hillary mainstream media 2015-16?

• Rebekah Mercer, Daughter of Major Donor, Named to Trump Role | Bloomberg.com: "Rebekah Mercer, whose wealthy family has sought for years to reshape conservative politics with a populist, anti-establishment message, was named to President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team." The Mercers are also investors in London's CambridgeAnalytica.org, the data and analytics company used by the Trump campaign.

Peter Thiel Joins Trump's Transition Team:

Venture capitalist Peter Thiel will join President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team, a move that solidifies the Facebook board member’s power and could help Silicon Valley have a say in the next administration. Bloomberg's Cory Johnson reports on "Bloomberg Markets" on Nov 11, 2016.

• Members of Trump's Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee:
Mike Pence, VP-elect, Presidential Transition Chairman
Vice Chairs:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Dr. Ben Carson
Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich
Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, USA (Ret.)
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions
Other members:
Congressman Lou Barletta
Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi
Congressman Chris Collins
Jared Kushner, Real Estate Developer, Investor & Entrepreneur (Trump's son-in-law)
Congressman Tom Marino
Rebekah Mercer (see above)
Steven Mnuchin (Trump Campaign Finance Chairman and likely next U.S. Secretary of the Treasury)
Congressman Devin Nunes
Anthony Scaramucci (Founder of SkyBridge Capital)
Peter Thiel (Entrepreneur and VC, Board member of Facebook, Inc.)
Donald Trump Jr.
Eric Trump
Ivanka Trump
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Trump's White House chief of staff
Trump Campaign CEO Stephen K. Bannon, to be Trump's chief strategist and senior counselor

• The "Trump Rally" on Wall Street this past week:

S&P 500 Index

Trump's impact on US economy | FT.com Opinion:

Video above published Nov 10, 2016. Martin Wolf discusses the benefits and risks of Trump's plans to boost U.S. economic growth.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo

DISCLAIMER

2016-11-07

MacroView: It's All About The US Presidential Election on Tuesday

Domain Mondo's weekly review of macro economic and investing news:

The End Is Nigh | NYTimes.com: "... the first day of her Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of state is the day she registered her server domain name: clintonemail.com. It was a reckless and entitled move that drew the F.B.I. into the election and set off a frenzy among House Republicans ... In the hacked emails, the candidate’s advisers Neera Tanden and John Podesta recoil from the Hillary henchmen. When Brock attacked Bernie Sanders about his health during the primaries, Tanden worried about Hillary’s trust in the “kind of a nut bar” Brock: “Hillary. God. Her instincts are suboptimal.” About Blumenthal, the Hillary consigliere who helped smear Monica Lewinsky and was part of the ethically blurry Clinton Inc., Podesta said to Tanden: “It always amazes me that people like Sid either completely lack self-awareness or self-respect. Maybe both. Will you promise to shoot me if I ever end up like that?”... even Chelsea was concerned about the foundation’s ethical morass. The problem with Donald Trump is: We don’t know which of the characters he has created he would bring to the Oval Office. The trouble with Hillary Clinton is: We do know. Nobody gets less paranoid in the White House."--by Maureen Dowd (emphasis added)

MacroView Feature • No matter where you live or whether you can vote in the U.S. Presidential Election which concludes Tuesday, November 8th, this coming week's macro economic event is the outcome of that election. As reported just 2 days ago:

"... retreat of the stock market ahead of the 2016 election continued Friday, with the market falling for a ninth straight day. Wall Street is now in its longest period of decline in more than three decades [since 1980 when Ronald Reagan won over Jimmy Carter]. Investors continue to focus on the U.S. presidential election, which has become too close for comfort for some investors ... " Translation: Wall Street thought the fix was in and this year's election would be a Hillary Clinton Coronation. A proven stock market metric (86% accuracy since 1928), the S&P 500 index, is signaling Donald Trump will win the election."

What happens if the S&P 500 is right, and Trump wins? Many expect a Brexit-like selloff in the stock market, which like Brexit, may be a buying opportunity. The "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach, who still thinks Trump is going to win, is predicting a Trump administration will provide fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending which should be a positive for the economy. However, unlike others, Gundlach does not believe the election outcome to be particularly important, in terms of the market, since in his view a Clinton administration would also engage in fiscal stimulus spending.

Watch below the Financial Times video interview of Stephen Moore, Donald Trump's senior economic advisor, about the Republican candidate's trade and tax policies.

Trump's economic plan:

Video above published Nov 4, 2016: FT.com's Ed Luce goes head-to-head with Stephen Moore, Donald Trump's senior economic advisor, about the Republican candidate's trade and tax policies.

Where do we stand going into the Election on Tuesday? Here's one scenario (of many):

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Map above: Clinton 213 vs Trump 230 electoral votes, with 95 electoral votes in "toss up" states (shown in gray). Remember the Presidential Election is determined by Electoral College votes which total 538, not the popular vote totals. The winner needs at least 270 electoral votes. If the above map holds true when results come in Tuesday evening, Trump can win by gaining 40 additional electoral votes, e.g., Florida + Pennsylvania would put him over the top at 279 electoral votes. To create your own map click on the link above or go to: Create Your Own President Map | RealClearPolitics.com. For more on the Electoral College, see video at the bottom of this post.

Trump's schedule for the last 2 days of the campaign (Sunday and Monday), indicates he's hitting most of the swing states in play plus more: Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan (2 stops), Pennsylvania (2 stops), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

• Even if Trump doesn't win, the issues he raised are not going away and have already had an impact. See, e.g., International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde: Globalization has to work for all--Bloomberg.com.

• Likewise, Trump's supporters are not just going to go away. For example, entrepreneur and venture capitalist Peter Thiel defends his most contrarian move yet--supporting Trump:

“The millions of people who vote for Trump are not doing it because of the worst things he said or did,” Mr. Thiel said. “That’s ridiculous. The Americans who are voting for Trump are doing it because they judge the situation of the country to be urgent. We’re at such a crucial point that you have to overlook personal characteristics ... San Francisco, Manhattan and Washington, D.C., are doing well, but the presidential campaign has laid bare the angst of many other places. Feelings of decline are rampant. “Most of the millennials have lower expectations than their baby boomer parents,” Mr. Thiel said. “Where I differ from others in Silicon Valley is in thinking that you can’t fence yourself off. If it continues, it will ultimately be bad for everybody.” And if Clinton wins? “There will be a very big need to push back on the sort of happy but misleading consensus about things,” Mr. Thiel said. “There will be an important role for me and others to somehow play in speaking truth to power.”--NYTimes.com

• No matter the outcome Tuesday, remember after voting, that the actual outcome is beyond your control. What you can control is your own behavior, and how you respond to events, which in the final analysis, may matter much more than the event itself. So don't fear events that are outside of your own control. Instead, pay attention to your own responses and behavior.

• November 8 is election day in the U.S.--How the U.S. elects its President:

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo

DISCLAIMER

2018-12-11

UK Brexit Agreement Vote: Now A 'No Deal Brexit' or Renegotiate

2017-01-23

MacroView | Trump's Worldview: Brexit & Friends, Partners & Adversaries

2016-12-19

MacroView: OECD & Trump: Fiscal Initiatives to Escape Low-growth Trap

2016-11-28

MacroView | Trump Effect: U.S. Stock Markets & Consumer Confidence Rise

2016-11-14

MacroView: False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth

2016-11-07

MacroView: It's All About The US Presidential Election on Tuesday

Domain Mondo archive