Showing posts with label Election2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election2016. Show all posts

2017-01-09

MacroView: UK Economy Defies Economists' Dire Brexit Predictions (video)

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  UK has the world’s top economy, defying the dire Brexit predictions of economists: "Britain [UK] ended last year as the strongest of the world’s advanced economies with growth accelerating in the six months after the Brexit vote, it was revealed yesterday (Jan. 5). Business activity hit a 17-month high last month, meaning that the economy grew by 2.2 per cent last year — more than the six other leading nations, including the US, Germany and Japan. Far from slowing after the referendum in June, as predicted by the Treasury and Bank of England, growth appeared to have improved ..."--theTimes.co.uk (emphasis added).
UK's London Stock Exchange benchmark index, the FTSE 100:

Since the Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, the FTSE 100 has advanced 13.76%, closing Friday (Jan 6) at another new record high close of 7,210.05 (see chart above). See also: FTSE 100 recovers to reach another record close | BBC.com 6 Jan 2017: "The FTSE 100 edged up by 0.2%, or 14.74 points, to 7,210.05, a seventh consecutive record close ... Neil Wilson from ETX Capital pointed out that Friday's close means the index has risen for five consecutive weeks - the best performance since the Brexit vote in June."

UK economy defies Brexit predictions:

Video above published Jan 5, 2017, by the Financial Times (ft.com): A series of positive UK economic data has defied economists' predictions of a sharp downturn immediately after the Brexit vote on June 23, 2016. The FT.com's Martin Sandbu and Chris Giles unpick why consumer spending has been so strong and discuss the outlook for 2017. See also What Have the "Experts" Gotten Right? In the Real Economy, They're 0 for 5 | washingtonsblog.com and SeekingAlpha.com Jan. 3, 2017: "The Brexit bashing continues [even] after British manufacturing growth soared to a two-and-a-half-year high last month, fueled by new orders from both home and abroad. Markit's U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1, from 53.6 in November, faring much better than many economists predicted in the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU. The FTSE 100 hit a new record high on the news, rising 0.5% to 7173.50" and China sends first freight train on 8,000-mile journey to London | CNN.com: "This cargo train service highlights important trade partnership between the UK and China post-Brexit," said Oscar Lin, manager of the UK-based Onetwothree Logistics, which is handling customs clearance and distribution for goods on the train, according to state-run China Daily."

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:

•   Obama's Legacy: For years, Obama insisted that Syria wasn't of great strategic importance to the United States. His miscalculation had massive repercussions, including upon Europe. Europe has struggled for years to assimilate Muslim arrivals from the Middle East and Africa, many of whom do not adhere to European cultural values. The waves of Syrian refugees unleashed by Obama's failure to contain the Syrian civil war created a crisis of unparalleled magnitude in Europe, throwing countries from Turkey and Hungary to Germany and France into turmoil--BusinessInsider.com. See also: The rest of the story: What Obama won’t tell you about his legacy | MarketWatch.com.

•   China, Inc."China's strategy is defined and directed by the Communist Party of China (CPC). It is, in other words, a State initiative, conceived to accomplish State strategic purposes. It is most of all a political initiative designed to enhance and project Chinese power. It is not in any way a product of conventional business strategic thinking ... conventional measures of business success or failure like return on capital or profitability have little or no significance."--SeekingAlpha.com. See also Time for constructive confrontation with China | TheHill.com: "... there is a yawning gap between China's WTO commitments and its actual practices — and it continues to grow. For example, China promised to stop requiring transfers of technology as a condition of market access, but it hasn't. It promised to shrink its state-owned industries as a share of its total economy, but it hasn't. And it promised to significantly reduce intellectual property theft, but it hasn't. There is a long list of these kinds of broken promises, revealing the WTO's enforcement practice for what it is: a paper tiger ..."

•   Election 2016 Redux: Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated U.S. President on Jan. 20th. Until then, we have sideshows in the media, courtesy of the Obama administration and other politicos:
John Harwood is an American journalist who is the chief Washington Correspondent for CNBC.com. He is also a contributor for The New York Times.

Mediagazer.com: "US intelligence report: Russia Today [a/k/a RT.com] played a key role in the Putin-ordered campaign to undermine the US election, collaborating with WikiLeaks." RT.com? Most Americans have never even heard of, much less watched or read RT.com, until now, so I went to the website and there is some interesting content there, particularly with the free "publicity" generated by the Obama administration and the U.S. government's "national 'intelligence' community." I recommend you read the following:
We all know mainstream media in the U.S. (NYTimes.com, WashingtonPost.com, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, et al ), were trying to help Hillary Clinton win the White House ("the downfall of the mainstream media in the presidential election, it was a self-satisfied echo chamber"--Lefsetz.com). The mainstream media narrative has changed from "Hillary will win the election, Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes" to Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House | WashingtonPost.com. If you believe the Obama administration, and its "national 'intelligence' community," then you know who to thank for exposing the corruption and collusion of the Clintons, the Clinton campaign, DNC, and media: WikiLeaks and Russia. Apparently, if not for WikiLeaks.org and Russian hackers, we would have never known of the efforts of the Clinton campaign and DNC to "rig" the primary elections against Bernie Sanders, nor would we have known of the extent of corruption and collusion involving Bill and Hillary Clinton, the Clinton Foundation, DNC, media, and others, including foreign governments and other 'special interests' who paid the Clintons $200,000 to $800,000 per speech, and also funded the Clinton Foundation while Hillary was Secretary of State, as well as Hillary Clinton running her U.S. Secretary of State communications through a private "home brew" email server from which she destroyed 30,000+ emails so the public would never know the true extent of her nefarious activities, including the full extent of the Clintons' pay-to-play schemes.

Also remember, the "mainstream media," including the Washington Post and New York Times, published articles detailing the disclosures provided by and through WikiLeaks.org, and the authenticity of the hacked emails and other documents provided by WikiLeaks has also been supported in the course of the U.S. government investigation into the hacks. All governments, including the U.S. government, hack other governments, including political parties and politicians--see NSA tapped German Chancellery for decades | TheGuardian.com--there is nothing unusual here, except the exposure of corruption and collusion of the Clintons, Clinton campaign, DNC, and establishment elites, including "mainstream media." Had Clinton won the campaign, as the media and elites expected, we would be not be hearing about "Russian hacking."

A reset in the U.S.-Russia relationship could be a "win-win" for everyone, including Europe. Putin and Russia appear to be willing, and Trump and his nominee for Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, are not "carrying the baggage" of Obama and Hillary Clinton, nor beholden to the "inside the beltway" Cold War anti-Russia establishment. #DrainTheSwamp. Read Trump Aims to Cut the Neocon Deep State Off at the Knees.

•  One more thing: "Television, newspapers and other media industries are struggling with slow-to-declining advertising revenue."--Bloomberg.com. Perhaps that explains the media's post-election hysteria? Read WashPost Is Richly Rewarded for False News About Russia Threat While Public Is Deceived | theIntercept.com.

    -- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-12-09

    Election Night 2016 Redux, Donald Trump's Triumph via Twitter

    Just one month ago, Donald Trump shocked the elites and establishment media by winning the 2016 election to become the 45th President of the United States, garnering a total of 306 electoral votes (only 270 electoral votes are needed to win) to Hillary Clinton's 232 electoral votes:
    "... Hillary and her Clinton campaign organization, and Clinton supporters, were in such shock and disbelief on election night. Hillary couldn't even emotionally handle showing up to concede at the Javits Center election night, but instead, sent John Podesta who told everybody to 'go home.'"--Why Hillary Lost | DomainMondo.com.
    Email received in early December by the Editor of Domain Mondo from a Manhattanite who holds a senior position at a major Wall Street firm:
    "Like many others, I was surprised by the results of the election.  I guess I was persuaded by the polls that indicated that Hillary Clinton would win ... She also had a significant advantage in the Electoral College [according to the pundits and pollsters' projections] ...  On election night, I attended two parties given by major donors to the Democratic Party.  When I arrived at each the mood was upbeat (one was black tie–preferred in anticipation of a celebratory occasion). By nine o’clock the crowd was becoming despondent and by eleven most had left.  I thought I would try to get some sleep around midnight and called a Washington contact whom I knew was staying up all night. I asked him to call me when the outcome was certain.  He didn't call, but sent me an email at 1:42am saying that Pennsylvania had gone for Donald Trump and it was over.  Pennsylvania!"
    Twitter.com May Have Predicted the Election | technologyreview.com"The votes for Brexit and Donald Trump contradicted pollsters, but some researchers say Twitter was sending accurate signals all along ..."

    Election 2016 via Twitter.com:


    The #TrumpTrain tracks run through Pennsylvania














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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-12-02

    Scott Galloway on Facebook's Roadkill: Snapchat? (video)

    Scott Galloway on Facebook's Roadkill:

    Video above published by L2inc.com on Dec 1, 2016: NYU Stern marketing professor Scott Galloway presents the week's biggest winners and losers in digital:

    Loser: Nike. Google searches for "Nike jobs" pale in comparison to Amazon, Facebook, and Google, illustrating how recruitment in the workplace has shifted towards digitally native companies.

    Loser: Snapchat, which Facebook is essentially cloning with a new camera-first interface.

    Loser: Pollsters. Amazon's bestsellers list captures American feelings about the presidential election better than any surveys.

    Auto-generated transcript via YouTube.com:

    0:02 A loser: Nike - and to be fair, all the old hot jobs of yesterday.
    0:07 Google searches for "Nike jobs" pale in comparison to Amazon, Facebook and Google,
    0:11illustrating how recruitment and retention in the workplace has shifted toward digitally native companies.
    0:17 Our research reveals that talented digital employees at major agencies are defecting to tech companies.
    0:23 Facebook and Google currently employ over 2,000 individuals who previously worked at WPP,
    0:28 while WPP has only attracted 124 former Facebook or Google employees.
    0:35 Most of them are student ambassadors or interns.
    0:38 In sum, these are the people that interned at Google and didn't get jobs.
    0:42 It takes approximately 60 WPP employees to do $10 million in business, versus only eight at Google -
    0:49 allowing the tech company to treat its employees much better.
    0:53 A loser: Snapchat, which Facebook is essentially cloning with a new camera-first interface design currently being tested in Ireland.
    1:01 I'm convinced that Facebook is just going to release a product called Snapchat.
    1:04 During Facebook's quarterly earnings call, Zuckerberg explained that Facebook now sees the camera as the future of how people share and communicate.
    1:12 Sound familiar?
    1:14 "We believe a camera will be the main way that we share."
    1:17 "Snapchat is a camera company. It's not a social company. It's a camera company."
    1:22 Facebook has already borrowed Snapchat's good ideas six or seven times.
    1:26 We stand by our prediction. Snapchat will lose value in 2017 at the hands of the most agile, impressive company in the world: Facebook.
    1:36 Losers: pollsters.
    1:38 It's as if pollsters and my marketing colleagues didn't get the memo that in a digital age surveys are obsolete, as you can measure everything.
    1:45 Just look at Amazon.
    1:46 These were the top 10 best-selling items on the platform after the results were announced.
    1:51 Three of them are Trump T-shirts and hats.
    1:54 However, two are passport holders. They earned spots on the retailer's Movers and Shakers list.
    2:00 Let's be honest: the events of two weeks ago were deeply disturbing.
    2:04 I'm of course referring to episode 5 of Westworld: Contrapasso.
    2:08 We get it. The robots have a memory and they're about to go gangster.
    2:11 Get on with it.
    2:13 You know what that show needs? Yul Brynner.
    2:16 What makes a badass? Your name - Yul.
    2:20 My 11th son by my sixth wife I am going to name Yul.
    2:24 I'm going to get off Exit 71 in Long Island, take him to the Ronkonkoma forest, hold him to the sky and pronounce to the gods:
    2:31 Accept this wonderful male progeny
    2:34 with his elegant feet and majestic penis.
    2:38 His name is Yul.
    2:41 Too much?...


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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-11-16

    The "News Media" Got the Election WRONG, What Else Are They Missing?

    The Biggest LOSER of Election 2016? The "News Media"-- Infographic: Trust in Mass Media Erodes | Statista
    source: Statista

    Reporting the news "fully, accurately and fairly” used to be one of the most basic requirements for any news outlet that wanted to be taken seriously. But Gallup reports more and more Americans share the impression that the mass media (a/k/a mainstream media or MSM), including TV, radio, newspapers, and MSM websites online, fail to do just that. According to Gallup, Americans’ trust in mass media has dropped to a new low recently, with only 32 percent of U.S. adults expressing at least a fair amount of confidence in mass media to serve as an unbiased chronicler of current affairs. Drill down into the Gallup report and you discover only 14% of Republicans, 30% of independents, and just 26% of Americans 18-49 years old, express trust in the media. Many felt Donald Trump received an unfair amount of negative press, and even Democrats' trust in the news media is declining (though less so than other demographic groups):
    "I can’t read the newspaper. Never mind watch television. Donald Trump ran for President in plain sight and these people missed it, all of them. What else are they missing? ... I used to trust the institutions, now I no longer do ... I was at lunch Friday with a heavy hitter, the toppermost of the entertainment world, and I asked him if reporters ever called him … He said ALL THE TIME! Did they know anything? NOTHING! And was the article ever right? NEVER! This happens to me on a regular basis. Some of the most trusted news outlets extant will call me for a quote. The reporter knows nothing about the subject, I take half an hour to explain it and they still get it wrong. Even worse, some of these ignoramuses argue with me because what I’m saying doesn’t fit their narrative."--Bob Lefsetz, Lefsetz.com (disclosure: Bob is a Democrat and voted for Hillary) (emphasis added)
    New York Times election forecast:
    Bob's suggested remedy? "Someone needs to lose their job over this. Not only Billy Bush, but the person in charge of the polling for the “New York Times,” that person has got to go, the whole team has to go. Actions have consequences ... Judith Miller got us into Iraq, she got booted. Boot a few more!" (emphasis and link added)

    Yes, actions have consequences. Want to know about the Presidential race next time, and who's leading? The lesson from Election 2016 is don't trust anything you read, see or hear via the New York Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, FOX, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, et al, especially their polling results. It's most likely just fake news and false narratives.

    Contrary to what the mostly biased-left mainstream media (MSM) believe, they are no longer a "trusted source of news" for most Americans. Those who are still watching, reading, listening, and trusting  them, are an increasingly diminishing audience ... hardly anyone cares what MSM says or does anymore because they are increasingly irrelevant. The news media have little credibility left after Election 2016 and that was hardly the beginning of the decline:

    2012:
    Infographic: Newspapers Lose Relevance as a News Source | Statista
    source: Statista

    2013: Infographic: Not Every Social Network Doubles as a News Source | Statista
    source: Statista


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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-11-10

    Trump Win Shocks Political & Media Establishment, Tech & Market Reaction

    Trump Win Shocks Political and Media Establishment:

    Published FT.com Nov 9, 2016: Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election confounded pundits and pollsters and even some of his own supporters. The FT's Cardiff Garcia looks at what happened on election night. Filmed by Ben Marino and Gregory Bobillot. Edited by Paolo Pascual. Additional footage from Reuters.

    2016 US Election Results: Republicans maintain control of the U.S. Senate & House of Representatives, and increase their number of State Governors according to RealClearPolitics.com:

    Latest vote tally (as of Nov 09, 2016) results in these Electoral College totals (Trump narrowly lost Virginia and New Hampshire) (map provided by 270towin.com):

    Tech lobbyist on Trump win:

    Published by FT.com Nov 9, 2016: Bradley Tusk, founder and CEO of Tusk Holdings, a consultancy in lobbying for tech companies, talks to FT Alphaville's Izabella Kaminska about how the establishment's inability to step outside its echo chamber contributed to Donald Trump's victory.

    Where now for markets:

    Published by FT.com Nov 9, 2016: The FT.com's Roger Blitz explains how markets are reacting to a Donald Trump presidency.

    After dropping in pre-market trading, the S&P 500 closed UP on Nov 9, 2016
    See also:

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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-11-09

    LIVE Breaking Video: Trump Headed to White House, Market Recovers

    UPDATES Nov 9, 2016:
    ELECTION 2016: LIVE Coverage & Analysis

    Global News and LIVE Coverage of U.S. Election on Bloomberg TV--Bloomberg's LIVE coverage of the U.S. election--breaking election news and analysis throughout the evening as polls close and states are called for Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump. Also key Senate and Congressional races.

    New York Times at 12 midnight ET Election Night:


    Real Clear Politics Results

    New York Times Results




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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-11-07

    MacroView: It's All About The US Presidential Election on Tuesday

    MacroView | © DomainMondo.com
    Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
    The End Is Nigh | NYTimes.com"... the first day of her Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of state is the day she registered her server domain name: clintonemail.com. It was a reckless and entitled move that drew the F.B.I. into the election and set off a frenzy among House Republicans ... In the hacked emails, the candidate’s advisers Neera Tanden and John Podesta recoil from the Hillary henchmen. When Brock attacked Bernie Sanders about his health during the primaries, Tanden worried about Hillary’s trust in the “kind of a nut bar” Brock: “Hillary. God. Her instincts are suboptimal.” About Blumenthal, the Hillary consigliere who helped smear Monica Lewinsky and was part of the ethically blurry Clinton Inc., Podesta said to Tanden: “It always amazes me that people like Sid either completely lack self-awareness or self-respect. Maybe both. Will you promise to shoot me if I ever end up like that?”... even Chelsea was concerned about the foundation’s ethical morass. The problem with Donald Trump is: We don’t know which of the characters he has created he would bring to the Oval Office. The trouble with Hillary Clinton is: We do know. Nobody gets less paranoid in the White House."--by Maureen Dowd (emphasis added)
    MacroView Feature • No matter where you live or whether you can vote in the U.S. Presidential Election which concludes Tuesday, November 8th, this coming week's macro economic event is the outcome of that election. As reported just 2 days ago:
    "... retreat of the stock market ahead of the 2016 election continued Friday, with the market falling for a ninth straight day. Wall Street is now in its longest period of decline in more than three decades [since 1980 when Ronald Reagan won over Jimmy Carter]. Investors continue to focus on the U.S. presidential election, which has become too close for comfort for some investors ... " Translation: Wall Street thought the fix was in and this year's election would be a Hillary Clinton Coronation. A proven stock market metric (86% accuracy since 1928), the S&P 500 index, is signaling Donald Trump will win the election."
    What happens if the S&P 500 is right, and Trump wins? Many expect a Brexit-like selloff in the stock market, which like Brexit, may be a buying opportunity. The "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach, who still thinks Trump is going to win, is predicting a Trump administration will provide fiscal stimulus in the form of  infrastructure spending which should be a positive for the economy. However, unlike others, Gundlach does not believe the election outcome to be particularly important, in terms of the market, since in his view a Clinton administration would also engage in fiscal stimulus spending.

    Watch below the Financial Times video interview of Stephen Moore, Donald Trump's senior economic advisor, about the Republican candidate's trade and tax policies.

    Trump's economic plan:

    Video above published Nov 4, 2016: FT.com's Ed Luce goes head-to-head with Stephen Moore, Donald Trump's senior economic advisor, about the Republican candidate's trade and tax policies.

    Where do we stand going into the Election on Tuesday? Here's one scenario (of many):

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
    Map above: Clinton 213 vs Trump 230 electoral votes, with 95 electoral votes in "toss up" states (shown in gray). Remember the Presidential Election is determined by Electoral College votes which total 538, not the popular vote totals. The winner needs at least 270 electoral votes. If the above map holds true when results come in Tuesday evening, Trump can win by gaining 40 additional electoral votes, e.g., Florida + Pennsylvania would put him over the top at 279 electoral votes. To create your own map click on the link above or go to: Create Your Own President Map | RealClearPolitics.com. For more on the Electoral College, see video at the bottom of this post.

    Trump's schedule for the last 2 days of the campaign (Sunday and Monday), indicates he's hitting most of the swing states in play plus more: Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan (2 stops), Pennsylvania (2 stops), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

    • Even if Trump doesn't win, the issues he raised are not going away and have already had an impact. See, e.g., International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde: Globalization has to work for all--Bloomberg.com.

    •  Likewise, Trump's supporters are not just going to go away. For example, entrepreneur and venture capitalist Peter Thiel defends his most contrarian move yet--supporting Trump:
    “The millions of people who vote for Trump are not doing it because of the worst things he said or did,” Mr. Thiel said. “That’s ridiculous. The Americans who are voting for Trump are doing it because they judge the situation of the country to be urgent. We’re at such a crucial point that you have to overlook personal characteristics ... San Francisco, Manhattan and Washington, D.C., are doing well, but the presidential campaign has laid bare the angst of many other places. Feelings of decline are rampant. “Most of the millennials have lower expectations than their baby boomer parents,” Mr. Thiel said. “Where I differ from others in Silicon Valley is in thinking that you can’t fence yourself off. If it continues, it will ultimately be bad for everybody.” And if Clinton wins? “There will be a very big need to push back on the sort of happy but misleading consensus about things,” Mr. Thiel said. “There will be an important role for me and others to somehow play in speaking truth to power.”--NYTimes.com
    •  No matter the outcome Tuesday, remember after voting, that the actual outcome is beyond your control. What you can control is your own behavior, and how you respond to events, which in the final analysis, may matter much more than the event itself. So don't fear events that are outside of your own control. Instead, pay attention to your own responses and behavior.

    •  November 8 is election day in the U.S.--How the U.S. elects its President:


    -- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-11-01

    Entrepreneur and VC Peter Thiel speaks at The National Press Club (video)

    Peter Thiel speaks at The National Press Club:

    Streamed live October 31, 2016: Billionaire venture capitalist and entrepreneur Peter Thiel has rocked Silicon Valley with his support for Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump. Thiel discusses his political endorsement and the 2016 election at a National Press Club speakers newsmaker event on Monday Oct. 31. He also discusses the Gawker case and his Libertarian philosophy.

    Thiel, who co-founded PayPal (paypal.com) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (palantir.com), endorsed Trump at the Republican National Convention in July and pledged a $1.25 million campaign donation in support of the candidate.
    See also: 
    •  Student LoansPeter Thiel's support of Trump and reaction among the Thiel fellows | BusinessInsider.com: "... The rising mountains of student debt is one reason Thiel started the fellowship program — and it's one of the marquee reasons he supports Trump. During his speech on Monday, Thiel said he's voting for Trump partly because millennials are "stuck" in a "broken system." "Our youngest citizens may not have huge medical bills, but their college tuition keeps on increasing faster than the rate of inflation, adding more every year to our $1.3 trillion dollar mountain of student debt," Thiel said. "America has become the only country where students take on loans they can never escape, not even by declaring bankruptcy. Stuck in this broken system, millennials are the first generation who expect their own lives to be worse than the lives of their parents." It's a message that has stuck a chord with a lot of millennials. William LeGate, a 2013 Thiel fellow, found that only some of his friends on the West Coast really questioned Thiel's ties to Trump. In his hometown of Atlanta, no one has asked his opinion of it, he said. Instead, some friends have asked about one of his investors' support of Hillary Clinton ..."

    •  Establishment media bias against Trump is rampantCNN quietly edits incorrect Trump story, only adds editor's note after media report | BusinessInsider.com"CNN on Sunday incorrectly reported that Donald Trump encouraged his supporters to vote multiple times, then quietly amended its online story when it became apparent the claim was not true."

    •  Five takeaways from the latest WikiLeaks releases | Oct 30, 2016 | TheHill.com:
    1. Democrats are on edge about what will come next 
    2. There are renewed calls to shutter the Clinton Foundation
    3. Bill Clinton's consulting firm confirmed emails authenticity 
    4. The Clinton campaign’s pushback hasn’t worked 
    5. Embarrassing infighting has spilled into the open 

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    DISCLAIMER

    2016-10-10

    MacroView: World's Central Bankers Doubling Down, Going For Broke?

    MacroView | © DomainMondo.com
    Domain Mondo's new weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:

    MacroView Feature • Doubling Down:"... it is capitalism itself that is threatened by the ongoing Martingale strategies of central banks. As central bank purchases grow, and negative/zero interest rate policies persist, they will increasingly inhibit capitalism from carrying out its primary function — the effective allocation of resources based upon return relative to risk ... This cannot end well."--Bill GrossSee also Bill Gross says global markets are one big casino created by central banks--MarketWatch.com.

    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.--William Butler Yeats

    •  The 3 Things That Spook People about the Stock Market:

    SkyBridge Capital [skybridgecapital.com] founder Anthony Scaramucci explains in the above video published Oct 3, 2016, by Fortune.com.

    •  The TRUST Index: Trust is eroding away in markets | BusinessInsider.com. See also Backlash to World Economic Order Clouds Outlook at IMF Talks | Bloomberg.com and Perry Capital Closing Flagship Fund After Almost Three Decades | Bloomberg.com.

    •  Bridgewater Ray Dalio's Long-Term Debt Cycle Charts--Ritholtz.com"It is no longer controversial to say that: … this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth … the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward … the risks are asymmetric to the downside … investment returns will be very low going forward, and … the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism."

    •  Deutsche Bank (db.com | $DB $DBK): German minister accuses Deutsche Bank of making speculation its business--"I did not know if I should laugh or cry ... [Deutsche Bank] made speculation a business model [and] is now saying it is a victim of speculators."--German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel--Reuters.com  See also Crisis of Globalization Lies Behind Deutsche Bank’s Troubles | WSJ.com"Deutsche has also paid a high price for its global ambitions ... it tried to buy market share through aggressive pricing, acquiring a reputation among its rivals as the “dumb money” in the market."

    •  A weak British Pound means UK-based assets are attracting more and more attention from foreign investors, particularly investors with US$. As a result, the London Stock Exchange benchmark index FTSE100 is up, up, up:

    •  Venture Capital: It is a pricing, not a value, game! "At the time of a VC investment, the VC wants to push today’s pricing for the company lower, so that he or she can get a greater share of the equity for a given investment in the company. Subsequent to the investment, the VC will want the pricing to go higher for two reasons. First, it makes the unrealized returns on the VC portfolio a much more attractive number. Second, it also means that any subsequent equity capital raised will dilute the VC’s ownership stake less ... This is a business where success is measured less on the quality of the companies that you build (in terms of the cash flows and profits they generate) and more on the price you paid to get into the business and the price at which you exit this business, with that exit coming from either an IPO or a sale. Consequently, how much you are willing to pay for something becomes a process of judging what you will get when you exit and working backwards."--aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com.

    •  Venture Capital hits a wall in Q3 as investments tumble 28% YOY: "According to a new report from the National Venture Capital Association, startups in the U.S. raised $15 billion in venture capital during the third quarter ending September, down 28.6 percent from $21 billion for the same period one year ago."--VentureBeat.com

    •  Election 2016One mashup of recent polls has Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump but remember that the Financial Times poll tracker ahead of the Brexit vote had “Remain” up by 2 points the day of the referendum. Betting odds have recently had Clinton at a 75% chance of winning; they had “Remain” at 85% the day before that vote. The USC Dornsife / LATimes.com daily tracking poll, on the other hand, for weeks has shown Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton. Consensus is that Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, won the VP Debate. Remaining Presidential debates: October 9th and October 19th (both are 9:00-10:30 pm EDT). Watch online here.

    Q3 2016 Earnings Season--companies on Domain Mondo's coverage list:
    1. Alibaba BABA
    2. Alphabet GOOG
    3. Amazon AMZN
    4. Apple AAPL
    5. Facebook FB
    6. GoDaddy GDDY
    7. Neustar NSR
    8. Rightside NAME
    9. Twitter TWTR
    10. Verisign VRSN
    Q3 2016 preview:  For Q3 2016, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -2.1%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q3, it will mark the first time the index has recorded six consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since FactSet.com began tracking the data in Q3 2008--read more here (pdf).

    Two More Reading Recommendations: 
    1. It's Time We Crush the Putrid Roach Motels of Philanthro-Crony-Capitalism, Starting with the Clinton Foundation--CharlesHughSmith.blogspot.com
    2. Why thousands of millionaires don’t pay federal income taxes--WashingtonPost.com.
    -- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

    feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


    DISCLAIMER

    2016-09-11

    News Review: IANA Transition Drama in D.C. and ICANN & Zika

    Domain Mondo's weekly review of the news and look ahead [pdf] starting with a macro view:

    Shining A Light: © DomainMondo.com  •  "There is a sense that markets are waiting impatiently as various macro risks loom on the horizon"--David Folkerts-Landau, Group Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank--Central Banks Around the Word are Dovish | ritholtz.com.

    •  Crude Oil Freight Rates Plunge to Record Lows | WolfStreet.com: "Overcapacity is the result of misallocation of resources by investors and/or governments that have been fooled by their own optimism, twisted policies, and central bank promises that their QE and a flood of cheap money would actually create real-economy demand. And overcapacity is now also sinking the oil tanker market." See also: The Great Debt Unwind Beneath the Surface: US Commercial Bankruptcies Soar | WolfStreet.com.

    •  Markets: Gathering Clouds?
    From August 10 to September 9: US benchmark S&P500 -2.19% and UK benchmark FTSE100 -1.30% 
    •  Julian Assange Vows Huge Wikileaks Dump on Hillary, Just Before the Debates | SantaMonicaObserver.com"No fan of Donald Trump, Assange really hates Hillary Clinton. Release may come on eve of 3d [final] debate."  Presidential Debates: 1) Sep 26; 2) Oct 9; and 3) Oct 19. Election Day: November 8, 2016. The USC Dornsife / Los Angeles Times tracking poll shows the race between Clinton and Trump tied (within margin of error). See Trump closes in on Clinton's projected electoral lead: Reuters/Ipsos Poll"A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters showed an 8-point lead for Clinton has vanished since the last week of August." See also Democrats wonder and worry: Why isn’t Clinton far ahead of Trump? | WashingtonPost.com  and Hillary's speech full of invective Friday night.
    ___________

    Feature • IANA Transition Drama in D.C.: Less than three weeks to go before the IANA Stewardship Transition is complete on October 1, 2016, and Republicans in Washington, D.C., have multiple forays underway in a last-ditch effort to delay the transition and extend the IANA functions contract which will otherwise expire September 30, 2016. Meanwhile ICANN and pro-transition forces in Washington are countering. For more see on Domain Mondo:
    This coming week U.S. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) will hold a subcommittee hearing entitled "Protecting Internet Freedom: Implications of Ending U.S. Oversight of the Internet,"--United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary | judiciary.senate.gov: Subcommittee on Oversight, Agency Action, Federal Rights and Federal Courts, Wednesday, September 14, 2016, at 10:00 AM EDT, in Dirksen Senate Office Building 226, Washington, D.C., Chairman Cruz presiding.

    See also ICANN fight intensifies ahead of Cruz-called hearing | POLITICO.com: Jamie Hedlund, VP of strategic programs in ICANN's Global Domains Division, argued in an interview with POLITICO.com that opposition was coming from individuals "who don't understand fundamentally what's at issue."  

    and The ICANN Debate: 6 Things You Need to Know | heritage.org"... six key points you need to know on this issue from Heritage expert Brett Schaefer ... 'the Obama administration has allowed political concerns to trump prudence and U.S. officials have downplayed and dismissed the many legitimate concerns that people have raised about the transition because it wants the transition to occur before it leaves office.'..."

    Feature • ICANN and Zika--tweets from #ICANN57 this past week:
    • If you need a 1 hour webinar and two blog posts to explain how to get to the #ICANN meeting, maybe you picked the wrong location. #ICANN57
    • @ICANN said on #ICANN57 webinar today, #zika has been endemic to India since 2013. Why, then, was this mtg moved from Puerto Rico to India?
    and ICANN Public Meetings:
    ___________

    Other ICANN, Internet Governance, and Domain Name News:

    •  The South China Morning Post has suddenly shut down its Chinese-language website | Quartz | qz.com"... the Chinese-language website [domain: nanzao.com] of Hong Kong’s main English newspaper, the South China Morning Post, is gone ... The South China Morning Post was acquired by Jack Ma, one of China’s richest men and the founder of e-commerce platform Alibaba, in December 2015. Joseph Tsai, the executive vice-chairman of Alibabatold the New York Times then that the decision to purchase the newspaper was made in order to provide coverage of China that was untouched by the “negative” bias of the Western media. In 2013, Jack Ma was reportedly furious at the Chinese language website of the South China Morning Post after it ran an interview with him, in which he said that the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square was “the most correct decision.”..."

    •   New gTLD Registry Operator and Registrar Rightside (eNom.com, Name.com), CEO Taryn Naidu, and CFO Tracy Knox, will be conducting one-on-one institutional investor meetings at the 2016 Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on Tuesday, September 13, 2016, at the Encore at Wynn Las Vegas. A copy of the investor presentation will be available in the Investors section of Rightside's website. Rightside shares (NASDAQ: NAME) have declined -32.86% since August 10th:

    •   New gTLD Registry and Registrar services provider Centralnic Group PLC (LON: CNIC) reported first-half 2016 results this past week: adjusted pre-tax profits of £948,000, though after tax the group had a £1,306,000 loss. $CNIC shares have declined -13.33% since August 10th (see chart above). Centralnic CEO's Statement: "The domain name industry is undergoing a period of disruption and consolidation ..."

    •   Trump Org. Beats Defamation Claim From Domain Name Pitchman | NewYorkLawJournal.com: "... Brooklyn federal Judge Eric Vitaliano said the complaint in Stephens v. Trump Organization, 15-cv-2217, failed in every respect. Vitaliano said, "It is inconceivable that Stephens could, as the silence in his papers emphasizes, plead any facts that would entitle him to co-opt the Trump name" or "that any words used by the Trump defendants to denounce cybersquatting (in all its forms) would be defamatory."..."

    •  John McAfee, creator of antivirus software, sues Intel for right to use his name: "McAfee  joined digital gaming company MGT Capital Investments Inc as chairman and chief executive, and plans to rename the company 'John McAfee Global Technologies Inc.'''--domain-b.com. Intel acquired the McAfee trademark (mcafee.com, @mcafee) in 2010, and utilizes the name in connection with its cybersecurity unit called "Intel Security." See also Intel Sells a Majority Stake of Cybersecurity Unit to TPG | NYTimes.com"Under the terms of the deal, [the spinoff] will borrow money to pay out a roughly $2 billion dividend to Intel, which will retain a 49 percent stake in the business. TPG will pay $1.1 billion in cash for a 51 percent stake. The business, currently called Intel Security, will again adopt the McAfee name when the deal closes, which is expected in the second quarter of 2017."

    • Internet in Russia freer than in US, claims top Kremlin official | rt.com: "Volodin was giving a press conference in the central Russian city of Tambov, where a local reporter asked him to comment on the possibility of introducing a rule that would require social networks to obtain ID from their users “so that people could know who is on the other side of the internet.” The official replied that unlike many countries, Russia has chosen self-regulation on the internet and he saw no need to change this."

    •  Open Internet Advocates Claim Victory in Europe Net Neutrality Fight: "The BEREC guidelines state that internet users “have the right to access and distribute information and content, use and provide applications and services, and use terminal equipment of their choice, irrespective of the end-user’s or provider’s location or the location, origin or destination of the information, content, application or service, via their internet access service.”"--Motherboard.Vice.com.

    •  Facebook’s satellite went up in smoke, but its developing world land grab goes on | Emily Reynolds | Opinion | TheGuardian.com"The whole point of the internet – the joy of it, the endlessly radical possibilities that are part and parcel of it – is that it’s open, that it’s neutral, that its users are free to say, do, and read almost anything they want on it."

    •  How internet pirates became a political force in Iceland | newstatesman.com: "In 2013, five months after its founding, the Pirate Party won three of Iceland’s 63 parliamentary seats – the only one of the world’s thirty or so officially registered Pirate Parties with a presence in a national legislature – and it is expected to gain between 15 and 20 in the elections later this year. It has been quite a rise for an activist movement that initially focused on internet freedom and copyright reform."

    •  Comments close this coming week at ICANN on Proposed Renewal of .TEL Registry Agreement: Close Date 13 Sep 2016 23:59 UTC.

    Tech News:
    1. World's fastest optic undersea cable now links U.S. to Japan and Taiwan: "... in June, the six-member FASTER Consortium began beaming light through the FASTER cable [which] connects the United States and Japan ... we [Google] invested in a cable that links FASTER in Japan on to Taiwan, where our largest data center in Asia ..."--googleblog.com. See also: FASTER Cable System | NEC.com and FASTER | Wikipedia.org.
    2. "Amazon.com Inc. is pursuing video rights to a wide range of sports, including the French Open tennis championship and professional rugby, as the company looks for ways to draw new customers to its online TV service"--Bloomberg.com
    3. Apple's new iPhones: 'The Thrill Is Gone'--if what I have already is good enough why should I upgrade?--See "'Good Enough' theory could be taking hold"--SeekingAlpha.com. See also Samsung out as much as $1 billion for Note 7 recall, will reportedly stop using its own batteries--9to5Google.com.
    4. IoT: A Zion research report indicates the commercial telematics market is set to grow from $20.42 billion in 2015 to $55.14 billion by the end of 2021, at a CAGR of more than 18% between 2016 and 2021.--ConnectedCar-news.com
    5. Google to acquire Apigee | cloudplatform.googleblog.com"The addition of Apigee’s API solutions to Google cloud will accelerate our customers’ move to supporting their businesses with high quality digital interactions."  See also: Google given more time to reply to EU antitrust charge on Android | Reuters.com
    6. Can Uber Make A Profit? "... unclear whether Uber is a sustainable long-term business that justifies its current valuation. Ride services are fungible and thus competition will drive down prices to the point of marginal supply."--SeekingAlpha.com
    7. Tech Startups Face Dwindling Funding | WSJ.com"China’s technology startups were red-hot for years. Today, the catchphrase among some in the industry to describe the funding environment is “deep winter.”"
    8. Tax Avoidance SchemesHow Apple—and the Rest of Silicon Valley—Avoids the Tax Man | WIRED.com"... By selling intellectual property rights to sock-puppet subsidiaries, tech giants shift profits to low-tax nations like Ireland. But that’s just a start. Sublicense the IP to a second Irish unit that books global sales, have entity B pay onerous royalties back to A (wiping out its earnings), then show that A is headquartered in the Caribbean, making its royalty income untaxable in Ireland ..." See also: Brussels calling: tech firms add lobby strength as EU gets tough | Reuters.com.
    Four most popular posts (# of pageviews Sun-Sat) this past week on DomainMondo.com:
    1. News Review [4Sep]: Threats to the Open Internet and ICANN Culpability
    2. ICANN Litigation, Cooperative Engagement, and IRP Status Update
    3. US Senator Cruz Attacks ICANN, Fadi Chehadé, IANA Transition (video)
    4. Senate & House Chairmen's Letter to Attorney General & Commerce Sec.
    4 Other Reading Recommendations:
    1. The High Cost of Honesty in a Sea of Low-Cost BS | CharlesHughSmith.blogspot.com.
    2. Shopping Malls in Crisis"[L]andlords are essentially making the case that Aeropostale is better off with only a fourth of its brick-and-mortar locations, ideally in the best-performing malls where traffic trends haven't been pummeled. The company can then pursue growth through online sales, as well as licensing pacts and wholesale contracts in the U.S. and abroad -- much as Authentic Brands is trying to do with Juicy Couture."--Bloomberg.com
    3. Fundamental Attribution Error, Why Predicting Behavior Is Hard--FarnamStreetBlog.com
    4. A Farewell Guide to Political Journalism | TheAtlantic.com by Ron Fournier: "A reporter’s job isn’t to make friends. It’s ... to hold powerful people accountable. Remember the Balz lesson: Your sources are more likely to respect you if they’re a little afraid of you. Don’t cede power to the powerful."
    -- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

    feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


    DISCLAIMER

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