'The recession has already started': David Rosenberg on the U.S. economy
BNN Bloomberg spoke with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, about growing concern over the state of the global economy. and why he thinks the U.S. recession has already started. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 17, 2019. Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., (domain: gluskinsheff.com) is a Canadian wealth management firm. BNN Bloomberg is a Canadian English language specialty channel owned by Bell Media, broadcasting Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets, headquartered at 299 Queen Street West in Downtown Toronto. [Editor's note and caveat: Rosenberg has been known as a perma-bear.]
Get U.S. dollar exposure to prepare for coming economic pain: David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg thinks the U.S. is already in recession, but doesn't believe investors should flee from the greenback. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 18, 2019.
Tweets by EconguyRosie
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
2019-06-28
G20 June 28-29, Trump and Xi Meeting 'Very, Very Critical' (video)
UPDATE Trump & Xi meeting--US-China Trade Talks Resume--Trump says he will allow sales of US equipment to Huawei where there are no national security issues, for now; US will not impose new tariffs on China, for now:
President Trump Press Conference, June 29, 2019, Osaka, Japan.
Trump and Xi's G-20 meeting is 'very, very critical'
Ric Deverell, Chief Economist and Global Head of Macro Strategy at Macquarie in Sydney, Australia, says, depending on what happens at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi, there could be a "double dip" or a sharp pick up in global growth. CNBC International TV video above published Jun 21, 2019. Macquarie Group Limited (domain: macquarie.com) is an Australian multinational independent investment bank and financial services company.
G20 Links:
President Trump Press Conference, June 29, 2019, Osaka, Japan.
Trump and Xi's G-20 meeting is 'very, very critical'
Ric Deverell, Chief Economist and Global Head of Macro Strategy at Macquarie in Sydney, Australia, says, depending on what happens at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi, there could be a "double dip" or a sharp pick up in global growth. CNBC International TV video above published Jun 21, 2019. Macquarie Group Limited (domain: macquarie.com) is an Australian multinational independent investment bank and financial services company.
G20 Links:
- twitter: @g20org and #G20OsakaSummit and #G20 and @realDonaldTrump
Tweets by NARThis was our most read opinion piece for the week. https://t.co/aGk720eBDP— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) June 23, 2019
Good morning, Asia. This was our most read story over the weekend.https://t.co/f7BXPUaBkf— Nikkei Asian Review (@NAR) June 24, 2019
2019-06-24
Druckenmiller on Macro Analysis of the Market, Trade, and Investing (video)
Stanley Druckenmiller: Macroeconomic Analysis of the Market, Trade and Investing
Interview and Q&A on June 3, 2019, at the Economic Club of New York, with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman & CEO, Duquesne Family Office LLC. Topics covered include current macroeconomic factors and the impact of changes in interest rates, the US-China trade war, and more. Transcript (auto-generated, unedited)(pdf).
Interview and Q&A on June 3, 2019, at the Economic Club of New York, with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman & CEO, Duquesne Family Office LLC. Topics covered include current macroeconomic factors and the impact of changes in interest rates, the US-China trade war, and more. Transcript (auto-generated, unedited)(pdf).
We’re getting ready for tonight’s evening program with iconic investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who some have called the greatest hedge fund manager of his time. Join the conversation using #ECNYDruck or tune in to Facebook for the live broadcast at 6pm EDT. pic.twitter.com/w10adNVz0Y— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
For reference, the editorial is here: https://t.co/bTzJALIQuq #ECNYDruck— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
“We are in the most innovative economic period since the late 1800s.” #ECNYDruck— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
“It’s very clear to me that you need a hurdle rate for investment and that if you don’t have a hurdle rate for investment, bad things happen.” #ECNYDruck— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
On his economic ideology: “When I got in the business it became clear to me that macroeconomic statistics of precocity the economy, they’re really great at telling where you are and where you’ve been. The best economic predictor is the inside of the stock market.” #ECNYDruck— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
“The inside of the stock market right now isn’t saying we are gonna be in a recession but it is saying you better keep your eyes open.” #ECNYDruck— The Economic Club NY (@EconClubNY) June 3, 2019
2019-06-15
Tech Review | Entrepreneurs' Top Tips for Startups Raising Money (video)
1) Entrepreneurs' Top Tips for Startups Raising Money
Top entrepreneurs offer advice on how to raise money and spend it wisely. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Jun 7, 2019.
2) Google and Facebook vs. Journalism & Democracy
Facebook and Google control 60% of the online ad market, and why that's bad for journalism and democracy, according to this CNN Business video published Jun 7, 2019.
3) Investing
US: U.S. Stocks Still Look Better Than Anywhere Else | bloomberg.com--"while American outperformance continues to defy history, the rest of the world remains trapped in a bear market."
• Editor's note: Why Trump Will Win The Trade Wars: US exports make up only 12% of the US economy, of which nearly a third go to Canada and Mexico, with which Trump has already made trade deals (USMCA). In addition, many of the most valuable US exports are 'must-have' items such as Qualcomm chips. In short, Trump is playing with a much stronger hand (and he knows it), than China or Germany, the world's two largest exporters, both of which are heavy net exporters to the U.S., and upon which their economies are more dependent. Trump doesn't need to bluff, 'everyone in the game' knows he is holding the better hand (unless they are delusional or in a state of denial). China may still be trying to adjust to the culture shock of Trump's 'negotiating style' but the 'cold hard truth' is China’s Likely to Lose a Tech Cold War--bloomberg.com.
Germany, the world's second largest exporter, and dominant member of the EU, is actually a more complicated situation than China, with Brexit still an "uncertainty"--see UK Parliament Rejects Move To Block No-Deal Brexit--but if I were advising Germany, I would be worried. Germany will likely have to adjust to a new level playing field with the U.S. in trade, something long overdue, and which Germany has never had to face in the post-World War II era (now going on for almost seventy-five years), during which the U.S. generated big trade deficits with Germany as one way to stabilize and strengthen Europe to counter the Soviet Union. See Germany Struggles to Figure Out How to Get Trump to Back Off--bloomberg.com.
• U.S. Mobility: 38 percent of US respondents say they are mobile with the resources, ability, and inclination to make a move. In fact, 5 percent of respondents say there is a 100 percent chance of their moving. The mobile are most likely to live in cities, though the income and educational background of "the mobile" and "the rooted" are similar.
• Borrowing costs are now lower than at any time since the founding of the US Federal Reserve in 1913 (or in the UK, since the Bank of England was established in 1694).
• Editor's note: Why Trump Will Win The Trade Wars: US exports make up only 12% of the US economy, of which nearly a third go to Canada and Mexico, with which Trump has already made trade deals (USMCA). In addition, many of the most valuable US exports are 'must-have' items such as Qualcomm chips. In short, Trump is playing with a much stronger hand (and he knows it), than China or Germany, the world's two largest exporters, both of which are heavy net exporters to the U.S., and upon which their economies are more dependent. Trump doesn't need to bluff, 'everyone in the game' knows he is holding the better hand (unless they are delusional or in a state of denial). China may still be trying to adjust to the culture shock of Trump's 'negotiating style' but the 'cold hard truth' is China’s Likely to Lose a Tech Cold War--bloomberg.com.
Germany, the world's second largest exporter, and dominant member of the EU, is actually a more complicated situation than China, with Brexit still an "uncertainty"--see UK Parliament Rejects Move To Block No-Deal Brexit--but if I were advising Germany, I would be worried. Germany will likely have to adjust to a new level playing field with the U.S. in trade, something long overdue, and which Germany has never had to face in the post-World War II era (now going on for almost seventy-five years), during which the U.S. generated big trade deficits with Germany as one way to stabilize and strengthen Europe to counter the Soviet Union. See Germany Struggles to Figure Out How to Get Trump to Back Off--bloomberg.com.
"If President Trump has a poker style it is almost certainly loose aggressive. It is the most challenging style to play well and the most difficult to play against. It is very hard to read a loose aggressive player, to know what they might do next. Such players are constantly taking the initiative, dominating the game. They are predictable only in their unpredictability. Sometimes they go down in flames but usually it is the loose aggressive players that win the money. Loose aggressive stands against tight weak. President Carter would probably play tight weak as would [UK Prime Minister] Mrs. May, although it is hard to imagine either at a poker table."--Arthur Goodhart
• U.S. Mobility: 38 percent of US respondents say they are mobile with the resources, ability, and inclination to make a move. In fact, 5 percent of respondents say there is a 100 percent chance of their moving. The mobile are most likely to live in cities, though the income and educational background of "the mobile" and "the rooted" are similar.
• Borrowing costs are now lower than at any time since the founding of the US Federal Reserve in 1913 (or in the UK, since the Bank of England was established in 1694).
EU: Foreign investment into Europe falls for first time in 7 years--CNBC International video interview of Andy Baldwin, EMEIA managing partner at EY, discusses the management consultancy's 2019 European Attractiveness report: "appetite to invest in Europe" has dropped to a seven-year low.
• Financial Stability, Or Lack Thereof, Drives The Eurozone Agenda | SeekingAlpha.com.
• Financial Stability, Or Lack Thereof, Drives The Eurozone Agenda | SeekingAlpha.com.
• IMF to warn Italy's debt poses major risk to euro zone economy. See also: Italy Poised to Launch Euro Parallel Currency | moneymaven.io.
• European banks? "They are burdened with an overbanked market, aging systems, a lack of resources to digitise and re-invent their services, and there are still no signs of any European banks emerging as cross border champions. European banking union is another EU initiative that seems to have drowned in the sea of bureaucracy that sinks everything. Governments still see their duty as protecting national banking champions. There is repeated regulatory failure; Danske Bank in terms of money laundering and the collapse of Spanish and Italian banks doesn’t help. No European banks are expanding, building market share. Instead they are all, and have been, retrenching. If I could think of something positive to say about Europe ... But I really can’t"--Bill Blain Jun 4, 2019.
• European banks? "They are burdened with an overbanked market, aging systems, a lack of resources to digitise and re-invent their services, and there are still no signs of any European banks emerging as cross border champions. European banking union is another EU initiative that seems to have drowned in the sea of bureaucracy that sinks everything. Governments still see their duty as protecting national banking champions. There is repeated regulatory failure; Danske Bank in terms of money laundering and the collapse of Spanish and Italian banks doesn’t help. No European banks are expanding, building market share. Instead they are all, and have been, retrenching. If I could think of something positive to say about Europe ... But I really can’t"--Bill Blain Jun 4, 2019.
Hong Kong: after seven hours of marching, organizers estimated 1,030,000 people took part in the protest opposing the proposed China extradition law.
4) ICYMI Tech News:
January 2019: the US Justice Department unseals Huawei indictments including 23 counts (here and here) pertaining to the alleged theft of intellectual property, obstruction of justice, and fraud related to its alleged evasion of US sanctions against Iran.June 2019: 'Dead Man Walking' Huawei, applies to trademark its “Hongmeng” operating system (OS) in at least nine countries and Europe, deploying a back-up plan in key markets as U.S. sanctions threaten its business model. However, China's industry insiders are less optimistic that Chinese chip makers can quickly meet the challenge of supplying all the needs of Huawei and other domestic technology firms. Prospectuses of Chinese chip companies preparing to list on a new tech-focused stock exchange in China are even more blunt, characterizing China's domestic chip industry as “relatively backward,” lacking in talent, and requiring “a long time to catch up.”
See also:
- Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer: 'Not sure Huawei survives Trump ban.'
- Huawei indefinitely postpones the announcement of a new Windows laptop, originally scheduled for June, 2019, due to ongoing US trade sanctions.
- Google Is Moving More Hardware Production Out of China--Trump’s tariffs push tech giant to boost Taiwan manufacturing, while companies, both foreign and domestic, increasingly seek to pivot production away from China due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to reset the parameters for global trade and manufacturing. Foxconn says it can assemble Apple iPhones outside China.
- Huawei v. United States: why trademark professionals must follow this IP technology dispute.
AT&T: Dish Network Corp is open to merging its satellite television business with AT&T Inc.’s pay TV service, DirecTV, since both Dish and DirecTV are hemorrhaging subscribers as viewers continue to shift to cheaper online streaming services such as Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime video service. Unfortunately, AT&T's problems don't end there as AT&T appears to have no viable plan for its WarnerMedia streaming service a year after the Time Warner merger closed.
Verizon: 7 Reasons To Turn Bearish--upcoming Wi-Fi 6 and Wi-Fi 7 technology may disrupt the wireless mobile industry by making free or low-cost city-wide Wi-Fi a reality.
Amazon is Betting Big On Satellite Internet. See also: Amazon is offering flight booking on its platform in India, and it wants to build a one-stop app to offer customers a wide range of services which will attract users to Amazon Pay in the crowded digital wallet industry.
A $6 Billion Record Fine may be coming next year against Apple--see Spotify's complaint against Apple filed with the European Commission--timetoplayfair.com.
Why Sell Microsoft--new tax law ramifications .. cloud computing has no moat ... Windows 10 has continuing quality and performance issues [Editor's note: most people would be better off to forget about Win10 and just get a Chromebook] ... Microsoft behind in artificial intelligence (AI).
Salesforce: $CRM all-stock deal valued at $15.7B, for data visualization company Tableau (NYSE: DATA).
Instagram, a fashionista favorite, helped unknown labels find an audience but now "big bucks are changing the game" as cash rich luxury goods groups such as LVMH and Kering use increased social media budgets to drown out rivals on platforms once seen as a leveler for brands big and small.
IPO: Pet care company Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY) (domain: chewy.com), closed up 59% at $34.99 after its debut IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, June 14.
A Bad Use of Technology: "Illegal robocalls are not just a drain on individual households' peace of mind, they are also a drain on our economy," FCC Chief Economist Babette Boliek and Chief Technology Officer Eric Burger wrote in a blog post, before the FCC voted unanimously to let carriers block robocalls by default.
Personal Tech: Google’s Login Chief Would Rather You Use Apple’s Sign-In Button Than Keep Using Passwords--‘I honestly do think this technology will be better for the internet.’
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
2019-05-09
China Hacked & Stole, and U.S. Businesses Turned A Blind Eye
China's Hacking & Cybertheft
Current and former US officials and business execs describe hacking and IP theft by China and why they stayed silent because of the profits to be made in trade — Technology theft and other unfair business practices originating from China are costing the American economy more than $57 billion a year. Top government leaders told NPR that federal agencies are years behind where they could have been if Chinese cybertheft had been openly addressed earlier.
DMITRI ALPEROVITCH: I knew pretty much right away that this is something very different. For the first time ever, we were facing a nation state, an intelligence service that was breaking into companies - not governments, not militaries, but private sector organizations.
SULLIVAN: Where was the U.S. government on all of this?
ALPEROVITCH: The U.S. government was nowhere to be seen.
SULLIVAN: Evan Medeiros was on staff at the National Security Council at the time and a top China specialist under President Obama. He says they didn't turn a blind eye. Obama signed an agreement with China to address the hacking. But he says the Obama administration also had other priorities - North Korea, Iran, the economy, climate change."
Program Transcript here. Dmitri Alperovitch is Co-Founder & CTO at CrowdStrike.com; Senior Fellow at Harvard Belfer Center and Atlantic Council.
Tweets by DAlperovitch
Current and former US officials and business execs describe hacking and IP theft by China and why they stayed silent because of the profits to be made in trade — Technology theft and other unfair business practices originating from China are costing the American economy more than $57 billion a year. Top government leaders told NPR that federal agencies are years behind where they could have been if Chinese cybertheft had been openly addressed earlier.
"Hackers from China, often with ties to the government, have been accused of breaking into gas companies, steel companies and chemical companies. Not long ago, Chinese government companies were indicted for stealing the secret chemical makeup of the color white from DuPont. China developed its J-20 fighter plane, a plane similar to Lockheed Martin's F-22 Raptor, shortly after a Chinese national was indicted for stealing technical data from Lockheed Martin, including the plans for the Raptor. Chinese hacking made occasional headlines, but none really grabbed Americans' attention. There was one exception. In 2010, Google went public in announcing that it had been hacked by the Chinese government. Thirty-four other American companies that were also part of the hack stayed silent. Most have kept it a secret to this day.""Dmitri Alperovitch was one of the first to see it. He was working at a security firm in Atlanta during the Google hack. One afternoon, Google called, said they needed backup. Alperovitch is a well-known cyber sleuth. He says when he took a look, he was stunned.
DMITRI ALPEROVITCH: I knew pretty much right away that this is something very different. For the first time ever, we were facing a nation state, an intelligence service that was breaking into companies - not governments, not militaries, but private sector organizations.
SULLIVAN: Where was the U.S. government on all of this?
ALPEROVITCH: The U.S. government was nowhere to be seen.
SULLIVAN: Evan Medeiros was on staff at the National Security Council at the time and a top China specialist under President Obama. He says they didn't turn a blind eye. Obama signed an agreement with China to address the hacking. But he says the Obama administration also had other priorities - North Korea, Iran, the economy, climate change."
Program Transcript here. Dmitri Alperovitch is Co-Founder & CTO at CrowdStrike.com; Senior Fellow at Harvard Belfer Center and Atlantic Council.
Tweets by DAlperovitch
2019-03-28
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: 'I'm not worried about a recession'
Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still "quite strong," and he sees growth of between 1.75 percent to 2 percent in 2019. CNBC International TV video above published Mar 25, 2019.
Domain: chicagofed.org
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still "quite strong," and he sees growth of between 1.75 percent to 2 percent in 2019. CNBC International TV video above published Mar 25, 2019.
Domain: chicagofed.org
Charlie #Evans is speaking now Revisiting Risk Management in Monetary Policy on at the #CSAIC hosted by @csapac. The full text of his speech is available online: https://t.co/vgngyUDeXe pic.twitter.com/xvfVoOk7S3— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 25, 2019
It's #FedFriday: True or false? The lifespan of a $100 bill is about 10 years. Find out if you're right, then find out how many hundreds are in circulation: https://t.co/YvquosO4WR pic.twitter.com/tJuqN0qa84— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 22, 2019
Join us at #PolicySummit 2019 this June in #Cincinnati! Raj Chetty & David Williams @OppInsights will discuss econ mobility & what we might do to help people get ahead, w/ @ClevelandFed & @ChicagoFed, @MinneapolisFed, @philadelphiafed & @stlouisfed. https://t.co/fQNiytgTJM pic.twitter.com/5fJXKBrERy— ClevelandFed (@ClevelandFed) March 22, 2019
Don't miss your chance to hear #federalreserve Chair Powell discuss Renewing the Promise of the Middle Class at the Fed's #CommunityDevelopment Conference on May 9-10, 2019, in Washington, DC. Full agenda now available at #CommDev2019. https://t.co/0RHBSQ2Fh3 pic.twitter.com/HQYg7M08Mw— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 13, 2019
Meet our #K9 officers at our Detroit Branch, Gajo and Vice. As you can see, they take their workouts seriously. (Gajo leaps, while Vice rests up.) Stay tuned for more action! #dogsofthefed pic.twitter.com/sDz4L6Z8n0— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 13, 2019
2019-03-20
Federal Reserve Chairman's Press Conference LIVE Wednesday, March 20
FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, 2:30pm EDT
FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, at 2:30 pm EDT, with the Fed Chair, following FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. Summary: no rate-hikes in 2019, one rate-hike in 2020, and balance sheet normalization ends in September.
See also March 20, 2019 Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans.
Domain: federalreserve.gov
FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, at 2:30 pm EDT, with the Fed Chair, following FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. Summary: no rate-hikes in 2019, one rate-hike in 2020, and balance sheet normalization ends in September.
See also March 20, 2019 Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans.
Domain: federalreserve.gov
 |
| Effective Federal Funds Rate--Above: Jul 1954 - Feb 2019 |
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
2019 FOMC Members:
- Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chairman
- John C. Williams, New York, Vice Chairman
- Michelle W. Bowman, Board of Governors
- Lael Brainard, Board of Governors
- James Bullard, St. Louis
- Richard H. Clarida, Board of Governors
- Charles L. Evans, Chicago
- Esther L. George, Kansas City
- Randal K. Quarles, Board of Governors
- Eric Rosengren, Boston
Alternate Members:
- Patrick Harker, Philadelphia
- Robert S. Kaplan, Dallas
- Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis
- Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland
- Michael Strine, First Vice President, New York
 |
| Fed Chairman Powell at FOMC Press Conference January 30, 2019 |
2019-03-15
Brexit Madness - UK PM Theresa May to Ask EU for Brexit Delay (video)
Time Left Until Brexit, London time: 11:00 P.M., Friday, 12 Apr 2019
Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
UPDATES now at UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.
March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.
March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.
But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes, or 3) UK revokes Article 50. After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
March 19, 2019: EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier: "Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a no-deal scenario" ... UK MPs "voting against no-deal does not prevent it happening." See also France ready to veto any meaningless Brexit delay: Elysee official--reuters.com: "French officials say in private that they are not alone in their stance but that they are more willing than other countries to stick their necks out because Britain will always blame the French for their misfortunes."
March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:
Original post March 15, 2019:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.
Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.
Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty, the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)
It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly."
UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."
More on Brexit:
Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
UPDATES now at UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
- Twitter list A: BrexitUK List; @BrexitCentral; @StandUp4Brexit; @TelePolitics.
- Twitter list B: @commonslibrary; @HoCPress; @HouseofCommons
- Video: parliamentlive.tv/Commons (video).
- The UK is ready for a WTO Brexit (March 21 briefing)
March 21: May dashes to salvage Brexit deal in Brussels (video); Arriving in Brussels on Thursday for an EU summit, Mrs. May did not rule out leaving the European Union without a deal reports news.sky.com which also reports EU leaders agreed to extend the March 29th deadline to Apil 12. The deadline would be extended to May 22 only if UK MPs pass the prime minister's Brexit deal by the end of next week.It’s the political class promising one thing in relation to Brexit & delivering another. Trust in politics is broken... https://t.co/lf4g9AAEtG— Priti Patel MP (@patel4witham) March 25, 2019
See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.
March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.
March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.
But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes, or 3) UK revokes Article 50. After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
 |
| FTSE100 |
 |
| FTSE250 |
France’s EU minister Nathalie Loiseau named her cat ‘Brexit’ because ‘he meows loudly to be let out each morning, but then refuses to go outside when she opens the door.’March 18, 2019: House of Commons Speaker John Bercow told MPs he would not allow PM Theresa May to ask the Commons to vote a third time if the motion hadn't changed. The announcement took the government by surprise--Channel 4 News video.
March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:
Ignore the nay-sayers – here’s why we’re still on course for a clean Brexit on 29th March: "MPs are not fearful of a weak unimaginative Government desperate to push through a failed deal. Parliament does not want to re-join the EU, it does not want a referendum. It cannot ask for an extension to implement the deal if MPs don’t want the deal. And nobody could stomach another drawn-out negotiation going on for potentially years and the imminent prospect of European Elections, manifestos, campaigns and all that comes with them. Once you have eliminated all the alternatives, the conclusion is staring you in the face – the UK will leave on 29th March and take back control"--Christopher Howarth | BrexitCentral.com.Theresa May has been warned by her party's biggest donors that delaying Brexit would be more damaging to British companies than ‘no deal’, which has already been factored in.— #StandUp4Brexit (@StandUp4Brexit) March 17, 2019
The uncertainty caused by a long extension would be ‘debilitating for companies’https://t.co/PIW1eUPNfN
If we agree this deal – we face an even greater humiliation in the second phase. We must now discover some willingness to resist or the diet of capitulation is set to continuehttps://t.co/kXOpRhOdzH— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) March 17, 2019
Original post March 15, 2019:
The UK Government and UK Politicians Have Made A Shambolic Mess of Brexit (and the UK civil service is complicit)Analysis and Opinion by the Editor:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.
Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.
Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty, the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)
It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
Regarding Brexit, the single biggest issue gripping the U.K. is indecision, Citadel (citadel.com) billionaire founder Ken Griffin said. “Until they pick a path, it deters capital investment. Politicians don’t appreciate when they create uncertainty it kills the willingness to invest.”President Trump Meets with the Prime Minister of Ireland
U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly."
UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."
More on Brexit:
- Twitter: BrexitUK List; @BrexitCentral; @StandUp4Brexit
All Con & Lab MPs were elected on manifestos to get Brexit through. The public can't believe that so many are now saying, “We didn't really mean it; we want to stop it; we want to delay it; we want to redefine it in a way that means it is no longer Brexit.” pic.twitter.com/un5yMDEoDQ— John Redwood (@johnredwood) March 14, 2019
2019-03-12
Brexit Breakthrough? UK Nears 'No Deal' Brexit Deadline, March 29, 2019
'Make OR Break' Time for the UK Leaving the EU by March 29--
--Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
UK economy defying expectations amid Brexit and global slowdown
CNBC International TV video above published March 13, 2019: UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond gives an update on the UK economy the day after politicians rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for the second time.
House of Commons LIVE video below, Wednesday, 13 March 2019:
Starts at 11.30am London.
Tuesday 12 March 2019 YouTube.com video and UK House of Commons video:
Starts at 11.30 am London: [Oral questions: Justice (including Topical Questions); Ten Minute Rule Motion: Election Expenses (Authorisation of Free or Discounted Support), Craig Mackinlay MP (South Thanet, Conservative)]; Motion: Debate on a Motion relating to Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018; Adjournment [Future of community hospitals, Fiona Bruce MP (Congleton, Conservative)]. See also Brexit Debate LIVE replay video March 12, 2019.
March 12, 2018: British Pound Sterling LIVE: GBP Sterling starts BOUNCE BACK after MPs reject withdrawal agreement.
Background and more info: UK Brexit Agreement Vote: Now A 'No Deal Brexit' or Renegotiate.
The FTSE 100 Index (Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index), a/k/a FTSE 100, FTSE, or, informally, the "Footsie," is a widely followed benchmark index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with highest market capitalization. The index is often used as a gauge of prosperity for businesses regulated by UK company law.
--Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
- March 14, 2019: the House of Commons approves 412 to 202 (majority: 210) the Government's main motion: the UK will seek an (unspecified) extension of the Article 50 period--this will result in the UK asking the EU to delay the Brexit date of March 29th, which must be agreed to by the EU's other 27 members. Read more in the BrexitCentral feed embedded below.
- March 13, 2019: Motion rejecting 'no deal' Brexit approved 321-278, however the vote has no legal force since March 29, 2019, is the default date pursuant to statute (Article 50), for leaving the European Union with or without a 'deal'.
- March 12, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May's 'deal' with the EU rejected 242 to 391 in the UK House of Commons.
UK economy defying expectations amid Brexit and global slowdown
CNBC International TV video above published March 13, 2019: UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond gives an update on the UK economy the day after politicians rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for the second time.
House of Commons LIVE video below, Wednesday, 13 March 2019:
Starts at 11.30am London.
Tuesday 12 March 2019 YouTube.com video and UK House of Commons video:
Starts at 11.30 am London: [Oral questions: Justice (including Topical Questions); Ten Minute Rule Motion: Election Expenses (Authorisation of Free or Discounted Support), Craig Mackinlay MP (South Thanet, Conservative)]; Motion: Debate on a Motion relating to Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018; Adjournment [Future of community hospitals, Fiona Bruce MP (Congleton, Conservative)]. See also Brexit Debate LIVE replay video March 12, 2019.
 |
| FTSE 100 Index -- INDEXFTSE: UKX March 12, 2019 |
Background and more info: UK Brexit Agreement Vote: Now A 'No Deal Brexit' or Renegotiate.
The United Kingdom (UK) voted in a June 23, 2016, referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process, for better or worse, has now reached its finale. Options include a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a delay (extension), or even another referendum.
 |
| FTSE 100 Index -- INDEXFTSE: UKX |
See also:
Tweets by BrexitCentral
- "Last night’s victory in Brussels was a piece of political theatre, and like all things involving Ms May, it was unconvincing."--Bill Blain 12 March 2019. UK civil service also complicit.
- Attorney General's Opinion
- Theresa May makes Brexit statement in in Strasbourg--Guardian News video.
- Brexit: UK Prime Minister Theresa May arrives in Strasbourg for last-ditch talks with EU on March 11, 2019--bbc.com.
- Conservative MP Robin Walker responded to Labour MP Jeremy Corbyn's urgent question on Brexit, March 11, 2019 video published by BrexitCentral.com.
- EU will demand a higher divorce bill from the U.K. if it asks to delay Brexit--CNBC International video.
- Pressure mounting on both sides of English channel to secure a Brexit deal--CNBC International video.
- Former US ambassador to EU, Anthony Gardner, says Brexit is a mess and a failure of leadership--CNBC International video.
- Provisions in place for a no-deal Brexit: UK Warehousing Association--CNBC Internaitonal video.
Tweets by BrexitCentral
2019-03-11
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Beyond Its Borders (video)
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Around the Region
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
2019-02-22
Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi - Next U.S. Recession, in 2021? (video)
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Editor's note: post originally published under title What Will Cause the Next Recession? Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi (video).
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)