'The recession has already started': David Rosenberg on the U.S. economy
BNN Bloomberg spoke with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, about growing concern over the state of the global economy. and why he thinks the U.S. recession has already started. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 17, 2019. Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., (domain: gluskinsheff.com) is a Canadian wealth management firm. BNN Bloomberg is a Canadian English language specialty channel owned by Bell Media, broadcasting Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets, headquartered at 299 Queen Street West in Downtown Toronto. [Editor's note and caveat: Rosenberg has been known as a perma-bear.]
Get U.S. dollar exposure to prepare for coming economic pain: David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg thinks the U.S. is already in recession, but doesn't believe investors should flee from the greenback. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 18, 2019.
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Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD. Show all posts
2016-02-23
Will the Chinese Yuan Lose 30% of its Value? Investing in China (video)
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| Shanghai Composite Index (source: google.com) |
Above: Real Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies (source: stlouisfed.org)
Cash is King! Except when it isn't. The U.S. Dollar (USD) -- the "least dirty shirt" -- has a 38.5% gain in relation to other major currencies since 2011 (see chart above). The decline in the prices of commodities such as oil (which is priced in USD per barrel on major markets), has to be considered in context of the rise in the USD indexed against other major currencies.
How about the Chinese Yuan? China has a major bad-debt problem: "The debt problem in China has already reached the proportions of the U.S. subprime mortgage debacle." --China's Subprime Crisis Is Here - Bloomberg Gadfly (Feb 16, 2016).
Of Two Minds - The Chart of Doom: When Private Credit Stops Expanding... (Feb 5, 2016): "... the sole prop under the global "recovery" since 2008-09 has been private credit growth in China. From $4 trillion to over $21 trillion in seven years--no wonder bubbles have been inflated globally. Combine this expansion of private credit in China with the expansion of local government and other state-sector debt (state-owned enterprises, SOEs, etc.) and you have the makings of a global bubble machine."
"... From roughly 1989 to 2014--25 years--the "sure bet" in the global economy was to invest in China by moving production to China. This flood of capital into China only gained momentum as the yuan appreciated in value against the USD once Chinese authorities loosened the peg from 8.3 to 6.6 and then all the way down to 6 to the dollar. Every dollar transferred to China and converted to yuan gained as much as 25% over the years of yuan appreciation. Those hefty returns on cash sitting in yuan sparked a veritable tsunami of capital into China. Now that the tide of capital has reversed, nobody wants yuan: not foreign firms, not FX punters and not the Chinese holding massive quantities of depreciating yuan. This is why "housewives" from China are buying homes in Vancouver B.C. for $3 million. That $3 million could fall to $2 million as the yuan devalues to the old peg around 8.3 to the USD ... But that doesn't mean the devaluation of the yuan has to stop at 8.3: just as the dollar's recent strength is simply Stage One of a multi-stage liftoff, the yuan's devaluation to 8 to the USD is only the first stage of a multi-year devaluation."--Of Two Minds -Feb 17, 2016- Why the Chinese Yuan Will Lose 30% of its Value:
Meanwhile here's a video from Barron's--"Eric Chow on Investing in the Year of the Monkey" (Feb 3, 2016)--
Value Partners' hedge fund manager Eric Chow discusses with Barron's Asia Isabella Zhong his outlook for China's economy and why a Hong Kong property developer is one of his favorite picks. (2/3/2016)
Value Partners domain name: valuepartners.com.hk
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