Tech Review (TR 2017-12-30)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) The Big Issues Affecting Tech and Global Economy 2018:
China, U.S., Brexit, EU, and the ECB,
2) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes,
3) ICYMI Tech News.
1) The Big Issues Affecting Tech and Global Economy 2018
a) China: defaults could be a real challenge for Xi Jinping and his one-party system that today claims legitimacy from its record of economic prosperity as a result of its
decades-old "China First" policies (pdf):
But don't expect any changes in Chinese censorship and other policies that favor Chinese companies over foreign competition, require foreign companies to have local Chinese "partners" and mandate the disclosure of proprietary intellectual property so it can be co-opted by the government and Chinese competitors. China, thus far, has
made a mockery (pdf) of WTO rules and
fair free trade, and the EU and prior U.S. administrations did almost nothing about it. At least the
Trump administration has brought it forward as an
issue that
must be dealt with.
b) U.S. 'inside the beltway' navel-gazing: Are you
distracted or consumed by
the endless,
mostly useless Mueller investigation, the
politicization, conflicts of interest, and corruption within the FBI, DOJ, the U.S. intelligence community, and bureaucratic Washington (including "holdovers" from the Obama administration), aided and abetted by a continual stream of
misinformation and #FakeNews from mainstream media? (Whatever happened to checking your "facts" and "sources" or maybe there are no competent journalists and editors left anymore in U.S. media.)
What I can tell you is that
outside the media circus centered in Washington D.C., and its echo chambers in New York and Hollywood,
no one is waiting
"with bated breath" for Hillary to become President in 2020, or
Chuck Schumer to become Senate Majority Leader, and most
voters in
Alabama voted
against (50.1%) or
reluctantly for Doug Jones. For the
long view, the
Brits and
Michael Moore have probably got it right--Trump is headed for re-election in 2020.
In the meantime, Trump will continue to be the
star, director, and producer of his own ultimate
reality TV show "President of the United States of America" via multiple channels including
Twitter, while the U.S. government's heavy machinery is ably run by Trump's Team: Pence (VP and all-around pinch hitter), Kelly (White House), Mnuchin (Treasury), Powell (Federal Reserve), Cohn (economic policy), Tillerson (State Department), Mattis (Defense), McMaster (national security), Ross (Commerce), Lighthizer (Trade),
etc... I think you get the drift. If not, read and watch this tweet from Thursday (Dec 28):
My recommendation: ignore the noise and misinformation, the tax reform bill and repatriation of billions of dollars now offshore should be a
boost for the U.S. economy and tech industry in 2018.
c) Brexit, EU, and the ECB (European Central Bank):
It's all a mess, and
most of it will
still be a mess a year from now--the
fundamental flaws in the euro currency (pdf) and ECB policy (interest rates too low for too long), the
dysfunctional EU (and I'll just leave it at that for now), and the messy divorce called
Brexit (divorces do tend to be messy, and expensive).
Where the media gets it so wrong: the
EU, specifically,
Germany, has the
most to lose,
not the UK. Theresa May's objective should be to cut the best deal she can and get out quick, rather than be dragged down by maintaining ties to EU institutions and rules which the UK cannot control. Trump is ready right now to do a free trade deal with the UK, possibly including Canada and Norway, after
Trump kills NAFTA outright, or essentially by renegotiating its terms.
Goldman Sachs denies moving operations from London to Dublin | CBSnews.com Dec 27, 2017: "As part of our Brexit planning we are considering options related to elements of fund administration within the EU," she said, emphasizing that changes to headcount would be small. The Financial Times reported earlier on Wednesday that Goldman would move its European asset management business, with about 20 employees, to Dublin.
Whatever the outcome, the
hoped for windfall from the City of London financial centre to Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg, Dublin, or elsewhere within the EU, will be
disappointing, to say the least.
2) Investing
The Week: U.S. Markets ended the week slightly down as investors closed their books for the year, and what a year it was--
U.S. stocks mount milestone-shattering run in 2017: S&P 500 index gained 19.4 percent while Dow rose 25.1 percent | richmond.com.
Investing Notes:
- 2017 Reviewed: "... it is important to understand just how dramatically US equity markets have changed this year. Correlations for one key group – Technology – have declined by the same amount as during the bursting of the dot com bubble. Except unlike in 2000, markets have remained in rally mode ... This notable shift augurs well for 2018, as capital markets are finally functioning as they should."--DataTrekResearch.com
Two Investing Notes To Remember for 2018:
- Howard Marks: "There are old investors, and there are bold investors, but there are no old bold investors."
3) ICYMI Tech News:
From the Reuters.com feed:
Wishing You a Happy New Year and Prosperous 2018!
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
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