Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
Showing posts with label debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label debt. Show all posts
2019-03-11
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Beyond Its Borders (video)
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Around the Region
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
2019-02-22
Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi - Next U.S. Recession, in 2021? (video)
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Editor's note: post originally published under title What Will Cause the Next Recession? Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi (video).
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
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Follow @DomainMondo
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2018-11-28
Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is In Jeopardy by George Magnus (video)
Magnus On China: You Can't Use Your Spreadsheets Anymore
George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS and author of the recently published “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy,” discusses the panoply of political and economic risks arrayed against China and its leader Xi Jinping: Ballooning debt, political instability, a demographic time-bomb, and the ever-looming threat of declining growth and a weakening currency. Filmed on September 27th, 2018 in London, Real Vision video above published Oct 3, 2018.
Deleveraging China will be a 'tricky challenge' for Xi Jinping
BNN Bloomberg video published Nov 14, 2018: George Magnus, author of "Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy," tells BNN Bloomberg Xi Jinping will be challenged deleveraging China while simultaneously maintaining the country's pace of growth.
George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS and author of the recently published “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy,” discusses the panoply of political and economic risks arrayed against China and its leader Xi Jinping: Ballooning debt, political instability, a demographic time-bomb, and the ever-looming threat of declining growth and a weakening currency. Filmed on September 27th, 2018 in London, Real Vision video above published Oct 3, 2018.
Deleveraging China will be a 'tricky challenge' for Xi Jinping
BNN Bloomberg video published Nov 14, 2018: George Magnus, author of "Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy," tells BNN Bloomberg Xi Jinping will be challenged deleveraging China while simultaneously maintaining the country's pace of growth.
Additional videos:
Author's domain: GeorgeMagnus.com excerpt below.Xi’s bridge too far: "It looks like the world’s longest bridge will become a white elephant. The case for Xi’s bridge doesn’t add up. Before too long, Hong Kong will be just another large Chinese city"--George Magnus.See also George Magnus talks debt, trade and the direction of China’s economy | ChinaEconomicReview.com
Tweets by georgemagnus1In his latest book, Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy, veteran economist and commentator George Magnus examines the structural weaknesses in China's economy and argues how a failure to reform could stunt its long-term aspirations.https://t.co/1QJxN8v9bp— ChinaEconomicReview (@chinaeconreview) November 23, 2018
2018-10-18
Interview with Fintech Startup WiseAlpha CEO Rezaah Ahmad (video)
Tech Talk: interview with Rezaah Ahmad, WiseAlpha
Rezaah Ahmad, CEO, WiseAlpha, a fixed income platform giving everyday investors and savers access to corporate bonds, talks about disrupting the lending market and why the corporate debt market is ripe for digital innovation. TheBanker.com video above published Oct 8, 2018.
Domain: WiseAlpha.com
Categories: Credit, Financial Services, FinTech
Headquarters: London, England, UK
Founded: Mar 1, 2014
Founder: Rezaah Ahmad
Last Funding Type: Equity Crowdfunding
WiseAlpha is an online investment platform offering its members access via Notes to senior secured loan investments. replacing the substantial costs and complexity of investing in specialist credit funds with a simpler and more cost effective way to invest. Until now, the corporate loan market has remained largely untransformed by technological innovation but WiseAlpha is now making this asset class accessible to a wider investment audience. In order to gain access to this asset class, individual investors usually had to use brokers and/or invest in specialist debt funds which often charged substantial upfront fees and ongoing management and performance fees.
Tweets by WiseAlphaTeam
Rezaah Ahmad, CEO, WiseAlpha, a fixed income platform giving everyday investors and savers access to corporate bonds, talks about disrupting the lending market and why the corporate debt market is ripe for digital innovation. TheBanker.com video above published Oct 8, 2018.
Domain: WiseAlpha.com
Categories: Credit, Financial Services, FinTech
Headquarters: London, England, UK
Founded: Mar 1, 2014
Founder: Rezaah Ahmad
Last Funding Type: Equity Crowdfunding
WiseAlpha is an online investment platform offering its members access via Notes to senior secured loan investments. replacing the substantial costs and complexity of investing in specialist credit funds with a simpler and more cost effective way to invest. Until now, the corporate loan market has remained largely untransformed by technological innovation but WiseAlpha is now making this asset class accessible to a wider investment audience. In order to gain access to this asset class, individual investors usually had to use brokers and/or invest in specialist debt funds which often charged substantial upfront fees and ongoing management and performance fees.
Tweets by WiseAlphaTeam
2018-08-20
Three Causes of China's Stock Market Plunge: Trade, Debt, Uncertainty
Three Causes of China's Stock Market Plunge
Emma Dunkley, the FT.com's Asia markets correspondent, blames the threat of a trade war, economic uncertainty and debt levels for the steep fall in Chinese equities this year. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Aug 8, 2018.
See also:
Tech Review: 1) Collapsing Chinese Tech Stocks, 2) Tesla Turbulence | DomainMondo.com
Emma Dunkley, the FT.com's Asia markets correspondent, blames the threat of a trade war, economic uncertainty and debt levels for the steep fall in Chinese equities this year. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Aug 8, 2018.
See also:
Tech Review: 1) Collapsing Chinese Tech Stocks, 2) Tesla Turbulence | DomainMondo.com
Tweets by chinaeconreviewIn early July the Shenzhen Component Index, dominated by technology stocks fell to its lowest point since 2014. However, focus has shifted past the trade war, as a number of big Chinese tech companies see their share prices plummet for other reasons.https://t.co/cXUWJzCjMv— ChinaEconomicReview (@chinaeconreview) August 10, 2018
2018-05-30
MacroView | Forget Brexit, Fear of Italy Doing a EURO Exit Shakes Markets
UPDATE: Wall Street Climbs as Worries Over Italy's Politics Ease | NYTimes.com: May 30, 2018 12:32pm EDT.
Original post:
If you're in the U.S. and got back from your Memorial Day weekend late, you may be wondering, what happened to cause markets to tumble Tuesday? Here's a recap:
Italian president rejects nomination of Eurosceptic minister
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published May 27, 2018: Leaders of Italy's leading populist parties have dropped their bid to form a government after President Sergio Mattarella rejected their nomination of a Eurosceptic finance minister.
Dow Tumbles Nearly 400 Points; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Also Decline | TheStreet.com May 29, 2018: "Stocks fall sharply Tuesday as a political crisis in Italy rocks markets across the globe." Also: Investors are dumping Italian government debt | ft.com.
Italian bond yields are rising rapidly because the country is laden with debt and in political turmoil. TheStreet.com's Tracy Byrnes enlisted London Bureau Chief Martin Baccardax to help explain how it will affect the rest of us.
Who is was Carlo Cottarelli?
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published May 28, 2018: As newly appointed prime minister, the former IMF official will focus on improving Italy's finances ahead of new elections, but many think he will immediately face a vote of "no confidence" and some now think new elections may be scheduled as early as July, 2018--major parties in Italy say Cottarelli’s mission is 'all but dead' and parliament will soon be dissolved --Italy may return to polls in July, sources say, amid market rout | Reuters.com.
Italy's new election could become a referendum on the European Union and the euro--President readies Italy for snap polls to be fought on EU, euro | Reuters.com--the far-right League and anti-establishment 5-Star Movement may unite for an upcoming new election in Italy. League leader Matteo Salvini said on Monday, May 28: “Today Italy is not free; it is occupied financially by Germans, French and eurocrats ... if there’s not the OK of Berlin, Paris or Brussels, a government cannot be formed in Italy. It’s madness, and I ask the Italian people to stay close to us because I want to bring democracy back to this country.” When? New elections in Italy 'by start of 2019' at the latest or as early as autumn: Italy's president named a former IMF economist Carlo Cottarelli as caretaker prime minister to lead the country into new elections, possibly as soon as the autumn in the eurozone's third largest economy. Mr Cottarelli, 64, was director of the IMF's fiscal affairs department from 2008 to 2013 and became known as "Mr Scissors" for making cuts to public spending in Italy--rte.ie.
Most Exposed to Italy’s Sovereign Debt? (Other than Italian Banks): BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, with €16 billion of Italian sovereign debt holdings, Dexia (French-Belgian) holds €15 billion of Italian debt, and Banco Sabadell has €10.5 billion invested in Italian bonds (40% of its entire fixed asset portfolio, worth €26.3 billion, and 110% of its tier-1 capital)--WolfStreet.com.
ECB & Eurozone: Banque de France to pursue efforts to spur consolidation of Europe's financial sector: Villeroy | Reuters.com--Editor's note: if consolidation is "encouraged," Europe may end up with a few (5 or 6?) large banks (mostly German or French) controlling the EU/eurozone financial sector. The five largest commercial banks in the U.S. had 44 percent of total assets in the banking system as of 2014 (most likely even more now). Unlike the U.S., however, Europe still has a lot of large "troubled" banks with underlying financial problems--consolidation now could exacerbate a situation the ECB has failed to remediate.
Original post:
If you're in the U.S. and got back from your Memorial Day weekend late, you may be wondering, what happened to cause markets to tumble Tuesday? Here's a recap:
Italian president rejects nomination of Eurosceptic minister
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published May 27, 2018: Leaders of Italy's leading populist parties have dropped their bid to form a government after President Sergio Mattarella rejected their nomination of a Eurosceptic finance minister.
Dow Tumbles Nearly 400 Points; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Also Decline | TheStreet.com May 29, 2018: "Stocks fall sharply Tuesday as a political crisis in Italy rocks markets across the globe." Also: Investors are dumping Italian government debt | ft.com.
Italian bond yields are rising rapidly because the country is laden with debt and in political turmoil. TheStreet.com's Tracy Byrnes enlisted London Bureau Chief Martin Baccardax to help explain how it will affect the rest of us.
 |
| Germany's DAX |
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published May 28, 2018: As newly appointed prime minister, the former IMF official will focus on improving Italy's finances ahead of new elections, but many think he will immediately face a vote of "no confidence" and some now think new elections may be scheduled as early as July, 2018--major parties in Italy say Cottarelli’s mission is 'all but dead' and parliament will soon be dissolved --Italy may return to polls in July, sources say, amid market rout | Reuters.com.
The MacroView:BREAKING: Dow falls more than 2%, or more than 500 points, to session low as worries about Italy and Spain ripple through the markets https://t.co/Bpl38EW7eE pic.twitter.com/08gHOdsm5q— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) May 29, 2018
Italy's new election could become a referendum on the European Union and the euro--President readies Italy for snap polls to be fought on EU, euro | Reuters.com--the far-right League and anti-establishment 5-Star Movement may unite for an upcoming new election in Italy. League leader Matteo Salvini said on Monday, May 28: “Today Italy is not free; it is occupied financially by Germans, French and eurocrats ... if there’s not the OK of Berlin, Paris or Brussels, a government cannot be formed in Italy. It’s madness, and I ask the Italian people to stay close to us because I want to bring democracy back to this country.” When? New elections in Italy 'by start of 2019' at the latest or as early as autumn: Italy's president named a former IMF economist Carlo Cottarelli as caretaker prime minister to lead the country into new elections, possibly as soon as the autumn in the eurozone's third largest economy. Mr Cottarelli, 64, was director of the IMF's fiscal affairs department from 2008 to 2013 and became known as "Mr Scissors" for making cuts to public spending in Italy--rte.ie.
Most Exposed to Italy’s Sovereign Debt? (Other than Italian Banks): BNP Paribas, France’s largest bank, with €16 billion of Italian sovereign debt holdings, Dexia (French-Belgian) holds €15 billion of Italian debt, and Banco Sabadell has €10.5 billion invested in Italian bonds (40% of its entire fixed asset portfolio, worth €26.3 billion, and 110% of its tier-1 capital)--WolfStreet.com.
ECB & Eurozone: Banque de France to pursue efforts to spur consolidation of Europe's financial sector: Villeroy | Reuters.com--Editor's note: if consolidation is "encouraged," Europe may end up with a few (5 or 6?) large banks (mostly German or French) controlling the EU/eurozone financial sector. The five largest commercial banks in the U.S. had 44 percent of total assets in the banking system as of 2014 (most likely even more now). Unlike the U.S., however, Europe still has a lot of large "troubled" banks with underlying financial problems--consolidation now could exacerbate a situation the ECB has failed to remediate.
2017-08-04
Tech Giants Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google: Above The Law? (video)
Tech Giants: Above the Law
Video above published Aug 3, 2017 by L2inc.com: NYU Stern adjunct professor Scott Galloway on the Four Horsemen--Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google--which pay far less than the average US corporate tax rate. According to Galloway, for economies to thrive, companies need to hand over a quarter of their profits.
The Losers, says Galloway, are future generations, who will have to pay off the debt racked up by politicians unwilling to tax the most profitable companies in the world.
Sources:
(0:20) S&P Global Market Intelligence.
(1:21) “Google’s EU Fine Is a Small Price to Pay for Scale,” The Wall Street Journal, June 2017. http://on.wsj.com/2wakRWL
(1:48) “Case No COMP/M.7217 - Facebook/ WhatsApp,” Office for Publications of the European Union, March 2014. http://bit.ly/2cxoGyC
(2:08) “E.U. Fines Facebook $122 Million Over Disclosures in WhatsApp Deal,” The New York Times, May 2017. http://nyti.ms/2pZh1ex
(2:33) “This Analysis Shows How Viral Fake Election News Stories Outperformed Real News On Facebook,” Buzzfeed, November 2016. http://bzfd.it/2vm5htp
Transcript (via YouTube.com):
0:02 A loser, future generations, who will have to pay off the debt racked up by
0:05 politicians unwilling to tax the most profitable companies in the world. For
0:10 economies to thrive, companies need to hand over about a quarter of their
0:14 profits. The S&P average tax rate is in fact 27 percent but who pays less than
0:20 this? Who plays by different rules? You guessed it, the most successful companies
0:24 in the world: Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google. The Four Horsemen are treated
0:29 differently, they play by a different set of rules, because our leaders, supported
0:34 by our society, has decided to engage in a gross idolatry of tech innovators that
0:39 is just plain gross. Think about it. The terrorists in San Bernardino last year--
0:44 if they were using a Blackberry and if Blackberry or RIM had refused to provide
0:49 access to the FBI we would have shut down the Canadian border but not the
0:53 iPhone. It's sacred. We have our Jesus Christ, we have our cross, and we decided
0:58 that our iPhone is more sacred than our home or our computers or our persons
1:02 that can be searched ... politicians in the US are worshipping
1:07 at the altar of these tech geniuses. Margrethe Vestager and the EU is
1:11 slapping Google with a 2.7 billion dollar fine over comparative shopping
1:16 search results but with 18 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its books
1:20 at the end of March, Google's not going to feel much pain in fact the penalty
1:24 amounts to one month of parent companies Alphabet's operating cash flows The
1:29 Four Horsemen are taking a calculated risk, they've done the math and realize the
1:32 best decision for shareholder value is to wave their finger in the face of
1:36 governments and lie. When Facebook sought approval of the acquisition of Whatsapp
1:40 they assured EU regulators that it would be impossible for the two entities
1:45 to share data in the short term. This calmed regulators concerns over privacy
1:49 and the acquisition was approved Well spoiler alert, Facebook figured it out
1:54 and they figured it out fast. So ... the EU fined Facebook 122 million
1:59 dollars. Facebook felt Whatsapp was worth 19 billion dollars so a point six
2:04 percent premium for increasing the likelihood the acquisition goes through
2:08 is chump change This is the equivalent of getting a $10 parking ticket
2:12 for a meter that charges $100 every 15 minutes It's just better to break the
2:17 law What is the algebra for an effective
2:19 penalty? The fine times the probability of getting caught equals serious shit
2:24 It's time for regulators to grow a pair and begin ... serious penalties
2:29 against the Four Horsemen. For example when 80% of our news on Google and Facebook the
2:34 week before the election is fake and Google and Facebook have not put in place the
2:38 processes and technology the way other media firms seem to have figured
2:43 out, what should the penalty for that be? Facebook's defense we're not a media
2:47 company but a platform. What if the week before the election McDonald's was
2:52 serving beef and we discovered that 80% of that beef was fake and we came down
2:57 with encephalitis that clouded our judgment and we began making terrible
3:01 decisions. Would an appropriate defense be we're not a fast-food restaurant we're a
3:06 fast-food platform? We'll see you next week
Video above published Aug 3, 2017 by L2inc.com: NYU Stern adjunct professor Scott Galloway on the Four Horsemen--Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google--which pay far less than the average US corporate tax rate. According to Galloway, for economies to thrive, companies need to hand over a quarter of their profits.
The Losers, says Galloway, are future generations, who will have to pay off the debt racked up by politicians unwilling to tax the most profitable companies in the world.
 |
| Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence |
(0:20) S&P Global Market Intelligence.
(1:21) “Google’s EU Fine Is a Small Price to Pay for Scale,” The Wall Street Journal, June 2017. http://on.wsj.com/2wakRWL
(1:48) “Case No COMP/M.7217 - Facebook/ WhatsApp,” Office for Publications of the European Union, March 2014. http://bit.ly/2cxoGyC
(2:08) “E.U. Fines Facebook $122 Million Over Disclosures in WhatsApp Deal,” The New York Times, May 2017. http://nyti.ms/2pZh1ex
(2:33) “This Analysis Shows How Viral Fake Election News Stories Outperformed Real News On Facebook,” Buzzfeed, November 2016. http://bzfd.it/2vm5htp
Transcript (via YouTube.com):
0:02 A loser, future generations, who will have to pay off the debt racked up by
0:05 politicians unwilling to tax the most profitable companies in the world. For
0:10 economies to thrive, companies need to hand over about a quarter of their
0:14 profits. The S&P average tax rate is in fact 27 percent but who pays less than
0:20 this? Who plays by different rules? You guessed it, the most successful companies
0:24 in the world: Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google. The Four Horsemen are treated
0:29 differently, they play by a different set of rules, because our leaders, supported
0:34 by our society, has decided to engage in a gross idolatry of tech innovators that
0:39 is just plain gross. Think about it. The terrorists in San Bernardino last year--
0:44 if they were using a Blackberry and if Blackberry or RIM had refused to provide
0:49 access to the FBI we would have shut down the Canadian border but not the
0:53 iPhone. It's sacred. We have our Jesus Christ, we have our cross, and we decided
0:58 that our iPhone is more sacred than our home or our computers or our persons
1:02 that can be searched ... politicians in the US are worshipping
1:07 at the altar of these tech geniuses. Margrethe Vestager and the EU is
1:11 slapping Google with a 2.7 billion dollar fine over comparative shopping
1:16 search results but with 18 billion in cash and cash equivalents on its books
1:20 at the end of March, Google's not going to feel much pain in fact the penalty
1:24 amounts to one month of parent companies Alphabet's operating cash flows The
1:29 Four Horsemen are taking a calculated risk, they've done the math and realize the
1:32 best decision for shareholder value is to wave their finger in the face of
1:36 governments and lie. When Facebook sought approval of the acquisition of Whatsapp
1:40 they assured EU regulators that it would be impossible for the two entities
1:45 to share data in the short term. This calmed regulators concerns over privacy
1:49 and the acquisition was approved Well spoiler alert, Facebook figured it out
1:54 and they figured it out fast. So ... the EU fined Facebook 122 million
1:59 dollars. Facebook felt Whatsapp was worth 19 billion dollars so a point six
2:04 percent premium for increasing the likelihood the acquisition goes through
2:08 is chump change This is the equivalent of getting a $10 parking ticket
2:12 for a meter that charges $100 every 15 minutes It's just better to break the
2:17 law What is the algebra for an effective
2:19 penalty? The fine times the probability of getting caught equals serious shit
2:24 It's time for regulators to grow a pair and begin ... serious penalties
2:29 against the Four Horsemen. For example when 80% of our news on Google and Facebook the
2:34 week before the election is fake and Google and Facebook have not put in place the
2:38 processes and technology the way other media firms seem to have figured
2:43 out, what should the penalty for that be? Facebook's defense we're not a media
2:47 company but a platform. What if the week before the election McDonald's was
2:52 serving beef and we discovered that 80% of that beef was fake and we came down
2:57 with encephalitis that clouded our judgment and we began making terrible
3:01 decisions. Would an appropriate defense be we're not a fast-food restaurant we're a
3:06 fast-food platform? We'll see you next week
2016-10-31
MacroView: World Markets, Global Economy, Central Banks, Trick or Treat?
MacroView Feature • Just in time for Halloween: World Markets, Global Economy, Central Banks, Trick or Treat?
Halloween in the global economy:
The FT.com's Katie Martin and Anthony Doyle of M&G (domain: mandg.com) discuss current fears in the fixed income market, including negative yields, inflation growth and emerging markets debt. Published October 28, 2016
• China Gets Desperate About Debt: "China doesn’t need a new debt-for-equity swap program. It needs to cut credit growth."--Bloomberg.com
Why China is worried about its lending:
There is growing concern in Beijing about China’s development lending in risky countries. FT.com's James Kynge explains. Published October 26, 2016. See also Xi Jinping Is China’s ‘Core’ Leader: Here’s What It Means | NYTimes.com.
• China’s Crown Probe Seen as Warning Shot to Foreign Firms: "... some business consultants in general ... [are] advising foreign executives to steer clear of mainland China for now."--WSJ.com
• A $1 Trillion Industry Is Finally Going Digital: "The $1 trillion global business of shipping goods and raw materials by rail, ship, or plane has lagged most of the modern economy in both transparency and speed, largely skipping the digital overhaul most other industries have undergone. Now a growing group of well-funded startups is pushing to change that."--technologyreview.com
• Why the Jobs Aren’t Coming Back: A plant in Michigan had been around for years. It had employed 600 people on two shifts. Then, the Chinese began to undercut the pricing, and the plant was no longer profitable and closed. Two years later, it reopened as a fully automated plant and regained the business because it could now manufacture cheaper than the Chinese--"This new plant is fully automated and runs 24/7/365 with just 14 people."--WolfStreet.com
• Things I Don't Care About And You Shouldn't Either: "One of the biggest challenges for investors is filtering out bad, useless or even costly 'information.'"--SeekingAlpha.com
• Faulty Wall Street Assumptions: "Complex markets require complex solutions." To me, this is one of the most damaging myths out there for most investors. The simpler, the better ... There are no extra points for degree of difficulty.--aWealthOfCommonSense.com
• The New Corporate Power Brokers: Passive Investors: "Index-fund managers such as Vanguard often cast deciding shareholder votes on issues such as mergers and leadership changes."--WSJ.com
• Bubble Mentality Collapses in San Francisco Office Market: "This is how office markets turn. Activity plunges as demand suddenly fizzles, while new supply floods the market. Exuberance evaporates. Suddenly companies and landlords go into a standoff, and not much happens until rents come down. But once rents start coming down, companies are holding out for even more concessions and lower rents. Rather than bidding wars, tough negotiations set in, now that vacancies are rising for everyone to see. And the whole bubble mentality collapses into something resembling rational and focused business decision making."--WolfStreet.com
• Financial Ideas vs Marketing Ideas: “There’s one good financial idea every decade or so, and 5 to 10 marketing ideas a week.”--Eugene Fama as quoted in The Art of Doing Nothing--aWealthOfCommonSense.com [Clue: ICANN's new gTLDs are just a "marketing idea"--no real innovation nor financial ideas are involved.]
• Gundlach Says ‘Look Out’ for Exploding U.S. Deficits | Bloomberg.com Oct 25, 2016: "Bond yields bottomed and prices peaked in July, Jeffrey Gundlach said. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen wants a “high pressure economy” with inflation above 2 percent and the unemployment rate below 5 percent, he said." Gundlach still believes Donald Trump will win:“Trump would -- and will when he wins -- ramp up the deficit,” Gundlach said." See also Gundlach: Why the “Rates Will Never Rise” Argument Doesn’t Hold Up | WealthManagement.com: “In July, people came on TV and I actually heard the phrase, ‘rates can never rise,’” he said. “One thing I’ve learned is that in the investment business when you hear the word ‘never,’ it’s about to happen.”
• Q3 2016 financial results coverage this coming week on DomainMondo.com:
- Alibaba Group $BABA Nov 2 at 7:30 am ET
- Facebook $FB Nov 2 at 5:00 pm ET
- GoDaddy $GDDY Nov 2 at 5:00 pm ET
• A Look Back to August 31, 1999: Whatever Happened to Globalization? | Fast Company | Business + Innovation | fastcompany.com: "Overcapacity plagues every industry — from automobiles to computer chips to beer. Quite simply, we are producing more stuff than people can consume. So it's harder to differentiate yourself. It's harder to charge premium prices. And it's harder to innovate — because product improvements get copied at light speed. Channel issues pose an even bigger problem. History teaches us that no old channel of distribution ever adapts quickly enough to the emergence of a new channel. And with the rise of the Web, new channels of distribution — along with entirely new business models — are being created faster than ever before. Traditional assumptions about strategy, pricing, and selling are under fierce attack. The Web threatens to turn every industry upside down and inside out."--Martin Sorrell
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
2016-02-23
Will the Chinese Yuan Lose 30% of its Value? Investing in China (video)
 |
| Shanghai Composite Index (source: google.com) |
Above: Real Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies (source: stlouisfed.org)
Cash is King! Except when it isn't. The U.S. Dollar (USD) -- the "least dirty shirt" -- has a 38.5% gain in relation to other major currencies since 2011 (see chart above). The decline in the prices of commodities such as oil (which is priced in USD per barrel on major markets), has to be considered in context of the rise in the USD indexed against other major currencies.
How about the Chinese Yuan? China has a major bad-debt problem: "The debt problem in China has already reached the proportions of the U.S. subprime mortgage debacle." --China's Subprime Crisis Is Here - Bloomberg Gadfly (Feb 16, 2016).
Of Two Minds - The Chart of Doom: When Private Credit Stops Expanding... (Feb 5, 2016): "... the sole prop under the global "recovery" since 2008-09 has been private credit growth in China. From $4 trillion to over $21 trillion in seven years--no wonder bubbles have been inflated globally. Combine this expansion of private credit in China with the expansion of local government and other state-sector debt (state-owned enterprises, SOEs, etc.) and you have the makings of a global bubble machine."
"... From roughly 1989 to 2014--25 years--the "sure bet" in the global economy was to invest in China by moving production to China. This flood of capital into China only gained momentum as the yuan appreciated in value against the USD once Chinese authorities loosened the peg from 8.3 to 6.6 and then all the way down to 6 to the dollar. Every dollar transferred to China and converted to yuan gained as much as 25% over the years of yuan appreciation. Those hefty returns on cash sitting in yuan sparked a veritable tsunami of capital into China. Now that the tide of capital has reversed, nobody wants yuan: not foreign firms, not FX punters and not the Chinese holding massive quantities of depreciating yuan. This is why "housewives" from China are buying homes in Vancouver B.C. for $3 million. That $3 million could fall to $2 million as the yuan devalues to the old peg around 8.3 to the USD ... But that doesn't mean the devaluation of the yuan has to stop at 8.3: just as the dollar's recent strength is simply Stage One of a multi-stage liftoff, the yuan's devaluation to 8 to the USD is only the first stage of a multi-year devaluation."--Of Two Minds -Feb 17, 2016- Why the Chinese Yuan Will Lose 30% of its Value:
Meanwhile here's a video from Barron's--"Eric Chow on Investing in the Year of the Monkey" (Feb 3, 2016)--
Value Partners' hedge fund manager Eric Chow discusses with Barron's Asia Isabella Zhong his outlook for China's economy and why a Hong Kong property developer is one of his favorite picks. (2/3/2016)
Value Partners domain name: valuepartners.com.hk
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