Smartphone sales are declining, and the pace of innovation is slowing. Manufacturers are scrambling to find new ways to conjure up excitement. Bloomberg QuickTake explains what might be the future of smartphones. Bloomberg.com video above published Jun 19, 2019.
See also: WSJ:Jony Ive Became 'Dispirited' After Apple Watch and Sometimes Failed to Show Up to Meetings--Report: Jony Ive was dispirited by Tim Cook's lack of interest in the product development process and frustrated inside a more operations-focused company--macrumors.com.
Tech Review (TR 2019-06-15)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1)Entrepreneurs' Top Tips for Startups Raising Money, 2)Google and Facebook vs. Journalism & Democracy,3)Investing: The Week & Investor Notes: Why Trump Will Win The Trade Wars,4)ICYMI Tech News:Huawei, AT&T, Verizon, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Salesforce,and more. 1)Entrepreneurs' Top Tips for Startups Raising Money
Top entrepreneurs offer advice on how to raise money and spend it wisely. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Jun 7, 2019.
2) Google and Facebook vs. Journalism & Democracy
Facebook and Google control 60% of the online ad market, and why that's bad for journalism and democracy, according to this CNN Business video published Jun 7, 2019.
3)Investing
The Week: NASDAQ Composite+0.7% | S&P 500 Index+0.5% | DJIA+0.4%*The major indexes are still showing strong gains for June — the Dow is up 5.1% and the S&P 500 is up 4.9%.
• Editor's note: Why Trump Will Win The Trade Wars: US exports make up only 12% of theUS economy, of which nearly a thirdgo to Canada and Mexico, with which Trump has already made trade deals (USMCA). In addition, many of the most valuable US exports are 'must-have' items such as Qualcomm chips. In short, Trump is playing with a much stronger hand (and he knows it), than China or Germany, the world's two largest exporters, both ofwhich are heavy net exporters to the U.S., and upon which their economies are more dependent.Trump doesn't need to bluff, 'everyone in the game' knows he is holding the better hand (unless they are delusional or in a state of denial). China may still be trying to adjust to the culture shock of Trump's 'negotiating style' but the 'cold hard truth' is China’s Likely to Lose a Tech Cold War--bloomberg.com. Germany, the world's second largest exporter, and dominant member of the EU, is actually a more complicated situation than China, with Brexit still an "uncertainty"--see UK Parliament Rejects Move To Block No-Deal Brexit--but if I were advising Germany, I would be worried. Germany will likely have to adjust to a new level playing field with the U.S. in trade, something long overdue, and which Germany has never had to face in the post-World War II era (now going on for almost seventy-five years), during which the U.S. generated big trade deficits with Germany as one way to stabilize and strengthen Europe to counter the Soviet Union. See Germany Struggles to Figure Out How to Get Trump to Back Off--bloomberg.com.
"If President Trump has a poker style it is almost certainly loose aggressive. It is the most challenging style to play well and the most difficult to play against. It is very hard to read a loose aggressive player, to know what they might do next. Such players are constantly taking the initiative, dominating the game. They are predictable only in their unpredictability. Sometimes they go down in flames but usually it is the loose aggressive players that win the money. Loose aggressive stands against tight weak. President Carter would probably play tight weak as would [UK Prime Minister] Mrs. May, although it is hard to imagine either at a poker table."--Arthur Goodhart
• U.S. Mobility:38 percent of US respondents say they are mobile with the resources, ability, and inclination to make a move. In fact, 5 percent of respondents say there is a 100 percent chance of their moving. The mobile are most likely to live in cities, though the income and educational background of "the mobile" and "the rooted" are similar.
EU:Foreign investment into Europe falls for first time in 7 years--CNBC International video interview of Andy Baldwin, EMEIA managing partner at EY, discusses the management consultancy's 2019 European Attractiveness report: "appetite to invest in Europe" has dropped to a seven-year low.
• European banks? "They are burdened with an overbanked market, aging systems, a lack of resources to digitise and re-invent their services, and there are still no signs of any European banks emerging as cross border champions. European banking union is another EU initiative that seems to have drowned in the sea of bureaucracy that sinks everything. Governments still see their duty as protecting national banking champions. There is repeated regulatory failure; Danske Bank in terms of money laundering and the collapse of Spanish and Italian banks doesn’t help. No European banks are expanding, building market share. Instead they are all, and have been, retrenching. If I could think of something positive to say about Europe ... But I really can’t"--Bill BlainJun 4, 2019.
China: the International Monetary Fund expects Chinese growth to slow to 6.2% this year and to 6% in 2020, the weakest since 1990, but many analysts believe real growth has already dipped below those levels, confirming a grim outlook for the world economy. See also The Countries with the Most MonstrousCorporate Debt Pileups.
Hong Kong: after seven hours of marching, organizers estimated 1,030,000 people took part in the protest opposing the proposed China extradition law.
January 2019: the US Justice Department unseals Huawei indictments including 23 counts (here and here) pertaining to the alleged theft of intellectual property, obstruction of justice, and fraud related to its alleged evasion of US sanctions against Iran.
June 2019: 'Dead Man Walking' Huawei,applies to trademark its “Hongmeng” operating system (OS) in at least nine countries and Europe, deploying a back-up plan in key markets as U.S. sanctions threaten its business model. However, China's industry insiders are less optimistic that Chinese chip makers can quickly meet the challenge of supplying all the needs of Huawei and other domestic technology firms. Prospectuses of Chinese chip companies preparing to list on a new tech-focused stock exchange in China are even more blunt, characterizing China's domestic chip industry as “relatively backward,” lacking in talent, and requiring “a long time to catch up.” See also:
Huawei indefinitely postpones the announcement of a new Windows laptop, originally scheduled for June, 2019, due to ongoing US trade sanctions.
Google Is Moving More Hardware Production Out of China--Trump’s tariffs push tech giant to boost Taiwan manufacturing, while companies, both foreign and domestic, increasingly seek to pivot production away from China due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to reset the parameters for global trade and manufacturing. Foxconn says it can assemble Apple iPhonesoutside China.
AT&T: Dish Network Corp is open to merging its satellite television business with AT&T Inc.’s pay TV service, DirecTV, since both Dish and DirecTV are hemorrhaging subscribers as viewers continue to shift to cheaper online streaming services such as Netflix Inc and Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime video service. Unfortunately, AT&T's problems don't end there as AT&T appears to have no viable plan for its WarnerMedia streaming service a year after the Time Warner merger closed. Verizon:7 Reasons To Turn Bearish--upcoming Wi-Fi 6 and Wi-Fi 7 technology may disrupt the wireless mobile industry by making free or low-cost city-wide Wi-Fi a reality.
Amazon is Betting Big On Satellite Internet. See also: Amazon is offering flight booking on its platform in India, and it wants to build a one-stop app to offer customers a wide range of services which will attract users to Amazon Pay in the crowded digital wallet industry.
Why Sell Microsoft--new tax law ramifications .. cloud computing has no moat ... Windows 10 has continuing quality and performance issues [Editor's note: most people would be better off to forget about Win10 and just get a Chromebook] ... Microsoft behind in artificial intelligence (AI).
Instagram, a fashionista favorite, helped unknown labels find an audience but now "big bucks are changing the game" as cash rich luxury goods groups such as LVMH and Kering use increased social media budgets to drown out rivals on platforms once seen as a leveler for brands big and small.
IPO: Pet care company Chewy Inc. (NYSE: CHWY) (domain: chewy.com), closed up 59% at $34.99 after its debut IPO on the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, June 14.
A Bad Use of Technology:"Illegal robocalls are not just a drain on individual households' peace of mind, they are also a drain on our economy," FCC Chief Economist Babette Boliek and Chief Technology Officer Eric Burger wrote in a blog post, before the FCC voted unanimously to let carriers block robocalls by default.
Personal Tech: Google’s Login Chief Would Rather You Use Apple’s Sign-In Button Than Keep Using Passwords--‘I honestly do think this technology will be better for the internet.’
CNBC Television video above published Jun 5, 2019: discussion on antitrust and U.S. tech companies with CNBC's Josh Lipton and Joe Kernen, and the Fast Money traders, Pete Najarian, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman and Guy Adami, and Antitrust Lawyer Gary Reback, Carr & Ferrell, on the government's antitrust case against Google.
Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple, worth nearly $3 trillion combined, reportedly under federal investigation.
Google Should Be Afraid. Very Afraid--a new round of antitrust questions can’t go well for the company. The culture has turned against tech since Google skated free in 2013--bloomberg.com.
Google has few political allies and a history of complaints, so an antitrust case may move quickly, say experts.
The House Judiciary Committee is launching a bipartisan investigation into whether large tech companies such as Facebook, Google and Amazon are using their vast market power to suppress competition.
A possible Apple probe is reportedly linked to the Google probe, and stems from meetings between the DOJ and the FTC.
Despite investor concerns about #tradewars causing a slowdown in the economy, the Fed’s latest #BeigeBook yesterday showed it has yet to dent growth materially. Fed Funds Futures still don’t care… odds here continue to forecast three rate cuts by the end of this year. $SPY$IVV
China: Chinese Bank With $105 BN In Assets On Verge Of Collapse. China’s stock market hit by the biggest outflow of foreign capital on record in April and May as trade war with the US and worry about the stability of the RMB weighed on investors, reported the Financial Times. China services PMI Plunges As Output Expectations Hit 7 Year Lows--zerohedge.com. Also: Pentagon report slams China for “eroding the values and principles of the rules-based order”--bloomberg.com.
Amazon said it would open pop-up shops in the UK to give more than 100 small online businesses an opportunity to sell on the 'high street' for the first time. “Clicks and Mortar” stores will sell homeware, health and beauty, food and drink, and electronics.
Food-Delivery Rivals DoorDash, Grubhub, Uber Eats and PostmatesRisk Capital Destruction--a problem in the 'valuations.'
Boeing 737 Max: fatal flaws can be traced to a breakdown late in the plane’s development, when test pilots, engineers andregulatorswere left in the dark about a change that would ultimately play a role in two crashes--NYTimes.com.
Calls to curb the power of big technology companies like Facebook $FB, Amazon $AMZN, Apple $AAPL, and Google $GOOG, $GOOGL, and protect personal data are growing louder. The FT explains some issues it thinks are reshaping the companies that dominate our daily lives. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published May 7, 2019.
Issues highlighted in the video: harmful content, election integrity, privacy, transparency, taxation, lack of competition (antitrust).
Tech Review (TR 2019-04-06)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1)Crypto & Blockchain Investing: 'Don't Buy Bitcoin, Do This', 2)How Instagram And Facebook Make Money, 3)Investing: The Week & Investor Notes,4)ICYMI Tech News:Amazon, Apple, Google, and more.
1)Crypto & Blockchain Investing: 'Don't Buy Bitcoin, Do This'
"Don't Buy Bitcoin. Do This Instead"--Peter Mallouk. "It's not a real investment," says certified financial planner Peter Mallouk. "It's speculation." CNBC.com video above published Apr 4, 2019.
2) How Instagram and Facebook Make Money
Everyday more than 2 billion people use Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp or Messenger, more than a quarter of the world's population. Despite a rising number of privacy scandals and public backlash — Facebook is still growing. Since its apps are free to use, Facebook sells advertising to make money. Here's how the company's advertising model works. CNBC.com video published Apr 2, 2019.
Investor Notes: U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 49-Year Low, Below All Forecasts.
But"Synchronized Global Growth Has Collapsed"--Why Deutsche Just Downgraded Caterpillar. EU: German Manufacturing Collapse: "Awful" Industrial Orders Plunge Most Since Financial Crisis.
Why Global Bond Market InvestorsAre Nervous: The European Central Bank has little margin to lower rates further, after the infusion of 2.6 trillion euros ($2.9 trillion) into the euro-zone economy through its bond-buying program, driving yields in Germany and the other most credit-worthy members below zero, in what some call a Japanification of the fixed-income market. Also: speculating against “the most distorted asset class in the world” caused Hugh Hendry to close his Eclectica hedge fund in September 2017, after the German two-year note confounded his expectations. Since then, that short-dated yield has averaged minus 0.6 percent, about where it was when Hendry decided to shut up shop, and near where it rests today.
Brexit: The value of the customs union to the UK is overrated--The customs union works well for German carmakers and French farmers, who have had a captive market for their products, but has not delivered anything like that for the UK.--theguardian.com.
US 'Tax Avoidance' Schemes: Wall Street’s “Dirty Little Secret” the ETF Tax Dodge--Banks pumping billions of dollars into and out of funds with “heartbeat” trades.--bloomberg.com.
Apple:services group could add an additional $25 billion in gross profit by 2023. Also Apple pulls plug on its wireless charging mat.
Google made $6.5 billion from sources other than ads in Q4 2018, an increase of 30% year-over-year, while Google's ad business is growing at 20% year-over-year. New revenue sources include Google Cloud, hardware, and Google's Play store--seekingalpha.com.
WeWork's $1.9 Billion Loss Is A Typical Tech Bubble 2.0 Story--zerohedge.com.
Germany's Daimler has filed a complaint with EU antitrust regulators about Nokia patents essential to car communications.
Personal Tech:
1. Why Can't I Get a Decent Stock Android Smartphone With No Apps Pre-Installed?
"Android ecosystem of pre-installed apps is a privacy and security mess"--extensive academic study finds data-harvesting and malware-laced pre-installed apps.--zdnet.com and An Analysis of Pre-installed Android Software (pdf).
Tech Review (TR 2019-03-30)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1)Apple $AAPL Rotting?2)China's T3 Initiative, 3)Investing:Q1 2019, Investor Notes: Eurozone Alarms Rising, 4)ICYMI Tech News: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Lyft, Amazon, Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Facebook, HP, Startups, FTC v. Robocallers. 1) Apple $AAPL Rotting?
Entering commoditized, fiercely competitive low-margin services cannot substitute for the high-margin profits that will be lost as global recession and saturation erode iPhone sales.--Charles Hugh Smith
Apple's Big Announcement: More TV, News, Credit Cards, and Oprah!
Apple's new entertainment subscription services and credit card, launched to great fanfare this week, could raise new concerns for the company over market power and competition issues. Apple executives at a star-studded event in Cupertino, Calif., this week unveiled subscription services in gaming, news and television, as well as a new Apple credit card. Sally Hubbard, director of enforcement strategy at the Open Markets Institute, told TheHill.com she is concerned that Apple is "controlling the game and playing the game too" as the owner of both the iOS App Store and creator of the iPhone.
The third generation of the butterfly keyboard on Apple's Mac laptops was supposed to fix all the problems. But nope. WSJ.com's Joanna Stern explains why the keyboards on the newest and most expensive MacBooks keep breaking—and the few things you can do about it. Wall Street Journal videos above published Mar 26 & 28, 2019.
2)China's T3 Initiative:
The formation of a new ride share initiative called T3 with 3 major Chinese state-run automakers, $BABA & Tencent is just one more example that the next wave of tech-based disruption in areas like mobility will be so expensive that no one or two companies can go it alone. $XLKpic.twitter.com/EEggSQGYfp
Alibaba, Tencent, Suning, and 3 Chinese SOE car makers, including Chongqing Changan Automobile, set up a $1.5 billion Chinese ride-hailing venture, a move that threatens China's dominant ride-sharing company, Didi Chuxing. 3) Investing
S&P 500 notches best start to a year since 1998, Dow rises more than 200 points on trade optimism--CNBC.com.
Snapshot Thursday, March 28: Stocks rose slightly, the S&P 500 holding steady over the past two weeks, but up 12% year-to-date. Treasury yields slightly higher, while the $US surged, hitting gold, which dropped nearly 1% to a three-week low of $1,290 an ounce.
Headwinds:
Investor Notes: Eurozone Alarms Rising
European Economic Storm Clouds--insidesources.com: on our way to another round of the European sovereign debt crisis?
Germany: views of “Current Economic Conditions” at Euro Debt-Crisis Level--wolfstreet.com
EU: A Proposed Megadeal Exposes the Grim Outlook for Europe’s Banks--bloomberg.com: Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank joining forces would be just the start of a long, painful process. No-Deal Brexit Now Likely Says European Commission--see also Five Reasons to Love a No Deal Brexit.
European Prognosis negative: the Financial Times reports that Deutsche Bank A.G. is looking to raise between €3 billion ($3.4 billion) and €10 billion in equity to help consummate the planned merger with peer Commerzbank A.G., “a move designed to end the debate over whether Germany’s largest lender has enough capital.” In a commentary, Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Investment Partners wrote that the ECB’s efforts to incentivize credit growth through penalizing idle reserves has backfired, demonstrating the differences between theory and practice.
They really have no idea what they are doing. The ECB is not a collection of newfound doves, they are chickens without their heads. Either way, it does not amount to anything good, and adds more weight to the considerable and growing list of everything bad.--grantspub.com The average European bank’s holdings of sovereign debt are about 170 percent of its core Tier 1 capital, more than triple the exposure at U.S. banks, according to Deutsche Bank research analysts. What’s more, about 60 percent of an average European bank’s sovereign bond holdings are of those issued by their home government. Why? Because government bonds carry zero risk weightings on banks’ books. This creates some perverse incentives.
Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI plunges to 47.6 in March, 71-month lows--fxstreet.com. See also: The eurozone lacks the scaffolding to withstand the symmetrical shock of the next recession, which could imperil the euro itself.--socialeurope.eu.
4)ICYMI Tech News:
Google, Microsoft, and Apple Are Fighting For Classrooms--CNBC.com video--chart above source:futuresource-consulting.com. Chromebooks are winning. Lyft closesup 9% on its first day of trading after raising $2.3B in its IPO, which valued the company at over $20B--NASDAQ: LYFT.
Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Disney, or AT&T? The Surprising Winner In The Streaming Service Race--seekingalpha.com--$AMZN. See alsoApple launches Apple TV+ (video) and YouTube Bows Out of Hollywood Arms Race With Netflix and Amazon--bloomberg.com.
Facebook: 10 Reasons Why I Have Sold All My Shares--seekingalpha.com--"Mark Zuckerberg wrote that Facebook will become "privacy-centered". This is really not believable, and if it would be, shareholders should be worried even more ... Zuckerberg himself has become a problem for Facebook."
New research reveals that Google built biases into its search results that influenced the 2018 midterm elections - possibly costing Republicans three congressional districts. --zerohedge.com. Apple Infringes Qualcomm Patent; Judge Recommends Ban on Some iPhones--bloomberg.com. Apple$AAPL: few analysts have looked at the headwinds in Europe and the longer term challenges in China.--seekingalpha.com.
The $130 billion digital advertising market may be dominated by Google and Facebook, but Amazon will start selling video spots on its smartphone shopping app.--zerohedge.com.
Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Mike Lynch faced off against each other in London’s High Court on Monday in a multi-billion dollar showdown over HP's 2011 purchase of the Autonomy software business he founded. The Autonomy-HP deal was a disaster, due, in part, to a failure of due diligence by HP whose CEO at the time, Leo Apotheker, was subsequently fired.
Startups Look Elsewhere: "With the cost of living surging across California, it's hardly surprising that the state has seen the largest net loss of residents as frustrated Californians seek more affordable climes like Nevada and Texas ... many of those who haven't left wish they could."--zerohedge.com.
Fintech Trends In 2019 (pdf): breaking down the disruption of financial services and what's ahead in 2019.
Personal Tech: FTC Crackdown Stops Operations Responsible for Billions of Illegal Robocalls. Unwanted calls pitched auto warranties, debt-relief services, Google listings, and a fake charity--FTC says it has fined four robocalling companies, responsible for “billions” of US calls, which will also cease operations--ftc.gov.
