Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eurozone. Show all posts

2019-06-01

Tech Review | Kiss Your Car Goodbye, Mobility As A Service (video)

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Tech Review (TR 2019-06-01)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) Kiss Your Car Goodbye, Mobility As A Service, 2) The World's Largest Car Manufacturers, 3) Investing: The Week & Investor Notes, 4)ICYMI Tech News: Facebook, IBM, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Huawei, and more.

1) Kiss Your Car Goodbye, Mobility As A Service

Drivers are already ditching their cars because of apps like Uber. Imagine what happens when driverless cars hit the roads. Bloomberg QuickTake explains the idea known as “mobility as a service.” Bloomberg.com video above published May 28, 2019. Note also: a generational wave, "millennials show little interest in car ownership."

2) The World's Largest Car Manufacturers May 27, 2019:
source: statista.com
Editor's note: How Many Will Still Exist in 2030? 

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) has made an offer (pdf) for a merger with the Renault Group that would create the third largest automobile manufacturer in the world. According to the proposal, the newly formed group would be co-owned by FCA and Renault shareholders at a 50-50 split with a balanced number of seats on the Board of Directors.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite -3% | S&P 500 Index -3% | DJIA -3%
Investor Notes:

US: the earnings yield on US stocks as an asset class has further widened its gap to bond yields. If today's low inflation is not transitory, the U.S. stock market multiples may be way too low. "What can drive [bond] yields higher? Inflation, which nobody in the investing universe believes is an actual ‘thing’ anymore," Nomura’s Charlie McElligott wrote last week.

China: US-Traded Chinese Stocks & ADRs Totally Crushed--many by 50% or 60% or more. See also Which Chinese Banks Will Fail Next?

Eurozone: haggling over who will succeed Mario Draghi begins--the process to replace ECB president comes under scrutiny as region faces economic and political turmoil. German Unemployment Explodes Most Since Financial Crisis, Sending Bund Yields Near Record Lows.

GundlachDeutsche Bank "price action looking pretty scary"and Soc Gen "heading straight south yet again"--
UK: May Ends In June--UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been a dismal failure--"She's no Lady Thatcher." Boris Johnson, Conservative Party MP, former UK Secretary of State, and former Mayor of London (2008-2016), likely to succeed Theresa May as Prime Minister.

The Brexit Party's rising star is Annunziata Rees-Mogg, newly elected MEP:
4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Facebook expects to launch cryptocurrency ‘GlobalCoin’ in Q1 2020, as a stablecoin pegged to a basket of fiat currencies, and is spending significant time with officials from both the US Treasury and the Bank of England. Facebook is also talking with money transfer firms including Western Union, clearly intending to compete with Paypal’s Venmo and Square’s CashApp, and become one of the world’s leading digital wallets.--Ark-Invest.com.

Quantum computing could help companies address problems as huge as supply chains and climate change. IBM, Google, Microsoft, and others are racing to bring the tech from theory to practice.

Nvidia bringing pro-level Quadro RTX GPUs to laptops--the Quadro RTX 5000 series is now available in mobile form. See also: Nvidia unveils its first AI platform for edge devices--Nvidia EGX, compatible with AWS and Azure IoT offerings; launch partners include Cisco, HPE, and Lenovo.

For Uber, autonomous vehicles can't come soon enough--Uber loses $1 billion in quarter as costs grow for drivers, food delivery.

Huawei: court documents, government and industry sources detail decades of Huawei's alleged IP theft, from the science behind 5G to phone accessory designs--channelnews.com.au. The fallout of the US Commerce Department adding Huawei to its “Entity List,” could be profound. President Trump's offhand remarks that Huawei was banned because it is a security threat yet the ban could be lifted as part of a trade deal, makes no sense except as a taunting negotiating ploy. Huawei smartphones rely on ARM-based CPUs and Google’s Android operating system. An export ban on these technologies effectively freezes Huawei’s product roadmap. Huawei will have to find alternatives to ARM-based mobile chips and a non-Google version of Android, a nearly impossible task. Likewise, Huawei’s 5G equipment requires components and intellectual property (IP) from US companies such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and others. Building a full 5G product stack, without access to US tech, is likely impossible.

Rare Earths: China supplies around 80% of world's rare earths, crucial for electronics, but not  effective for retaliation over the Huawei ban--despite the name, rare earths just aren't that rare.

Malinvestment: Tech Unicorns Are Just Like China's "Ghost Cities."

Congratulations to companies in South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and other Southeast Asia countries--"You did nothing, but you are all winners. Don't forget to send a thank you note to Mr. Trump, for all the new jobs he's about to create in your countries."--Likely Winners In The U.S.-China Trade War.

Google to invest 600 million euros in Finland data center. Note also: concerns rise about Google's ~121K temporary and contract workers globally, compared with just ~102K full-time staff.

Japan to limit foreign ownership of firms in its IT, telecom sectors,

Alibaba plans second listing in Hong Kong to raise $20 billion. China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC), delists from the NYSE.

IKEA to revamp app--the world’s biggest furniture retailer is shifting its business model away from brick-and-mortar suburban stores towards making shopping easier online.

Disruptive Innovation (smartphones): Digital Camera Sales Dropped 84% Since 2010.

Crypto: up to 86% of total reported cryptocurrency trading volume is likely fake, according to analysis of exchange website visits--theblockcrypto.com,

Amazon interested in buying Boost from T-Mobile, Sprint.

AT&T: CEO Randall Stephenson is "taking on Netflix and Comcast simultaneously. It won't be easy."--a look at AT&T's "grand vision" of transforming into a “modern media” company spanning multiple content networks, distribution channels, and customer data streams--fortune.com. Editor's note: my gut feel is that "it will all end badly." AT&T can't compete with Netflix, Amazon, Disney, et al. Who are they ($T management) kidding?
$T
Apparently, Wall Street is not impressed! The only thing AT&T has is a sweet dividend (for now).

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2019-03-30

Tech Review 1) Apple $AAPL Rotting? 2) China's T3 Initiative 3) Q1 2019

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Tech Review (TR 2019-03-30)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) Apple $AAPL Rotting? 2) China's T3 Initiative, 3) Investing: Q1 2019, Investor Notes: Eurozone Alarms Rising, 4) ICYMI Tech News: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Lyft, Amazon, Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Facebook, HP, Startups, FTC v. Robocallers.

1) Apple $AAPL Rotting?
Entering commoditized, fiercely competitive low-margin services cannot substitute for the high-margin profits that will be lost as global recession and saturation erode iPhone sales.--Charles Hugh Smith
Apple's Big Announcement: More TV, News, Credit Cards, and Oprah!

Apple's new entertainment subscription services and credit card, launched to great fanfare this week, could raise new concerns for the company over market power and competition issues. Apple executives at a star-studded event in Cupertino, Calif., this week unveiled subscription services in gaming, news and television, as well as a new Apple credit card. Sally Hubbard, director of enforcement strategy at the Open Markets Institute, told TheHill.com she is concerned that Apple is "controlling the game and playing the game too" as the owner of both the iOS App Store and creator of the iPhone.

Apple's Faulty MacBook Butterfly Keyboard Explained

The third generation of the butterfly keyboard on Apple's Mac laptops was supposed to fix all the problems. But nope. WSJ.com's Joanna Stern explains why the keyboards on the newest and most expensive MacBooks keep breaking—and the few things you can do about it. Wall Street Journal videos above published Mar 26 & 28, 2019.

2) China's T3 Initiative:
Alibaba, Tencent, Suning, and 3 Chinese SOE car makers, including Chongqing Changan Automobile, set up a $1.5 billion Chinese ride-hailing venture, a move that threatens China's dominant ride-sharing company, Didi Chuxing.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Q! 2019: NASDAQ Composite +16.5% | S&P 500 Index +13.1% | DJIA +11.2%
S&P 500 notches best start to a year since 1998, Dow rises more than 200 points on trade optimism--CNBC.com.
Snapshot Thursday, March 28: Stocks rose slightly, the S&P 500 holding steady over the past two weeks, but up 12% year-to-date. Treasury yields slightly higher, while the $US surged, hitting gold, which dropped nearly 1% to a three-week low of $1,290 an ounce.

Headwinds:
Investor Notes: Eurozone Alarms Rising

European Economic Storm Clouds--insidesources.com: on our way to another round of the European sovereign debt crisis?

Germany: views of “Current Economic Conditions” at Euro Debt-Crisis Level--wolfstreet.com

EU: A Proposed Megadeal Exposes the Grim Outlook for Europe’s Banks--bloomberg.com: Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank joining forces would be just the start of a long, painful process.

No-Deal Brexit Now Likely Says European Commission--see also Five Reasons to Love a No Deal Brexit.

European Prognosis negative: the Financial Times reports that Deutsche Bank A.G. is looking to raise between €3 billion ($3.4 billion) and €10 billion in equity to help consummate the planned merger with peer Commerzbank A.G., “a move designed to end the debate over whether Germany’s largest lender has enough capital.” In a commentary, Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Investment Partners wrote that the ECB’s efforts to incentivize credit growth through penalizing idle reserves has backfired, demonstrating the differences between theory and practice.

They really have no idea what they are doing. The ECB is not a collection of newfound doves, they are chickens without their heads. Either way, it does not amount to anything good, and adds more weight to the considerable and growing list of everything bad.--grantspub.com

The average European bank’s holdings of sovereign debt are about 170 percent of its core Tier 1 capital, more than triple the exposure at U.S. banks, according to Deutsche Bank research analysts. What’s more, about 60 percent of an average European bank’s sovereign bond holdings are of those issued by their home government. Why? Because government bonds carry zero risk weightings on banks’ books. This creates some perverse incentives

Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI plunges to 47.6 in March, 71-month lows--fxstreet.com. See also: The eurozone lacks the scaffolding to withstand the symmetrical shock of the next recession, which could imperil the euro itself.--socialeurope.eu.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Google, Microsoft, and Apple Are Fighting For Classrooms--CNBC.com video--chart above source: futuresource-consulting.com. Chromebooks are winning.

Lyft closes up 9% on its first day of trading after raising $2.3B in its IPO, which valued the company at over $20B--NASDAQ: LYFT.

Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Disney, or AT&T? The Surprising Winner In The Streaming Service Race--seekingalpha.com--$AMZN. See also Apple launches Apple TV+ (video) and YouTube Bows Out of Hollywood Arms Race With Netflix and Amazon--bloomberg.com.

Facebook: 10 Reasons Why I Have Sold All My Shares--seekingalpha.com--"Mark Zuckerberg wrote that Facebook will become "privacy-centered". This is really not believable, and if it would be, shareholders should be worried even more ... Zuckerberg himself has become a problem for Facebook."

New research reveals that Google built biases into its search results that influenced the 2018 midterm elections - possibly costing Republicans three congressional districts. --zerohedge.com.

Apple Infringes Qualcomm Patent; Judge Recommends Ban on Some iPhones--bloomberg.com.
Apple $AAPL: few analysts have looked at the headwinds in Europe and the longer term challenges in China.--seekingalpha.com.

The $130 billion digital advertising market may be dominated by Google and Facebook, but Amazon will start selling video spots on its smartphone shopping app.--zerohedge.com.

Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Mike Lynch faced off against each other in London’s High Court on Monday in a multi-billion dollar showdown over HP's 2011 purchase of the Autonomy software business he founded. The Autonomy-HP deal was a disaster, due, in part, to a failure of due diligence by HP whose CEO at the time, Leo Apotheker, was subsequently fired.

Startups Look Elsewhere: "With the cost of living surging across California, it's hardly surprising that the state has seen the largest net loss of residents as frustrated Californians seek more affordable climes like Nevada and Texas ... many of those who haven't left wish they could."--zerohedge.com.

Recommended reading from cbinsights.com:

Personal Tech: FTC Crackdown Stops Operations Responsible for Billions of Illegal Robocalls. Unwanted calls pitched auto warranties, debt-relief services, Google listings, and a fake charity--FTC says it has fined four robocalling companies, responsible for “billions” of US calls, which will also cease operations--ftc.gov.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2019-03-23

Tech Review 1) When Will Humans Get To Mars? (video)

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Tech Review (TR 2019-03-23)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) When Will Humans Get To Mars? 2) Amazon $AMZN Media Strategy, 3) Investing: The Week & Notes: 'Japanification’ of the Eurozone OR Eurification? 4) ICYMI Tech News: Google, 5G, Facebook, Qualcomm, Tesla, AMD, FIS & Worldpay, Quitting Big Tech.

1) When Will Humans Get To Mars?

Sending astronauts to Mars is a daunting prospect that will not deter NASA and private companies from trying to put humans on the red planet. The Economist.com video above published Feb 28, 2019.

2) Amazon $AMZN Media Strategy

When Amazon pursued the rights to a “Lord of the Rings” series in 2017, the company knew it would have to overcome some major obstacles to lure the J.R.R. Tolkien estate to its video-streaming platform. Amazon was a relative newcomer in video, with no track record of shepherding a blockbuster series. HBO, meanwhile, could tout its long history of hits, most notably “Game of Thrones,” a similarly epic series based on fantasy novels with a rabid fan base. Netflix, with more than 100 million subscribers, pioneered the on-demand model with hits such as “House of Cards” and “Orange is the New Black.” Apple was also in on the negotiations to acquire the rights for the upcoming TV show, according to people familiar with the matter.

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, a big “Lord of the Rings” fan, was promising the Amazon Studios team a huge budget to nab the series, a prequel to Tolkien’s “The Fellowship of the Ring.” But money alone wasn’t going to separate Amazon from the pack — Amazon’s $250 million offer wasn’t even the highest bid for the show’s rights, according to a person familiar with the matter. The ultimate selling point, according to people with knowledge of the negotiations, related to Amazon’s original business from over two decades ago: books.

The Tolkien estate was convinced that in promoting the series, Amazon could sell truckloads of Tolkien’s fantasy novels, including “The Hobbit” and “The Silmarillion” as well as “The Lord of the Rings.” During meetings with the Tolkien estate and publisher HarperCollins, Amazon’s Sharon Tal Yguado, who was hired from Fox in 2017, demonstrated a near encyclopedic knowledge of Tolkien’s characters, stories and geography, said the people, who asked not to be named because the talks were private.

The “Lord of the Rings” series will start production in the next two years. The huge investment in a TV series has made Hollywood wonder just how much Bezos will spend on content. So far, Amazon has dabbled across the TV spectrum, with original content such as “Lord of the Rings,” a growing back catalog of movies and shows, as well as live sports from the National Football League and the Premier League. In February, 2019, Bezos was spotted chatting with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell at the Super Bowl, a reminder that Amazon has several opportunities in the coming years to make a big splash in America’s most lucrative sport. Meanwhile, The New York Post reported that Amazon is nearing a $3.5 billion deal to acquire the YES network, the regional sports network in New York that carries Yankees games. CNBC.com video above published Mar 13, 2019.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite +0.8% | S&P 500 Index -0.9% | DJIA -1.1%
Dow drops more than 450 points, S&P 500 posts worst day since January amid global growth worries--CNBC.com, Friday, March 22, 2019. Despite the decline on Friday, stocks are still up sharply for the year: S&P 500 is up 11.7%, the tech-heavy NASDAQ up 15.2%, and the Dow is up 9.2%.

Editor's note: the first four days of the week (graphic below) tell the tale of FOMC Fed Chair press conference Mar 20, 2:30pm, but on Friday the 3-month vs. 10-year Treasury spread inverted for the first time since 2007, a signal (provided the inversion remains for 10 days), indicating a recession sometime within the next 2 years, perhaps sooner, particularly when the inversion is followed by a second one. 
NASDAQ Composite
Investor Notes: a global slowdown led by Europe
"... manufacturing activity in Germany dropped to its lowest level in more than six years in March. In France, manufacturing and services slowed down to their lowest levels in three months and two months, respectively. For the euro zone as a whole, manufacturing fell to its lowest level since April 2013. These data sent the German 10-year bund yield briefly into negative territory, its lowest level since 2016 ..."--CNBC.com
The ‘Japanification’ of the Eurozone--the eurozone is beginning to resemble Japan with its low-growth and low-inflation environment, coupled with still very loose monetary policy, according to economists at ING--"An end to current unconventional monetary policy, i.e. the negative deposit rate and ample liquidity, is not in sight and the ECB is expected to do everything it can to avoid an unwarranted tightening of its monetary stance."

Eurification: "Why is Europe caught in a lost decade – 12 years of minimal growth? There are definitely parallels with Japan, but as many differences ... the core problem is the structure behind the Euro – ill-conceived but now a “must-preserve-at-all-costs” construct that represents the “key-success” of the European polity ... The failure of the Euro structure has magnified one massive difference between  Eurofication and Japanificiation. While Japan fell into stagnation at full employment, Europe is substantially below – especially the further you get from Germany. Youth unemployment is massive across the EU and it looks permanent ... Eurofication is a stalled economy, stalled consumption and long-term massive structural unemployment"--Bill BlainEditor's noteif they are plucky, the Brits will leave the Euromess April 12.

See also Eurozone’s push for unified fiscal discipline is doomed to fail says Dr. Juan Castaneda--cityam.com.

France’s Message for the G7--President Emmanuel Macron and his Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire are using France’s G7 presidency to push an agenda that includes minimum global taxes and higher levies on tech giants like Amazon and Facebook. Le Maire’s view is there’s little choice if Europe doesn’t want to be dependent on U.S. or Chinese giants--use competition law against global tech giants, enabling the creation of European competitors.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
EU vs Google: The EU fines Google €1.49B for “abusive practices in online advertising” and breaching EU antitrust rules--europa.eu.

Google debuts Stadia, a game streaming service for Chrome, Android, and TVs that lets users “instantly” play games, also coming in 2019 with 4K HDR support at 60FPS--youtube.com.

Cutting through the 5G hype: survey shows telcos’ nuanced views--mckinsey.com Operators see a marginally positive business case, expect rollout at scale to take until 2022, and don’t think the increase in capital-expense-to-sales ratio will be as big as skeptics claim.

Facebook:  Zuckerberg planning to change Facebook from an open connected platform to a private, encrypted network encompassing its Facebook platform, WhatsApp and Instagram.

Qualcomm: Misunderstood Legal Ramifications And 5G Tailwinds--seekingalpha.com.

Tesla--How Not To Run A Company--A Mess at the Top & Moody’s Gets Nervous, Decision-Making Chaos, Epic Strategy Flip-Flops--wolfstreet.com.

AMD: Advanced Mass Delusions--seekingalpha.com

FIS’s $43B takeover of Worldpay--the scramble to build global payment systems.

Personal Tech: Quitting the five tech giants, full series: Day 1: Amazon; Day 2: Facebook; Day 3: Google; Day 4: Microsoft; Day 5: Apple.
Editor's Note: I'm minimal Microsoft, zero Apple, zero Facebook, but use Google daily, and use Amazon almost daily. How about you?
And social media? 
"Oldsters are on Facebook. Hipsters are on Twitter and vapidity rules on Instagram. As for Snapchat, it’s like Second Life, something overhyped that never broke through"--Bob Lefsetz

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2019-03-15

Brexit Madness - UK PM Theresa May to Ask EU for Brexit Delay (video)

Time Left Until Brexit, London time: 11:00 P.M., Friday, 12 Apr 2019 

Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.

UPDATES now at  UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
March 25, 2019: MPs pass Letwin Amendment to seize control of the Commons agenda on Wednesday – how MPs voted--brexitcentral.com.
March 21: May dashes to salvage Brexit deal in Brussels (video); Arriving in Brussels on Thursday for an EU summit, Mrs. May did not rule out leaving the European Union without a deal reports news.sky.com which also reports EU leaders agreed to extend the March 29th deadline to Apil 12. The deadline would be extended to May 22 only if UK MPs pass the prime minister's Brexit deal by the end of next week.

See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support  for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.

March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.

March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.

But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes,  or 3) UK revokes Article 50.  After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
FTSE100
FTSE250
March 19, 2019: EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier: "Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a no-deal scenario" ... UK MPs "voting against no-deal does not prevent it  happening." See also France ready to veto any meaningless Brexit delay: Elysee official--reuters.com: "French officials say in private that they are not alone in their stance but that they are more willing than other countries to stick their necks out because Britain will always blame the French for their misfortunes."
France’s EU minister Nathalie Loiseau named her cat ‘Brexit’ because ‘he meows loudly to be let out each morning, but then refuses to go outside when she opens the door.’
March 18, 2019: House of Commons Speaker John Bercow told MPs he would not allow PM Theresa May to ask the Commons to vote a third time if the motion hadn't changed. The announcement took the government by surprise--Channel 4 News video.

March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:

Ignore the nay-sayers – here’s why we’re still on course for a clean Brexit on 29th March: "MPs are not fearful of a weak unimaginative Government desperate to push through a failed deal. Parliament does not want to re-join the EU, it does not want a referendum. It cannot ask for an extension to implement the deal if MPs don’t want the deal. And nobody could stomach another drawn-out negotiation going on for potentially years and the imminent prospect of European Elections, manifestos, campaigns and all that comes with them. Once you have eliminated all the alternatives, the conclusion is staring you in the face – the UK will leave on 29th March and take back control"--Christopher Howarth | BrexitCentral.com.

Original post March 15, 2019:
The UK Government and UK Politicians Have Made A Shambolic Mess of Brexit (and the UK civil service is complicit)
Analysis and Opinion by the Editor:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.

Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.

Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty,  the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)

It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
Regarding Brexit, the single biggest issue gripping the U.K. is indecisionCitadel (citadel.com) billionaire founder Ken Griffin said. “Until they pick a path, it deters capital investment. Politicians don’t appreciate when they create uncertainty it kills the willingness to invest.
President Trump Meets with the Prime Minister of Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly." 

UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."

More on Brexit:


feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2019-03-09

Tech Review 1) 5 Myths About 5G, 2) Alibaba $BABA in the U.S. (video)

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2019-03-09)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) 5 Myths About 5G, 2) Alibaba $BABA in the U.S., 3) Investing: The Week & Investor Notes: US stocks, Eurozone, China, Brexit, Data & Narratives & "News",  4) ICYMI Tech News: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Huawei, JD.com, Facebook, Reddit, One Web, and Acquisitions.

1)  5 Myths About 5G

There are a lot of myths about what 5G, the fifth generation of wireless connectivity, can and can't do. WSJ.com's Spencer Macnaughton debunks five common 5G myths.

2) Alibaba $BABA in the U.S. 

Why Alibaba $BABA hasn't won over U.S. consumers and how it has focused on attracting U.S. businesses: Alibaba is China's largest e-commerce platform. In its latest earnings report, Alibaba disclosed having 636 million annual active consumers on its China retail marketplaces. That's almost double the entire population of the United States.

Alibaba's reach today expands far beyond e-commerce. Its realm now covers cloud computing (Alibaba Cloud), digital media and entertainment, (Youku, Alibaba Pictures, Damai, Alibaba Music, Alisports.com) and logistics services (Cainiao). Alibaba is also part owner of financial services company Ant Financial. Despite its enormous Chinese following, Alibaba is still not a well known brand to many Americans. CNBC.com video above published Mar 5, 2019.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite -2.4% | S&P 500 Index -2.2% | DJIA -2.2%
Stocks record five-day losing streak as global growth concerns rise--marketwatch.com
Investor Notes: 

US stocks have what it takes to hit new peaks, says JPMorgan strategist--“Our key theme remains that the current market backdrop has similarities to ’15-’16 mid cycle correction episode, and not to the end of the cycle”--Mislav Matejka, head of global equity strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co., in a Monday report (4 Mar 2019)--marketwatch.com.

Eurozone: Germany's top central banker warns against bringing back stimulus in Europe--cnbc.com. See also: "This Is Bad" - European Banks Tumble As ECB Unveils Massive Easing: Here's Why It's Not Working--zerohedge.com.

“New Economic or Financial Crisis” could start in Italy: French government frets--French banks are heavily exposed to Italy--wolfstreet.comEuro: “The problems with the euro are problems with governance. It has been deeply flawed from the outset. It doesn’t look like a very safe haven to go to from the U.S. dollar.”--Catherine Schenk, an economic historian at the University of Oxford--NYTimes.com.

Four Manufacturing Giants, China, U.S., Japan, and Germany, account for 58% of global manufacturing value added, but three of the four, Germany, Japan, and China are getting hit.--wolfstreet.com.

China: an auto industry running at 50% capacity, car sales hugely negative Y/Y "and China is about to halt state subsidies for Electric Vehicle production: why wouldn’t Beijing encourage foreign capital when they are bleeding like that? It also doesn’t sit well with China shooting down a mild WTO report stressing China needs to reform its SOEs"--zerohedge.com. See also Trade Isn't China's Only Worry. Exports from China in February were horrible, falling 20.7% year-over-year, compared to an expected 5% decline, but it’s not just exports, as February auto sales also fell by 18.5% from a year ago to 1.19 million units, the eighth consecutive drop. Don't blame Trump--"the United States imported a record number of products, including from China, widening the deficit to $891.3 billion"--NYTimes.com citing figures for 2018, adding December "was the highest monthly trade deficit since 2008, when the American economy was mired in recession."

Brexit: Bentley (video), is prepared for a hard Brexit. Brexiteers urge May to pursue a no-deal Brexit, arguing that even if Parliament voted for an extension to negotiations, it wouldn’t be binding on the government--bloomberg.com. Carmaker Rolls-Royce says a short Brexit delay would make things worse--reuters.com. Any Brexit extension could be challenged in EU courts--reuters.com.

Data & Narrative: don’t frame the data to the narrative"The data-mining trap is easy to fall into"--10 Rules for Forecasting: | cfainstitute.org. News Narratives, Mainstream Media Bias & Credibility: Americans' trust in mainstream media hits rock bottom--Gone are the days when US consumers looked to the nightly [TV] news and print media [newspapers, magazines] as trusted sources of information according to the Columbia Journalism Review--see here and hereEditor's note: so what is their function in society today? To serve as echo chambers reflecting the respective biases of each media "news" organization and their respective "target audiences." Beware the "news narratives" of your favorite "news sources." The "narrative" or even "consensus narrative," is often misinformed, incomplete, or outright wrong. Aware of this, bold investors and speculators have made $Billions on Wall Street.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Apple's China Woes: $AAPL core strategy is to provide high-quality products at a premium price, which has helped the company sell billions of dollars worth of iPhones since its introduction more than 10 years ago. However, the Chinese smartphone market does not have the Apple fanaticism that is so popular in the US and brand value is less likely to be a major decision driver."----seekingalpha.com

At Google, men are more frequently underpaid for doing the same job as a female engineer--zerohedge.com.

Microsoft Built a Bot to Match Patients to Clinical Trials--bloomberg.com. See also Microsoft says it will first offer quantum computing via Azure, debuts the Microsoft Quantum Network, a network of partners collaborating on quantum innovations--microsoft.com.

Huawei to be arraigned in U.S. fraud case in New York on March 14--reuters.com.

Chinese e-commerce company JD.com launches store on Google shopping site--reuters.com.

Facebook $FB Backfire: Facebook’s global lobbying against data privacy laws revealed, including against the EU's GDPR--theguardian.com.

Reddit announced a $300 million funding round last week, giving it a $3 billion valuation. With 330 million monthly active users and reportedly revenue of about $100 million, Reddit.com is generating an estimated $0.30 per user (ARPU), much less than Twitter: ~$9.48, Facebook: $7.37, Pinterest: ~$2.80, and Snap: $2.09. Editor's note: think monetization.

OneWeb's first six satellites have launched, part of a planned constellation of 650 to provide global internet access, after four years and $2B+ in funding--techcrunch.com.

Acquisition? Don’t do it ... If you look at the collective evidence across acquisitions, this is the most value destructive action a company can take”--Aswath Damodaran.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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