Showing posts with label referendum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label referendum. Show all posts

2019-03-27

UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)

Time Left Under First Extension of Brexit Date, London time: 11:00 P.M., Friday, 12 Apr 2019

Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019

UPDATES at Emergency European Summit on Brexit, Wednesday, April 10--EU leaders agreed to extend UK's exit date until October 31, 2019.
9-10 Apr 2019: Before an emergency European summit on Wednesday (Apr 10), UK Prime Minister Theresa May will travel to Paris and Berlin on Tuesday (Apr 9), to "make the case for extending article 50" to Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel.

8 Apr 2019:
4-5 Apr 2019: Talks between Labour and the government over Brexit aren’t going anywhere, reports @JGForsyth (Apr 5).

Theresa May asks for Brexit extension to June 30; EU could offer a year.
See also: EU's Juncker Warns UK Parliament To Reach Brexit Deal by April 12 (video)

2-3 Apr 2019: Wednesday House of Commons and Prime Minister's Question time.
Bring it on! May has to go!
1 Apr 2019, results of 2nd Day of Indicative Votes (no proposal approved):
Five reasons to love Brexit

"The 29th of March, 2019, should have been our independence day but as Brexit struggles on, Asa Bennett reminds readers of the five reasons they voted for Brexit in the first place."--The Telegraph video above published Mar 29, 2019.

 Friday 29 Mar 2019, UK Prime Minister Theresa May put her 'Brexit deal' to MPs for a vote for the third time, and it was defeated 344 "no" votes to 286 "aye." May said the defeat of her strategy had “grave” implications for the country, while the European Commission said an economically damaging no-deal split is now “a likely scenario.” See also Theresa May faces her day of reckoning on Brexit - and is warned it will not end well--telegraph.co.uk. Highlights from the EU Withdrawal Agreement Debate (video).

Editor's note 29 Mar 2019: the best or  "least dirty shirt" option at this point appears to be the default option, leaving with no deal on April 12, in view of the inability of the government or parliament to come up with an acceptable alternative, since uncertainty is starting to negatively impact the UK economy (video). Under a No Deal Brexit the UK would leave the EU on  April 12th on WTO terms. Though a "no deal" Brexit is disliked by a majority in the HoC, it still remains the "default option" under the Brexit legislation passed following the referendum on June 23, 2016. See also Brexit: Yanis Varoufakis (video) on May's mistakes and the best road ahead.

Why May's 'Deal' Was Rejected 3 times? It Wasn't Really Brexit.
Links:
Mar 27, 2019 update after the indicative votes, Peston LIVE video via Twitter.

Mar 27, 2019, House of Commons video, MPs' voted on a series of options to try to find a path forward, even though the "indicative votes" would not be binding on the government as it goes against the Tory manifesto. No alternative path gained a majority:
The statutory instrument proposing a new exit day for the UK to leave the EU has been passed. House of Commons voted 441 to 105 in favour. This amends the definition of “exit day” to ensure it is 22 May or 12 April depending if the Commons approves the "Withdrawal Agreement."

Mar 26, 2019 video: UK lawmakers once again frustrated Prime Minister Theresa May's plans for Brexit. On Monday evening MPs voted to take control of the parliamentary agenda. They're now set to hold a series of indicative votes on the country's departure from the EU, in an effort to find a solution backed by a majority. May has said she won't be bound by the results, but observers say this latest development shows just how much authority she's lost  over the Brexit process. See also ERG lawyers dispute May's delay (thread).

Previously on DomainMondo.com:


Meanwhile in Germany:

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2019-03-15

Brexit Madness - UK PM Theresa May to Ask EU for Brexit Delay (video)

Time Left Until Brexit, London time: 11:00 P.M., Friday, 12 Apr 2019 

Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.

 UPDATES now at  UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
March 25, 2019: MPs pass Letwin Amendment to seize control of the Commons agenda on Wednesday – how MPs voted--brexitcentral.com.
March 21: May dashes to salvage Brexit deal in Brussels (video); Arriving in Brussels on Thursday for an EU summit, Mrs. May did not rule out leaving the European Union without a deal reports news.sky.com which also reports EU leaders agreed to extend the March 29th deadline to Apil 12. The deadline would be extended to May 22 only if UK MPs pass the prime minister's Brexit deal by the end of next week.

See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support  for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.

March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.

March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.

But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes,  or 3) UK revokes Article 50.  After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
FTSE100
FTSE250
March 19, 2019: EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier: "Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a no-deal scenario" ... UK MPs "voting against no-deal does not prevent it  happening." See also France ready to veto any meaningless Brexit delay: Elysee official--reuters.com: "French officials say in private that they are not alone in their stance but that they are more willing than other countries to stick their necks out because Britain will always blame the French for their misfortunes."
France’s EU minister Nathalie Loiseau named her cat ‘Brexit’ because ‘he meows loudly to be let out each morning, but then refuses to go outside when she opens the door.’
March 18, 2019: House of Commons Speaker John Bercow told MPs he would not allow PM Theresa May to ask the Commons to vote a third time if the motion hadn't changed. The announcement took the government by surprise--Channel 4 News video.

 March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:

Ignore the nay-sayers – here’s why we’re still on course for a clean Brexit on 29th March: "MPs are not fearful of a weak unimaginative Government desperate to push through a failed deal. Parliament does not want to re-join the EU, it does not want a referendum. It cannot ask for an extension to implement the deal if MPs don’t want the deal. And nobody could stomach another drawn-out negotiation going on for potentially years and the imminent prospect of European Elections, manifestos, campaigns and all that comes with them. Once you have eliminated all the alternatives, the conclusion is staring you in the face – the UK will leave on 29th March and take back control"--Christopher Howarth | BrexitCentral.com.

Original post March 15, 2019:
The UK Government and UK Politicians Have Made A Shambolic Mess of Brexit (and the UK civil service is complicit)
Analysis and Opinion by the Editor:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.

Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.

Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty,  the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)

It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
Regarding Brexit, the single biggest issue gripping the U.K. is indecision, Citadel (citadel.com) billionaire founder Ken Griffin said. “Until they pick a path, it deters capital investment. Politicians don’t appreciate when they create uncertainty it kills the willingness to invest.”
President Trump Meets with the Prime Minister of Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly." 

UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."

More on Brexit:


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2019-03-12

Brexit Breakthrough? UK Nears 'No Deal' Brexit Deadline, March 29, 2019

'Make OR Break' Time for the UK Leaving the EU by March 29--

--Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019. 

  • March 14, 2019: the House of Commons approves 412 to 202 (majority: 210) the Government's main motion: the UK will seek an (unspecified) extension of the Article 50 period--this will result in the UK asking the EU to delay the Brexit date of March 29th, which must be agreed to by the EU's other 27 members. Read more in the BrexitCentral feed embedded below.
  • March 13, 2019: Motion rejecting 'no deal' Brexit approved 321-278, however the vote has no legal force since March 29, 2019, is the default date pursuant to statute (Article 50), for leaving the European Union with or without a 'deal'.
  • March 12, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May's 'deal' with the EU rejected 242 to 391 in the UK House of Commons. 
House of Commons LIVE video, Thursday, 14 March 2019, starts 9:30 am London:

UK economy defying expectations amid Brexit and global slowdown

CNBC International TV video above published March 13, 2019: UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond gives an update on the UK economy the day after politicians rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal for the second time.

House of Commons LIVE video below, Wednesday, 13 March 2019:
Starts at 11.30am London.

Tuesday 12 March 2019 YouTube.com video and UK House of Commons video:
Starts at 11.30 am London: [Oral questions: Justice (including Topical Questions); Ten Minute Rule Motion: Election Expenses (Authorisation of Free or Discounted Support), Craig Mackinlay MP (South Thanet, Conservative)]; Motion: Debate on a Motion relating to Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018; Adjournment [Future of community hospitals, Fiona Bruce MP (Congleton, Conservative)]. See also Brexit Debate LIVE replay video March 12, 2019.

FTSE 100 Index -- INDEXFTSE: UKX  March 12, 2019
March  12, 2018: British Pound Sterling LIVE: GBP Sterling starts BOUNCE BACK after MPs reject withdrawal agreement.

 Background and more info:  UK Brexit Agreement Vote: Now A 'No Deal Brexit' or Renegotiate.
The United Kingdom (UK) voted in a June 23, 2016, referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The process, for better or worse, has now reached its finale. Options include a last-minute deal, a no-deal Brexit, a delay (extension), or even another referendum. 
FTSE 100 Index -- INDEXFTSE: UKX
The FTSE 100 Index (Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index), a/k/a  FTSE 100, FTSE, or, informally, the "Footsie," is a widely followed benchmark index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with highest market capitalization. The index is often used as a gauge of prosperity for businesses regulated by UK company law.

See also:
Twitter @BrexitCentral (embed below) and @StandUp4Brexit


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2016-06-17

Brexit: EU Referendum Was A Terrible Mistake by David Cameron (video)

British Prime Minister David Cameron's 'terrible mistake' on Brexit:

Philip Stephens, the FT’s chief political commentator, talks to Lionel Barber, FT editor, about how the campaign on EU membership has reshaped UK politics and says that calling the referendum was a terrible mistake by Prime Minister David Cameron. Video published June 16, 2016, by the Financial Times - FT.com.
"He (Cameron) made a terrible mistake ... as for the result ... if the normal rules of politics still apply we will vote to "remain" [in the EU], if the rules of politics have been completely overturned we will vote "Leave" and America should start thinking about a Donald Trump Presidency."
The "Brexit vote" will take place next Thursday, June 23, 2016. Ramifications for not only the UK, but also the EU and global markets, have some investors "on edge." The leading "Vote Leave" website is: voteleavetakecontrol.org, but campaigning has been suspended until Saturday due to the tragic death of British member of Parliament Jo Cox.

UPDATE June 17, 2016: How the Jo Cox Murder Could Influence the Outcome of the EU Referendum | Qriously.com: "Our [June 17] poll shows Leave with a nearly insurmountable lead over Remain. Among likely voters, 52% back Leave, with only 37% backing Remain. In our first poll, 40% of likely voters planned to back Remain; but on Friday, this had dropped to 32%, with the Remain voters flocking to ‘Don’t know’. This means that previously-declared Remain voters are losing faith, with likely voters increasingly uncertain on Friday."

 Latest polls indicated a surge for "Leave" as of June 16:


Read more:
Why I am voting to leave the EU | telegraph.co.uk: "... the EU as constructed is not only corrosive but ultimately dangerous, and that is the phase we have now reached as governing authority crumbles across Europe. The [EU] Project bleeds the lifeblood of the national institutions, but fails to replace them with anything lovable or legitimate at a European level. It draws away charisma, and destroys it. This is how democracies die. "They are slowly drained of what makes them democratic, by a gradual process of internal decay and mounting indifference, until one suddenly notices that they have become something different ..."--Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 

 High Anxiety Over Brexit Survey Crashes U.K. Pollster’s Site| Bloomberg.com: "[Traffic] overwhelmed the website of U.K. pollster ICM, highlighting the anxiety in the financial markets over the vote in 10 days on Britain’s membership in the European Union..."

 Brexit and Democracy | mainlymacro.blogspot.com : "Dani Rodrik talks about an impossible trilemma: how you cannot have all three of ‘hyper globalisation’, national sovereignty and democracy."

 Brexit: a Challenge to America's Domination of Europe | washingtonsblog.com: "... The lead financial writer at the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, wrote in 2000: "Declassified American government documents show that the US intelligence community ran a campaign in the Fifties and Sixties to build momentum for a united Europe ... The State Department also played a role. A memo from the European section, dated June 11, 1965, advises the vice-president of the European Economic Community, Robert Marjolin, to pursue monetary union by stealth. It recommends suppressing debate until the point at which “adoption of such proposals would become virtually inescapable.”"  -- Kind of sounds like NTIA, ICANN and the IANA stewardship transition, doesn't it?

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