'The recession has already started': David Rosenberg on the U.S. economy
BNN Bloomberg spoke with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, about growing concern over the state of the global economy. and why he thinks the U.S. recession has already started. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 17, 2019. Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., (domain: gluskinsheff.com) is a Canadian wealth management firm. BNN Bloomberg is a Canadian English language specialty channel owned by Bell Media, broadcasting Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets, headquartered at 299 Queen Street West in Downtown Toronto. [Editor's note and caveat: Rosenberg has been known as a perma-bear.]
Get U.S. dollar exposure to prepare for coming economic pain: David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg thinks the U.S. is already in recession, but doesn't believe investors should flee from the greenback. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 18, 2019.
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Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Recession. Show all posts
2019-03-28
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: 'I'm not worried about a recession'
Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still "quite strong," and he sees growth of between 1.75 percent to 2 percent in 2019. CNBC International TV video above published Mar 25, 2019.
Domain: chicagofed.org
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still "quite strong," and he sees growth of between 1.75 percent to 2 percent in 2019. CNBC International TV video above published Mar 25, 2019.
Domain: chicagofed.org
Charlie #Evans is speaking now Revisiting Risk Management in Monetary Policy on at the #CSAIC hosted by @csapac. The full text of his speech is available online: https://t.co/vgngyUDeXe pic.twitter.com/xvfVoOk7S3— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 25, 2019
It's #FedFriday: True or false? The lifespan of a $100 bill is about 10 years. Find out if you're right, then find out how many hundreds are in circulation: https://t.co/YvquosO4WR pic.twitter.com/tJuqN0qa84— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 22, 2019
Join us at #PolicySummit 2019 this June in #Cincinnati! Raj Chetty & David Williams @OppInsights will discuss econ mobility & what we might do to help people get ahead, w/ @ClevelandFed & @ChicagoFed, @MinneapolisFed, @philadelphiafed & @stlouisfed. https://t.co/fQNiytgTJM pic.twitter.com/5fJXKBrERy— ClevelandFed (@ClevelandFed) March 22, 2019
Don't miss your chance to hear #federalreserve Chair Powell discuss Renewing the Promise of the Middle Class at the Fed's #CommunityDevelopment Conference on May 9-10, 2019, in Washington, DC. Full agenda now available at #CommDev2019. https://t.co/0RHBSQ2Fh3 pic.twitter.com/HQYg7M08Mw— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 13, 2019
Meet our #K9 officers at our Detroit Branch, Gajo and Vice. As you can see, they take their workouts seriously. (Gajo leaps, while Vice rests up.) Stay tuned for more action! #dogsofthefed pic.twitter.com/sDz4L6Z8n0— ChicagoFed (@ChicagoFed) March 13, 2019
2019-03-15
Brexit Madness - UK PM Theresa May to Ask EU for Brexit Delay (video)
Time Left Until Brexit, London time: 11:00 P.M., Friday, 12 Apr 2019
Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
UPDATES now at UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.
March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.
March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.
But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes, or 3) UK revokes Article 50. After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
March 19, 2019: EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier: "Everyone should now finalise all preparations for a no-deal scenario" ... UK MPs "voting against no-deal does not prevent it happening." See also France ready to veto any meaningless Brexit delay: Elysee official--reuters.com: "French officials say in private that they are not alone in their stance but that they are more willing than other countries to stick their necks out because Britain will always blame the French for their misfortunes."
March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:
Original post March 15, 2019:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.
Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.
Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty, the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)
It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly."
UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."
More on Brexit:
Original Countdown to Brexit: 11:00 pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019.
UPDATES now at UK Dysfunction | Brexit Or Not, Final Days Or Kick The Can Again? (video)
- Twitter list A: BrexitUK List; @BrexitCentral; @StandUp4Brexit; @TelePolitics.
- Twitter list B: @commonslibrary; @HoCPress; @HouseofCommons
- Video: parliamentlive.tv/Commons (video).
- The UK is ready for a WTO Brexit (March 21 briefing)
March 21: May dashes to salvage Brexit deal in Brussels (video); Arriving in Brussels on Thursday for an EU summit, Mrs. May did not rule out leaving the European Union without a deal reports news.sky.com which also reports EU leaders agreed to extend the March 29th deadline to Apil 12. The deadline would be extended to May 22 only if UK MPs pass the prime minister's Brexit deal by the end of next week.It’s the political class promising one thing in relation to Brexit & delivering another. Trust in politics is broken... https://t.co/lf4g9AAEtG— Priti Patel MP (@patel4witham) March 25, 2019
See also "... The faltering and badly drafted [UK Prime Minister's] letter to Mr Tusk is unacceptable, asking as it does for a delay of three months in our exit from the EU ... I agree some MPs have been delaying Brexit as the PM says. These MPs clearly include the Prime Minister herself who has wasted far too much time on a negotiation and Agreement which the public rejects massively. The latest poll shows just 14% support for Mrs May’s Agreement."--johnredwoodsdiary.com.
March 20: EU ultimatum to May: you can only delay Brexit if deal is passed--Channel 4 News video published March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May has ruled out a long extension to Brexit while she is Prime Minister. See also the Prime Minister's statement (video) later in the day on Wednesday, March 20, 2010. See also: May's Letter Asking for Only Short Extension Came as Shock to EU--"EU officials say they see the risk of a looming catastrophe and the mood in Brussels is bleak as they realize that May has backed them into a corner too."--bloomberg.com.
March 20, 2019: UK Prime Minister Theresa May requests three-month Brexit extension--"I am therefore writing to inform the European Council that the UK is seeking an extension to the Article 50 period under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union, including as applied by Article 106a of the Euratom Treaty, until 30 June 2019." --Letter in full here. See also Newspaper headlines: May's 'blame game' Brexit speech to nation | bbc.com.
But European Council President Donald Tusk said an extension would only be granted if MPs back the Prime Minister's Withdrawal Agreement next week. Three things could happen now: 1) no-deal Brexit, 2) May's 'deal' is somehow voted on yet again and passes, or 3) UK revokes Article 50. After Donald Tusk spoke, the UK pound sterling (GBP) fell, an indication that markets think there is now a greater chance of no-deal Brexit, but the London Stock Exchange benchmarks FTSE100 and FTSE250 have been resilient:
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France’s EU minister Nathalie Loiseau named her cat ‘Brexit’ because ‘he meows loudly to be let out each morning, but then refuses to go outside when she opens the door.’March 18, 2019: House of Commons Speaker John Bercow told MPs he would not allow PM Theresa May to ask the Commons to vote a third time if the motion hadn't changed. The announcement took the government by surprise--Channel 4 News video.
March 18, 2019: A 'Hard" a/k/a 'No Deal' Brexit will benefit UK and emerging markets, says Mark Mobius, founding partner of Mobius Capital Partners. He also says he fears a soft Brexit will prohibit the U.K.'s economic potential, video below:
Ignore the nay-sayers – here’s why we’re still on course for a clean Brexit on 29th March: "MPs are not fearful of a weak unimaginative Government desperate to push through a failed deal. Parliament does not want to re-join the EU, it does not want a referendum. It cannot ask for an extension to implement the deal if MPs don’t want the deal. And nobody could stomach another drawn-out negotiation going on for potentially years and the imminent prospect of European Elections, manifestos, campaigns and all that comes with them. Once you have eliminated all the alternatives, the conclusion is staring you in the face – the UK will leave on 29th March and take back control"--Christopher Howarth | BrexitCentral.com.Theresa May has been warned by her party's biggest donors that delaying Brexit would be more damaging to British companies than ‘no deal’, which has already been factored in.— #StandUp4Brexit (@StandUp4Brexit) March 17, 2019
The uncertainty caused by a long extension would be ‘debilitating for companies’https://t.co/PIW1eUPNfN
If we agree this deal – we face an even greater humiliation in the second phase. We must now discover some willingness to resist or the diet of capitulation is set to continuehttps://t.co/kXOpRhOdzH— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) March 17, 2019
Original post March 15, 2019:
The UK Government and UK Politicians Have Made A Shambolic Mess of Brexit (and the UK civil service is complicit)Analysis and Opinion by the Editor:
The House of Commons ended its voting on a flurry of Brexit-related motions this week with one more humiliation and embarrassment for the hapless government formed by Prime Minister Theresa May--going back to Brussels and pleading for the EU (via its 27 other members) to agree to an extension of the Brexit date of March 29, 2019, a date May and her UK government chose following the Brexit referendum results of June 23, 2016.
Wherever you live, and whatever you may think of your own national government or its politicians, pity the poor British--Brexit outside the bubble: How do the British think Brexit is going?--UK Channel 4 News video published Mar 14, 2019, indicates how all this latest Brexit chaos is being seen by people who are not obsessives confined to the Westminster bubble.
Unless the British get lucky and get a quick exit from the EU by default on March 29, 2019, their economy will likely soon "tank" due to the continual uncertainty, the UK government having chosen a no-man's land of "neither in nor out" of the dysfunctional European Union (EU) which is already entering its own economic recession--Italy is already there, Germany and France are not far behind despite renewed "easing" by the European Central Bank (ECB)--see Euro falls as Eurozone growth forecasts slashed | cityam.com: "European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi today announced a significant downgrade in Eurozone growth predictions as he renewed a stimulus programme of cheap loans to bolster the struggling economy." (March 7, 2019)
It appears a majority in the House of Commons prefer to drown with bureaucrats in Brussels and EU member states trapped in the Eurozone, rather than swim to safety and a world full of opportunities. This is Dunkirk all over again, but the boats aren't coming this time. Don't expect even the Almighty to help those who refuse to help themselves.
Regarding Brexit, the single biggest issue gripping the U.K. is indecision, Citadel (citadel.com) billionaire founder Ken Griffin said. “Until they pick a path, it deters capital investment. Politicians don’t appreciate when they create uncertainty it kills the willingness to invest.”President Trump Meets with the Prime Minister of Ireland
U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar discuss Brexit at a press conference at the White House, March 14, 2019. Trump: "The European Union treats us very unfairly."
UK Channel 4 News recap video of March 14, 2019, in the House of Commons: "May wins vote to seek Brexit delay"-- "In a narrow Commons victory this evening the government fought off an attempt by MPs to take control of Brexit in Parliament. Instead, Theresa May has presented a stark choice to MPs: back her deal in another vote next week - or risk a long delay to Brexit - and even the possibility of having to hold European elections in May. MPs are now expected to have a third meaningful vote on Brexit next week. That's just before Theresa May heads off to Brussels for what is currently set to be the last European summit with a British Prime Minister at the table."
More on Brexit:
- Twitter: BrexitUK List; @BrexitCentral; @StandUp4Brexit
All Con & Lab MPs were elected on manifestos to get Brexit through. The public can't believe that so many are now saying, “We didn't really mean it; we want to stop it; we want to delay it; we want to redefine it in a way that means it is no longer Brexit.” pic.twitter.com/un5yMDEoDQ— John Redwood (@johnredwood) March 14, 2019
2019-03-11
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Beyond Its Borders (video)
How China's Economic Slowdown Is Rippling Around the Region
Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
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Slower growth in China is affecting everything from smartphone sales to oil exports, and companies and countries in its orbit are beginning to feel the crunch. Wall Street Journal (WSJ.com) video above published Mar 6, 2019.
Tweets by ChinaRealTime
2019-03-06
'Free Money' | Modern Monetary Theory a/k/a MMT Explained (video)
Bernie Sanders' 2016 Advisor On Trump's Economy And Modern Monetary Theory
CNBC video above published Mar 4, 2019: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is gaining traction in American politics, energizing the progressive left and roiling deficit hawks. Stephanie Kelton, who advised Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, explains the basics.
2020 Election: She says Democrat presidential hopefuls are swinging for the fences with ambitious policy proposals while Trump appears to have changed his thinking on the deficit and debt since his 2016 run. On headwinds facing the economy, Kelton says she sees an "extraordinarily resilient" U.S. economy despite a "real" global slowdown and a small chance of additional rate hikes from the Fed.
Stephanie Kelton is a proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the economic rational cited by rising political stars like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D-N.Y. She is currently a professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University. Previously, she served as chief economist for the Democrats on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and was a senior economic advisor to Bernie Sanders ' 2016 presidential campaign.
Editor's note: key questions: what is your definition of "full employment"? What political system has the necessary discipline to apply the constraints required for an effective long-term MMT policy?
See also:
CNBC video above published Mar 4, 2019: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is gaining traction in American politics, energizing the progressive left and roiling deficit hawks. Stephanie Kelton, who advised Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, explains the basics.
2020 Election: She says Democrat presidential hopefuls are swinging for the fences with ambitious policy proposals while Trump appears to have changed his thinking on the deficit and debt since his 2016 run. On headwinds facing the economy, Kelton says she sees an "extraordinarily resilient" U.S. economy despite a "real" global slowdown and a small chance of additional rate hikes from the Fed.
Stephanie Kelton is a proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the economic rational cited by rising political stars like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D-N.Y. She is currently a professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University. Previously, she served as chief economist for the Democrats on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and was a senior economic advisor to Bernie Sanders ' 2016 presidential campaign.
Editor's note: key questions: what is your definition of "full employment"? What political system has the necessary discipline to apply the constraints required for an effective long-term MMT policy?
See also:
- Paul Krugman Asked Me About Modern Monetary Theory. Here Are 4 Answers. Deficit levels, interest rates and the tradeoff between fiscal and monetary policy, by Stephanie Kelton, March 1, 2019--bloomberg.com
- The left’s embrace of modern monetary theory is a recipe for disaster by Larry Summers--WashingtonPost.com.
- Modern Monetary Nonsense, Mar 4, 2019, by Kenneth Rogoff: "... Contrary to widespread opinion, the US central bank is not an independent financial entity: the [U.S.] government owns it lock, stock, and barrel. Unfortunately, the Fed itself is responsible for a good deal of the confusion surrounding the use of its balance sheet. In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed engaged in massive “quantitative easing” (QE), whereby it bought up very long-term government debt in exchange for bank reserves, and tried to convince the American public that this magically stimulated the economy. QE, when it consists simply of buying government bonds, is smoke and mirrors ..."--project-syndicate.org.
- Running on MMT (Wonkish)--Trying to get this debate beyond Calvinball by Paul Krugman--NYTimes.com.
- Modern Monetary Theory Isn’t Helping--jacobinmag.com
2019-02-22
Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi - Next U.S. Recession, in 2021? (video)
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower global economy in 2019 compared to last year, especially China, which is likely to have some impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession is not in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved, "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well.
What Will Cause The Next Recession - Mark Zandi Says Student Loan Debt
CNBC video above published Jan 14, 2019: Chief economist of Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi says the $1.5 trillion of outstanding student loan debt has created a 'crisis' for young Americans. It's part of the reason millennials are waiting longer to start families, buy houses, and launch businesses. It might also lead to the end of the US economy's 'virtuous' cycle in 2020. To solve the problem, he suggests shifting focus from providing student loans to increasing the supply of education options – including trade schools, online learning, and community colleges. Editor's note: Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, hasn’t contributed to any Republican “for any federal office since 2008” and was an “Obama adviser and Clinton donor.”
Tweets by economics_ma
Editor's note: post originally published under title What Will Cause the Next Recession? Michelle Meyer & Mark Zandi (video).
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
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2019-01-26
Tech Review:1) Breakup Amazon? Google? 2) China's Growth Rate Slows
1. Breakup Amazon? Google?
Why the Breakup of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, & Google, Will Never Happen
Arete Research (arete.net) founder Richard Kramer challenges Scott Galloway’s position on the breakup of Amazon $AMZN, Apple $AAPL, Facebook $FB, & Google $GOOGL, GOOG. L2inc.com video above published Jan 17, 2019.
2) China's Growth Rate Slows
China growth rate at its lowest since 1990
A look behind the numbers to explain what's happening to the Chinese economy. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Jan 21, 2019.
3) Investing
China: "the problem is ... debt is no longer having the same kind of effect ... the amount of debt needed to produce a given impact on GDP ["credit intensity"] more than tripled ... In the next downturn ... Beijing may not be able to borrow its way out of the hole"--mauldineconomics.com. Bloomberg.com: "China’s Xi Warns Party of ‘Serious Dangers’ as Risks Mount."
Eurozone, EU & Brexit: the euro is sttll a real worry for all of Europe--cnn.com. The euro's unhappy 20th birthday--thehill.com. "... the Eurozone ... is far from being a happy place ... one cannot rule out another economic crisis. I say this as the UK exports goods and services worth €209 Billion ($237 Billion) to the EU and imports from the EU trade worth €342 Billion ($388 Billion). The UK accounts for 16.8% of all EU exports. That is a too big a hit for a bloc the size of the EU to take without a problem rippling through the economy ..."--Forbes.com.
Brexit? American Hedge Fund Billionaire Ken Griffin (Citadel LLC founder) Buys $122 Million London Home--bloomberg.com Jan 21, 2019.
Bullish: Guggenheim Partners Global Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd says worries about a global recession are inflated, and pessimism expressed by political and business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos is a “valuable contra-indicator” for investors, making him bullish.
Sweet Dreams: "go with a low-cost, one- to four-year average maturity U.S. Treasury fund ... Vanguard Short-Term Federal fund [VSGBX]. I don’t invest in anything with a maturity of five years or longer. I’m concerned about U.S. budget problems leading to a potentially much steeper yield curve, so I want to stay relatively short term. The Vanguard fund is a laddered fund. As bonds mature, the money is reinvested. You will compound your gains if interest rates go higher. Those are my picks: If you buy gold, and own the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (hedged with the S&P 500 for bearish investors), and buy this bond fund, you’ll sleep pleasantly at night"--Jeffrey Gundlach.
4) ICYMI Tech News:
Amazon's AWS is the "internet’s largest cloud provider, generating over $17 billion in revenue last year. Though Amazon makes much more in gross sales—over $100 billion—from its retail business, if you scrutinize its earnings reports, you’ll see that the majority of its profits come from AWS. Tech is where the money is, baby."--gizmodo.com
Microsoft's recently signed major enterprise cloud deals "scream of retail and healthcare companies wanting a solution not involving Amazon controlled AWS"--seekingalpha.com.
Google says it will appeal its recent $57 million fine for breaching Europe's strict new privacy rules known as GDPR.
Apple in China: "due to the ubiquitousness of WeChat, Apple's iOS holds a less prominent place in the Chinese user's mindspace - the iPhone retention rate is only 50%"--seekingalpha.com.
5G: global mobile data traffic expected to grow eight times by the end of 2023 ... with first commercial 5G networks and devices launched 2018. Ericsson estimates the number of subscriptions reaching one and a half billion by the end of 2024."--ericsson.com/en/5g
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
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4) ICYMI Tech News:
Microsoft's recently signed major enterprise cloud deals "scream of retail and healthcare companies wanting a solution not involving Amazon controlled AWS"--seekingalpha.com.
Google says it will appeal its recent $57 million fine for breaching Europe's strict new privacy rules known as GDPR.
Apple in China: "due to the ubiquitousness of WeChat, Apple's iOS holds a less prominent place in the Chinese user's mindspace - the iPhone retention rate is only 50%"--seekingalpha.com.
5G: global mobile data traffic expected to grow eight times by the end of 2023 ... with first commercial 5G networks and devices launched 2018. Ericsson estimates the number of subscriptions reaching one and a half billion by the end of 2024."--ericsson.com/en/5g
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
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2019-01-12
Tech Review | Apple's China Problem Goes Deeper Than iPhones
1) Apple's China Problem Goes Deeper Than iPhones
Tepid iPhone sales aren't all that ail Apple (apple.com) in China. Competition from local smartphone rivals, trade-dispute fallout and a court battle could make 2019 a tough year for Apple in its most important market outside the U.S. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Jan 7, 2019. See also Why Apple Revised Its Outlook - It's Not All China (video).
NASDAQ: AAPL
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For the first time, silicon carbide – a material older than the solar system – is helping power electric vehicles and ease the use of solar technology. While the compound was first discovered in meteorites dating back over 4.6 billion years, it’s now possible to synthesize it and use it to make power semiconductors. “Silicon carbide’s advantages can be summed up in one word – efficiency,” explains Alexander Duval of Goldman Sachs Research.
Although cheaper silicon-based devices are more widespread, silicon carbide can withstand higher temperatures and preserve more energy than silicon, benefiting power sources like batteries. Duval believes that silicon carbide could ultimately slash the cost of manufacturing EVs and installing solar inverters – savings that will outweigh its higher initial cost in the long run. GoldmanSachs.com video above first published Jan 7, 2019.
3) Investing
"The stock market just got off to its best start in 13 years"--marketwatch.com
Long View
Next ECB chief will be in an ‘incredibly difficult position' says Economist
Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis Gestion (tressis.com), discusses the European Central Bank (ECB) and the future of European monetary policy. CNBC International TV video above published Jan 10, 2019.
- Eurozone: not safe yet--the euro still needs fixing--economist.com
- Brexit Deal? UK House of Commons to hold parliamentary vote on UK Prime Minister Theresa May's 'Brexit deal' January 15. London remained the top destination in Europe for technology investment in 2018, with nearly double the amount of nearest rival Berlin.
- Recession?
"John Maynard Keynes talked about feedback. When people lose their job, they stop spending. That feeds back into the labor market again because when they stop spending, more jobs are lost. It gets feedback and can amplify itself into a big depression, as Keynes explained. There’s a lot of talk in the air about a recession being overdue, or a recession coming. To some extent, this talk itself can be a self‑fulfilling prophecy"--Robert J. Shiller on Bubbles, Reflexivity, and Narrative Economics.
4) ICYMI Tech News:
- Amazon Overtakes Apple, Microsoft To Become World's Largest Listed Company (in market capitalization). See also seekingalpha.com: huge Amazon margin expansion to come.
- Qualcomm says Huawei gets only 22 percent of its modems from Qualcomm, and Samsung gets only 38 percent of the chips it uses from Qualcomm.
- Facebook $FB: Over a 5-month period, Facebook $FB lost more than 40% of its market capitalization--SeekingAlpha.com. See also: Inside Facebook's 'cult-like' workplace, where dissent is discouraged and employees pretend to be happy all the time--cnbc.com.
- Apple $AAPL: iPhone sales are falling off a cliff, down 15% Y/Y--3 Things Tim Cook Didn't Tell You | seekingalpha.com. For every 1% drop in China revenue growth, Apple total revenue growth will drop 1.5%--seekingalpha.com.
- Google Moved $23 Billion To Bermuda Tax Haven In 2017 to take advantage of a European tax loophole, a "totally legal" tax-avoidance scheme involving a soon-to-be-phased-out strategy known as the "Double Irish, Dutch Sandwich."
- Ripe for Disruption? $3.5 Trillion A Year: Is America's Health Care System The World's Largest Money-Making Scam?--zerohedge.com.
- China approves second group of video games but none of Tencent Holdings Ltd.
- Personal tech: Acer's first AMD Chromebook comes with a 15.6-inch display, AMD A4 or A6 CPUs, integrated Radeon graphics, and up to 8GB of RAM, starting at $280.
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
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2016-10-24
MacroView: Nationalism and Protectionism Now Rising In Germany
MacroView Feature • Protectionism: Behind the scenes, a new Germany AG (Germany Inc.) formed--welt.de: "Protectionism in Germany is no longer a dirty word." While nothing has yet been decided, solutions are being worked on “behind the scenes,” according to Die Welt and a follow-up in WolfStreet.com. Four events in particular are reported to have shaken German industry leaders:
- Deutsche Bank’s potential fine of $14 billion proposed by the U.S. Justice Department to settle allegations concerning mortgaged backed securities sold before the financial crisis by Deutsche Bank’s U.S. unit. The largest U.S. banks have already settled, and Deutsche Bank’s fine would not be the largest one.
- Volkswagen’s nightmare legal situation in the U.S., and, to a lesser extent, in other countries, as a result of VW's dieselgate fraud.
- Acquisition of German robotics company Kuka by Chinese firm Midea.
- Proposed acquisition of lighting specialist Osram by Chinese firm San’an Optoelectronics.
Relations with China have become increasingly difficult, these executives are reported to have said, as foreign firms cannot start their own subsidiaries in China but have to do it with local partners in joint ventures, and even then, technology transfers are required, plus foreign firms cannot takeover Chinese firms but are only allowed to buy stakes in them.
Question: if China (to take just one example), has continuously been following its own nationalistic and protectionist policies, why has the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its other member nations allowed it to do so? The rise of nationalism and protectionism, in large part, is a reaction to the failure of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and other nations (U.S. included), to hold China (and others) accountable. We may be at a "tipping point."
• The Globalization Backlash Is Reverberating Through Boardrooms | Harvard Business Review | hbr.org: "Evidence of de-globalization ... is everywhere. This has significant and far-reaching implications for corporate decision making. Boards of directors of global corporations will increasingly face strategic choices and capital allocation decisions framed by mounting geo-political risks. Three trends characterize the environment within which global businesses must contend: rising trade protectionism and a concomitant fall in global trade volumes, declining cross border capital flows, and mounting regulatory requirements. As a practical matter, for example, these changes in the global policy regime are forcing multinational corporations to scale back and sell parts of their international operations. According to the World Trade Organization, international trade this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2007."
• Stock Prices Under Threat as Global Trade Becomes a Pariah | WSJ.com: "... there is worry that the party is ending. “We believe globalization has probably reached its peak,” said Marino Valensise, head of the multiasset team at Barings, a member of the MassMutual Financial Group with $275 billion in assets under management. “The market won’t like it.”"
• Canada Walks Out as EU Trade Talks Founder: "... unable to break a deadlock with a small Belgian region that has been defying multinational efforts to have the pact signed next week."--NYTimes.com. See also EU Leaders Predict Dire Future if EU-Canada Trade Deal Fails: "Fearing final rejection by a small Belgian region, leaders of the European Union warned early Friday that if a free trade deal with a close partner like Canada fails it could mean the end of such agreements with any other country."--NYTimes.com
• Rail rout sending bad signs about the US economy? "On a global level, the school of thought that the health of railroad stocks tracks the health of the overall economy may hold true. "When you think of it from a global macro perspective, we are starting to see some serious cracks in global growth," Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, said Thursday on "Power Lunch." Schlossberg pointed to a miss in industrial production in China this week, a "massive" miss in Australia's employment numbers and central bank leaders' recent warnings about "structural" issues with global trade, referring to recent remarks by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz. "So there are clearly some warning signs out there that I think something is slowing down, whether it just simply pauses and refreshes, or really we're going to start to fall off a cliff; I think is too early to tell," Schlossberg said."--CNBC.com
• Fed risks repeating Lehman blunder, US recession storm gathers: "... The truth is that nobody knows whether this is the start of a sustained reflation cycle, or just the last feeble flicker before America, Europe, and East Asia are swallowed into a deflationary vortex, the frozen circle from which there is no easy exit ..."--telegraph.co.uk
• Amazing Down Spiral of Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDP Now Forecast | : "By now no one even tries to trot out the illusion of hitting “escape velocity” next spring."--WolfStreet.com
• EVs vs Big Oil: A move away from oil as a transportation fuel could send global oil majors, such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total, and Royal Dutch Shell, into an “investor death spiral,” says a new report by Fitch Ratings. Transportation accounts for 55% of oil consumption. “Widespread adoption of battery-powered vehicles is a serious threat to the oil industry ... [and] could tip the oil market from growth to contraction earlier than anticipated.”--FitchRatings.com
• China's Venture Capitalist Local Governments: "Local governments across China are getting into the venture-capital business, deploying a combined 3 trillion yuan as the Communist Party resolves to modernize the economy and reduce debt-fueled spending on infrastructure. The money is meant to spur development of biotechnology, internet and high-end manufacturing companies that can replace the stumbling heavy industries sapping economic growth."--Bloomberg.com
• Q3 2016 financial results coverage this coming week on Domain Mondo:
- Apple AAPL Oct 25 5:00pm EDT
- Neustar NSR Oct 27 4:30pm EDT
- Alphabet GOOG Oct 27 4:30pm EDT
- Verisign VRSN Oct 27 4:30pm EDT
- Twitter TWTR Oct 27 5:00pm EDT
- Amazon AMZN Oct 27 5:30pm EDT
• One More Thing: "Rigged"--Journalists shower Hillary Clinton with campaign cash | Columbia Journalism Review | CJR.org: "New Yorker television critic Emily Nussbaum, a Pulitzer Prize winner, spent the Republican National Convention pen-pricking presidential nominee Donald Trump as a misogynist shyster running an “ugly and xenophobic campaign.” What Nussbaum didn’t disclose: she contributed $250 to Democrat Hillary Clinton in April ..." See also: What WikiLeaks hack says about Clinton: Our view | USAToday.com: "Now we know why she didn't want those Wall Street speeches made public ... Sounding like an ardent free-trader in a 2013 speech, Clinton told one group of bankers: “My dream is a hemispheric common market with open trade.” This was consistent with her stance as secretary of State in 2012, when she praised the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as “the gold standard” of free trade agreements. By 2016, however, Clinton faced populist challenges first from Bernie Sanders and then from Donald Trump. She now opposes the TPP and has few good things to say about free trade ... Clinton had two ways to inoculate herself against any damaging leaks from her Wall Street speeches. One is that she could have released the transcripts months ago, inconvenient as that might have been. The other is that she could have turned down the speaking engagements in the first place ..."
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
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2016-10-17
MacroView: Gradually and Then Suddenly, How Markets & Companies Fail
MacroView Feature • Sometimes you don’t exactly notice how bad things really are. It’s not always as apparent as it would seem.--Sarah Dunn
Gradually and Then Suddenly: In Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, one character asks another how he went bust. The response is a classic: “Two ways, gradually and then suddenly." That's how companies, governments, pension funds, and individuals often fail:
"And it’s how conditions in complex markets shift as well. The underlying circumstances that shape the environment in which you operate can evolve at a snail’s pace, and then shift quickly, either as new actions are introduced, or as the agglomeration of changes reaching a tipping point."--strategy-business.comWilbur Ross: U.S. Recession Likely in Next 18 Months:
Video above published on Oct 14, 2016: Billionaire distressed-debt investor Wilbur Ross, chairman of WL Ross & Co., comments on U.S. financial markets and the possibility of a recession. He speaks during an interview with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Scarlet Fu on "Bloomberg Markets."
 |
| Gradually and then suddenly? |
• Next European bank bombshell: DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach dropped a new name to worry about on the European bank front. He says if “push comes to shove,” the German government will support Deutsche Bank. “But what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”--MarketWatch.com. Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo is matching Credit Suisse’s year-to-date losses. Spain’s Banco Popular is down 60% year-to-date. Gundlach has also said the ECB’s negative-interest-rate policy is running the risk of bankrupting its lenders, and Deutsche is a poster child for this: “You cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system.”
• Rail Freight Gets Clocked from all Sides in this Economy | Wolf Street: "Total US freight rail traffic, as measured in carloads and intermodal units, fell 6.1% in the week ended October 8, from the same week last year, the Association of American Railroads reported today. It was down 10% from the same week two years ago." See also: Freight Rail Traffic Plunges: Haunting Pictures of Transportation Recession | Wolf Street.
• ‘Bulletproof’ Public Pensions | NYTimes.com: "The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers, said Loyalton had 30 days to hand over $1.6 million, more than its entire annual budget, to fund the pensions of its four retirees. Otherwise, Loyalton stood to become the first place in California — perhaps in the nation — where a powerful state retirement system cut retirees’ pensions because their town was a deadbeat." See also The state government pension crisis: You will be made to care | Washington Examiner.
• Chinese Property Owners are in for a Very Rude Awakening, but the Damage Will Reverberate around Globe --WolfStreet.com: "The biggest bubble in history." See also: Wall St. Tumbles After China Trade Report Disappoints | NYTimes.com 13 Oct 2016: "Data showed that China’s exports last month fell 10 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, compared with a 2.8 percent fall in August."
• Starbucks held $1.2 billion in customer funds loaded onto Starbucks cards and its app as of Q1 2016, according to MarketWatch.com based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Starbucks holds more money than some banks hold in deposits. But Starbucks doesn't have to worry about the most powerful man in banking, Fed governor Daniel Tarullo, who heads the Fed’s Committee on Bank Supervision. Tarullo took office at the Fed in 2009 at a moment of broad public support for a more aggressive tack and has pressed that advantage ever since. His influence ranges over everything from corporate strategy to how many billions of dollars banks must maintain in capital. Through the stress tests he championed to evaluate how banks might fare in another market shock, the Fed wields control over whether banks can raise the dividends they pay to shareholders--WSJ.com. See also: “All organizations with sales goals are going to be susceptible to falsified sales records,” said Kane, who worked at Wells Fargo in the 1980s and ’90s before founding Kane Bank Services, which focuses on bank sales practices.--LATimes.com
• Canada’s Big Bet on Fiscal Stimulus Drawing Global Attention: "Trudeau’s move to lean on infrastructure spending to boost growth is regaining currency"--WSJ.com
• Week ahead: U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold their final debate in Las Vegas on October 19, 2016, 9:00-10:30 pm EDT. The moderator is Fox News anchor Chris Wallace, who will question each nominee. Watch LIVE online here. See also: Glenn Greenwald: WikiLeaks Emails Clearly Show Serious Media Impropriety | Mediaite.com and In the Democratic Echo Chamber, Inconvenient Truths Are Recast as Putin Plots | TheIntercept.com by Glenn Greenwald: "... The tactics they [Democrats] are now embracing will endure past the election, making them worthy of scrutiny. Those tactics now most prominently include dismissing away any facts or documents that reflect negatively on their leaders as fake, and strongly insinuating that anyone who questions or opposes those leaders is a stooge or agent of the Kremlin, tasked with a subversive and dangerously un-American mission on behalf of hostile actors in Moscow. To see how extreme and damaging this behavior has become, let’s just quickly examine two utterly false claims that Democrats over the past four days — led by party-loyal journalists — have disseminated and induced thousands of people, if not more, to believe ..." See also: It’s Official: This Election Is Driving Americans Nuts | Bloomberg.com and Most "news" is misinformation | DomainMondo.com.
One more reading recommendation:
• "In order for investors to beat the performance of an index fund they must have a view that is different than the crowd and they must be right about that different view."--A Half Dozen Things I’ve Learned from Robert Cialdini’s book “Influence” | 25iq/com
-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo
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