Stanley Druckenmiller: Macroeconomic Analysis of the Market, Trade and Investing
Interview and Q&A on June 3, 2019, at the Economic Club of New York, with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman & CEO, Duquesne Family Office LLC. Topics covered include current macroeconomic factors and the impact of changes in interest rates, the US-China trade war, and more. Transcript (auto-generated, unedited)(pdf).
We’re getting ready for tonight’s evening program with iconic investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who some have called the greatest hedge fund manager of his time. Join the conversation using #ECNYDruck or tune in to Facebook for the live broadcast at 6pm EDT. pic.twitter.com/w10adNVz0Y
“It’s very clear to me that you need a hurdle rate for investment and that if you don’t have a hurdle rate for investment, bad things happen.” #ECNYDruck
On his economic ideology: “When I got in the business it became clear to me that macroeconomic statistics of precocity the economy, they’re really great at telling where you are and where you’ve been. The best economic predictor is the inside of the stock market.” #ECNYDruck
Federal Reserve Press Release 19 Jun 2019 (pdf): "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum
employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee [FOMC] decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent."
Below are press conference exhibits: 1. unemployment rate; 2. change in real GDP.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Jun 18-19, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell news conference set for Wednesday, June 19 at 2:30 p.m. EDT. S&P expects the Fed to signal at its June policy meeting that it intends to begin cutting rates. Federal funds futures trading had been pricing in two rate cuts before the end of the year, but only a 23% probability of a cut at this June meeting. Donald Trump and Larry Summers agree that rates are too high, inflation too low, yet the Fed is still facing the results of keeping interest rates too low for too long (Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen's QE and ZIRP) the effects of which continue throughout the economy. Background: see previous FOMC press conferences (video) and federalreserve.gov and @federalreserve.
Mario Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the Euro against the Dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others.
Transcript of ECB President Mario Draghi, Jun 18, 2019 (pdf), video below: "... in the absence of improvement such that the (31:26) sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required."
Above video published June 18, 2019 by the ECB: Introductory speech Mario Draghi, President, European Central Bank, ECB Forum on Central Banking 2019--20 Years of European Economic and Monetary Union--Sintra, Portugal, 17-19 June 2019. The European banking system lags far behind its global peers in terms of profitability and valuation (Almost Daily Grant’s, May 28). Bloomberg reports Deutsche Bank A.G. (whose shares have fallen 84% in the last nine years to less than 21% of its year-end 2018 book value) is set for another round of layoffs.
Meanwhile, Facebook just announced it will disrupt the global central banking system using a "New Digital Wallet [Calibra, domain:calibra.com] for a New Digital Currency [Libra, domain: libra.org,]" based on blockchain technology:
Today we’re sharing plans for Calibra, a newly formed Facebook[NASDAQ: FB] subsidiary whose goal is to provide financial services that will let people access and participate in the Libra network. The first product Calibra will introduce is a digital wallet for Libra, a new global currency powered by blockchain technology. The wallet will be available in Messenger, WhatsApp and as a standalone app — and we expect to launch in 2020 ....
For many people around the world, even basic financial services are still out of reach: almost half of the adults in the world don’t have an active bank account and those numbers are worse in developing countries and even worse for women. The cost of that exclusion is high — approximately 70% of small businesses in developing countries lack access to credit and $25 billion is lost by migrants every year through remittance fees. This is the challenge we’re hoping to address with Calibra, a new digital wallet that you’ll be able to use to save, send and spend Libra. From the beginning, Calibra will let you send Libra to almost anyone with a smartphone, as easily and instantly as you might send a text message and at low to no cost.
Charles Evans, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, says the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are still "quite strong," and he sees growth of between 1.75 percent to 2 percent in 2019. CNBC International TV video above published Mar 25, 2019.
Meet our #K9 officers at our Detroit Branch, Gajo and Vice. As you can see, they take their workouts seriously. (Gajo leaps, while Vice rests up.) Stay tuned for more action! #dogsofthefedpic.twitter.com/sDz4L6Z8n0
FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, 2:30pm EDT
FOMC Press Conference LIVEMarch 20, 2019, at 2:30 pm EDT, with the Fed Chair, following FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. Summary: no rate-hikes in 2019, one rate-hike in 2020, and balance sheet normalization ends in September.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
"In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent."--FOMC Press Release, Dec 19, 2018 (pdf). Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles. See also Implementation Note issued December 19, 2018.
FOMC Meeting December 18-19. 2018: The Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Tuesday-Wednesday, December 18-19, 2018. Consensus of economists is that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of between 2.25% and 2.50% and that the Fed's closely-watched dot plot will indicate two rate hikes in 2019. Any indication of the Fed's plans for the future may have an even greater impact on markets and many analysts will closely follow the LIVE press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, at 2:30 p.m. EST, Dec 19, 2018. “Fed drift” is a known market anomaly, where the S&P 500 often generates most of its annual return in the 3 days around Federal Reserve meetings.
On Monday, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach told CNBC-TV that the Federal Reserve should not hike its benchmark overnight lending rate in December. "I think they shouldn't raise them this week. The bond market is basically saying, 'Fed you've got no way you should be raising interest rates," saidGundlach.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
The Federal Reserve (federalreserve.gov) FOMC started its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, and as expected announced another increase in near-term interest rates of 25 basis points [0.25%] on Wednesday, as well as release a Summary of Economic Projections. A press conference by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell scheduled for Wednesday afternoon at approximately 2:30 pm EDT, LIVE here embed above.
The Fed - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) | federalreserve.gov: 2018 Committee Members Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors, Chairman; William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin, Richmond; Raphael W. Bostic, Atlanta; Lael Brainard, Board of Governors; Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland; Randal K. Quarles, Board of Governors; John C. Williams, San Francisco.
A world of central bank divergence | Analysis Review (video above) - The European Central Bank has eased monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to tighten interest rates. The FT’s Martin Wolf and JPMorgan Asset Management’s Stephanie Flanders discuss the implications with Frederick Studemann. Published Dec 10, 2015, by the Financial Times.
On Wednesday, the second day of its FOMC Meeting (15-16 Dec 2015), we will find out (Press Conference 2pm EST) if the U.S. Federal Reserve will finally raise interest rates (for the first time since 2006).
Below: tweets about fed interest rate increase and tweets by @federalreserve:
See also: Why December Is Looking Likelier for the Fed to Raise Interest Rates - The New York Timesand Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide - Bloomberg Business: "... what to look for when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. Economists and traders expect the first interest rate increase since 2006, marking the beginning of the end for the unprecedented era of easy monetary policy. The move would come at a time when a commodity slump is causing the market for high-yield bonds to gyrate, sending tremors through financial conditions indexes and spreading unease across trading desks..."
