Showing posts with label Martin Wolf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Martin Wolf. Show all posts

2018-12-27

Economics 2018: Stock Market Turmoil, Trade Wars, Brexit Uncertainty

2018 in economics: from market turmoil, to trade war and Brexit

Market turmoil, a trade war, a softening global economy, a sputtering Germany, a budget-busting Italian government and Brexit: FT.com's economics commentator Martin Sandbu reviews a tough year in economics. Video above published Dec 21, 2018.
On the other hand, Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, disagrees:
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2016-11-14

MacroView: False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth

MacroView | ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth: As I indicated last week, the week's macro economic event was the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. Here's the final wrap:

October 26, 2015 Bloomberg.com: The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton And Republicans are in denial about it.--False Narrative or Fake News? 

November 5, 2016 The New York Times: Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump’s Winning Map Is Unclear--False Narrative or Fake News? 

I could give literally hundreds more examples--many embedded with much more egregious false narratives or fake news--each with the narrative or message from the establishment media a/k/a MSM (mainstream media) from 2015 through election day, November 8, 2016, that "Hillary Clinton will be the next President." Of course if you were gullible enough to be taken in by the MSM stream of misinformation, the truth of the final results from November 8th, came as a BIG surprise and shock--it didn't turn out at all like MSM had been telling us for over a year it would:


Reference to "Schumer" in the tweet above is to U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the U.S. Senate minority (Democrats) leader when Trump takes office on January 20, 2017.

In retrospect:
1) How did the media get it so wrong? Start here and here.
2) Did the media's constant and lengthy pro-Hillary campaign of disinformation, motivated by misinformed or intentional bias, over the extended period from 2015 through 2016, produce social contagion, influencing some voters to vote for Hillary (vs. Bernie Sanders and vs. Donald Trump) who otherwise would have voted for the other candidate? The answer is most likely yes based on studies of media influence over voters and elections--see this and this. So now it is ironic that the pro-Hillary camp is complaining that somehow Trump's election is due to the power of "fake news" on Facebook. What about the false narratives and fake news in the pro-Hillary mainstream media 2015-16?

•  Rebekah Mercer, Daughter of Major Donor, Named to Trump Role | Bloomberg.com: "Rebekah Mercer, whose wealthy family has sought for years to reshape conservative politics with a populist, anti-establishment message, was named to President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team." The Mercers are also investors in London's CambridgeAnalytica.org, the data and analytics company used by the Trump campaign.

Peter Thiel Joins Trump's Transition Team:

Venture capitalist Peter Thiel will join President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team, a move that solidifies the Facebook  board member’s power and could help Silicon Valley have a say in the next administration. Bloomberg's Cory Johnson reports on "Bloomberg Markets" on Nov 11, 2016.

•  Members of Trump's Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee:
Mike Pence, VP-elect, Presidential Transition Chairman
Vice Chairs:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Dr. Ben Carson
Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich
Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, USA (Ret.)
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions
Other members:
Congressman Lou Barletta
Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi
Congressman Chris Collins
Jared Kushner, Real Estate Developer, Investor & Entrepreneur (Trump's son-in-law)
Congressman Tom Marino
Rebekah Mercer (see above)
Steven Mnuchin (Trump Campaign Finance Chairman and likely next U.S. Secretary of the Treasury)
Congressman Devin Nunes
Anthony Scaramucci (Founder of SkyBridge Capital)
Peter Thiel (Entrepreneur and VC, Board member of Facebook, Inc.)
Donald Trump Jr.
Eric Trump
Ivanka Trump
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Trump's White House chief of staff
Trump Campaign CEO Stephen K. Bannon, to be Trump's chief strategist and senior counselor

•  The "Trump Rally" on Wall Street this past week:
S&P 500 Index
Trump's impact on US economy | FT.com Opinion:

Video above published Nov 10, 2016. Martin Wolf discusses the benefits and risks of Trump's plans to boost U.S. economic growth.


-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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2016-06-25

Day After Brexit Vote Eurocrats Lost, Market Recovery, Path Forward

UPDATE June 30, 2016: London Stock Exchange benchmark FTSE100 still rocketing UP:

 UPDATE June 29, 2016: Contrary to the "Chicken Little" reports from the media and establishment, the FTSE100, the benchmark index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (as measured by market capitalization) has completely recovered and is now higher than before the Brexit vote:
Chart: The London Stock Exchange FTSE100 Comes Roaring Back
The London Stock Exchange FTSE100 Comes Roaring Back (source: google.com)
UPDATE June 26, 2016: Contrary to media reports following the Brexit vote, Reuters reports polling indicates Scots do not favor another referendum on separating from the UK. See also News Review: Brexit ... | DomainMondo.com (June 26, 2016):
"There is a lot more to come in this drama beyond just the voting results. It is now clear that Boris Johnson and David Cameron are "on the same page" and there will be no immediate trigger of Article 50. Instead, the clever British intend to use the leverage of their voter mandate to squeeze the EU aristocracy for concessions that will give the UK almost everything it wants, and a status no other country, in or out of the EU, now has."
Brexit does not make UK 'less European' says Boris Johnson:

Video above: Boris Johnson said Friday the UK vote to leave the EU gives Britons a 'glorious opportunity' to take control over its own taxes and borders. All UK politicians 'should thank British people' who 'did their job' dealing with one of the toughest questions of all time. The EU "was a noble idea for its time; it is no longer right for this country" said Johnson. Published June 24, 2016.

 Brexit fallout? Britain will be fine, but the EU may have reason to worry: 

Ignore the noise, distraction, and hysterics of headlines and cable news. Here's a snapshot of what really happened the day after the Brexit vote:

Below is an email sent Friday (June 24, 2016) by the CEO of a major global company headquartered in London to all employees following the EU referendum vote in the UK on Thursday to withdraw from the European Union:
Dear Colleagues, I am writing to share some immediate thoughts in the light of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. These are clearly uncertain times for the UK and for Europe. _____’s view throughout the campaign was that the UK was better off within the EU. Of course we fully respect the democratic decision that has been taken and, for _____, we will now focus on forging a successful path in a new context. _____ is in a strong position. More than half of our revenues are from the US, in dollars. We have a solid balance sheet with low debt, and this will enable us to weather uncertainties. Although we care deeply about the UK, we are the world’s _____ company. We will continue to be advocates for a world that is more open and connected. It is vital that the UK’s world class universities should continue to attract the brightest young people from around the world to enrich our _____ community. For now, the important thing for us all is to stay focused on our business and our customers. We will take our time and work through every implication of our business and our growth. We will also will play our part in helping maintain the outward-looking United Kingdom and globally connected _____ community that are in the interests of us all. (emphasis added)
Markets' reactions (from Thursday close to Friday close--see charts below):
FTSE100 (UK): -2.71%
SP500 (US): -3.58%
DAX (Germany): -6.69%
CAC40 (France): -7.85%
Clockwise: Benchmark Stock Market Indexes for UK (FTSE100), France (CAC40), Germany (DAX) and US (S&P500)
Week of June 20-24, 2016 (source: google.com)
Clearly, the French and German markets took a much harder tumble, while the markets in London showed resilience and recovery by the end of the market close on Friday. Investors have reason to worry about the European Union (EU). The EU has a lot of problems that will only be worse without the UK--problems that are not going to go away--long-term economic decline, aging populations, fiscal and monetary issues and economic imbalances caused by the single currency (euro), and a continuing refugee crisis. Is it any wonder that Switzerland formally withdrew its long-dormant application to become a member of the EU last week? Haughty Eurocrats may regret their undermining David Cameron's campaign to "Remain."

Much is yet to be done, and as economist Martin Wolf says in the video below, Britain, the world's 5th biggest economy, is the most important market for the Eurozone. As for Wolf's reference to the "consequences of uncertainty," remember what Warren Buffett says:

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.”

Note accordingly, Martin Wolf's reference to investors snatching up assets in the UK:


Video above published by FT.com on June 24, 2016 - Brexit: Economist Martin Wolf  - economic forecast | FT Comment.

See also on Domain Mondo:

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2016-01-27

Martin Wolf on China Capital Controls (videos)

UPDATE 27 Jan 2016: Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index closes at 2735.56, DOWN -47% from its June 12, 2015 close of 5166.35:
Shanghai Composite Index
Shanghai Composite Index (source: google.com)


Martin Wolf on China capital controls | FT World - FT chief economics commentator Martin Wolf on whether China should tighten its capital controls to stem huge outflows of money, and the challenges posed by market turmoil and its slowing economy. Published on Jan 26, 2016



Published on Apr 8, 2015 - Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, talks to the FT's Michael Skapinker about China’s economic slowdown and whether there is still reason to be optimistic about its prospects.




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2016-01-25

World Economic Forum, Davos, 2016: Martin Wolf, Economy, Tech (videos)



Martin Wolf on Davos economic outlook | FT Comment - Global growth, stock market volatility dominated discussion - Despite January being one of the most turbulent months on record for markets, delegates at the World Economic Forum are optimistic about the global economy. The FT's Martin Wolf explains why. Published Jan 24, 2016



Davos 2016 – all about tech | FT Comment - Technology companies had a huge presence at this year’s World Economic Forum. FT European technology correspondent Murad Ahmed explains how tech companies were greeted and how the industry was featured at debates in Davos. Published Jan 23, 2016



What did FT writers make of this year's meeting? 'Mastering the Fourth Industrial Revolution' was the theme of this year's World Economic Forum in Davos. As the meeting came to an end, FT writers provided their verdict on the key issues and highlights. Published Jan 24, 2016

See also on Domain Mondo:




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2015-12-16

Return to Normality? FED Set To Raise Rates for First Time Since 2006

UPDATE: DomainMondo.com: Breaking: FED FOMC Rate Hike of 0.25, Press Conference 2:30 pm EST




A world of central bank divergence | Analysis Review (video above) - The European Central Bank has eased monetary policy while the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to tighten interest rates. The FT’s Martin Wolf and JPMorgan Asset Management’s Stephanie Flanders discuss the implications with Frederick Studemann. Published Dec 10, 2015, by the Financial Times.

On Wednesday, the second day of its FOMC Meeting (15-16 Dec 2015), we will find out (Press Conference 2pm EST) if the U.S. Federal Reserve will finally raise interest rates (for the first time since 2006).

Below: tweets about fed interest rate increase and tweets by @federalreserve:




 See on Domain Mondo:
See also: Why December Is Looking Likelier for the Fed to Raise Interest Rates - The New York Times and

 Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide - Bloomberg Business: "... what to look for when the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement at 2 p.m. Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. Economists and traders expect the first interest rate increase since 2006, marking the beginning of the end for the unprecedented era of easy monetary policy. The move would come at a time when a commodity slump is causing the market for high-yield bonds to gyrate, sending tremors through financial conditions indexes and spreading unease across trading desks..."

Note:  Press release and press conference | Wednesday afternoon, December 16, 2015.
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