President Trump Fires FBI Director Comey, Markets Rally, Media Shocked!

Photo of the Charging Bull in New York City's Financial District by Sam valadi (CC BY 2.0)

UPDATE  May 15, 2017:  Trump's Bulls Charge, Bears Trapped!  The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both closed at records Monday and the Dow industrials snapped a four-session losing streak to finish higher, the TRUMP Rally continues:

See  also Trump agenda getting delayed would be biggest risk to the market | CNBC.com.

Original post:

S&P 500 (5 day chart as of May 10, 2017)

Opinion and Analysis

Let’s look at the way US equity markets responded on Wednesday [May 10] to the Tuesday [May 9] news of President Trump firing FBI Director James Comey:

On Wednesday, the next day, the S&P 500 rallied 0.11% (see above chart), the NASDAQ was up 0.14%, and the CBOE VIX Index barely moved back over 10, to close at 10.2. In the words of one seasoned Wall Street analyst: "If you hadn’t read the headlines for 24 hours, you wouldn’t have known anything unusual had happened in Washington or anywhere else."

Conclusion: The media's 'Trump Derangement Syndrome'  so prevalent within the reality distortion field known as "Washington, D.C.," hasn't infected Wall Street (nor Main Street). Most Americans, thankfully, are immune and are either ignoring or laughing at the mainstream media circus which has now reached unprecedented proportions.

Bottomline: Comey should have been fired by Obama last year after the stunt Comey pulled in connection with the Clinton email investigation. The last thing the U.S. needs is another rogue FBI director like J. Edgar Hoover. Trump did the right thing in following the advice and recommendation (pdf) of the Deputy Attorney General and the Attorney General of the United States, respectively.

To the disbelief and dismay of the liberal media, the Dems and elitists, Trump owns this market and the Trump Bull Rally is still running on Wall Street:

The TRUMP Rally

Photo courtesy of WhiteHouse.gov

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Fed Rate Hike, Brexit, Dutch & French Elections: The Path Forward (videos)

Fed's Rate Path in Focus Now That March Is Certain

Video above published Mar 14, 2017, by Bloomberg.com:  The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day meeting on Tuesday with markets 100 percent convinced the Fed will raise interest rates. Now the question becomes, how the Fed's rate path may progress from here. Bloomberg's Matthew Boesler is joined by Greg Peters, senior portfolio manager at PGIM, on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

U.K.'s May Says Brexit Bill Becomes Law in 'Coming Days'

Video above published Mar 14, 2017, by Bloomberg.com: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May announced in a statement before the House of Commons that she is on track to trigger Brexit by the end of the month and her Brexit bill will become law within the "coming days."

Dutch Election: Why It Matters

Video above published on Mar 13, 2017: After Brexit and Donald Trump, will the Netherlands be next to upset the status quo? The Dutch are heading to the polls on March 15, and the election is seen as an important test for the future of the European Union. WSJ.com's Niki Blasina reports.

See also: Netherlands Vote Wednesday: Analyzing the Turkey Effect; How Many Parties Will Take to Form A Coalition? | MishTalk: "Don’t Hold Your Breath"

UPDATE 15 Mar 2017: exit polls show Rutte controlling 31 seats, 10 fewer than his party won in the 2012, while 3 parties each won 19: pro-EU center party D66, Christian Democrat CDA, and Wilders' Party for Freedom. Rutte has said he would not rule with Wilders, so the question becomes how he can acquire the necessary 75-seat coalition, which may take months of talks before a new government can be formed.

Meanwhile the latest news about the coming French election: French presidential candidate Francois Fillon charged with misuse of public funds (video) one day before his scheduled questioning in the matter, reports Bloomberg's Mark Barton on "Bloomberg Markets."

Why Robert Shiller Is Worried About the Trump Rally | Bloomberg.com: "Ethan Harris, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s global economist in New York. Like the fable of the boy who cried wolf, Harris says pessimistic forecasters have so badly over-estimated the consequences of big events -- the rolling European debt crisis since 2010, the U.S. debt-ceiling standoff in 2011, Brexit in 2016 -- that traders have become conditioned to ignore them."

"Shiller says when markets are as buoyant as they are now, resisting the urge to pile in is hard regardless of what else might be happening in society. “I was tempted to do it, too,” he says. “Trump keeps talking about a new spirit for America and so you could (A) believe that or (B) you could believe that other investors believe that.” On whether stocks are nearing a top, Shiller can’t say with any certainty. He’s loathe to make short-term forecasts."

Caveat Emptor!

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ICANN58 | Copenhagen | Info & Links

MacroView: A Political Assassination, Yet Major Indexes' 5th Record Close

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”--Warren Buffett

Domain Mondo's review of  macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • Political Assassination, Yet Major Indexes' 5th Record Close:

•  Major U.S. stock market indices continued their extended Trump Rally run on Wednesday, February 15, 2017: Stocks set another round of records as Trump pledges ‘massive’ tax plan | MarketWatch.com: "Major indexes see record close for 5th session in row"--

S&P 500 Index up 8.6% Nov 9, 2016-Feb 15, 2017 (source: google.com)

Nevertheless count me out--alarms are going off--is anyone listening?

The Political Assassination of Michael Flynn | Bloomberg.com: "... it's strange that Flynn's "lie" to Pence would get him fired. It doesn't add up ... In the end, it was Trump's decision to cut Flynn loose. In doing this he [Trump] caved in to his political and bureaucratic opposition. Nunes told me Monday night that this will not end well. "First it's Flynn, next it will be Kellyanne Conway, then it will be Steve Bannon, then it will be Reince Priebus," he said. Put another way, Flynn is only the appetizer. Trump is the entree."

•  Americans Just Broke the Psychologists’ Stress Record | Bloomberg.com: "A national survey of anxiety finds a statistically significant increase for the first time since it was launched in 2007."

•  S&P 500 Hits Record $20 Trillion Market Cap As Warning Signs Mount | SeekingAlpha.com

•  Inflation Alarms Expose Vulnerability in Richly Priced S&P 500 | Bloomberg.com

•  Goldman Warns of China Economy Risks During Year of the Rooster | Bloomberg.com: "... economists warn that a push to rein in cheap loans will weigh on key sectors such as housing. Officials are trying to keep a lid on frothy house prices without harming the wider economy, where growth remains heavily reliant on government spending. The scale of the lending boom was laid bare in data Tuesday ..."

•  Trump and Markets: ".... we are in the business of managing assets, and politics impact that business whether we like it or not. We still have a cash reserve, but it is smaller than before, and we are mostly back in the markets and watching the rally extend itself. Our positions could change at any time."--David R. Kotok, writing on ritholtz.com Feb 8, 2017.  See also It's Worse Than Bush Derangement Syndrome | RealClearPolitics.com: the dreaded mental disorder known as Trump Derangement Syndrome -- a/k/a TDS.

And I haven't even gotten to Europe and its myriad problems--Caveat Emptor!

Also, it's not just Trump and the Republicans and Democrats and media in D.C.:
•  How Democrats broke Illinois, a state beyond hope--read Special Report: The man behind the fiscal fiasco in Illinois | reuters.com, excerpt--"... As [Illinois House of Representatives] speaker for all but two years since 1983, Madigan has directed the fate of key pension, labor and tax laws. As state Democratic Party chairman since 1998, he has shaped the fortunes of his allies and stymied opponents ... Madigan’s Illinois is the state that doesn’t work. The speaker is one of America’s most powerful politicians, presiding over arguably its most dysfunctional state capital. Illinois is beyond broke. It is the first state in eight decades to go without an annual budget, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Its bond ratings, the lowest of any state, are near junk status. It is projected to have a budget deficit this fiscal year of $5.3 billion and owes vendors about $10.8 billion in unpaid bills ..." (emphasis added).

This could all get ugly, real fast.

One Last Thing: If nothing else, invest like you would Ride Downhill on a Bicycle | NYTimes.com: The bike follows your vision, so look where you wish to go, scanning the road ahead so you will have time to prepare and glide calmly past obstructions.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 
This may be the last MacroView posting (at least for awhile), I need a respite from all the drama and insanity right now in D.C. Full disclosure: At present I'm out of the stock market and have no intention in the short term of getting back in, but for index funds and Berkshire Hathaway.

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MacroView: Three Weeks In, 'Trump Team USA' Is Clearly Winning

Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  Ignore the MSM noise, fake news, and click bait; take off your NYTimes-WaPo goggles, and take another look: with just 3 weeks under their belt, Trump Team USA is clearly winning despite some "rookie mistakes"--

•  Majority in US Now Optimistic About Job Market | Gallup.com: "For the first time since Gallup began tracking the question in 2001, a majority of Americans (54%) say it is a "good time" to find a quality job."

•  Daily Presidential Tracking Poll | RasmussenReports.com Friday, February 10, 2017: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

•  “We support the [Trump] Administration’s policies to level the global playing field and make U.S. manufacturing competitive worldwide through new regulatory standards and investment policies.”--Intel CEO Brian Krzanich in an email to Intel employees.--Intel and Trump tout new $7 billion investment to create 10000 jobs | TheHill.com: Intel Corp. announced a $7 billion investment Wednesday [Feb 8, 2017] that the company projects will create 10,000 new jobs. The company will use the $7 billion to complete its Fab 42 factory in Chandler, Arizona, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich said at a meeting at the White House with President Trump. Krzanich said the decision to make the announcement with the White House was borne out of Intel’s support for Trump’s economic and trade policies.

•  Trump will get all of his Cabinet picks confirmed despite the dysfunction, obstruction, and delay tactics of "loser" Democrats on Capitol Hill.

•  Wall Street hits records again, boosted by Trump economy hopes | Reuters.com:

The Trump Rally extends its run: DJIA and S&P 500 Index (source: google.com)

•  Despite manifold predictions and chatter among Trump's critics and doomsayers inside the beltway and the coastal bubbles, this new administration hasn't come close to the disasters of other new first term Presidents. Want some facts? John F. Kennedy took office on January 20, 1961. Only 74 days after taking office, President Kennedy approved, on April 4, 1961, the CIA's disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion plan. The resulting damage to U.S. prestige globally, and foreign relations with Cuba and beyond, has now lasted for generations, but MSM doesn't want you to remember that. Journalist Glenn Greenwald nails it including the current MSM mindset:

The number of people who instantly believe every anonymous evidence-free claim from Intel community & treat it as Fact is genuinely alarming

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 12, 2017

Big portion of US "news": 1) IC anonymously dumps what it wants to public; 2) media outlets oblige, get clicks; 3) believe what feels good

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) February 10, 2017

•  Dear Europe re: NATO--Trump says US taxpayers no longer willing to be EU's paying patsy--NATO's target for all of  NATO's 28 member states is that defense spending equal 2 per cent of each member state's economic output. At present, only the US, UK, Estonia, Poland and Greece meet the target (even NATO member Canada falls short!). One accounting shows Germany should spend $30 billion more each year, Italy $18 billion, Spain $16 billion, and France $6 billion. One problem: increases in defense spending for many EU nations would put them in violation of EU budgetary rules, which means EU members may have to re-allocate their spending to meet NATO's target, perhaps cutting their contributions to the EU budget?--more at FT.com.

•  Chaos and confusion in the EU as "kicking the can" and "extend and pretend" nears the end, and Poland and other nations demand an overhaul of the European Union.

• Italy’s Banking Crisis Is Even Worse Than We Thought | WolfStreet.com: "The country’s Five Star Movement is gaining momentum both in the polls and in its efforts to call for a referendum on euro membership."
• Global Shipping Meltdown Mauls German Banks, Retail Investors, Taxpayers | WolfStreet.com: Germany holds 25% of global shipping loans as industry collapses.

•  At least the UK hasn't floundered and is on track for Brexit, even UK Prime Minister May is now "prepared to walk away from the European Union (EU) without a deal"-- 

British House of Commons gives green light to Brexit process:

Video above published by FT.com Feb 9, 2017.

Brexit's impact on U.K. banks?

Diamond on Brexit: "The challenge is more for Europe than it is for the UK." Video above published Feb 10, 2017, by FoxBusiness.com: Atlas Merchant Capital CEO and former Barclays CEO Bob Diamond on Brexit, European banking, Atlas Merchant's strategy and the shift of regional banks to a more local focus rather than a global focus.

Who's Afraid of Brexit?  According to a PwC study, the UK's economy is set to grow faster than any other major advanced economy up until 2050, even if the UK takes a significant financial hit as a result of its exit from the European Union:

source: Statista

Trump and the ‘One China’ policy

US President Donald Trump has told Chinese president Xi Jinping that he will respect the “One China” policy, in his first conversation with the Chinese leader since entering the Oval Office. The move is expected to ease tensions between the two powers. Video above published by FT.com Feb 10, 2017.

•  It's Not Just Trump Derangement Syndrome affecting Coastal Bubble Elites and MSM: Some investors [and news media] really are this stupid | evidenceinvestor.co.uk: "The Super Bowl Indicator is, of course, complete and utter nonsense. But that still hasn’t stopped at least half a dozen semi-respectable media outlets in the United States discussing its significance over the last few days."

One More Thing: 

"If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants.”--Friedrich von Hayek, Nobel Prize Lecture 1974

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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MacroView: False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth

Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  False Narratives, Fake News, Trump's Win, The Truth: As I indicated last week, the week's macro economic event was the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. Here's the final wrap:

October 26, 2015 Bloomberg.com: The Most Likely Next President Is Hillary Clinton And Republicans are in denial about it.--False Narrative or Fake News? 

November 5, 2016 The New York Times: Clinton Has Solid Lead in Electoral College; Trump’s Winning Map Is Unclear--False Narrative or Fake News? 

I could give literally hundreds more examples--many embedded with much more egregious false narratives or fake news--each with the narrative or message from the establishment media a/k/a MSM (mainstream media) from 2015 through election day, November 8, 2016, that "Hillary Clinton will be the next President." Of course if you were gullible enough to be taken in by the MSM stream of misinformation, the truth of the final results from November 8th, came as a BIG surprise and shock--it didn't turn out at all like MSM had been telling us for over a year it would:

Donald Trump wins the presidency in stunning upset over Clinton https://t.co/iNz2uqswwd

— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 9, 2016

What's coming is seismic. A largely non-ideological populist dealmaker who's running a party in full control https://t.co/kuFqM6LmS8

— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 10, 2016

While Ryan-McConnell link w/ Trump is crucial to coming years, most Rs say Schumer-Trump is perhaps most impt relationship in DC.

— Robert Costa (@costareports) November 10, 2016

Reference to "Schumer" in the tweet above is to U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the U.S. Senate minority (Democrats) leader when Trump takes office on January 20, 2017.

In retrospect:
1) How did the media get it so wrong? Start here and here.
2) Did the media's constant and lengthy pro-Hillary campaign of disinformation, motivated by misinformed or intentional bias, over the extended period from 2015 through 2016, produce social contagion, influencing some voters to vote for Hillary (vs. Bernie Sanders and vs. Donald Trump) who otherwise would have voted for the other candidate? The answer is most likely yes based on studies of media influence over voters and elections--see this and this. So now it is ironic that the pro-Hillary camp is complaining that somehow Trump's election is due to the power of "fake news" on Facebook. What about the false narratives and fake news in the pro-Hillary mainstream media 2015-16?

•  Rebekah Mercer, Daughter of Major Donor, Named to Trump Role | Bloomberg.com: "Rebekah Mercer, whose wealthy family has sought for years to reshape conservative politics with a populist, anti-establishment message, was named to President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team." The Mercers are also investors in London's CambridgeAnalytica.org, the data and analytics company used by the Trump campaign.

Peter Thiel Joins Trump's Transition Team:

Venture capitalist Peter Thiel will join President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition team, a move that solidifies the Facebook  board member’s power and could help Silicon Valley have a say in the next administration. Bloomberg's Cory Johnson reports on "Bloomberg Markets" on Nov 11, 2016.

•  Members of Trump's Presidential Transition Team Executive Committee:
Mike Pence, VP-elect, Presidential Transition Chairman
Vice Chairs:
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Dr. Ben Carson
Former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich
Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, USA (Ret.)
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
U.S. Senator Jeff Sessions
Other members:
Congressman Lou Barletta
Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn
Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi
Congressman Chris Collins
Jared Kushner, Real Estate Developer, Investor & Entrepreneur (Trump's son-in-law)
Congressman Tom Marino
Rebekah Mercer (see above)
Steven Mnuchin (Trump Campaign Finance Chairman and likely next U.S. Secretary of the Treasury)
Congressman Devin Nunes
Anthony Scaramucci (Founder of SkyBridge Capital)
Peter Thiel (Entrepreneur and VC, Board member of Facebook, Inc.)
Donald Trump Jr.
Eric Trump
Ivanka Trump
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, Trump's White House chief of staff
Trump Campaign CEO Stephen K. Bannon, to be Trump's chief strategist and senior counselor

•  The "Trump Rally" on Wall Street this past week:

S&P 500 Index

Trump's impact on US economy | FT.com Opinion:

Video above published Nov 10, 2016. Martin Wolf discusses the benefits and risks of Trump's plans to boost U.S. economic growth.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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