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Showing posts with label us. Show all posts

2019-07-06

Tech Review 1) Why Jony Ive Chose To Leave Apple, 2) Big Tech & Profits

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2019-07-06)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) Why Jony Ive Chose To Leave Apple, 2) Big Tech: Do Profits Really Matter? 3) Investing: The Week & Investor NotesChina & Huawei, Eurozone Japanification, US Pension Crisis & Federal Debt, 4) ICYMI Tech News: WTF Apple? Amazon, Broadcom, Antitrust, Google, and more.
UPDATE Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DBbites the bulletradical transformationnew leadershipcuts 18,000 jobs. 
1) Why Jony Ive Chose To Leave Apple

Jony Ive will leave Apple later this year to start a new venture of his own, called LoveFrom, with Apple as his first client. No one will be taking Jony Ive's title, Chief Design Officer, a position at the center of 20 years of product development at Apple, when he leaves, says the FT.com's technology correspondent Tim Bradshaw, who talks about his exclusive interview with Jony Ive in the video above published June 28, 2019.
"To create something that's genuinely new, you have to start again and I think with great intent, you disconnect from the past."--Jony Ive
Editor's note:  Why did Jony Ive choose to leave Apple? He simply wanted to do something new.

See also: Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook on Monday fiercely disputed a WSJ report about the departure of Jony Ive and the company's ability to uphold its commitment to innovative design.

2) Big Tech: do profits really matter?

Why are loss-making tech companies still attracting investors who are willing to wait for companies to turn a profit? FT.com video published July 1, 2019.

Note also re: fracking technology: “I'm not aware of another case of a disruptive technological change that has done so much harm to the industry that created the change ... While hundreds of billions of dollars of benefits have accrued to hundreds of millions of people, the amount of shareholder value destruction registers in the hundreds of billions of dollars ... The industry is self-destructive.”--Steve Schlotterbeck, former chief executive of EQT, a shale gas giant, at a petrochemicals conference in Pittsburgh. Editor's note: and this doesn't even begin to address  fracking's health and environmental issues.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite +1.9% | S&P 500 Index +1.7% | DJIA +1.2%
Stocks finished slightly lower on Friday, backing away from all-time highs hit earlier this week, after a better-than-expected employment report in June partially rolled back investors' expectations for multiple rate cuts this year.
I Just Hope the Fed Doesn’t See This Jobs Report--wolfstreet.com. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 224,000 in June, well above market expectations of 165,000, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.7% (300,000 people entered the labor force looking for work and therefore counted as unemployed), but was still near 50-year lows. Wage growth was 3.1% year over year.
Goldman Sachs' explanation on why there is now a "bull market in almost everything"--"monetary policy" remains the main driver of risk appetite and expectations are now very bullish.

Global hedge fund liquidations exceeded launches for the third consecutive quarter as managers faced a tough capital-raising environment. About 213 funds closed in the first three months of this year, compared with 136 that opened--bloomberg.com. Editor's note: why pay the high fees?
Investor Notes: 
China: "The Huawei battle reflects a fundamental geostrategic shift in Washington. For decades, the U.S. foreign policy establishment assumed Beijing would evolve into a cooperative partner in the rules-based, American-led international order that did so much to foster China's boom. That hope has evaporated. Now, the United States sees China as an adversary determined to challenge American leadership in technology and innovation. President Donald Trump has launched a trade war against Beijing and is boosting defense spending. Huawei is cast as a Chinese standard-bearer in that struggle."--Special Report | reuters.com See also:

EU: The Eurozone’s Japanification--with the eurozone economy stuck in a low growth, low inflation and low rates environment, it's really hard not to make 'Japanification' comparisons. If we're honest, the eurozone is probably already in the thick of it, which means rates are likely to remain lower for longer and every new crisis or recession will bring the bloc closer to more Japanification--ing.com. See also French Bond Yields Slide Below Zero, Hit All Time Record Lows and Deutsche Bank's Restructuring Plan To Cost Staggering €5 Billion--zerohedge.com; German prosecutors are escalating a money laundering inquiry involving Deutsche Bank, including planned raids on wealthy former clients, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told reuters.com.
There is the ongoing economic misery across Europe. Most of the economy remains stalled – and there are signs it could get worse ...  I am not anti-European, but I think it’s about to go through a slow implosion. There is an increasing likelihood Europe becomes largely detached and delinked from the US and other Occidental economies, and irrelevant to the growth economies of the Orient. From a trade perspective, I suspect we’d [UK] be better off outside [the European Union]--Bill Blain.
See also  How Does the European Union Work? The EU’s authority has steadily expanded as its members have passed more and more decision-making power to the union--cfr.org. New leaders of the EU / ECB (nominees still need to be debated and ratified by the European Parliament):
  • Ursula von der Leyen, 60, Germany: European Commission President;
  • Charles Michel, 43, Belgium: President of the European Council;
  • Josep Borrell, 72, Spain: EU High Representative (foreign policy);
  • Christine Lagarde, 63, France: European Central Bank President.

U.S. Under the Radar: Pension Crisis Deepens in U.S. as strategies shift, outlooks dim--bloomberg.com. "I can only repeat again and again: There is no solution to the woefully underfunded pensions in Chicago and in Illinois that does not involve benefit cuts subsequent to a 2020 constitutional amendment or municipal bankruptcy.  And the sooner Pritzker and Lightfoot figure that out, the better off we’ll all be."--wirepoints.orgNote alsosoaring federal debt "poses substantial risks for the nation" warns Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
WTF Apple? Apple Moves Mac Pro Production to China--the $6,000 desktop computer had been the company’s only major device assembled in the U.S.--wsj.com. See also Electronics exodus from China--HP and Dell plan to shift up to 30% of notebook production out of China; Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Sony, Nintendo also want to move some production--nikkei.com.

Airbnb is among IPOs investors are anticipating in the second half of 2019--CNBC (video).

Broadcom In Advanced Talks to Acquire Symantec--another software acquisition by CEO Tan?

Antitrust: Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) representing Walmart, Target, Best Buy, others writes to FTC (pdf) about tech giant dominance, offering help with antitrust probes, and calls out Amazon and Google. 

Amazon & Product Liability: 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals (2-1) rules customers can sue Amazon when they buy defective products from its platform, even if Amazon did not make those products.

What's left to monetize? It appears the answer is "very little."--blogspot.com--"Advertising has always monetized consumers' time and attention, what we call engagement today. Big Tech has generated billions of dollars by monetizing other forms of engagement and privately owned capital/assets. Google has monetized web search ... AirBNB has monetized privately owned or leased homes and flats ..."

Early front-runners to regulate Libra are FINMA (Switzerland) and BOE (UK): "The long-run success of Libra critically depends on finding a nation with financial gravitas willing to provide Libra-friendly rules."--seekingalpha.com.

Ireland-based cryptocurrency exchange Bitsane has apparently vanished, taking as many as 246,000 users’ crypto deposits with it.--zerohedge.com.

Personal Tech: Surviving a SIM swap attack | zdnet.com--"Turns out, the attack was likely driven by a Coinbase account I experimented with in early 2018 that was never closed." See also The Motherboard Guide to Not Getting Hacked.

-- John Poole, EditorDomain Mondo

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2019-05-31

US Government vs Julian Assange & WikiLeaks (video)

Julian Assange & WikiLeaks

Julian Assange rose from a post-college hacker to launching WikiLeaks, and in so doing became one of the most influential people in the world. Bloomberg.com video above published May 24, 2019.

"Regarding the Julian Assange case, Glenn Greenwald makes an important point, that as a First Amendment question, it does not matter whether Assange is a journalist"--NationalReview.com. See also @DefendAssange.
Domain: wikileaks.org


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2019-02-09

Tech Review: 1) Why Apple Is Losing In India, 2) Amazon $AMZN Alarm?

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2019-02-09)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news: Features • 1) Why Apple $AAPL Is Losing In India, 2)  Amazon $AMZN Analysts Alarmed? 3) Investing: The Week & Notes: EU, Eurozone, France, Italy, US, China, 4) ICYMI Tech News: Boeing, Microsoft, Go-Jek, Foxconn & Amazon HQ2, Zucked (Facebook), Quantum Fiber, Amazon, Google, Visma.

1) Why Apple $AAPL Is Losing In India

Why Apple Lags Behind Samsung And Xiaomi In India

Why is Apple $AAPL struggling to reach one of the fastest growing smartphone markets in the world?

In the fourth quarter of 2018, Apple reported selling about 47 million iPhones worldwide. But Apple is still struggling to make a dent in India, where high import duties and price-sensitive consumers have resulted in weak sales. Apple began selling iPhones in India more than ten years ago but is still struggling in the world's second-largest smartphone market.

According to research firm Counterpoint (counterpointresearch.com) data, Samsung and Xiaomi led in smartphone sales in India in the third quarter of 2018, with 22 percent and 27 percent of the smartphone market, respectively. In the same period, Apple made up only about one percent of India's smartphone market share, behind Chinese phone makers Vivo and Oppo. CNBC.com video above published Jan 29, 2019.

See also:
  • Global Smartphone Market Declines for The First Time in CY 2018--Q4 2018 Smartphone Shipments Decline 7%; Fifth Consecutive Quarter of Smartphone Decline--Chinese Players HOVX (Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi) Continue to Defy Market Decline Ending the Year with Positive Growth--counterpointresearch.com Feb 1, 2019.
  • 5 Takeaways from Apple’s Q4 2018 Earnings Call--counterpointresearch.com Jan 30, 2019: "... Lastly, we might see a strong push from Apple into the health and wellness space in the future ..."

2) Amazon $AMZN Analysts Alarmed?

Amazon $AMZN delivered its third consecutive record quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of  2018 but raised alarm among some analysts with a cautious first-quarter sales forecast. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Feb 1, 2019.

But here is a counterview:

Amazon revenue growth shows strength across the business, analyst says--Christopher Rossbach, chief investment officer at J. Stern & Co, discusses Amazon's latest quarterly earnings report.--CNBC International TV video published Feb 1, 2019.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite +0.47% | S&P 500 Index +0.05% | DJIA +0.17%
Wall Street's Charging Bull
graphic of Charging Bull | DomainMondo.com
Investing Notes: EU, Eurozone, France -- 'Gilets Jaunes'
France’s 'Gilets Jaunes' or ‘Yellow Vest’ movement originally formed over planned fuel tax rises in November 2018. French President Emmanuel Macron has scrapped the tax hike, but demonstrations have continued and even spread to other countries. CNBC International video above published Jan 31, 2019.

See also:
  • Big cash holdings in Europe signal unease over stock market outlook--euronews.com.
  • The Eurozone is at risk of renewed crisis in 2019, and this time it’s all about Italy--cityam.com: "French and German banks have massive exposure to Italian sovereign debt ... Italy already accounts for a quarter of all Eurozone bad debt." 
  • Italy in recession amid sluggish eurozone--bbc.com. Eurozone Growth Slows Sharply to 1.8% in 2018--novinite.com.
  • US jobs growth surges but more disappointing data for Eurozone--independent.ie.
  • China "experiencing probable economic stagnation and internal decay"--theatlantic.com.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
  • Boeing goes bionic to roll out more Dreamliners--reuters.com: "Melding humans with robots."
  • How do you turn around the culture of a 130,000-person company? Ask Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella--qz.com.
  • Go-Jek raises $1 billion in round led by Google, Tencent, JD.com--reuters.com.
  • The Foxconn & Amazon HQ2 sagas: bidding wars to attract private employers create a dilemma for politicians, often promoted without any real cost-benefit analysis. Interstate competition in tax giveaways "is not an overall winner for taxpayers"--dashofinsight.com.
  • Zucked, "a book by early Facebook investor Roger McNamee, details Facebook's damage to society, the dystopia it created, and advocates breaking up its monopoly"--NYTimes.com.
  • A fiber-optic cable that harnesses the power of quantum mechanics to protect critical banking data from potential spies--bloombergquint.com and quantumxc.com.
  • Amazon spent $1.65B on acquisitions in 2018, including Ring and PillPack--geekwire.com.
  • Google announces Live Transcribe, a near-real time transcriber, and Sound Amplifier--theverge.com.
  • China hacked Norway's Visma to steal client secrets--reuters.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2018-11-27

Goldman Sachs Global Economic Outlook 2019 (video)

Global Economic Outlook 2019

Goldman Sachs (goldmansachs.com): the global economy looks poised to slow moderately from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by deceleration in the US and further softening in China. But with growth still above potential in most developed economies, Goldman Sachs Research expects continued labor market tightening, gradually rising core inflation, and in many cases higher policy rates. Video above published Nov 20, 2018.

Read the Report: 
Global Economic Outlook 2019: Landing the Plane - 19 Nov 2018 | GoldmanSachs.com


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2018-11-03

Tech Review: 1) Mobile's Future Is 5G, 2) Amazon HQ2's Front-Runners

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2018-11-03)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Mobile's Future Is 5G, 2) Amazon HQ2's Front-Runners, 3) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes,  4) ICYMI Tech News: Apple, Baidu, Amazon, Monzo, China..

1) Mobile's Future Is 5G

5G is a new, faster network with the potential to completely transform the internet and the world.

What is 5G?

2) Amazon HQ2's Front-Runners

Amazon's search for its second headquarters, HQ2, has created a bidding war between cities and states worth billions. These kinds of tax incentives have a long history in the United States, but experts question their efficacy. Economic development experts say that wherever Amazon decides to bring its HQ2 will also bring along new businesses, skilled workers and higher real estate prices. Amazon has narrowed its list twice and is expected to deliver its decision by the end of the year.

Some locations, like Miami and Washington D.C.-area cities, have reportedly had follow-up visits from Amazon in recent months, while cities like Raleigh, N.C. have not, the Wall Street Journal has reported. Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Oct 25, 2018. CNBC.com video below published Oct 25, 2018. The shortlist of the 20 locations still in the running is at amazon.com/hq2.

UPDATE Nov 4: Amazon in late-stage talks with several cities including Crystal City, VA (Metro DC), Dallas, New York for HQ2, and may place smaller operations in runner-up cities--wsj.com.

Is Amazon HQ2 A Bad Gamble For Cities?

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite +2.7% | S&P 500 Index +2.4% | DJIA +2.4%
The [U.S.] economy is in great shape with lots of jobs and more money in workers’ paychecks"--Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.
"Apple is a ‘buybuybuy’ right now, and other FAANG stocks are bargains too"--MarketWatch.com Opinion, Nov 2, 2018.
Wall Street's Charging Bull
graphic of Charging Bull | DomainMondo.com
Investing Notes: End of an Era in Germany

Angela Merkel’s decision to stand down as leader of the Christian Democratic Union and not run again as chancellor in 2021 ushers in a new age in German politics. Video above published by FT.com Oct 30, 2018. See also Bill Blain: "Europe heads into a very dangerous 2019."

EU: Eurozone GDP Hits 4 Year Low, Italian Economy Flatlines, Euro Slides--zerohedge.com.

US: Jobs smash estimates with gain of 250,000, wage gains pass 3% for first time since recession--cnbc.com.
  • POLL: TRUMP Approval 51% (Nov 2, 2018). The Trump Scoreboard--Editor's note: everything looks great except the trade deficit which can be attributed to an increase in imports before the new tariffs on China come into effect in early 2019.  See also Peter Thiel Pledges to Support Trump’s 2020 Campaign--bloomberg.com.

China: China's currency slips to weakest level in 10 years against the U.S. dollar--ft.com video.

Trade: Trump, Xi upbeat on trade after phone call; U.S. targets more Chinese firms--reuters.com.

World:
4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
  • Apple Store Expansion in China 'Hit Massive Brick Wall'--zerohedge.com. See also Apple $AAPL FY18 Q4 Earnings LIVE Webcast Nov 1. Apple said it will stop reporting unit sales data for its iPhone, iPad and Mac computer products--“Companies typically stop reporting metrics when the metrics are about to turn. This is not a good look for Apple”--Walter Piecyk, BTIG Research analyst. 
Editor's note: Apple's focus is on high-end premium hardware and services. The hardware products (iPhones, iPads, iMacs, etc.) come with hefty profit-margins, positioned as high-quality products, with less need for frequent replacement. Its target consumer demographic is nearing market saturation. Accordingly, I expect Apple will increasingly focus on its services and subscriptions, to reach untapped potential within its core consumer markets. "Unit sales" are therefore of decreasing importance, as long as Apple's "market share" within those hardware and services categories is maintained.
  • Baidu's fourth-quarter sales forecast misses estimates as regulation, trade fears bite--reuters.com. Also Ford and Baidu are collaborating on driverless vehicles. Ford's autonomous vehicles have been equipped with Baidu's autonomous driving system Apollo, and on-road testing is set to begin by the end of this year--cnbc.com.
  • Cloud: analyst firm Gartner.com says 10 percent of enterprises will have shut down their traditional data center by the end of 2018 -- and that's expected to rise to 80 percent by 2025.
  • U.S. Department of Justice charges two of China's intelligence officers 'and their team of hackers' in connection with IP and confidential data theft from US and French aviation companies--zdnet.com.
  • U.S. will restrict exports to China's state-owned Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit, as posing a national security threat, following claims by Micron Technology $MU of IP theft.--NYTimes.com. FT.com video on YouTube.com here.
  • How to secure the US electoral system: Cris Thomas, global strategy lead at IBM.com's X-Force Red, details some of the steps that can be taken to shore up the American electoral system--techrepublic.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2018-10-20

Tech Review | Future Finance: Smart Contracts on the Blockchain (video)

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2018-10-20)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Future Finance: Smart Contracts on the Blockchain, 2) Bitcoin Detectives: Cracking the ​Blockchain, 3) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes: US, Europe, China, 4) ICYMI Tech News: Amazon AWS JEDI & HQ2, Facebook, Google, Apple, Twitter, Wirecard.

1) "Future Finance" Forum 2018: Smart Contracts on the Blockchain

A lively panel discussion on the divergence in the blockchain ecosystem between cryptocurrencies and other private permission systems and how smart contracts are evolving, moderated by Ray Chan, Senior Correspondent, FinanceAsia, with Panelists: Paul Sin, Consulting Partner, Deloitte, Angelina Kwan, Managing Director, Head of Regulatory Compliance, HKEX, Joshua Kroeker, Blockchain/DLT Lead, Global Commercial Banking, HSBC, Lawrence Ma, President, HK Blockchain Society, Douglas W. Arner, Professor, Faculty of Law, The University of Hong Kong. The session was filmed at the "Future Finance - Adapting to Disruption" Forum held at Island Shangri-La Hong Kong on Wednesday, 7th February 2018. Thomson Reuters video published Oct 5, 2018.
Blockchain graphic ©2018 DomainMondo.com
See also: From Farm to Blockchain: Walmart Tracks Its Lettuce | NYTimes.com Sep 24, 2018: The giant retailer will begin requiring lettuce and spinach suppliers to contribute to a blockchain database that can rapidly pinpoint contamination.

2) Bitcoin Detectives: Cracking the ​Blockchain

The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has a problem as old as money itself​ -- theft​. And that's giving rise to a new profession: bitcoin detectives like Kim Nilsson, a victim of the massive Mt. Gox exchange hack.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite -0.6% | S&P 500 Index +0.02%  | DJIA +0.4%

Wall Street's Charging Bull
graphic of Charging Bull | DomainMondo.com
Investing Notes: US, Europe and China
  • US is the most competitive country in the world--regaining the No. 1 spot for the first time since 2008 in an index produced by the World Economic Forum--WSJ.com
  • Eurozone: ECB's "Bubble” Warning--WolfStreet.com: "After it Caused the Most Absurd Bond Bubble Ever." See also: Bavaria election (video) clear signal the center is moving to the fringes in Germany.
  • Brexit: How 4 Experts Think It'll Impact Business (video). Four scenarios (graphic).
  • EU: VC investment in European startups plunged 21% in Q3 2018--even with Brexit looming, startups in the United Kingdom were still number one, raising 43 percent ($2.3 billion) of the total capital in Q3, accounting for 32 percent (215) of the deals. France ranked a distant second in terms of venture capital raised, $679 million, and third in number of deals (78). Germany was third in amount raised, $631 million, and second in number of deals (83).--Dow Jones VentureSource Venture Capital Report - Europe Q3 2018 (pdf).
  • China: "Most surveyed companies are now experiencing unprecedented difficulties and have become increasingly pessimistic about business prospects for the next six months ... For most, business has never been worse."--Li Wei, economics professor at CKGSB. See also: China May Have $5.8 Trillion in Hidden Debt With ‘Titanic’ Risks--Bloomberg.com.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
• Amazon $AMZN: Amazon Web Services (AWS) is widely seen as front-runner in the race to win the US DOD $10 billion cloud-computing contract [JEDI]. Alphabet Inc. a/k/a Google withdrew last week, leaving AWS, IBM, Oracle, and Microsoft vying for the contract. Amazon Chairman & CEO Jeff Bezos said Monday at the Wired 25 Summit in San Francisco:
"If U.S. tech companies turn their backs on the Department of Defense, this country is in trouble. This is a great country and it does need to be defended." 
[Editor's note: most likely outcome? AWS wins JEDI contract, and a suburban Washington, D.C., location (northern Virginia) is chosen for Amazon HQ2.]
  • Facebook $FB: Fb.gg online gaming hub expands to mobile with the launch of the beta version of a standalone Android app--techcrunch.com.
  • Google $GOOGL: Google's real-time translations now available on Android phones and all Assistant-optimized headphones, not just Google Pixel Buds--droid-life.com. See also Android is dirty word?  ‘Android’ wasn’t said a single time during the Google Pixel 3 event--9to5google.com.
  • Apple $AAPL reportedly cut Chinese iPhone repair fraud with hidden dyes and software.
  • Wirecard (WDIG.DE), German fintech company expects core profits to grow sixfold by the middle of the next decade thanks to a boom in e-commerce and digital payments--reuters.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2018-10-05

5G Mobile Networks, A Deep Dive Into The Future

Who will get 5G networks deployed first? U.S., China, and South Korea are leading, depending on the factors one measures: launch, coverage, etc. The U.S. will have some 5G smartphone service next year with a few commercial launches for mobile broadband this year. China is investing much more in 5G and will likely be the first nation with broadly deployed 5G networks. See also The hot race for 5G will change the world we know now | TheHill.com.



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2018-09-19

Buy or Sell Stocks? Nobody Understands the Stock Market (videos)

One View: "Wall Street Is Probably Too Optimistic on Stocks, Sell Now"

"Investing Strategies - Morning Jolt" video above published by TheStreet.com Sep 18, 2018: Sell now, ask questions later?

"The Reality" according to TheStreet.com's Brian Sozzi, who is bearish, in the video above: "Within a week, two industrial powerhouses have let investors down with their profits. Investors have to start paying attention. 3M warned last week on profits amid higher commodities costs. FedEx missed earnings forecasts on Monday by a whopping 34 cents thanks to investments in higher worker wages."

Fund Managers Say: A net 24% of investors surveyed by BofA expect global growth to slow in the next year, up from net 7% in August. It marked the worst outlook on the global economy since December 2011. Editor's note: this may, in fact, be a bullish sign for buying more U.S. stocks as the large U.S. domestic market is not as dependent on exports as say, China or Germany. In that case,  Wall Street's bull market may be "where the action is" among global equity markets for the foreseeable future, and may have a lot more life left in it. U.S. stock exchanges are still getting plenty of domestic, as well as many, if not most, of the best non-domestic tech listings and IPOs, including from Europe (e.g., Spotify $SPOT) and China.

Market tops usually come when greed has fully displaced fear (which is not the case today), one reason why almost everyone, including the Federal Reserve, didn't see the 2008 crisis coming.

Around The Street: Over on Real Money, TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer tackled why nobody cares about high valuations on stocks. "What's so frustrating, what's so maddening about this market right now, though, is that valuation makes no difference whatsoever in anyone's thinking. Anyone. You get these downgrades by analysts on valuation and you just roll your eyes because, you see -- and this is really the rub -- the buyers do not care. They aren't going to stop here. They get new money in, they look at their stocks, they think their stocks are cheap and they buy more of them. It's an insanely non-rigorous virtuous circle. You want to boil down the current investment thesis? It goes like this: I buy them because they go higher and they go higher because I buy them. Could there be a more stupid or a more profitable investment strategy at this moment -- and perhaps until the end of the year? I don't know. I can't think of one," Cramer said.

Editor's note: end of the year? It could run a lot longer than that--Trump wants a trillion-dollar infrastructure program--and may get the OK from Congress next year, with help from Democrats. Remember,Trump is a real estate developer who was always very comfortable using leverage (debt).
NASDAQ Composite
Trade Wars and Tariffs? "Tariffs on another $200 billion will mean about 12% of U.S. imports have seen a tariff hike. That means an average tariff increase of only 1.6% across all imports, so tiny compared to the 1930s, when they were 20%," says Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors (ampcapital.com)--Markets Shrug Off Fresh Trade Salvo | SeekingAlpha.com Sep 18, 2018.

Looking further into 2019, is Brexit: Friday, 29 March 2019. The UK economy is the fifth-largest national economy in the world measured by nominal gross domestic product (GDP), ninth-largest measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). The EU seems to be forcing UK into a "hard Brexit" which will only strengthen Trump's hand for a quick "Free and Fair" trade deal between the US and UK, which both Donald Trump and Theresa May say they want. The UK is a net importer from the EU, so the EU stands to be hurt more by a "hard Brexit" than the UK, and opening the UK's $3.028 trillion economy (GDP PPP) to U.S. goods and services will open to the U.S. a developed market 1½ times the size of Canada's (GDP PPP), and for the UK, opening the U.S. economy ($20.4 trillion) to UK goods and services, will more than replace the EU (minus UK), as a trading partner. In such a scenario, don't be surprised if Trump, ever the showman, gloats over the stupidity of Brussels and Merkel, with what one might describe as a "shock and awe" US-UK trade deal meant to embarrass and humiliate the EU overlords in Brussels. Unlike Mexico, the UK, as a US trading partner, does not present competitive problems of low wages, lax environmental rules, crime and corruption. There is no language barrier, and the financial systems of both countries are already closely linked.

Michael Lewis: Nobody Understands the Stock Market

Bloomberg.com video above published Apr 2, 2014: "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt" Author Michael Lewis discusses his book, trading and the stock market on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers."

Editor's note: unless you are a professional trader, hedge fund manager, etc., the above is a good reason why individual investors should stick with index funds, starting with VFIAX, VFINX, or the like.

On the other hand,  cryptocurrencies? Hope you got out:

-- John Poole, Editor  Domain Mondo 

feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo


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2018-08-25

Tech Review: 1) Digital Fashion Models, 2) Dating in the Digital Age

graphic "Tech Review" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
Tech Review (TR 2018-08-25)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Digital Fashion Models, 2) Dating in the Digital Age3) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes: Bull Market, Emerging Markets, Turkey, Venezuela, China, EU, US4)ICYMI Tech News: Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Huawei, ZTE, Alibaba, Tencent, Nordstrom.

1) Miquela, Shudu, And The Rise Of Digital Fashion Models 

There are an increasing number of digital fashion models. Some have thousands and even millions of Instagram followers and brands and retailers are starting to show interest. A look at the growing trend. CNBC.com video published Aug 21, 2018

2) Dating in the Digital Age

Over 200 million people worldwide use online dating platforms and about one-third of married couples in the U.S. meet online. In this Economist cover story, an examination of the way online dating has changed and the way people now search for love. Economist.com video above published Aug 17, 2018.

3) Investing
graphic: "INVESTING"  ©2017 DomainMondo.com
The Week: NASDAQ Composite +1.7% | S&P 500 Index +0.9 | DJIA +0.5%

"The data still points to U.S. equity markets as being the better asset class. Look around the world. We're the best game in town ... If someone calls telling you to take money out of the U.S. and put it in emerging markets because they are cheap, HANG UP. Dead money for 12 years. Cheap for a reason."--Belpointe Asset Management chief strategist David Nelson.
"The main reason why Stay Home has been outperforming Go Global since the start of the bull market is that the forward earnings (i.e., the time-weighted average of consensus estimates for this year and next year) of the US MSCI stock price index has outpaced the forward earnings of the All Country World ex-US MSCI (in local currencies). The former is up 172% since it bottomed during the 4/30 week of 2009 through the 8/2 week this year, while the latter is up 78% over the same period"--Dr. Ed Yardeni.
Wall Street's Charging Bull
graphic of Charging Bull | DomainMondo.com
Investing Notes:
Goldman Sachs "cut its bond yield forecasts for all the G-10 countries based on changes in the outlook for monetary policy and inflation in several regions and less recovery in term premium in the U.S." Goldman lowered its end-2018 forecast for the 10-year (US) Treasury yield to 3.10% from 3.25%, and still expects 6 more rate hikes, or one per quarter until the Fed funds rate rises to 3.25%-3.5%--ZeroHedge.com.
Emerging Markets: 
  • Turkey's lira still under pressure, Trump resolute--reuters.com 
  • Venezuela devalues its currency, the bolĂ­var, by 95% and pegs it to a cryptocurrency--trying to contain "rampant inflation of more than 1 million percent a year."--businessinsider.com.
China: In their IPO filings, Chinese startups are warning investors about Tencent and Alibaba--Startups Struggle to Escape the Shadows of Alibaba and Tencent | Bloomberg.com: "the startups benefit from the cash and customers Alibaba and Tencent provide, [but] the deals can also feel like a trap. They can give Alibaba and Tencent inordinate voting power through board seats and veto rights; come laden with conflicts of interest over hiring, mergers and acquisitions, and other strategic decisions; and deepen the startups’ dependence on traffic from the larger companies to life-and-death proportions."

EU: Denmark targets U.S. and British companies and individuals in its global campaign to recoup billions of crowns allegedly paid out in fraudulent tax refunds between 2012 and 2015--reuters.com.

US: 
  • SEC rejects bitcoin ETFs--expressing concern about fraud and manipulation of bitcoin markets--cnbc.com.
  • Student loans are now the second-largest category of household debt in America, topping $1.4 trillion, trailing only mortgages at $9 trillion--zerohedge.com.

4) ICYMI Tech News:
graphic: "ICYMI Tech News" ©2017 DomainMondo.com
  • Apple and Google Face Growing Revolt Over App Store ‘Tax’--Bloomberg.com: "pushback from devs like Valve, Netflix and regulatory scrutiny."
  • Tesla $TSLA: "The Hype is No Longer with Tesla: Suppliers & Creditors Start to Fret"--WolfStreet.com  Aug 20, 2018: "18 of 22 suppliers believe Tesla is now a financial risk to their companies."
  • Australia bans Huawei and ZTE from providing 5G wireless network equipment to support the country's new telecom networks, citing risks of foreign interference and hacking--NYTimes.com.
  • Alibaba joins Google, others in making custom AI chips--CNBC.com.
  • Online vs Brick-and-Mortar Retail: Nordstrom  NYSE: JWN shares were up 12% after it reported better-than-expected results, but the results were due to ecommerce online sales, not brick-and-mortar store sales. Sales from Nordstrom.com soared 50% year-over year to $897 million, and including its other e-commerce sites, total online sales jumped 23% to $1.35 billion, or to 34% of its total sales--WolfStreet.com.

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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