Tech Review: 1) Digital Fashion Models, 2) Dating in the Digital Age

Tech Review (TR 2018-08-25)--Domain Mondo's weekly review of tech investing news with commentary, analysis and opinion: Features • 1) Digital Fashion Models, 2) Dating in the Digital Age,  3) Investing: The Week, Investing Notes: Bull Market, Emerging Markets, Turkey, Venezuela, China, EU, US,  4)ICYMI Tech News: Apple, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, Huawei, ZTE, Alibaba, Tencent, Nordstrom.

1) Miquela, Shudu, And The Rise Of Digital Fashion Models 

There are an increasing number of digital fashion models. Some have thousands and even millions of Instagram followers and brands and retailers are starting to show interest. A look at the growing trend. CNBC.com video published Aug 21, 2018

2) Dating in the Digital Age

Over 200 million people worldwide use online dating platforms and about one-third of married couples in the U.S. meet online. In this Economist cover story, an examination of the way online dating has changed and the way people now search for love. Economist.com video above published Aug 17, 2018.

3) Investing

The Week: NASDAQ Composite +1.7% | S&P 500 Index +0.9 | DJIA +0.5%

The Longest Running Bull Market In History and Likely To Go On

"The data still points to U.S. equity markets as being the better asset class. Look around the world. We're the best game in town ... If someone calls telling you to take money out of the U.S. and put it in emerging markets because they are cheap, HANG UP. Dead money for 12 years. Cheap for a reason."--Belpointe Asset Management chief strategist David Nelson.

"The main reason why Stay Home has been outperforming Go Global since the start of the bull market is that the forward earnings (i.e., the time-weighted average of consensus estimates for this year and next year) of the US MSCI stock price index has outpaced the forward earnings of the All Country World ex-US MSCI (in local currencies). The former is up 172% since it bottomed during the 4/30 week of 2009 through the 8/2 week this year, while the latter is up 78% over the same period"--Dr. Ed Yardeni.

Wall Street's Charging Bull

Investing Notes:

Goldman Sachs "cut its bond yield forecasts for all the G-10 countries based on changes in the outlook for monetary policy and inflation in several regions and less recovery in term premium in the U.S." Goldman lowered its end-2018 forecast for the 10-year (US) Treasury yield to 3.10% from 3.25%, and still expects 6 more rate hikes, or one per quarter until the Fed funds rate rises to 3.25%-3.5%--ZeroHedge.com.

Emerging Markets: 

• Turkey's lira still under pressure, Trump resolute--reuters.com 
• Venezuela devalues its currency, the bolívar, by 95% and pegs it to a cryptocurrency--trying to contain "rampant inflation of more than 1 million percent a year."--businessinsider.com.

China: In their IPO filings, Chinese startups are warning investors about Tencent and Alibaba--Startups Struggle to Escape the Shadows of Alibaba and Tencent | Bloomberg.com: "the startups benefit from the cash and customers Alibaba and Tencent provide, [but] the deals can also feel like a trap. They can give Alibaba and Tencent inordinate voting power through board seats and veto rights; come laden with conflicts of interest over hiring, mergers and acquisitions, and other strategic decisions; and deepen the startups’ dependence on traffic from the larger companies to life-and-death proportions."

EU: Denmark targets U.S. and British companies and individuals in its global campaign to recoup billions of crowns allegedly paid out in fraudulent tax refunds between 2012 and 2015--reuters.com.

US: 

• SEC rejects bitcoin ETFs--expressing concern about fraud and manipulation of bitcoin markets--cnbc.com.
• Student loans are now the second-largest category of household debt in America, topping $1.4 trillion, trailing only mortgages at $9 trillion--zerohedge.com.

4) ICYMI Tech News:

• Apple and Google Face Growing Revolt Over App Store ‘Tax’--Bloomberg.com: "pushback from devs like Valve, Netflix and regulatory scrutiny."

• Tesla $TSLA: "The Hype is No Longer with Tesla: Suppliers & Creditors Start to Fret"--WolfStreet.com  Aug 20, 2018: "18 of 22 suppliers believe Tesla is now a financial risk to their companies."

• Australia bans Huawei and ZTE from providing 5G wireless network equipment to support the country's new telecom networks, citing risks of foreign interference and hacking--NYTimes.com.

• Alibaba joins Google, others in making custom AI chips--CNBC.com.

• Microsoft's Undervalued Strengths | SeekingAlpha.com: "the image of a fading personal computer company that failed in its attempt to enter the smartphone market undervalues the reality of strong, highly profitable growth."

• Online vs Brick-and-Mortar Retail: Nordstrom  NYSE: JWN shares were up 12% after it reported better-than-expected results, but the results were due to ecommerce online sales, not brick-and-mortar store sales. Sales from Nordstrom.com soared 50% year-over year to $897 million, and including its other e-commerce sites, total online sales jumped 23% to $1.35 billion, or to 34% of its total sales--WolfStreet.com.

• David Versus Goliath:  Minds.com, An Alternative To The Facebook And Twitter Duopoly?

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo  

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Dating Apps, Winners, Losers, Traditional Advertising No Longer Works

Goliaths vs. Innovators

Video above: Scott Galloway, NYU Stern Marketing Professor. Video published July 28, 2016, by L2inc.com.

• Loser: Established CPG [ConsumerPackaged Goods] companies. Brands like L'Oréal Paris and Gillette are rapidly losing share to smaller, more agile rivals skilled at maximizing search visibility.
• Loser: Specialty Retail brands who email too much. Retailers sent 15% more emails in Q1 2016 than during the holiday season, but the resulting open rates proved that sometimes less is more.
• Winner or loser? Parents now spend less on food, transportation, and clothing than they did fifty years ago. However, childcare and education costs have soared.
• Who's winning in dating apps? Match Group, which owns 64% of the app ecosystem, including OKCupid and Tinder. 

Transcript:

A loser: established CPG [consumer-packaged goods] brands. 90 of the 100 largest CPG brands in the US lost share in the past year and two-thirds registered sales declines. The reason? Traditional advertising no longer works. Who's winning? Smaller brands with agile product innovation that digital - specifically search - rewards.

Two examples: NYX, who outperforms L'Oréal Paris 3 times in organic search visibility despite only bidding on 129 terms, versus 60,000 terms for L'Oréal Paris or Harry's, who in 5 short months jumped from number 9 in organic search visibility to number 3 as Gillette fell to second and Amazon secured the top spot.

So what's going on here? In sum, the diligence vehicles of Amazon reviews and Google search make it easier to connect you and the right product without having to default to the safety of a brand.

A loser: Specialty Retail brands who email too much. If your inbox feels overwhelmed, that's because it is. Retailers sent 15% more emails in Q1 2016 than during the overwhelming holiday season. But more isn't always better. With each additional email campaign, open rates declined by 15 basis points. Asking consumers explicitly and implicitly for additional information - such as you can customize the content and the email - is a winning strategy.

Everyone knows raising a child is expensive, but the complexion of that cost has changed dramatically in the past 50 years. I've told both my sons they need to start pulling their weight. Lorde wrote a Grammy-nominated song when she was 13. My kid at nine still lets the bath overflow - even when he's in it. Parents are spending less on food, transportation, and clothing but childcare and education costs have surged, accounting for a fifth of parental expenses - a big change from 1960, when they were just 2%.

The most affordable place in the US to raise a child? Morristown, Tennessee, where a family of 4 can meet their basic needs on $50,000 a year. That's half the required income necessary to raise a family in New York or Washington, DC.

Dating apps: winners or losers? By the way, my nickname around here is Swipe Left. It depends which one you're on and what you're looking for. Let''s look at some of the data.

• Tinder is the most popular and Happn has the most daily engagement.
• Christian Mingle has the highest proportion of women.
• Grindr has the lowest churn rate and eHarmony has the highest.

But who really wins? Match Group, which owns 64% of the dating app ecosystem.

I can save you some money. This is literally a fail-safe way to approach women. You walk up. Scott. Scorpio. Never fails.


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