Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

2019-07-01

David Rosenberg on the U.S. Economy, Recession, U.S. Dollar (video)

'The recession has already started': David Rosenberg on the U.S. economy

BNN Bloomberg spoke with David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, about growing concern over the state of the global economy. and why he thinks the U.S. recession has already started. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 17, 2019. Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., (domain: gluskinsheff.com) is a Canadian wealth management firm. BNN Bloomberg is a Canadian English language specialty channel owned by Bell Media, broadcasting Canada’s only TV service devoted exclusively to business, finance and the markets, headquartered at 299 Queen Street West in Downtown Toronto. [Editor's note and caveat: Rosenberg has been known as a perma-bear.]

Get U.S. dollar exposure to prepare for coming economic pain: David Rosenberg

David Rosenberg thinks the U.S. is already in recession, but doesn't believe investors should flee from the greenback. BNN Bloomberg video above published Jun 18, 2019.


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2019-03-20

Federal Reserve Chairman's Press Conference LIVE Wednesday, March 20

FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, 2:30pm EDT

FOMC Press Conference LIVE March 20, 2019, at 2:30 pm EDT, with the Fed Chair, following FOMC Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. Summary: no rate-hikes in 2019, one rate-hike in 2020, and balance sheet normalization ends in September.

See also March 20, 2019 Balance Sheet Normalization Principles and Plans.

Domain: federalreserve.gov
Effective Federal Funds Rate--Above: Jul 1954 - Feb 2019
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
2019 FOMC Members:
Alternate Members:

Fed Chairman Powell at FOMC Press Conference January 30, 2019

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2019-03-06

'Free Money' | Modern Monetary Theory a/k/a MMT Explained (video)

Bernie Sanders' 2016 Advisor On Trump's Economy And Modern Monetary Theory

CNBC video above published Mar 4, 2019: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is gaining traction in American politics, energizing the progressive left and roiling deficit hawks. Stephanie Kelton, who advised Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, explains the basics.

2020 Election: She says Democrat presidential hopefuls are swinging for the fences with ambitious policy proposals while Trump appears to have changed his thinking on the deficit and debt since his 2016 run. On headwinds facing the economy, Kelton says she sees an "extraordinarily resilient" U.S. economy despite a "real" global slowdown and a small chance of additional rate hikes from the Fed.

Stephanie Kelton is a proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the economic rational cited by rising political stars like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D-N.Y. She is currently a professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University. Previously, she served as chief economist for the Democrats on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee and was a senior economic advisor to Bernie Sanders ' 2016 presidential campaign.

Editor's note: key questions: what is your definition of "full employment"? What political system has the necessary discipline to apply the constraints required for an effective long-term MMT policy?

See also:
  • Paul Krugman Asked Me About Modern Monetary Theory. Here Are 4 Answers. Deficit levels, interest rates and the tradeoff between fiscal and monetary policy, by Stephanie Kelton, March 1, 2019--bloomberg.com
  • The left’s embrace of modern monetary theory is a recipe for disaster by Larry Summers--WashingtonPost.com.
  • Modern Monetary Nonsense, Mar 4, 2019, by Kenneth Rogoff: "... Contrary to widespread opinion, the US central bank is not an independent financial entity: the [U.S.] government owns it lock, stock, and barrel. Unfortunately, the Fed itself is responsible for a good deal of the confusion surrounding the use of its balance sheet. In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed engaged in massive “quantitative easing” (QE), whereby it bought up very long-term government debt in exchange for bank reserves, and tried to convince the American public that this magically stimulated the economy. QE, when it consists simply of buying government bonds, is smoke and mirrors ..."--project-syndicate.org.
  • Running on MMT (Wonkish)--Trying to get this debate beyond Calvinball by Paul Krugman--NYTimes.com.


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2018-12-31

Year 2018 in Review & Fall of the FAANGs $AAPL $FB (video)

2018: Year in Review

Among the key events of the year; Donald Trump met Kim Jong Un, Facebook's growth slowed as Apple's market cap hit $1 trillion, and a trade war between the US and China weakened the global economy. Videos above and below published by the Financial Times (ft.com).

A Tale of Two Stocks: Apple $AAPL and Facebook $FB:
$AAPL
$FB
Techlash: the fall of the FAANGs

FT.com's Rana Foroohar explains what happened this year to the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, et al) in the tech sector, and what may further impact the sector in 2019.






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2018-12-19

Federal Reserve Chairman's Press Conference LIVE Wednesday, Dec 19

FOMC Press Conference LIVE December 19, 2018

"In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent."--FOMC Press Release, Dec 19, 2018 (pdf). Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles. See also Implementation Note issued December 19, 2018.

FOMC Meeting December 18-19. 2018: The Federal Reserve's highly-anticipated December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Tuesday-Wednesday, December 18-19, 2018. Consensus of economists is that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of between 2.25% and 2.50% and that the Fed's closely-watched dot plot will indicate two rate hikes in 2019. Any indication of the Fed's plans for the future may have an even greater impact on markets and many analysts will closely follow the LIVE press conference of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, at 2:30 p.m. EST, Dec 19, 2018. “Fed drift” is a known market anomaly, where the S&P 500 often generates most of its annual return in the 3 days around Federal Reserve meetings.
On Monday, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach told CNBC-TV that the Federal Reserve should not hike its benchmark overnight lending rate in December. "I think they shouldn't raise them this week. The bond market is basically saying, 'Fed you've got no way you should be raising interest rates,"  said Gundlach.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at his FOMC Press Conference September 26, 2018
2018 FOMC Committee Members:
Alternate Members:


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2018-11-27

Goldman Sachs Global Economic Outlook 2019 (video)

Global Economic Outlook 2019

Goldman Sachs (goldmansachs.com): the global economy looks poised to slow moderately from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% next year in Goldman Sachs Research’s view, led by deceleration in the US and further softening in China. But with growth still above potential in most developed economies, Goldman Sachs Research expects continued labor market tightening, gradually rising core inflation, and in many cases higher policy rates. Video above published Nov 20, 2018.

Read the Report: 
Global Economic Outlook 2019: Landing the Plane - 19 Nov 2018 | GoldmanSachs.com


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2016-12-14

U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC Press Conference LIVE Video Replay 12/14/16

FOMC Press Conference, December 14, 2016:

Streamed LIVE December 14, 2016, at 2:30 pm EST (US): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference

See also:

About the FOMC (source: federalreserve.gov):

 The term "monetary policy" refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.

 The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

 Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

 Structure of the FOMC

 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.

 The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

 For more detail on the FOMC and monetary policy, see section 2 of the brochure on the structure of the Federal Reserve System and chapter 2 of Purposes & Functions of the Federal Reserve System. FOMC Rules and Authorizations are also available online.

 2016 Committee Members
Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair
William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard, Board of Governors
James Bullard, St. Louis
Stanley Fischer, Board of Governors
Esther L. George, Kansas City
Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland
Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors
Eric Rosengren, Boston
Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors

 Alternate Members
Charles L. Evans, Chicago
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia
Robert S. Kaplan, Dallas
Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis
Michael Strine, First Vice President, New York
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2015-12-16

FED FOMC Rate Hike, Press Conference Video Replay, Transcript


Dec 16, 2015 Press Conference replay video above - Transcript of Press Conference (pdf)

 Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent

Press Release - Release Date: December 16, 2015:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft. A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.

 Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

 The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

 In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

 The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

 Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

see also: FRB: Implementation Note issued December 16, 2015

and on Domain Mondo: Return to Normality? FED Set To Raise Rates for First Time Since 2006

#FOMC (Google search results page)




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2015-09-17

Did The Fed Just Signal A Deteriorating Global Economy Into 2016 (videos)



Video above: Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged on Sept 17, 2015 - Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged, opting to delay an increase amid stubbornly low inflation, an uncertain outlook for global growth and recent financial-market turmoil.


FOMC Chair Janet Yellen: Global Outlook Is Uncertain (video above)

Press Conference below:


Above Video: Press Conference with Chair of the FOMC, Janet L. Yellen, September 17, 2015

And the markets? S&P500 falls (see chart below)--did the Fed just send us a signal that the global economy is going to get worse--including China and Europe?

One day chart: S&P 500 closed down Sept 17, 2015
One day chart: S&P 500 closed down Sept 17, 2015 (source: google.com)
Go to federalreserve.gov for more information including the FOMC Statement

 see also: Wall Street and the World Are Watching: Will the Fed Make Its Move Now?



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