MacroView | Trump's Worldview: Brexit & Friends, Partners & Adversaries

Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:

MacroView Feature • Trump's Worldview: Brexit & Friends, Partners & Adversaries:

UK Prime Minister Theresa May to meet with President Trump in Washington D.C., Friday Jan 27:

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will hold talks with US President Donald Trump in the White House this coming Friday (Jan. 27) on issues such as trade and security, with the UK Prime Minister being the first foreign leader to meet the US President since he took office. She told the BBC that the special relationship between the two countries enabled her to raise difficult matters.

Donald Trump: I’ll do a deal with the UK: "Donald Trump will offer Britain a quick and “fair” trade deal with America within weeks of taking office to help make Brexit a “great thing”."--The Sunday Times | thetimes.co.uk Jan. 15, 2017.

Bannon and Kushner engineer UK meetings | Axios.com Jan. 21, 2017: "Donald Trump will take his first foreign leader meeting as President with British Prime Minister Theresa May ... A senior source tells Axios that Trump's chief strategist Steve Bannon played an important role in pushing the meeting to happen earlier than originally planned. Bannon has also been in contact with Boris Johnson, the British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and one of the chief cheerleaders of the Brexit movement. Jared Kushner was also very influential in the process, we are told ..."

"The US is already Britain's second-largest trading partner by country, after Germany. Trade between both countries is already more than 150 billion pounds ($186 billion), and the US is the single biggest source of inward investment to the UK, the [UK] embassy said."--CNN.com Jan. 22, 2017.

Trump's Worldview using the 4 levels noted in Rex Tillerson's Senate confirmation hearing:

Note: "Partners" too numerous to list all. Domain Mondo Editor's categorization based on Trump's past statements

"In India, where the right wing shares a strong political affinity with the American right, Mr. Trump’s inauguration was celebrated by Hindu nationalists and business leaders eager for more trade between the two nations ... “Trump’s victory is confirmed early due to his thoughts against Islamic terrorism and love for India and Hindus,” the group’s leader, Vishnu Gupta, said, according to Reuters. In Egypt, support for Mr. Trump remained fervent among the country’s anti-Islamist establishment."--NYTimes.com

EU Populists See Trump Victory as Beginning of End for Old Order | Bloomberg.com: "While a meeting of the populist right would once have been dismissed as a sideshow, Trump’s unexpected rise and the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU in last year’s referendum have focused investors’ concerns on the where the next threat to the European Union project might emerge. “The first major hit on the old order was Brexit,” Le Pen told a couple of hundred cheering supporters in Koblenz’s conference center. EU countries will soon “leave the prison of Europe,” she predicted, branding Merkel’s decision to let almost a million migrants into Germany last year “a catastrophe.” Trump himself has called the move “a catastrophic mistake.” Hammering on the key themes of her election campaign, Le Pen said every member of the euro area must have the possibility of leaving and that the shared currency [euro] is “destroying” the French economy."

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:
•  TPP is dead: Trade Deals Working For All Americans | whitehouse.gov: ".... This strategy starts by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and making certain that any new trade deals are in the interests of American workers. President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA. In addition to rejecting and reworking failed trade deals, the United States will crack down on those nations that violate trade agreements and harm American workers in the process. The President will direct the Commerce Secretary to identify all trade violations and to use every tool at the federal government’s disposal to end these abuses." (emphasis added)

•  China says can resolve trade disputes with new U.S. government | cnbc.com: "I believe China and the United States can resolve any disputes through dialogue and negotiation and that the China-U.S. commercial relationship will not significantly stray from the path of mutual benefit."--Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Sun Jiwen

 •  Inside the Trump White House: "Mr. Priebus [White House Chief of Staff] is navigating a West Wing crowded with powerful figures in their own right, including the president-elect’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who will always outweigh anyone else regardless of title; the chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon; the counselor Kellyanne Conway; Vice President-elect Mike Pence; and the economic adviser Gary Cohn, the blunt former Goldman Sachs executive who is rising fast in Mr. Trump’s circle."--NYTimes.com. Also: Warren Buffett Supports Trump on Cabinet Picks‘ Overwhelmingly’ | Bloomberg.com.

 •  EU corrupt or just inept? Spain’s Banks Openly Flout the Law Like Never Before | WolfStreet.com: "...“We probably have the best mortgage system in the world,” explained Francisco González, Executive Chairman of Spain’s second largest bank, BBVA, seemingly with a straight face last week at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos ..." See also: These Are The 3 Main Issues For Europe In 2017 | ZeroHedge.com: "... The EU is built around a massive exporter: Germany ... Neither China nor Russia will be increasing demand for German goods due to their own economic woes. And while Germany has managed to survive thus far by increasing exports to the UK and the US, this is not sustainable ..."

•  Memos from Howard Marks | oaktreecapital.com: "Think back to just before ... [the] election.  What did we know? The polls were almost unanimous in saying Hillary Clinton would win ... There was a near-universal belief that a Trump victory – as unlikely as it was – would be bad for the markets. So what happened?  First Clinton didn’t win ... And second, the U.S. stock market had its best week since 2014! ... Thus two key observations can be made ... First, no one really knows what events are going to transpire. And second, no one knows what the market’s reaction to those events will be. One of the key conclusions we should draw from the surprises of 2016 is that the pundits often failed to understand people and their views.  It’s clear that people who work in the media hadn’t understood many average Americans ..."

•  Cutting Cash Would Be a Boon for the World’s Poor, Rogoff Says | Bloomberg.com: "The Nordic nations all rank among the least corrupt and most transparent in the world. Cash accounts for less than 5 percent of the money in circulation, making them the least cash-reliant group of countries on the planet. “If you do financial inclusion the way you’ve done it in Denmark for example, where you give everyone free debit cards, it would help a lot of problems,” Rogoff said in an interview in Copenhagen on Thursday, after speaking at a Skagen Funds conference. “I think the poor would be among the biggest beneficiaries.”"  See also These are the Countries with the Biggest Debt Slaves, and Americans Are Only in 10th place | Wolf Street.com.

•  Obama Presidency postscript--nice guy, good golf partner, failed President--among Obama's many failures: Obamacare, Syria, Libya ... and Education: Obama administration spent billions to fix failing schools, and it didn’t work | WashingtonPost.com.

 One More Thing:
•  Putin apparently got in the last word on the Russian Dossier Hoax #FakeNews:

Video above published Jan 17, 2017 -- Russian President Vladimir Putin: ".... I am not acquainted with Mr. Trump, I have not met him, I do not know what he will do in the international arena so I have no reason either to attack him, criticise him for something or defend him ... But these false stories are utter nonsense ... When Trump came to Moscow a few years ago, he was not a politician and we did not know about his political ambitions. He was a businessman, one of the rich people in America. Does anyone really think that our security services chase every American billionaire? Of course not, it is complete nonsense ... Trump arrived [in Moscow] and immediately went to meet with the Moscow prostitutes? First, he is a grown man and secondly, he is a man who was engaged in the organisation of beauty contests and communicated with the most beautiful women in the world for many years. You know, I can hardly imagine that he ran into a hotel to meet with our girls with low social responsibility ... Prostitution is a serious, ugly social phenomenon because many women are involved in it as they have no other way to provide themselves. And it is pretty much the fault of the society and the state. But people who make-up such falsifications that are currently spread about the US President-elect, that are invented and used in the political struggle, those people are worse than prostitutes. They have no moral restraints."

-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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IMF World Bank Meetings, Christine Lagarde Press Briefing (videos)

Video above: IMF World Bank Meetings, Lima, Peru, October 9-11, 2015: What Results Can We Expect? Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua reports on the world’s finance chiefs and central bankers gathering in Lima to discuss a sluggish global economy. She reports on "Bloomberg ‹GO›, October 8, 2015.


Press Briefing: IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde - (53:12) October 8, 2015
Topics discussed include: TPP Trade Agreement, China, World Economy,
2015 Annual Meetings - World Bank Group - International Monetary Fund
Speakers:
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF
David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department

2015 Annual IMF World Bank Meetings website

International Monetary Fund: imf.org
World Bank: worldbank.org


Managing the Transition to a Healthier Global Economy
(01:01:05)  September 30, 2015
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde discussed the state of the global economy in a speech delivered at an event hosted by Council of the Americas (AS/COA). Video: Courtesy of Council of the Americas.

See also on Domain Mondo:

• Wall Street and the World Are Watching: Will the Fed Make Its Move Now? Sep 16, 2015
• Race to the Bottom: Chinese Stocks Crash, China Lowers Interest Rates Aug 25, 2015
• Wealthy Chinese Investors Flee China's Stock Markets Aug 19, 2015

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TPP, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Atlanta Meeting Sep 30-Oct 1 (video)

TPP Crunch Time: What's Holding It Up? (source: Bloomberg)
ITS Global Managing Director Alan Oxley discusses the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the talks that resume in Atlanta this week, and whether a deal can be reached. He speaks to Bloomberg's Angie Lau on "First Up." Published on Sep 28, 2015

ITS Global | Consultants on Global Issues: [domain name: itsglobal.net]"ITS Global is a dynamic consultancy specialising in public policy in the Asia Pacific region. Its expertise include: trade, economics and investment; environment and sustainability; aid and development; and corporate social responsibility and risk. It enables clients to assess implications of policy; develop and implement strategies to manage policy impacts; and to improve policy formulation."

United States to Host Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Ministers’ Meeting in Atlanta | United States Trade Representative: "The United States will host a meeting of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Trade Ministers in Atlanta, GA from September 30th – October 1st preceded by a meeting of TPP Chief Negotiators from September 26th-29th.  Trade Ministers and negotiators last met in July and have been making good progress toward resolving the limited number of outstanding issues."

What is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)? According to the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF): "The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a secretive, multinational trade agreement that threatens to extend restrictive intellectual property (IP) laws across the globe and rewrite international rules on its enforcement. The main problems are two-fold:
(1) Intellectual Property Chapter: Leaked draft texts of the agreement show that the IP chapter would have extensive negative ramifications for users’ freedom of speech, right to privacy and due process, and hinder peoples' abilities to innovate.
(2) Lack of Transparency: The entire process has shut out multi-stakeholder participation and is shrouded in secrecy.
The twelve nations currently negotiating the TPP are the US, Japan, Australia, Peru, Malaysia, Vietnam, New Zealand, Chile, Singapore, Canada, Mexico, and Brunei Darussalam. The TPP contains a chapter on intellectual property covering copyright, trademarks, and patents. Since the draft text of the agreement has never been officially released to the public, we know from leaked documents, such as the May 2014 draft of the TPP Intellectual Property Chapter [PDF], that US negotiators are pushing for the adoption of copyright measures far more restrictive than currently required by international treaties, including the controversial Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA).
The TPP Will Rewrite Global Rules on Intellectual Property Enforcement
All signatory countries will be required to conform their domestic laws and policies to the provisions of the Agreement. In the US, this is likely to further entrench controversial aspects of US copyright law (such as the Digital Millennium Copyright Act[DMCA]) and restrict the ability of Congress to engage in domestic law reform to meet the evolving IP needs of American citizens and the innovative technology sector. The recently leaked US-proposed IP chapter also includes provisions that appear to go beyond current US law.
The leaked US IP chapter includes many detailed requirements that are more restrictive than current international standards, and would require significant changes to other countries’ copyright laws. These include obligations for countries to:
Place Greater Liability on Internet Intermediaries: The TPP would force the adoption of the US DMCA Internet intermediaries copyright safe harbor regime in its entirety. For example, this would require Chile to rewrite its forward-looking 2010 copyright law that currently establishes a judicial notice-and-takedown regime, which provides greater protection to Internet users’ expression and privacy than the DMCA.
Escalate Protections for Digital Locks: It will compel signatory nations to enact laws banning circumvention of digital locks (technological protection measures or TPMs)[PDF] that mirror the DMCA and treat violation of the TPM provisions as a separate offense even when no copyright infringement is involved. This would require countries like New Zealand to completely rewrite its innovative 2008 copyright law, as well as override Australia’s carefully-crafted 2007 TPM regime exclusions for region-coding on movies on DVDs, video games, and players, and for embedded software in devices that restrict access to goods and services for the device—a thoughtful effort by Australian policy makers to avoid the pitfalls experienced with the US digital locks provisions. In the US, business competitors have used the DMCA to try to block printer cartridge refill services, competing garage door openers, and to lock mobile phones to particular network providers.
Create New Threats for Journalists and Whistleblowers: Dangerously vague text on the misuse of trade secrets, which could be used to enact harsh criminal punishments against anyone who reveals or even accesses information through a "computer system" that is allegedly confidential.
Expand Copyright Terms: Create copyright terms well beyond the internationally agreed period in the 1994 Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). The TPP could extend copyright term protections from life of the author + 50 years, to Life + 70 years for works created by individuals, and either 95 years after publication or 120 years after creation for corporate owned works (such as Mickey Mouse). Read more about the TPP Copyright Trap.
Enact a "Three-Step Test" Language That Puts Restrictions on Fair Use: The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is putting fair use at risk with restrictive language in the TPP's IP chapter. US and Australia have proposed very restrictive text, while other countries such as Chile, New Zealand, and Malaysia, have proposed more flexible, user-friendly terms.
Adopt Criminal Sanctions: Adopt criminal sanctions for copyright infringement that is done without a commercial motivation. Users could be jailed or hit with debilitating fines over file sharing, and may have their property or domains seized even without a formal complaint from the copyright holder...."

See also:

• https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/TPP-Detailed-Summary-of-US-Objectives.pdf
• https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/reports-and-publications/2015/update-trans-pacific-partnership

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