Showing posts with label World Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Economy. Show all posts

2017-10-16

German Finance Minister Schäuble Warns of Global Financial Crisis (video)

Schäuble warns of financial crisis

Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Oct 9, 2017: Outgoing German finance chief says central bank policies risk forming ‘new bubbles’--Wolfgang Schäuble has warned that spiralling levels of global debt and liquidity present a serious risk to the world economy, in his parting shot as Germany’s finance minister.

See also:
  • Austria election 2017 results 15 Oct 2017: Eurosceptic Conservative Millennial Sebastian Kurz, age 31, declares victory--Europe's youngest leader--'Brussels Nightmare'
  • FT.com: Paris and Berlin at odds over key plank of eurozone reform plans
  • Merkel's Party Suffers Vote Setback in Germany's Lower Saxony on Sunday, Oct 15, 2017, with the poorest showing in 58 years for Angela Merkel's party, the CDU, in Lower Saxony (a German state larger than the Netherlands), further weakening Merkel as she tries to form an "awkward" alliance with pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and environmentalist Greens. Negotiations could well drag into 2018, reports Reuters.com.
What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in Common

Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 9, 2017: Most people would agree that the bond market is expensive. But is it in a bubble? Alan Greenspan thinks so. So will this bubble be popping anytime soon? Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro explains. #BondBubble



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2016-02-20

Shipping Industry Has a Warning for the World Economy (video)



Perfect Storm? The Shipping Industry Has a Warning for the World Economy - Published Feb 11, 2016 -  If the Baltic Dry Index is any guide for the global economy, the picture is looking stormy. It's plunged to historic lows since the start of the year. Bloomberg looks at why, and what it could tell us about future growth.

Baltic Dry Index - (Wikipedia): "The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis, the index covers Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain."

The Baltic Exchange - balticexchange.com


Video above: Baltic Exchange 2015 - An overview of the Baltic Exchange, the world's only independent source of maritime market information. Interview with the chief executive Jeremy Penn and members of the Exchange. Published on Jun 29, 2015
BDIY Quote - Baltic Dry Index - Bloomberg Markets

 Tweets about Baltic Dry Index





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2016-01-10

The Decade Ahead by Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase CEO (video)



Video above: JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon on the Decade Ahead (Fortune Global Forum, San Francisco, November 4, 2015)

Jamie Dimon, the head of the nation’s biggest bank, has this piece of advice for other CEOs: It’s time to start thinking positive.

The CEO of JP Morgan Chase said leaders have been programmed to be risk averse since the recession and related financial crisis. But he argued that the economic forces are generally in America’s and the world’s favor. “Don’t be so damned depressed,” Dimon said at Fortune’s Global Forum in San Francisco. “We have all become risk experts and are afraid of our own shadow at this point. Move on. The world is going to be fine.” Dimon said the American economy was improving and that the world economy would double in size in 15 years. Dimon also said there has been too much focus recently on when the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates — an issue that he insisted didn’t matter much. But he described the waiting as a distraction. Instead, Dimon pushed of the idea of increasing rates sooner rather than later, as a sort of psychological boost. “I would argue that would reduce uncertainty,” he said. (source: Fortune Global Forum)

 JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the name of the holding company and the firm serves its customers and clients under its Chase and J.P. Morgan brands.

Domain names:

re: faster, better, quicker, cheaper--serve your clients, your customers; economy, blockchain, bitcoin, virtual currency, technology, banking, Future of the EU—“A breakup of the Euro today would cause a depression;” immigration reform, fiscal policy, government bureaucracy, regulation,




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2015-10-10

IMF World Bank Meetings, Christine Lagarde Press Briefing (videos)


Video above: IMF World Bank Meetings, Lima, Peru, October 9-11, 2015: What Results Can We Expect? Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua reports on the world’s finance chiefs and central bankers gathering in Lima to discuss a sluggish global economy. She reports on "Bloomberg ‹GO›, October 8, 2015.


Press Briefing: IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde - (53:12) October 8, 2015
Topics discussed include: TPP Trade Agreement, China, World Economy,
2015 Annual Meetings - World Bank Group - International Monetary Fund
Speakers:
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, IMF
David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Gerry Rice, Director, Communications Department

2015 Annual IMF World Bank Meetings website

International Monetary Fund: imf.org
World Bank: worldbank.org


Managing the Transition to a Healthier Global Economy
(01:01:05)  September 30, 2015
IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde discussed the state of the global economy in a speech delivered at an event hosted by Council of the Americas (AS/COA). Video: Courtesy of Council of the Americas.

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2015-09-16

Wall Street and the World Are Watching: Will the Fed Make Its Move Now?

Second UPDATE Sept 17, 2015: "NO Liftoff"--the Fed keeps the Fed Funds Rate at Zero--
"When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."--from the Fed Statement Sept 17, 2015
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.

Quick Domain Mondo analysis: we (US, Europe, China, the world) may be in trouble. Looks like the Fed has trapped itself (and the markets) in a ZIRP-dependent "permanency," and cannot even impose 1/4% increase--read this--whenever the Fed tries "liftoff" in this environment, it won't be easy to "launch." Now going on 7 years in a "financial emergency" state?

UPDATE September 17, 2015: The decision by the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected on Thursday, September 17, 2015, at 2 p.m. ET (US) (1800 GMT).

2015 Members of the FOMC

Members
Janet L. Yellen, Board of Governors, Chair
William C. Dudley, New York, Vice Chairman
Lael Brainard, Board of Governors
Charles L. Evans, Chicago
Stanley Fischer, Board of Governors
Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond
Dennis P. Lockhart, Atlanta
Jerome H. Powell, Board of Governors
Daniel K. Tarullo, Board of Governors
John C. Williams, San Francisco

Alternate Members
James Bullard, St. Louis
Esther L. George, Kansas City
Loretta J. Mester, Cleveland
Eric Rosengren, Boston
Michael Strine, First Vice President, New York

About the Federal Open Market Committee: The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

 Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

 Since December 16, 2008 (including for the entire Presidency of Barack Obama), the U.S. has been under an historically unprecedented the Federal Reserve zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP), see charts below. The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Federal Reserve, and informally as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States. A change in the U.S. federal funds rate has ramifications in markets globally and the world economy.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1HR6



'Don't Fight the Fed' -- "Will Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate at their Sept. 16-17 meeting, or not?"--Wall Street’s Favorite Guessing Game: When Will the Fed Make Its Move? - Bloomberg Business

Notwithstanding global problems, including in China and Europe, and warnings far and wide of "don't raise rates" the US Federal Reserve could make its move now and increase the federal funds rate--and if it does, it will most likely be due to the influence of Stanley Fischer on the Fed:
"We tend to underestimate the lags in receiving information and the lags with which policy decisions affect the economy. Those lags led me to try to make decisions as early as possible, even if that meant there was more uncertainty about the correctness of the decision than would have been appropriate had the lags been absent." --Stanley Fischer, 2014
"Guy Haselmann, a Scotiabank strategist, says that in his nearly three decades on the Street he’s never seen such confusion ... The Fed is slated to announce its decision on Sept. 17, at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. As of the close of trading on Thursday (Sept. 10, 2015), futures traders assigned a 28 percent chance that the rate will be lifted a quarter-point to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. Analysts are a bit more sure there’ll be a hike, with about half of the 81 surveyed by Bloomberg predicting one." source: Bloomberg Business

Will it be one and done for the Fed? - MarketWatch: "... more traders now expect the Fed to raise rates in September ... the vast majority expect a "one and done" move from the Fed. Investors should note that historically, since 1970, the S&P 500 has rallied 92% of the time in the two years following the first rate hike..."

Why Hedge Fund Hotshots Finally Got Hammered | Wolf Street: "Why [do] we need an 81st month of ZIRP when 80 months so far have not succeeded ... the Fed will likely announce a “one and done” move in September, causing the casino to stage a short-lived, half-heated rally..."


Is the Fed Afraid of Playing Catch Up on Rates? Kevin Caron, market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, talks with Olivia Sterns about expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, explains why the fed risks falling behind the curve is they don’t move rates higher, and offers his investment strategy on oil and gold. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets," September 11, 2015.

 In the United States, the federal funds rate is "the interest rate" at which depository institutions actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, on an uncollateralized basis... The nominal rate is a target set by the governors of the Federal Reserve, which they enforce primarily by open market operations. That nominal rate is almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve "changing interest rates." The actual federal funds rate generally lies within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an exact value through open market operations. See: Federal funds rate (Wikipedia)

Principal and related domain names:
federalreserve.gov - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
20th Street and Constitution Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20551

12 Federal Reserve Banks were established by the U.S. Congress as the operating arms of the nation's central banking system:
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta frbatlanta.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston bos.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago chicagofed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland clevelandfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas  dallasfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City kc.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis minneapolisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of New York newyorkfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia philadelphiafed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond richmondfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco frbsf.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis stlouisfed.org

http://www.bis.org/country/us.htm Bank of International Settlements (BIS) page on the US Fed

BIS Directory of all Central Bank and monetary authority websites in the world




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2015-08-30

India, World Economy, Need For Reforms, RBI Governor Interview (video)



Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has called on the Government of India to get cracking on reforms. In an exclusive conversation with Bloomberg TV India's Siddharth Zarabi, Rajan stressed on the need for sustained reform momentum to ensure India stands out in a volatile global environment. Above is the exclusive interview. Published on Aug 5, 2015.

"Raghuram Govind Rajan (born 3 February 1963) is the current and the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, having taken charge of India's central banking institution on 4 September 2013, and succeeding Duvvuri Subbarao. Rajan was chief economic adviser to India's Ministry of Finance during the previous year and chief economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2007. He is on leave of absence as a professor of finance at the graduate business school at the University of Chicago. Raghuram Rajan was born 1963 in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh in a Tamil family and his father was a senior officer in the Intelligence Bureau (India). He did his schooling from 7th to 12th standard in Delhi Public School, RK Puram and graduated from the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi with a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering in 1985, after which he acquired a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Administration from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad in 1987. He won Director's Gold Medal in IIT Delhi and was a Gold medalist at IIM Ahmedabad. He received a Ph.D. in Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1991 for his thesis titled "Essays on Banking"." (Wikipedia)

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