Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label financial crisis. Show all posts
2018-10-01
Adam Tooze on 'How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World'
Reuters.com's Peter Thal Larsen talks to Adam Tooze, Columbia University history professor, who joins the dots from the 2008 crash to Brexit and U.S. elections. Podcast release date: 4 September 2018.
Professor Adam Tooze is author of Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World.
Domain: adamtooze.com
Twitter profile: History, economics, politics, theory. Professor, Columbia University. Director of the European Institute. Born UK, raised FRG (Germany).
Twitter: @adam_tooze
Tweets by adam_tooze
2018-09-22
Tech Review: 1) First Major Global eSports League; 2) eSports in China
1) First Major Global eSports League
Overwatch League: E-Sports Done Differently
Overwatch League (overwatchleague.com): An in-depth look at the first major global e-sports league with city-based teams. Fortune.com video above published Sep 5, 2018.
2) How eSports Became So Big In ChinaWe can’t wait for the #OWL2019 season!— Overwatch League (@overwatchleague) September 7, 2018
Here are the 8 new teams joining the league! pic.twitter.com/zhkrNYDlko
Jason Fung, global eSports director of Alisports (alisports.com), says the growth in internet cafes in China is a reason why professional gaming has taken off in a big way. CNBC.com video above published Sep 12, 2018.
3) Investing
Divergence between the U.S. equity market and the rest of the world is stark and unprecedented: "If one looks at price momentum – it is positive for US stocks and negative for Europe and Emerging markets across all relevant lookback windows. This has never happened before. Over the past 20 years, even the individual regional indices rarely had such a divergence (for instance, the divergence of US and Europe momentum happened only 2 times)."--JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic.Wall Street's Charging Bull
Europe did not overcome the effects of the 2008-2009 crisis: Professor Portes
U.S. dealt quickly with the problems of the banks – Europe did not, says Richard Portes, professor of economics at London Business School. CNBC.com video above published Sep 12, 2018
EU: Ten years after Lehman collapsed, where do European banks stand now? "European banks have been building core capital and strengthening their balance sheets. However, it has not been fast enough and challenges remain. Non-performing loans in Europe are more than double relative to all loans than in the U.S., exposure to sovereign debt and risky emerging economies remain too high and net income margins are very weak"--Daniel Lacalle, chief economist and investment officer, Tressis Gestion (tressis.com). See also "The Real Cost of the 2008 Financial Crisis"--NewYorker.com.
The flashpoint for the next crisis is likely to be in Europe, especially Italy, maintains John Mauldin, chairman of Mauldin Economics (mauldineconomics.com), “I think the choice of Europe is … going to have to put [all the debt] on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank ... If they don’t, then the euro zone breaks apart and we’re going to get a 50% valuation collapse.”
Hard Brexit: Brexit negotiations between UK and the EU are at an impasse. EU leaders said UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers plan would not work. May responded there will be no second referendum, assuring EU citizens living in the UK their rights would be protected--axios.com. Editor's note: UK needs to either prepare now for "Hard Brexit," negotiating "Free and Fair" trade deals with the U.S. and others, to replace UK's dependence on the EU market, or just surrender to being a vassal state of Brussels.
Emerging Markets: “The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”--Gary Shilling, president of consultancy A. Gary Shilling & Co. (agaryshilling.com).
China: "there are three troubling signs that China is a prime candidate to be the site of the next financial crisis: overheating in its real-estate sector, a roller-coaster stock market, and a rapidly growing shadow-banking sector"--Walden Bello in thenation.com.
4) ICYMI Tech News:
-- John Poole, Editor • Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
The flashpoint for the next crisis is likely to be in Europe, especially Italy, maintains John Mauldin, chairman of Mauldin Economics (mauldineconomics.com), “I think the choice of Europe is … going to have to put [all the debt] on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank ... If they don’t, then the euro zone breaks apart and we’re going to get a 50% valuation collapse.”
Hard Brexit: Brexit negotiations between UK and the EU are at an impasse. EU leaders said UK Prime Minister Theresa May's Chequers plan would not work. May responded there will be no second referendum, assuring EU citizens living in the UK their rights would be protected--axios.com. Editor's note: UK needs to either prepare now for "Hard Brexit," negotiating "Free and Fair" trade deals with the U.S. and others, to replace UK's dependence on the EU market, or just surrender to being a vassal state of Brussels.
Emerging Markets: “The ultimate thing that brings down financial markets is excess leverage … So, you look where’s the big leverage, and right now I think it’s in emerging markets.”--Gary Shilling, president of consultancy A. Gary Shilling & Co. (agaryshilling.com).
China: "there are three troubling signs that China is a prime candidate to be the site of the next financial crisis: overheating in its real-estate sector, a roller-coaster stock market, and a rapidly growing shadow-banking sector"--Walden Bello in thenation.com.
4) ICYMI Tech News:
- The Fourth Industrial Revolution is "connecting everyone and everything together.. All boundaries between us are being erased, and we’re being connected like we never have before. That’s what’s happening, and it’s very powerful."--Marc Benioff, CEO, Salesforce.com, Inc. Note also Dreamforce, San Francisco, Sep 25-28.
- Alphabet a/k/a Google $GOOGL $GOOG: Where in the World Is Larry Page?--Bloomberg.com.
- Apple Pay & Google Pay: 7-Eleven says Apple Pay and Google Pay are now accepted at nearly all of its 10,000+ locations across the U.S.
- Apple's New iPhones: What It Means For Investors--SeekingAlpha.com.
- Phone Call Scams will be nearly half of all cellphone calls by 2019--WashingtonPost.com.
- China's smartphone market shipped 104.8 million units in Q2 2018, declined by 5.9% year-on-year. Shipment of all leading brands increased except for Apple, which dropped by 12.5%. Huawei and Vivo both saw high growth of 21.7% and 24.3% year-on-year, respectively--ChinaInternetWatch.com.
- Crude Tech: USA Is Now The Largest Global Crude Oil Producer – Surpassing Russia and Saudi Arabia--climatedepot.com and eia.gov.
- Mary Meeker, legendary internet analyst, leaving renown Silicon Valley VC firm Kleiner Perkins, with three of her partners, to form a new VC firm of late-stage investors--recode.net.
-- John Poole, Editor • Domain Mondo
feedback & comments via twitter @DomainMondo
Follow @DomainMondo
DISCLAIMER
2018-09-10
Warren Buffett On The 2008 Financial Crisis (video) & Investing
Warren Buffett Explains the 2008 Financial Crisis
A decade after the financial crisis, billionaire investor Warren Buffett explains what was behind the 2008 mayhem, what we can do to limit the damage and opportunities missed last time. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 6, 2018.
Why Warren Buffett Said No to Lehman and AIG in 2008
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is famous on Wall Street for having the cash to make deals happen, even during a crisis. But in 2008, he turned down both Lehman Brothers and AIG when they asked for help. In an interview with WSJ, he explained why. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 7, 2018.
Warren Buffett's famous advice to investors and his wife's trustee:
A decade after the financial crisis, billionaire investor Warren Buffett explains what was behind the 2008 mayhem, what we can do to limit the damage and opportunities missed last time. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 6, 2018.
Why Warren Buffett Said No to Lehman and AIG in 2008
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is famous on Wall Street for having the cash to make deals happen, even during a crisis. But in 2008, he turned down both Lehman Brothers and AIG when they asked for help. In an interview with WSJ, he explained why. Wall Street Journal (wsj.com) video above published Sep 7, 2018.
Warren Buffett's famous advice to investors and his wife's trustee:
"Most investors, of course, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power. I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill. In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal.
"That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The main danger is that the timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. (Remember the late Barton Biggs’ observation: “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”) The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better longterm results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.
"If “investors” frenetically bought and sold farmland to each other, neither the yields nor prices of their crops would be increased. The only consequence of such behavior would be decreases in the overall earnings realized by the farm-owning population because of the substantial costs it would incur as it sought advice and switched properties. Nevertheless, both individuals and institutions will constantly be urged to be active by those who profit from giving advice or effecting transactions. The resulting frictional costs can be huge and, for investors in aggregate, devoid of benefit. So ignore the chatter, keep your costs minimal, and invest in stocks as you would in a farm.
"My money, I should add, is where my mouth is: What I advise here is essentially identical to certain instructions I’ve laid out in my will. One bequest provides that cash will be delivered to a trustee for my wife’s benefit. (I have to use cash for individual bequests, because all of my Berkshire shares will be fully distributed to certain philanthropic organizations over the ten years following the closing of my estate.) My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s [VFIAX or VFINX].) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers."--Warren Buffett, February 28, 2014 (pdf) (emphasis and links added)The S&P 500 Index is a major and widely-followed stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ, and meeting other requirements. The S&P 500 is a capitalization-weighted index, associated with many ticker symbols, such as: .INX and $SPX, depending on the market or website.
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| S&P 500 |
2017-10-16
German Finance Minister Schäuble Warns of Global Financial Crisis (video)
Schäuble warns of financial crisis
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Oct 9, 2017: Outgoing German finance chief says central bank policies risk forming ‘new bubbles’--Wolfgang Schäuble has warned that spiralling levels of global debt and liquidity present a serious risk to the world economy, in his parting shot as Germany’s finance minister.
See also:
Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 9, 2017: Most people would agree that the bond market is expensive. But is it in a bubble? Alan Greenspan thinks so. So will this bubble be popping anytime soon? Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro explains. #BondBubble
Financial Times (ft.com) video above published Oct 9, 2017: Outgoing German finance chief says central bank policies risk forming ‘new bubbles’--Wolfgang Schäuble has warned that spiralling levels of global debt and liquidity present a serious risk to the world economy, in his parting shot as Germany’s finance minister.
See also:
- Austria election 2017 results 15 Oct 2017: Eurosceptic Conservative Millennial Sebastian Kurz, age 31, declares victory--Europe's youngest leader--'Brussels Nightmare'
- FT.com: Paris and Berlin at odds over key plank of eurozone reform plans
- Merkel's Party Suffers Vote Setback in Germany's Lower Saxony on Sunday, Oct 15, 2017, with the poorest showing in 58 years for Angela Merkel's party, the CDU, in Lower Saxony (a German state larger than the Netherlands), further weakening Merkel as she tries to form an "awkward" alliance with pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and environmentalist Greens. Negotiations could well drag into 2018, reports Reuters.com.
What Tulips and the Great Recession Have in CommonMarkets may be underpricing global risks, #ECB official says https://t.co/GtHqgg19Pm via @markets #markets #bonds 3FX #bondbubble— Robert Burgess (@burgessansm) October 9, 2017
Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 9, 2017: Most people would agree that the bond market is expensive. But is it in a bubble? Alan Greenspan thinks so. So will this bubble be popping anytime soon? Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro explains. #BondBubble
Everybody Wants Duration Even as Fed Normalization Draws Near https://t.co/ViEa89tvwc via @markets #markets #bonds #bondbubble #Fed— Robert Burgess (@burgessansm) October 5, 2017
If you must own #bonds stick to short-term bonds…the #bondbubble is now back to where it was in July 2007!— Vern Sumnicht (@VernSumnicht) October 5, 2017
https://t.co/eKB1WPNL2I
2017-09-25
What Will It Take For A Stock Market Crash? (video)
What will it take for markets to crash?
Video above published Aug 18, 2017, by FT.com: As the US stock market gets into its eighth year of gains, and with global markets caught up in a bull market for stocks and other assets, the FT.com's Dan McCrum says the big question is, what will make markets crash and when will it happen? See also: Stock Market Warning Siren is Blaring | WolfStreet.com Aug 12, 2017.
But note Professor Shiller's take:
Mass Psychology Supports the Pricey Stock Market | NYTimes.com by Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale, 15 Sep 2017: "... current valuations make the market vulnerable. But it took more than high valuation numbers to precipitate those ugly declines in the past. The other ingredient was mass psychology ... where are we today? Mass psychology appears to be in a different, calmer place. Investors do not seem to have the concern they had in 1929 or 2000 that other investors might suddenly sell their holdings and get out of the stock market ... Why people are so calm about the high-priced market is a bit of a mystery. On this, I can only speculate ... I don’t really know. But the result is that while valuations remain very high there just doesn’t seem to be much evidence that many investors in the United States stock market are actively worrying today that other investors are on the verge of selling. Mass opinions may well change, but for now, in the critical psychological dimension, the stock market does not closely resemble the market in the dangerous years of 1929 or 2000. That doesn’t mean that there is no danger of a crash. But at the moment, the psychological preconditions for a spiraling downturn don’t appear to be in place.
The 2008 Financial Crisis: Explaining the Start
Video above published Aug 16, 2017, by WSJ.com: August 2007 marked the beginning of worst financial crisis since the great depression. A decade later, WSJ's finance and banking editors break down the events that led to the 2008 financial crisis.
Video above published Aug 18, 2017, by FT.com: As the US stock market gets into its eighth year of gains, and with global markets caught up in a bull market for stocks and other assets, the FT.com's Dan McCrum says the big question is, what will make markets crash and when will it happen? See also: Stock Market Warning Siren is Blaring | WolfStreet.com Aug 12, 2017.
But note Professor Shiller's take:
Mass Psychology Supports the Pricey Stock Market | NYTimes.com by Robert J. Shiller, Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale, 15 Sep 2017: "... current valuations make the market vulnerable. But it took more than high valuation numbers to precipitate those ugly declines in the past. The other ingredient was mass psychology ... where are we today? Mass psychology appears to be in a different, calmer place. Investors do not seem to have the concern they had in 1929 or 2000 that other investors might suddenly sell their holdings and get out of the stock market ... Why people are so calm about the high-priced market is a bit of a mystery. On this, I can only speculate ... I don’t really know. But the result is that while valuations remain very high there just doesn’t seem to be much evidence that many investors in the United States stock market are actively worrying today that other investors are on the verge of selling. Mass opinions may well change, but for now, in the critical psychological dimension, the stock market does not closely resemble the market in the dangerous years of 1929 or 2000. That doesn’t mean that there is no danger of a crash. But at the moment, the psychological preconditions for a spiraling downturn don’t appear to be in place.
The 2008 Financial Crisis: Explaining the Start
Video above published Aug 16, 2017, by WSJ.com: August 2007 marked the beginning of worst financial crisis since the great depression. A decade later, WSJ's finance and banking editors break down the events that led to the 2008 financial crisis.
2016-07-06
Deutsche Bank $DB $DBK, Italian Banks, Approaching a 'Lehman Moment'?
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| Top: Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are down 25% since the Brexit vote on June 23, 2016. Bottom: Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are down 92% since May 11, 2007. Source: google.com |
- Italian Banks Tumble, Monte Paschi Plunges To Record Low After ECB Letter | ZeroHedge.com 4 Jul 2016
- European stocks end lower as Italian banks, Volkswagen weigh | MarketWatch.com 4 Jul 2016
- Meanwhile At The Most Systemically Dangerous Bank In The World... | ZeroHedge.com 4 Jul 2016: "Deutsche Bank"
- Deutsche Bank to Trigger the Next Financial Crisis! | marketoracle.co.uk 4 Jul 2016
- http://stocktwits.com/symbol/DB?q=DB
- Deutsche Bank to Initiate the Next Financial Crisis? Stock Could Be Headed to Zero | TheStreet.com 5 Jul 2016: "If you thought Lehman Brothers was bad, you should watch Deutsche Bank. There are similarities that will scare you."
Here's the chart some people keep pointing to. The similarites between Deutsche Bank and Lehman's crash: https://t.co/2ujVCPo5bg$DB $LEH— StockTwits (@StockTwits) July 3, 2016
When DEUTSCHE BANK $DB and CREDIT SUISSE $CS FAIL they will blame it on Brexit and not the fact that this has been in motion for past 3 yrs.— 500pagesAday (@500pagesAday) July 5, 2016
$DB - It's already down 90% lol https://t.co/sx3SlrN9M7— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) July 1, 2016
- 23-29 Jun 2016: "... investor George Soros believed the U.K. would vote for Brexit ... and Soros was long the pound as the results were announced. After the vote, though, Soros shorted about $100 million worth of Deutsche Bank shares, targeting Germany's biggest lender as a potential victim of Britain's secession. It was a good bet: Deutsche has tanked since the June 23 vote, falling to the lowest level since Germany's DAX stock index was established in 1988 ..."--Bloomberg.com
See Brexit Triggers EU Power Struggle between Merkel and Juncker | spiegel.de: "... After Merkel speaks with Juncker on the phone that weekend, her belief that the Commission president is more a part of the problem than a part of the solution doesn't change. The chancellor believes that Juncker's appetite for power is one of the reasons why the British have turned their backs on Europe ..."
See also on Domain Mondo:
- Beyond Brexit: Four Forces Shaping the Future of Europe (video)
- Brexit Postscript: FTSE100 Roars, Theresa May, Sword in Hand, Next PM?
- Day After Brexit Vote Eurocrats Lost, Market Recovery, Path Forward
- Brexit: Will UK Vote to Leave or Remain in the European Union? "The June 23rd referendum on whether UK will leave or remain in the European Union (EU), may be the global watershed event of 2016 ... A lot is at stake beyond just British sovereignty vs. EU bureaucracy in Brussels."
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