30 January 2017

MacroView: First Nine Days of President Trump with Many More To Come

MacroView |  ©2016 DomainMondo.com
Domain Mondo's weekly review of  macro economic and investing news:
 
MacroView Feature •  Trump has now been President for nine days (noon Jan 20 - noon Jan 29) as I write this--and for those who really think that Friday Executive Order is the only thing that matters, I'll get this out of the way up front, readDonald Trump’s Refugee Executive Order: No Muslim Ban -- Separating Fact from Hysteria | NationalReview.com.

I agree with Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen writing in Axios.com:
"We can't stress this enough: Watch closely the specific, substantive moves of the Trump White House. Try to block out the white noise of outlandish statements and unforced errors, and the hyperventilating they provoke. Otherwise, you miss the big — and in some cases, radical — changes coming our way. In fact, White House officials tell us they welcome what seem like needless distractions, because it allows them to jam through transformative, disruptive ideas and orders without focused public scrutiny of any particular item ... Read the weekend papers, and flick through cable, and the unambiguous conclusion is that Trump's debut was pretty much a debacle. But was it? If you examine what he did based on what he wants to do and ignore much of what he says for show, this was actually a remarkably productive start. By the White House's count, 13 presidential actions in first week tied to specific campaign promises ..." (emphasis added, read more at link above)
Here's a quick look at some of what Trump did in his first nine days:

The biggest problem for investors and the general public right now is getting accurate news and information without all the hype, hysteria and drama. The news media (MSMare wellsprings of disinformation and misinformation--Trump's Steve Bannon:
"I'm not talking about everybody, but a big portion of the media--the dishonesty, total deceit and deception. It makes them certainly partially the opposition party, absolutely. I think they're much more capable than the opposition party. The opposition party is losing badly. Now the media is on the opposition party's side."
And as Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote above, the sideshows and media hysteria distract from the real events occurring in plain sight and under the radar that investors (and the public) need to know about. Unfortunately, mainstream media never got over getting the election so wrong ("Trump has no path to 270 electoral votes"), so they abandoned all pretense of journalistic ethics, and wasted weeks unsuccessfully working hand-in-hand with the neo-con/neo-liberal Washington establishment in an attempt to de-legitimize Trump's election, a media crusade which probably reached its nadir with Obama's Democratic-appointee-led "intelligence community" leaking (directly or indirectly), a smear in the form of an unvetted "Russian dossier" published by BuzzFeed which was then given wide coverage through links on CNN and coverage by other major media news operations.

Read: The Reason You Can’t Stand the News Anymore. | Medium.com"The methods used to fund modern journalism simultaneously undermine trust in the news outlets." That's right, the business models of most news organizations are broken and they are failing financially. Google and Facebook are sucking up most digital ad revenues. News media are desperately competing for clicks, and it is showing--the public have lost trust in the media. Even Margaret Sullivan of the Washington Post has taken notice.

So what's an investor (or member of the general public) to do? Unless you want to be swamped by the distortion, noise, spin, and outright false or #FakeNews, you have to carefully consider the source of anything you read or hear, and take time to curate your sources of "news and information." Here's one list I've curated.

Other Macro Economic and Investing News:

•  Jeff Gundlach predicted Trump would win, what's he think now? "It’s typical for the stock market to go up until the inauguration and then fall. It happened with Ronald Reagan, too. I think we will see something similar—it will have a pullback, at a minimum. There will be an attempt to build infrastructure and borrow a lot of money to do it. There will be potential for a pick-up in growth, an increase in interest rates, which has already happened, and potential for inflation."--Invest Like a Legend: Jeffrey Gundlach | TheGlobeandMail.com"... being successful in investing is to understand human nature."

•  Economist: Stock Market Gained $2T in Wealth Since Trump Elected | FoxNews.com and U.S. Rally Is the Envy of Stock Markets Worldwide | WSJ.com: "... U.S. stock markets have rallied since the President’s victory more than two months ago, rising on improved economic data and hopes Mr. Trump can stimulate the economy with tax cuts and infrastructure spending while rolling back regulations. But most major stock markets around the globe haven’t enjoyed the same postelection bump, and many remain far below their record levels ..."

•  Brexit UpdateLondon Bankers May Dodge One-Way Trip to Frankfurt | Lipper Alpha Insight | ThomsonReuters.com.

•  Trump Effect? California's stormy winter sets snowfall record for Mammoth resorts (over 20 feet in one month): "The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which provides a third of the state’s water when it melts in the spring and summer, is at nearly 200% of average for this time of year. Many of the state’s biggest reservoirs are full, and much of the northern half of the state is considered to be out of drought conditions. More storms are on the way, state climatologists said."--LATimes.com

One More Thing:  Pundits, Facts and the Future | Bloomberg.com"News media provide an opportunity for rampant confirmation bias ... for investors, as most of what is news is not only old, it often already is reflected in market prices ... "


-- John Poole, Editor, Domain Mondo 

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