2017-05-05

French Voters Skeptical of Macron & Le Pen: Is France "Done"?

FRANCE 24 Live – International Breaking News & Top stories - 24/7 stream

Watch election coverage above as France votes Sunday, May 7, 2017, for a new President and neither of the two runoff candidates, Macron and Le Pen, are representing a major French party. What's likely to happen? Video courtesy of France24.com.

UPDATE May 7, 2017 (rev. May 8): Macron wins runoff with low voter turnout and historic high numbers of voters voting blank or spoiled ballots--out of France's reported 51 million registered voters, 25.4% of registered voters did not vote, 11.4% of registered voters voted a spoiled or blank ballot, and the remaining voters split between Macron 66% and Le Pen 34%--hence Macron won by getting only 20.75 million (updated) votes. Legislative elections in France are scheduled to take place on 3, 10-11 June 2017 and 17-18 June 2017 to elect the 577 members of the 15th National Assembly of the French Fifth Republic. See also: Many French voters yet to be convinced by Macron | Reuters.com 8 May 2017.

Analysis and opinion (as of May 5, 2017):

First, the situation in France may be a lot worse than many would have you believe--
Some media, including Reuters.com, have reported that French voters are skeptical and do not think either Macron or Le Pen have answers on either unemployment or security (terrorism). Reportedly 45 percent of voters believe neither Macron nor Le Pen would put an end to unemployment (unemployment has for years been close to 10 percent in France), and 36 percent of voters say neither candidate is able to protect France from terrorist attacks. France has been under a state of emergency since 2015 and more than 230 people have been killed in terrorist attacks over the past two years. Under this scenario, the runoff vote on Sunday is a "no-win election" for the French people.
Second, here's what's likely to happen: the peculiar Emmanuel Macron will win accompanied by pro-EU elites and establishment media cheering, mistakenly believing "populism is over." Then the rot will continue while Macron somehow tries to govern, though you won't notice much reporting on this if you are only following the establishment media "narratives."

Look at the infographic below (thousands of millionaires flee France). France has a problem. Is it because, like most of Europe, it is trapped in a failed experimental monetary system (the "euro"--monetary union without fiscal union does not work), apparently resigned to high unemployment, and overwhelmed by chaotic out-of-control immigration, and an inability to absorb or culturally integrate its own growing and dissatisfied Muslim minorities? Expect more trouble ahead. This is far from over. Get out if, and while, you can. The Brexiteers have got it right. More will be revealed. See: Euro Outlook for 2017 | Fortune.com"Markets sense that the system is not viable in the long run—speculators attack when they smell blood. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s assertion that he will do “whatever it takes” has worked wonders—for longer than anyone expected. But it is a confidence trick: It works only because market participants believe it will work."

Third, if you're doing a deal in Europe and your counterparts will not agree to U.S. law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, why would you not insist on English law and jurisdiction governing the transaction, and close it in London? Otherwise, you too could end up "trapped."

All of the above has ramifications for global markets and investors, and the shift in global power from West to East. Caveat Emptor.

Follow the money--thousands of millionaires flee France--

Millionaire Migrants? Countries That Rich People Are Flocking To and From:
Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist

See also on Domain Mondo: The French Election & Global Markets, Italy A Threat to the Euro (videos) (April 21, 2017)

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