2018-01-12

Professor Scott Galloway's 2018 Predictions & 2017 Predictions Reviewed

Prof Galloway's 2017 / 2018 Predictions

Scott Galloway looks back at his 2017 predictions as well as his predictions for 2018: the breakup of big tech will begin, Snap will be acquired, and Alexa will emerge as the iPhone of the next decade. Song: Beck - Heart Is A Drum. L2inc.com video above published Jan 11, 2018.

Transcript via YouTube.com (auto-generated, unedited):
00:00  [Music]
00:01  we hold our feet to the fire and revisit
00:04  our January 2017 predictions regarding
00:07  the upcoming year a prediction we made
00:10  Twitter will increase in relevance and
00:12  decrease in value sort of right sort of
00:14  wrong Twitter's gained relevance but its
00:16  stock is also a prediction Verizon will
00:19  walk from or shave 1 billion dollars
00:22  plus from the purchase price of Yahoo as
00:24  they recognize they may be inviting mr.
00:27  death the mother of all liabilities into
00:29  their house an honourable mentioned
00:31  Verizon shaved 350 million dollars from
00:34  the purchase price of Yahoo and the deal
00:37  closed prediction hacking phishing
00:39  schemes and ransomware will reach crisis
00:42  proportions and take center stage in
00:44  Congress so we got this one right
00:46  Equifax uber the SEC and Chipotle among
00:49  others were hacked
00:51  seriously hacked prediction will see
00:54  enormous right downs from Unilever and
00:56  Walmart's acquisition of Dollar Shave
00:57  Club and jet comm respectively wrong
01:01  mostly Walmart's acquisition of jet comm
01:03  was not only not a write down but it's
01:06  likely turning out to be a genius
01:08  acquisition was jet comm worth three
01:11  billion dollars no was it worth more
01:13  than three billion dollars to Walmart
01:15  yes Walmart likely the retailer up 2017
01:19  has been able to report your on your
01:21  ecommerce gains of 60 plus percent
01:23  likely adding tens of billions of
01:25  dollars to its market capitalization
01:27  prediction Amazon having bested Apple
01:30  and Google and voice and machine
01:32  learning will run a successful test for
01:34  0 click retail we're a little early on
01:36  this but it's looking good Amazon Prime
01:39  wardrobe sounds close you can try on and
01:41  decide if you want to buy the firm is
01:43  now the fourth most valuable company in
01:45  the world and its stock was up 50
01:48  percent in 17 prediction Netflix becomes
01:50  the operating system for the other
01:52  screen in our life television and
01:54  becomes the fifth Horseman share price
01:56  doubles or is acquired by one of the
01:58  horsemen or Disney we were mostly right
02:01  here Netflix is becoming the operating
02:03  system for television and its stock was
02:05  up 50% in 17 prediction Pinterest value
02:09  will fall 50 plus percent as week
02:11  management and turnover
02:12  again to Matassa ties we got this wrong
02:14  we don't know what the value is it's a
02:16  private company but it wasn't cut in
02:17  half prediction Airbnb becomes the most
02:20  disruptive private company other than
02:22  Amazon and business and has the IPO
02:24  everyone that's expecting from snap by
02:26  the end of the year the firm is worth
02:28  more than uber sort of not really at the
02:30  beginning of 2017
02:32  uber was valued four times Airbnb it our
02:35  B&B; is next round may approach or even
02:37  past the most recent valuation on uber
02:39  it's been a great year for Airbnb and 81
02:42  for uber prediction we work losses
02:44  seventy-five percent of its value from
02:46  peak 16 billion and becomes a poster
02:49  child of unicorn mania wrong we work has
02:51  announced a bunch of innovative pilots
02:53  that are going to extend the consensual
02:55  hallucination between the firm and the
02:57  markets prediction snapchat will not go
02:59  public as it becomes evident they are
03:01  losing tractions at the hands of
03:03  instagram so so snap did get out but its
03:06  stock has been cut in half and is
03:09  screwed those are cones for the five top
03:11  non gaming apps globally and all four
03:13  have their guns squarely pointed at what
03:17  is the name of that company snap and now
03:22  our predictions for 2018 the break-up a
03:25  big tech begins wage growth fails to
03:27  materialize and someone does the math
03:29  highlighting that the heirs of Walden
03:31  Bezos Zuckerberg Gates Brin and page
03:33  will soon be worth more than two-thirds
03:36  of US households combined prediction
03:39  Amazon passes Apple and value prediction
03:42  Alexa emerges as the iPhone of the next
03:44  decade fueling Amazon to sent past 1
03:46  trillion in market capitalization voice
03:49  makes the mobile Wars look like a border
03:51  skirmish as big tech in the media
03:53  industry tried to establish their place
03:54  in an increasingly Amazon world
03:57  cryptocurrencies crash by over 50% in a
04:01  month that's pretty that's a pretty
04:02  wimpy prediction but it's likely going
04:04  to happen in the first quarter it will
04:06  then rock it past 20,000 dollars as
04:08  crypto specifically Bitcoin has become a
04:11  Chaos proxy and we are headed towards a
04:12  constitutional crisis which will confirm
04:15  the Millennials are smart to not have
04:17  trust in their institutions or the
04:19  Federal Reserve prediction the ad tech
04:22  landscape goes from bad to worse is the
04:24  industry's duopoly Facebook and
04:26  Google cements the industry structural
04:28  decline large communications
04:30  conglomerates had twenty to fifty
04:31  percent of their value when their growth
04:33  engines digital agencies stall as again
04:36  the duopoly begins making online
04:38  creative and value-added services less
04:41  valuable twitter snap BuzzFeed and
04:44  Pinterest are acquired or valued in
04:46  subsequent rounds for between 25 and 50
04:49  percent less than their market highs has
04:51  all continued to underwhelm at the hands
04:53  of the duopoly almost every digital
04:56  marketing content darling refinery29
04:58  AppNexus etc becomes a distressed asset
05:02  M&A; activity it's a fever pitch of
05:04  horizontal and vertical tie ups as
05:06  industry bulks up in response again to
05:10  Amazon online furniture firm wayfarer
05:12  shares
05:13  crash a dot-com business model implodes
05:15  as weak customer loyalty Amazon private
05:18  label furniture brands and strong
05:20  offline brands including William Sonoma
05:21  and RH take the firm to the woodshed
05:24  this firm wafer is beginning to look
05:26  increasingly like blue apron Amazon
05:29  acquires either Nordstrom Kara for won't
05:32  acquire Target Walmart establishes a
05:35  leadership position in online grocery
05:37  with pickup everyone else including
05:39  Target and amazon has wrongly focused on
05:41  delivery this puts even more pressure on
05:44  traditional brick-and-mortar retail and
05:46  forces Kroger to make a big acquisition
05:47  my guests instacart are possibly UK best
05:50  okata
05:51  large CPG firms will either merge or
05:54  forward integrate and acquire retail as
05:56  they realize a voice-controlled world is
05:58  really really bad for them disney
06:00  becomes the fifth Horseman disney is the
06:03  only old economy firm with the scale
06:05  stones access to capital and leadership
06:08  to develop a prime like offering disney
06:10  will offer a prime Netflix like member
06:12  offering that will include a fat bundle
06:14  of video programming and preferred
06:16  access to other assets including cruises
06:19  parks and the likes the stock
06:21  outperforms its peers and becomes the
06:23  first old economy firm to take on big
06:26  tech Facebook stock Peaks the suck
06:29  becomes the unwitting poster child for
06:31  the movement against big tech as a
06:33  series of half-measures in response to
06:35  the Russian interference and the launch
06:37  of a gateway drug a social media
06:39  platform for kids
06:40  furnishes reputation is the most
06:42  tone-deaf CEO in tech business will
06:44  continue to grow but multiple erosion
06:47  will occur due to the threat of
06:48  regulation a nation in Europe bans one
06:51  or more of the four opting for the
06:52  Chinese model of stealing the IP
06:54  propping up a local entrepreneur and
06:57  capturing the value domestically times
06:59  2018 Person of the Year Robert S
07:02  Mulliken third Marine Division Vietnam
07:05  1969 no bone spurs and finally the world
07:09  continues to be a better place infant
07:11  mortality the likelihood of death at the
07:13  hands of another human deaths from
07:15  infectious disease and wealth inequality
07:17  between the poorest and wealthiest
07:19  nations continues to decline the number
07:22  of girls attending college global income
07:24  and great original scripted television
07:26  continue to increase we'll see you next
07:30 week
07:34  [Music]
07:46  [Music]

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