Showing posts with label Article50. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Article50. Show all posts

2019-04-10

Brexit Mar 29, 2019? Apr 12? Oct 31? - Jan 31, 2020

January 31, 2020: Congrats & Godspeed to the UK on its new beginning! #Brexit #Democracy #UnitedKingdom
2019 Dec 12 UK General Election Results: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party wins a large majority with 365 seats to Labour's 203, SNP 48, LibDem 11, DUP 8, Others 15.

Live coverage from ITV News as the results of the 2019 UK General Election come in. 

 See also @TelePolitics and @bbcelection and bbc.com/news/election/2019 and Results via Google.

During a General Election, UK voters in each local constituency select one MP (Minister of Parliament) to represent the local constituency in the UK House of Commons. The UK uses a first past the post voting system. This means that the MP that receives the most votes (plurality) will win the constituency's seat in parliament. The overall number of votes a party receives across the country is irrelevant, each MP is elected by local constituency. However, the 'winning party' must gain a majority number of seats in an election or be forced to form a coalition with another party in order to form a government.  Although there are a total of 650 seats in the House of Commons, the number of seats a party needs to claim an effective majority in the House of Commons may only be 320 seats.

Voters: anyone aged 18 or over can vote as long as they are registered and a British citizen or qualifying citizen of the Commonwealth or Republic of Ireland.

 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is projected to win a majority in parliament at the Dec. 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the 2017 election.

 Nov 17, 2019: UK PM Boris Johnson pledges to end Brexit uncertainty, says it has paralyzed the economy.

 Nov 13, 2019: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised he would end the “unbearable” uncertainty around Brexit if he wins the December 12th election, saying that political paralysis was affecting investment decisions in the country.
SavantaComRes survey Nov. 13 and 14: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party 41% (up 1%), Labour 33%, pro-European Union Liberal Democrats 14%, and the Brexit Party 5%.
Nov 5:, 2019: The U.S. has pushed past Germany and France as the most common trading partner for businesses in the UK, and looks set to keep this position after the UK leaves the European Union, according to an annual survey by HSBC.

Oct 29, 2019: General Election on December 12th. 
Geoffrey Cox, Attorney General: "This Parliament Is A Disgrace!" (video).
Oct 28, 2019: France caves, EU Gives Brexit Extension to January 31, 2020.
Another Delay = more uncertainty = Recession.
Oct 25, 2019: Asked what France made of other EU countries’ preference for a long-term extension to Jan. 31, the French official said: “This period of uncertainty is toxic. What is the point of just giving time to time?”

 Deal or No-Deal Brexit October 31? [Editor's note: 589 of 650 MPs were elected in 2017 on a manifesto to get Brexit done.]
Oct 23: France to the Rescue? Macron [or someone else] may veto EU extension (Editor's note: that would be in the best interests of the EU, France, and the UK). France does not want the UK blocking its agenda in the European Parliament. France gains seats in the European Parliament if the UK leaves, but Germany does not. For many reasons it makes sense for French President Emmanuel Macron to help Boris Johnson.
"As one Brexiteer explained to me: We joined a simple trade agreement with open borders to the world, but that mission-crept into a closed economy heading towards an unlikely political union bound together in common currency that shackles most countries to perpetual penury, in a system designed and promoted by the French to pursue their 400 year historical goal of European hegemony."--Bill Blain.
Oct 22: House of Commons defeats "Programme motion" which in effect makes it impossible for Parliament (House of Commons and House of Lords) to pass the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill (pdf) before October 31, 2019, The "EU Bill" is "in limbo" now, subject to review by a House of Commons committee. Editor's note: it is now clear that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is holding the House of Commons accountable for its 'games' to delay and deny his 'Brexit deal.'  See also Pound, Stocks Slide As Plan For Whirlwind Brexit-Deal Votes Defeated - The final total: 308-322 (Oct 22, 2019).

House of Commons LIVE Video, Tuesday, Oct 22, 2019 (starts 11:30 am London).

 Oct 19: British Pound Tumbles 1% In Weekend Markets After Brexit Vote Delayed
UK House of Commons debate (video), Saturday, 19 October 2019.

 Oct 17: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson secures EU approval for 'no delay' Brexit deal. 
UPDATE 15 Oct 2019: UK and EU reportedly "closing in" on a 'Brexit deal' as negotiating teams work on legal text. See also An Alternative Perspective on the Enigmatic Brexit Process by  Steven Guinness: The Brexit Party "stand to be the main beneficiaries of another Article 50 extension."

 UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Sunday (Oct 6, 2019) that the UK could do a deal if the EU was willing.“But they should be under no illusions or misapprehensions,” he said, adding, “There will be no more dither or delay, on Oct. 31 we are going to get Brexit done.”

 Johnson’s senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, said on Monday (Sep 30, 2019) that Brexit would definitely take place on Oct. 31. When asked how Britain’s EU exit could take place, given that there is a law which orders the prime minister to seek a delay to Brexit if parliament has not approved a deal, Cummings said: “Well, we shall just have to see won’t we.” UK finance minister Sajid Javid has also said the UK will leave the EU on Oct. 31. Also: Brexit Irony: EU Rejects Its Own Proposal (Boris Johnson Proposed a Northern Ireland solution the EU originally proposed);

 "Get ready for Brexit. The UK will leave the EU on 31 October 2019. Answer a few questions to find out how you or your business should prepare ..."--gov.uk/brexit
Oct 2, 2019: World Trade Organization (WTO) gave the U.S. approval to impose $7.5 billion in tariffs on E.U. goods to compensate for illegal EU subsidies to Airbus.  In addition to the 10% tariffs on aircraft, EU goods affected by 25% tariffs which go into effect October 18, 2019 (pdf), include cheese and dairy products, French wines, Scotch whisky, Irish whisky, and wool clothing from the UK. "For years, Europe has been providing massive subsidies to Airbus that have seriously injured the U.S. aerospace industry and our workers," said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in a statement Wednesday. Editor's note: the tariffs on UK goods, including Scotch whisky, will likely be dropped after the UK leaves the EU on October 31, 2019, when a new trade deal is negotiated between the UK and U.S. 
City of London, World Financial Centre: In a brief statement on Tuesday (Oct 8, 2019), the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) acknowledged that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) had dropped its $40 billion purchase offer (which LSEG had already rejected). In addition, LSEG reaffirmed it “remains committed to and makes good progress” on its proposed acquisition of Refinitiv, expected to be completed next year.

Interest Rate Derivatives Trading Explodes to $6.5 Trillion per day--volume of over-the-counter (OTC) interest rate derivatives traded globally soared by 141% in three years to $6.5 trillion per day in April 2019, according to the Bank for International Settlements’ new Triennial Survey of Global Derivatives Markets. Where most of the trading OTC interest rate derivatives takes place? City of London (UK); $3.7 trillion per day or 56% of all global trades were executed at trading desks in the United Kingdom, a 213% increase from the $1.18 trillion of average daily turnover in April 2016. (#2 is the U.S. at $2.35 trillion per day, or 32% of the global turnover, up 9.8% from $1.24 trillion in 2016). Even after three years of regulatory tussles with its biggest trading partner, the EU, the UK has not only maintained its grip on the vast and fast growing OTC derivatives markets, it’s strengthened it, pulling away from New York and leaving Paris in the dust. “London is the capital of capital and this report shows that despite challenging times, the fundamentals of the City remain strong,” said Catherine McGuinness, policy chair at the City of London Corporation, the municipal governing body.

UK trading also dominates in global currency markets. In April 2019, its FX trading desks generated a turnover of $3.58 trillion per day, up from $2.41 trillion per day in 2016, taking its share of total global FX activity from 37% to 43%. By contrast, the US share of trading declined during the same period from 20% to 17%.
Financial analytics firm Mosaic Smart Data has doubled the number of developers and quantitative analysts it employs since 2018 at its London base, where nearly 40 now crunch numbers to help banks trade foreign exchange and bonds. “London is hard to beat ... The depth and diversity of the skill pool here is unrivalled,” said Matthew Hodgson, founder of Mosaic, one of the new fintech companies in the forex industry.
Even Dutch bank ING chose London to centralize its forex trading operations, previously scattered across various cities. ING’s global forex and rates boss Gary Prince said it was more efficient to run everything from ING's London offices.
Meanwhile, M&G Prudential is proceeding with its $1.1 billion ‘Gotham’ Project in London's financial district, consisting of 905,000 square feet (about 84,000 square meters) of office space at 40 Leadenhall Street. And Goldman Sachs has set up a disaster recovery trading floor in a WeWork (WE) space in central London to allow the bank to continue operating in the event of a major disaster, the Financial Times reports. The space replaces an existing site on Paternoster Square near the London Stock Exchange, and is a "near-site business continuity location," where Goldman's most critical London traders could quickly relocate if an emergency affected its new £1.2B European headquarters at nearby Plumtree Court.

See also London retains global finance throne amid Brexit chaos and Euro Derivatives Trading: Andrew Bailey, chief executive of Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority, has said it's for the EU to act to avoid overlaps in derivatives trading: “Currently all OTC derivatives subject to the EU DTO have their main pool of liquidity on a UK venue ... Without action, EU firms may lose access to UK liquidity pools and liquidity would be fragmented, harming both markets." There are 11 trading platforms in the EU27 that market participants could use, with nearly 40 in the United States endorsed by the EU, along with five in Singapore;  and Brexit prompts ESM to switch out of English bond law--Eurozone’s bailout fund to instead use Luxembourg law for its future borrowings starting October.

Dutch Ports Brexit Handbook
"Rotterdam’s port business community is busily preparing for Brexit. After all: the best-prepared port will have a preferential position within the European playing field."--Dutch Ports Brexit Handbook  (pdf). Brexit impact on the Netherlands: 55% of shortsea traffic and 90% of ro-ro transhipment via Dutch ports concerns trade with the United Kingdom.--https://www.getreadyforbrexit.eu/en/

10 Aug 2019 Update-- No-Deal Brexit October 31, 2019: Still More 'Remainer' Delusions--'Whiners & Remoaners'--Still Confused? Read  Eurointelligence.com: "Today we would like to debunk the myth that the UK parliament can stop the no-deal Brexit. Under EU law - the law that matters in this specific discussion - there are only two technical possibilities for the UK parliament to frustrate an October 31st Brexit. The first and the only certain route is a majority in favour of unilateral revocation of Brexit. No such majority exists. This leaves a less certain pathway: to seek a further Art. 50 extension. Since Boris Johnson refuses to do this, it would have to involve a new prime minister before October ... So, before we get to the constitutionally tricky question of what would happen in case Johnson simply refuses to go even if parliament were to huddle around an alternative, we better stop at this point and look at the numbers. They are not there. The numbers for unilateral revocation are not there either. This means that parliament cannot stop a no-deal Brexit on its own." --Or as Dominic Cummings, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's most senior adviser, recently said, "Politicians don't get to choose which votes they respect." Therefore, unless the European Union abandons its insistence on the thrice-rejected withdrawal agreement, a no-deal Brexit will happen October 31, 2019.

Original Brexit Date: 29 March 2019, 11:00 P.M. (London), then extended to Friday, 12 April 2019.
10 Apr 2019: EU leaders agreed to extend UK's exit date to October 31, 2019.

Previously on DomainMondo.com:
Links:


 Looking back at Theresa May's dysfunctional government: Theresa May's Brexit statement (video) to the House of Commons after emergency EU summit 11 April 2019. Theresa May gave a statement to the House of Commons after being granted another Brexit extension by the European Union until 31 October 2019. See also European Council (Art. 50) Press conference at end of meeting 10 April 2019. Other news sources: DW News Livestream  (Deutsche Welle is Germany’s international broadcaster), and FRANCE 24 Live news from Paris, France, via YouTube.

 Special European Council (Art.50), April 10, 2019, 18:00 in Brussels (12 noon EDT). Agenda highlights: EU27 leaders will meet on 10 April 2019 to discuss the latest developments on Brexit. "In view of the rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons, I have decided to call a European Council on 10 April," confirmed President Donald Tusk on 29 March, following the vote in the UK House of Commons.

On 5 April Theresa May, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, sent a letter to Donald Tusk (pdf), President of the European Council, asking for a further extension to the Article 50 period. She proposed the date of 30 June 2019, adding that the UK government would continue to prepare to hold European Parliament elections should the UK still be a member at the time of the elections.

On 21 March EU27 leaders decided to delay the Brexit date until 12 April 2019, should the withdrawal agreement be rejected.
Original posting title: "Emergency European Summit on Brexit, Wednesday, April 10"

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2016-07-14

Theresa May's First Speech As UK Prime Minister, Brexit, The Way Forward

Theresa May's  First Speech As UK Prime Minister:

Video above: Theresa May speaking at No. 10 Downing Street, London, July 13, 2016. May emphasized unity and social justice in her first speech as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

David Cameron's last day as UK Prime Minister:

David Cameron was given a rousing send off by MPs in the House of Commons. It was his last ever Prime Minister's Questions (PMQ), and in among the serious stuff - there were plenty of jibes and jokes and a few gentle words of thanks. He said he would miss it. Most importantly, at 3:27 in the video above, David Cameron answers the question from a Scottish MP about David Cameron's advice to his successor, Theresa May, concerning the way forward: 
"My advice to my successor [Theresa May] who is a brilliant negotiator, is that we should try to be as close to the European Union as we can be for the [mutual] benefits of trade, cooperation and security. The [English] Channel will not get any wider once we we leave the European Union, and that is the relationship we should seek."
While the British Pound Sterling (UK currency) has fallen since the Brexit vote on June 23, in relation to the U.S. dollar and Euro, thereby providing incentives for the British tourism industry, foreign investment into the UK, and UK exports, many will be watching what the Bank of England (BoE) does Thursday:

Euro | Pound Sterling Forecast | poundsterlingforecast.com July 13, 2016: "With a rate cut to 0.25% likely either tomorrow or next month and the chance of further Quantitative Easing (QE) being introduced, I expect the recent Sterling recovery to come under further pressure should the scenario unfold as I expect."

However, remember the current interest rate of the BoE is .50, while the European Central Bank (ECB) has resorted to negative interest rates, and currently has an interest rate of -0-% in an attempt to deal with the Eurozone's troubled finances and economy.

Opinion/Analysis: Theresa May would be wise to begin free trade negotiations with nations outside the EU, as soon as possible, with those agreements each having a self-executing "effective date" upon UK's departure from the EU. This would be beneficial for two reasons:
  1. to reset expectations (and fears) away from the EU, and focus on the future and opening of world markets to the UK, including London's role as a global financial center; 
  2. those agreements may become "templates" for the UK-EU agreement. Once the EU sees the "deals" the United Kingdom strikes with nations not in the EU such as Canada, U.S., Australia, New Zealand, China, Norway, and others, it is likely to want equal or even better terms for the EU since the United Kingdom is the world's fifth biggest economy and Germany's third largest export market. Germany's unions and businesses may likely drive the final negotiations, not Juncker et al.
Brexit Calendar--what's ahead: May has said there will be no UK general election “until 2020,” giving her plenty of time as Prime Minister to negotiate a transition and change in relationships between the UK and EU, and the UK and rest of world. Theresa May has also said she won’t trigger Article 50 to begin formal departure from the EU until 2017 at the earliest, and the process could take up to two years to complete. Here are some key dates within the near term:
  • July 18: Vote on the renewal of the UK Trident nuclear deterrent. May has said it would be “sheer madness” to give up the weapons system.
  • July 20: May's first Prime Minister’s Questions time in the House of Commons.
  • July 21: UK Parliament goes on summer recess until Sept. 5.
  • August: European officials go on vacation. May has promised a new government department, led by a pro-Brexit minister, to handle the UK's negotiations with the EU. This could be set up in August. UPDATE*: Theresa May has now announced her Brexit team (see below).
  • September 4-5: G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China. May will meet many global counterparts for the first time.
  • September 16: EU leaders meet without the UK for a summit and to chart the EU’s future direction.
  • October 5: An EU meeting on Afghanistan could be May’s first meeting in Brussels as Prime Minister.
  • November 8: U.S. Presidential election. May is well-positioned to continue the UK-US "special relationship" irrespective of whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is elected.
*UPDATE Brexit means Brexit: Prime Minister Theresa May has handed responsibility for Brexit negotiations to those who campaigned to leave, appointing Boris Johnson as foreign secretary, David Davis as Brexit czar, and Liam Fox as chief of international trade negotiations.
  • Foreign Secretary: Boris Johnson – probably the biggest surprise among the appointments, Johnson, who was born in New York, was a leader of the Brexit Leave Campaign, and is not known for his "diplomatic skills"--he once compared Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee for President, to “a sadistic nurse in a mental hospital” and said she is “everything I came into politics to oppose.” When Johnson was in charge of the Spectator magazine, an editorial described President George W. Bush as a “cross-eyed Texan warmonger” who “epitomises the arrogance of American foreign policy.” He also compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Dobby the House Elf (from the Harry Potter films), and called him “a ruthless and manipulative tyrant.” Long before he was elected Mayor of London, Johnson, now 52, became a Euroskeptic during the 1990s through his work as a reporter in Brussels for the Daily Telegraph newspaper. Look out Jean-Claude Juncker! 
  • Brexit Secretary: David Davis  – Davis, a Euroskeptic who has served as a minister of state for Europe and Conservative Party chairman, was appointed “Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union.” 
  • Secretary of State for International Trade: Liam Fox – Fox, a prominent Euroskeptic, will negotiate new trade deals for the United Kingdom, and work closely with Davis.
  • Chancellor of the Exchequer: Philip Hammond – Hammond’s  background is business, working in property, construction and oil and gas. Experienced in negotiating with EU counterparts from his time in the foreign office, he will work closely with Brexit czar Davis;
  • Home Secretary: Amber Rudd - As energy secretary she represented the UK in climate change talks, gaining negotiating experience that will aid her in immigration negotiations. She previously worked in investment banking for JPMorgan and then in venture capital. She was also an aide to former Chancellor George Osborne.
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