Showing posts with label Jerome Powell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jerome Powell. Show all posts

2018-11-29

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Full Speech Nov 28 on the US Economy

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Full Speech on the US Economy

Video above published Nov 28, 2018: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Nov 28, 2018, at the Economic Club of New York  (domain: econclubny.org) on the state of the U.S. economy and the pace of interest rates.

Jerome H. Powell took office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. Mr. Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.

The stock market reacted very favorably to Chairman Powell's speech:


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2018-02-27

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Testifies Before Congress Tuesday

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, February 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET to deliver the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and to discuss the state of the economy.

"Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy"

Hearing entitled “Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy” | House Committee on Financial Services: Tuesday, February 27, 2018 10:00 am ET in 2128 Rayburn HOB (Full Committee)--Witness List: The Honorable Jerome H. Powell, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Committee Memorandum (pdf) embed below:

Report embed below:

On Thursday March 1, 2018, 10:00 a.m. ET Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee--The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - Hearings - U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs: "March 1, 2018 10:00 AM 538 Dirksen Senate Office Building,  hearing on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” The witness will be: The Honorable Jerome H. Powell, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System."
See also:

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2017-12-13

Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rates Announcement & Press Conference

FOMC Press Conference December 13, 2017:

LIVE Wednesday, Dec 13, 2017: Fed Chair Janet Yellen's FOMC press conference scheduled for 2:30 pm EST. Her previous FOMC Press Conference was September 20, 2017 (pdf), video available here.

UPDATE: The U.S. central bank--the Federal Reserve (domain: federalreserve.gov) or "the Fed"--started its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday and its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and on Wednesday made its announcement on interest rates:
"The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.50 percent, effective December 14, 2017 ... Effective December 14, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.25 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day."--source: Dec 13 Implementation Note
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate. Read more:
FOMC Statement: PDF | HTMLImplementation Note; Projection Materials PDF | HTML

Note: The Fed was expected to hike near-term interest rates, especially after last Friday's strong jobs report.

Roach: Fed Should Move Aggressively to Normalize Rates

Bloomberg.com video above published Dec 11, 2017: Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University, discusses debt levels in Asia, including China, and his outlook for interest rate hikes from the Fed. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."

President Trump's nominee, Jerome Powell, will take over as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the end of Janet Yellen's term, subject to confirmation by vote of the full U.S. Senate. On December 5, 2017, the Senate Banking Committee approved Powell's nomination to be Fed Chair in a 22-1 vote, with Senator Elizabeth Warren casting the lone dissenting vote, and therefore his nomination is expected to be confirmed before the next meeting of the FOMC.

See also:
Fed Policy, Interest Rates and the FOMC:
"The term "monetary policy" refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.
"The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy--open market operations, the discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.
"Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services."--source: federalreserve.gov.

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2017-10-24

Political Economics: Technocracy, President Trump, and the Next Fed Chair

The MacroView from Three Perspectives:
Hawks and Doves: The Five Fed Chair Candidates. On Oct 23, 2017, President Trump said he was 
"very very close" to a decision on who would be the next Chair of The Federal Reserve.
1. Next Fed Chair (videos)
Powell Is a Force at the Federal Reserve, Says Wallace

Bloomberg.com video published Oct 23, 2017: Kim Wallace, head of Washington policy at Renaissance Macro Research (domain: renmac.com), examines the leading contenders to be Federal Reserve Chairman and the warning from Billionaire Ray Dalio for the Fed to watch a U.S. economic divide. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets" on October 23rd.

DomainMondo.com's prediction: Trump will pick Powell to be Fed Chair. Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has reportedly recommended Powell privately to Trump.

A Powell, Taylor Fed Hawkish to Markets, Says Zentner

Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 23, 2017: Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and Steve Barrow, head of FX strategy at Standard Bank, examine what a combination of John Taylor and Jerome Powell on the Federal Reserve could mean to markets. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

What's at stake?
"Whereas Janet Yellen, Bernanke’s successor, ended the Fed’s Q.E. program in 2014, the European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi’s version of it is still going, which has led to the “manipulation” that so concerns Jeffrey Gundlach. European interest rates “should be much higher than they are today,” Gundlach has said, “. . . [and] once Draghi realizes this, the order of the financial system will be turned upside down and it won’t be a good thing. It will mean the liquidity that has been pumping up the markets will be drying up in 2018 . . . Things go down. We’ve been in an artificially inflated market for stocks and bonds largely around the world.”"
2. Political Economics by Jeffrey P. Snider | AlhambraPartners.com 20 Oct 2017, excerpt: "Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same .... Trump’s candidacy, as Bernie Sanders’, as an ideal was a grave threat to the status quo because it started with the premise that, no, this isn’t as good as it can be and that we need to look for real solutions. Whether he forwards that ideal as President is and has been another matter, and who he picks as Fed Chair might be some small indication of where he currently stands consistent with that idea, or perhaps having second thoughts about it. The technocracy doesn’t work because it isn’t technically competent (thus 2008).

"That’s the real political debate in 2017 and going forward; technical incompetence where the defense of the technocracy refuses to even allow the suggestion that this might be true. I go back to Weimar Germany not because I expect a global hyperinflationary breakdown, but in how that one particular form of systemic breakdown exposed timeless flaws inherent in all economic and financial systems. They all run to some extent on trust and (good) faith:
"In other words, German monetary officials, particularly Reichsbank head Rudolf von Havenstein and Minister of Finance Karl Helfferich, denied that Germany had an inflation problem at all – right up until the end. Minister Helfferich declared that Germany had better gold coverage after the war than before it, despite that more than quadrupling of currency volume. One economics professor, Julius Wolf, wrote in 1922 that, “in proportion to the need, less money circulates in Germany now than before the war.”
"As much as the easy-to-see Versailles excuse played a part, there can be no doubt that beyond 1921 the German people themselves began to recognize that authorities had no idea what they were doing; worse, they came to see that even though policymakers were inept and incompetent, officials themselves would never admit as much and thus nothing would prevent Germany from its fate. That awakening meant an increase in danger that French occupation could never have unleashed on its own."
Hat Tip: ZeroHedge.com

3. QT: Quantitative Tightening and the Fed:
Investors Ignore What May Be The Biggest Policy Error In History | Mauldin Economics (excerpt):
"... The chart ... shows the growing uncertainty over the future direction of monetary policy, is both terrifying and enlightening. The Federal Reserve, and indeed the ECB and the Bank of Japan, went to great lengths to assure us that the massive amounts of QE that they pushed into the market would help turn the markets and the economy around. Now they are telling us that as they take that money back off the table, they will have no effect on the markets. And all the data that I just presented above tells us that investors are simply shrugging their shoulders at what is roughly called “quantitative tightening,” or QT. I simply don't buy the notion that QE could have had such an effect on the markets and housing prices while QT will have no impact at all. In the 1930s, the Federal Reserve grew its balance sheet significantly. Then they simply left it alone, the economy grew, and the balance sheet became a nonfactor in the following decades. I don’t know why today’s Fed couldn’t do the same thing. There really is no inflation to speak of, except asset price inflation, and nobody really worries about that. We all want our stocks and home prices to go up, so there’s no real reason for the central bank to lean against inflationary fears; and raising rates and doing QT at the same time seems to me to be taking a little more risk than necessary. And they’re doing it in the midst of the greatest bull market in complacency to emerge in my lifetime. Do they think that taking literally trillions of dollars off their balance sheet over the next few years is not going to have a reverse effect on asset prices? Or at least some effect? Is it really worth the risk?..."

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