Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Full Speech on the US Economy
Video above published Nov 28, 2018: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke Nov 28, 2018, at the Economic Club of New York (domain: econclubny.org) on the state of the U.S. economy and the pace of interest rates.
Jerome H. Powell took office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 5, 2018, for a four-year term. Mr. Powell also serves as Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.
The stock market reacted very favorably to Chairman Powell's speech:
AT THE CLOSE: - Dow and S&P 500 post 2nd best day of the year - Nasdaq has best day since October 25 pic.twitter.com/6u5GhViqJl
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, February 27 at 10:00 a.m. ET to deliver the Federal Reserve’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and to discuss the state of the economy.
How will the Fed’s Jerome Powell characterizes the implications of current market conditionss for Fed policy, and more to watch when the new chairman faces lawmakers this week https://t.co/FR65dcwRkP
Hawks and Doves: The Five Fed Chair Candidates. On Oct 23, 2017, President Trump said he was "very very close" to a decision on who would be the next Chair of The Federal Reserve.
1. Next Fed Chair (videos)
Powell Is a Force at the Federal Reserve, Says Wallace
Bloomberg.com video published Oct 23, 2017: Kim Wallace, head of Washington policy at Renaissance Macro Research (domain: renmac.com), examines the leading contenders to be Federal Reserve Chairman and the warning from Billionaire Ray Dalio for the Fed to watch a U.S. economic divide. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets" on October 23rd.
DomainMondo.com's prediction: Trump will pick Powell to be Fed Chair. Trump's Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has reportedly recommended Powell privately to Trump.
A Powell, Taylor Fed Hawkish to Markets, Says Zentner
Bloomberg.com video above published Oct 23, 2017: Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley and Steve Barrow, head of FX strategy at Standard Bank, examine what a combination of John Taylor and Jerome Powell on the Federal Reserve could mean to markets. They speak on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."
What's at stake?
"Whereas Janet Yellen, Bernanke’s successor, ended the Fed’s Q.E. program in 2014, the European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi’s version of it is still going, which has led to the “manipulation” that so concerns Jeffrey Gundlach. European interest rates“should be much higher than they are today,” Gundlach has said, “. . . [and] once Draghi realizes this, the order of the financial system will be turned upside down and it won’t be a good thing. It will mean the liquidity that has been pumping up the markets will be drying up in 2018 . . . Things go down. We’ve been in an artificially inflated market for stocks and bonds largely around the world.”"
2.Political Economics by Jeffrey P. Snider | AlhambraPartners.com 20 Oct 2017, excerpt: "Who President Trump ultimately picks as the next Federal Reserve Chairman doesn’t really matter. Unless he goes really far afield to someone totally unexpected, whoever that person will be will be largely more of the same .... Trump’s candidacy, as Bernie Sanders’, as an ideal was a grave threat to the status quo because it started with the premise that, no, this isn’t as good as it can be and that we need to look for real solutions. Whether he forwards that ideal as President is and has been another matter, and who he picks as Fed Chair might be some small indication of where he currently stands consistent with that idea, or perhaps having second thoughts about it. The technocracy doesn’t work because it isn’t technically competent (thus 2008). "That’s the real political debate in 2017 and going forward; technical incompetence where the defense of the technocracy refuses to even allow the suggestion that this might be true. I go back to Weimar Germanynot because I expect a global hyperinflationary breakdown, but in how that one particular form of systemic breakdown exposed timeless flaws inherent in all economic and financial systems. They all run to some extent on trust and (good) faith:
"In other words, German monetary officials, particularly Reichsbank head Rudolf von Havenstein and Minister of Finance Karl Helfferich, denied that Germany had an inflation problem at all – right up until the end. Minister Helfferich declared that Germany had better gold coverage after the war than before it, despite that more than quadrupling of currency volume. One economics professor, Julius Wolf, wrote in 1922 that, “in proportion to the need, less money circulates in Germany now than before the war.”
"As much as the easy-to-see Versailles excuse played a part, there can be no doubt that beyond 1921 the German people themselves began to recognize that authorities had no idea what they were doing; worse, they came to see that even though policymakers were inept and incompetent, officials themselves would never admit as much and thus nothing would prevent Germany from its fate. That awakening meant an increase in danger that French occupation could never have unleashed on its own."
"... The chart ... shows the growing uncertainty over the future direction of monetary policy, is both terrifying and enlightening. The Federal Reserve, and indeed the ECB and the Bank of Japan, went to great lengths to assure us that the massive amounts of QE that they pushed into the market would help turn the markets and the economy around. Now they are telling us that as they take that money back off the table, they will have no effect on the markets. And all the data that I just presented above tells us that investors are simply shrugging their shoulders at what is roughly called “quantitative tightening,” or QT. I simply don't buy the notion that QE could have had such an effect on the markets and housing prices while QT will have no impact at all. In the 1930s, the Federal Reserve grew its balance sheet significantly. Then they simply left it alone, the economy grew, and the balance sheet became a nonfactor in the following decades. I don’t know why today’s Fed couldn’t do the same thing. There really is no inflation to speak of, except asset price inflation, and nobody really worries about that. We all want our stocks and home prices to go up, so there’s no real reason for the central bank to lean against inflationary fears; and raising rates and doing QT at the same time seems to me to be taking a little more risk than necessary. And they’re doing it in the midst of the greatest bull market in complacency to emerge in my lifetime. Do they think that taking literally trillions of dollars off their balance sheet over the next few years is not going to have a reverse effect on asset prices? Or at least some effect? Is it really worth the risk?..."
Video above published March 15, 2017, by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors is Janet Yellen.
On March 15th, the FOMC raised the interest rate by 25 BPS as expected. Federal Open Market Committee statement--excerpt: "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."
DJIA and S&P500 closed UP Wednesday after FOMC Rate Hike
FRB: Monetary Policy: "Federal Open Market Committee Monetary policy is made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and five Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year, and other meetings as needed."
Fed Statement Tracker | WSJ.com: The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Pundits and traders parse the changes between statements closely to see how policy makers’ views are evolving. Use the tool at the link above to compare any two statements since 2007.
Evercore CEO: We're 'Close to the End of the Line' for Monetary Stimulus:
Evercore CEO: We've Got A Slow Growth Economy That Is Vulnerable - Ralph Schlosstein, chief executive officer at Evercore Partners, evercore.com, discusses the restrictions of monetary policy and the need for a move to fiscal policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg ‹GO›", published by Bloomberg.com May 4, 2016. Video below: Survey Reports Small Business Optimism Hits 3-Year Low
Despite a strengthening employment picture nationwide, a new Bank of America survey indicates less than a quarter of small business owners plan to hire new employees in 2016 amid pessimism about economic growth. Bank of America's Sue Lonergan and small business owner Sal Rizzo join Lunch Break with Tanya Rivero to discuss. Published by WSJ.com on May 4, 2016
Video below: World markets continue to behave as though there is a risk of a US recession
America's profits recession | Authers' Note: John Authers looks at profits and revenues data to try to explain why. Published by FT.com on May 4, 2016.
Senator to Yellen: Forget stock drop, normalize (CNBC - 11 Feb 2016): Sen. Pat Toomey [(R) Pennsylvania] said the Federal Reserve should continue moving monetary policy back to normal, despite the swings in the financial markets. "I'm going to try to be a voice for encouraging a normalization," Toomey told CNBC's "Squawk Box." The Pennsylvania Republican is member of Senate Banking Committee, where Fed Chair Janet Yellen appeared before the Committee in the second part of her semiannual testimony on the economy.
In testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Yellen kept her options open to further hike interest rates while acknowledging the financial market turmoil and concerns about China. "We shouldn't be shocked that some asset prices have a little bit of a rough ride along the way," Toomey said.
"We've got a Fed that's just been winging it by the seat of their pants … in one direction right, this unbelievable accommodative policy, this unprecedented policy, which I think is very dangerous," Toomey said. He contended that the Fed's stated goal was to boost asset prices with easy money, so it stands to reason that tighter policy could reverse things a bit.
The Transformation of Finance, Davos 2016 WEF Video: What trends and uncertainties are shaping the future of financial services? Transformations to be addressed:
Digitization and new business models
Regulatory requirements and new client needs
Data privacy and systemic connectedness
Speakers:
Dan Schulman - President and CEO of PayPal and Chairman of Symantec
Gillian R. Tett - author and journalist at the Financial Times
John Cryan - businessman and co-chief executive of Deutsche Bank AG in Frankfurt am Main
James P. Gorman - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley
Tom de Swaan - Chairman, Interim Chief Executive Officer, Zurich Insurance Group AG
Christine Lagarde - Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The parallels between the financial industry and the domain name industry are interesting--take note particularly (begins @37:00) the public role of banks and financial institutions as regulated utilities, with duties to act as extensions of law enforcement, required to collect and analyze data, report "suspicious" patterns and transactions, even closing customer accounts, etc.--if you want an insight into the future of the domain name industry and internet governance, watch this video.
Notes: What is the future of finance? What are the trends and uncertainties that are disrupting financial services, and how should we react? Panel member Christine Lagarde addressed this topic on the WEF website, Agenda. The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) looked ahead to what 2016 might hold for the global economy. She wrote:
“One reason that the global economy is so sluggish is that, seven years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, financial stability is not yet assured. Financial-sector weaknesses linger in many countries – and financial risks are growing in emerging markets.”
“Putting all of this together, global growth in 2016 will be disappointing and uneven. The global economy’s medium-term growth prospects have weakened as well, because potential growth is being held back by low productivity, aging populations, and the legacies of the global financial crisis. High debt, low investment, and weak banks continue to burden some advanced economies, especially in Europe; and many emerging economies continue to face adjustments after their post-crisis credit and investment boom.
“This outlook is heavily affected by some major economic transitions that are creating global spillovers and spillbacks, particularly China’s transition to a new growth model and the normalization of US monetary policy. Both shifts are necessary and healthy. They are good for China, good for the US, and good for the world. The challenge is to manage them as efficiently and as smoothly as possible.”
“Our lives are being shaken to their very core by technological change, with the Fourth Industrial Revolution transforming economies as never before. The unprecedented speed of change, as well as the breadth and the depth of many radical changes unleashed by new digital, robotic and 3D technologies, is having major impacts on what we produce and do, how and where we do it and indeed how we earn a living. And while the transformation will proceed differently in advanced and developing parts of the world, no country or market will be spared from the tidal wave of change.”
It’s an interesting time for finance, says moderator Gillian R Tett. In 2007, bankers were on top of the world, holding their heads up high. Then, the crash, and since then many of the panels here in Davos have been dominated by what went wrong and what could be done to make things safer. Now, the discussions are forward looking, with less focus on regulation and more attention on fintech and the changes – both positive and negative – that are happening in the world of finance. The biggest challenge, argues Tett, isn’t a crisis in regulation, but the new players. Although regulation has moved out of the spotlight, there is still work to be done in this area, argues Christine Lagarde. There are issues between the US and Europe around over-the-counter derivatives and clearing systems which are not progressing at the speed at which they should. These areas need more regulation, says the IMF head. Basic retail banking is changing, Lagarde goes on to say. It’s being disrupted by innovations and there are people now who have never been – never had to – go into a bank. But this is merely another way of doing business. Virtual currencies and blockchains, on the other hand, can cause deeper disruptions. They may be relatively small (the current value of virtual currencies is around $7 billion), and may be nothing to worry about. They could also turn out to be beneficial – in reducing costs, providing better value and reaching the unbanked. But they could also a great instrument for crime. There is the potential for financing terrorism and the illicit economy, and they could disrupt monetary policy. The IMF has today released a report on this topic: Virtual Currencies and Beyond.
Will cash exist in the future?
The consensus is that, in 10 years, cash will no longer exist. Why? Because it’s inefficient, unnecessary and plays a key role in the illicit economy. Tom de Swaan believes that insurance will be the most affected of all the finance industries. Life at the top of a financial group was not, is not and will not be easy, because it is disruptive. “You have to find alliances with disruptors,” he says. “I haven’t met one who wants the insurance liability on their balance sheet.”
Dan Schulman, who heads perhaps one of the biggest disruptors in the industy – PayPal – says the biggest impediment to future success, is past success. “A lot of big companies extrapolate from what was and don’t imagine what could be. And this is a big danger.” His five key trends:
Money is definitely digitizing, cheques are disappearing. But let’s not forget that 85% of global transactions are still made with cash.
Mobile is exploding across the world. Soon everyone will have a smartphone and hold the power of a bank branch in one hand. This allows the industry to think about consumer transactions in an entirely different way, and it brings in billions of people.
The amount of data is exploding, and it’s not going to stop. Algorithms are the weapons of the digital company, and the ammunition is data. The better the quality of this data, the more value it is to the consumer. Security and privacy are genuine concerns, but data is going to change value propositions.
Industry lines are blurring, and product lines are blurring. Take digital payments – which involve tech companies, mobile carriers, handset manufacturers and merchants.
Security – something Schulman thinks about every day. There is so much data, and authentication is therefore very challenging.
Are regulators ready for this transformation?Tom de Swaan argues that regulators first need to define, what are they going to regulate? Privacy? The movement of data? The financial world is still rebuilding trust with consumers, and doing this while convincing them we need their data to create new products is a huge challenge. The regulatory environment also needs to be globally applicable.
Schulman: What are we trying to regulate, he asks? Let’s not look back at what happened, but what is likely to happen in the future. He thinks it’s likely a major hack could happen, but innovation needs to be responsible and we need to be able to try new things without worrying about over-regulation.
Lagarde supports Schulman’s idea of a “sandbox” to try new ideas, as this would help us to deal with trust and limit any damage to consumers. She doesn’t entirely agree, however, with John Cryan’s suggestion that regulation is made by policy-makers, rather than the regulators themselves. Governments do participate, she says, but the decisions are still being made by the likes of the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee, and then channelled into the regulatory system. For bad or for good, the profession still has a lot to do with how supervision is defined. Gorman believes that cyber-security issues need to be addressed. At the heart of the banking system, he says, is trust. When this goes, people want their money back, but the banks don’t have this money, they’ve given it to someone else, and this is what caused the 2008 crisis.
What about the future of blockchains? Cryan does not see this sector growing too quickly in the next 4-5 years. Banks are better prepared to manage cash flow of debt and are able to gain insights regarding the credit worthiness of debtors better than someone who can’t access this knowledge.
Blanchflower: The U.S. Economy Is Slowing - Former Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member David (Danny) Blanchflower discusses the U.S. economy and Fed policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets," on Oct 15, 2015
David Graham (Danny) Blanchflower CBE is a leading labour economist, currently a tenured economics professor at Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire. (source: Wikipedia)
EU EZ & 17 EU countries & Swiss in deflation no country with inflation anywhere near 2% target
https://t.co/4Rr8Oa8GGg
