2015-07-06

Apple Watch, Apple Music, Apple #FAILS? $AAPL, Google Search Trends

UPDATE August 20, 2015: People are giving up on Apple Music survey says – 48% of “free trial” users stopped using it while only 11 percent of iOS users have tried the streaming service so far, according to MusicWatch and The Verge via @verge #Apple $AAPL

UPDATE (July 26, 2015): Why the iPhone matters to Apple - Business Insider (Jul. 26, 2015): "... Apple's stock tanked globally ... People are clearly worried that Apple's 'golden goose' is in trouble ... there was one key metric that fell below Wall Street's expectations: The number of iPhone units sold ..." (emphasis added)

UPDATE: July 23, 2015: Apple Music is described as a "nightmare"--Apple Music is a nightmare and I’m done with it"At some point, enough is enough. That time has come for me—Apple Music is just too much of a hassle to be bothered with. Nobody I’ve spoken at Apple or outside the company has any idea how to fix it, so the chances of a positive outcome seem slim to none." (read more at the link above)

UPDATE July 21, 2015: Bloomberg reports today Apple Poised for $50 Billion Loss of Stock Market Value: "The biggest technology rally since October was knocked cold, as disappointing earnings reports punished Microsoft Corp. and left Apple Inc. in danger of its worst-ever loss of market value. Five days after Google Inc.’s earnings sparked the largest one-day increase in market capitalization, computer and software shares are tumbling ... Apple, the world’s most valuable company, dropped 6.7 percent, a slump that would wipe more than $50 billion from its value... Apple slid in late trading after iPhone shipments for the fiscal third quarter and the company’s revenue forecast for the current period missed analysts’ projections, raising questions over whether demand for the device has peaked. If the stock sinks that much in regular trading, the hit to market cap would be the second-biggest in the company’s history, after a $59.6 billion drop on Jan. 24, 2013." Check after-hours trading on NASDAQ: AAPL

UPDATE (July 20, 2015)Skepticism remains about the Apple WatchThe New York Times (July 19, 2015) -"... lack of support from Facebook — and from other popular app makers like Snapchat and Google, which also have few if any apps for Apple Watch — underscores the skepticism that remains in the technology community about the wearable device ..." (emphasis added)

UPDATE (July 9, 2015): The Chilling Thing Gartner Just Said ...| Wolf Street: "MarketWatch reported that [Apple Watch] sales, based on data from Slice, might have plunged 90% since that week, to fewer than 20,000 watches a day, and on some days fewer than 10,000. “The value of a smartwatch for the average user is still not compelling enough,” explained IT research and advisory company Gartner in its report on worldwide electronic device shipments." Gartner Says Worldwide Device Shipments to Grow 1.5 Percent, to Reach 2.5 Billion Units in 2015:The mobile phone market growth rate is expected to slow down to 3.3 percent growth in 2015. "The global market has been affected by a weaker performance in China. We have witnessed fewer and fewer first time buyers in China, a sign that the mobile phone market in there is reaching saturation. 

Chart of 2005-2015 Search Trends: Blue-AppleWatch; Red-iPod; Orange-iPad; Green-iPhone; Purple-AppleMusic
2005-2015 Search Trends: Blue-AppleWatch; Red-iPod; Orange-iPad; Green-iPhone; Purple-AppleMusic.
Source: Search Terms via 
GoogleTrends (data as of July 5, 2015; forecast shown as dashed lines)

chart of 2015 Search Trends: Blue-AppleWatch; Red-iPod; Orange-iPad; Green-iPhone; Purple-AppleMusic
2015 Search Terms: Blue-AppleWatch; Red-iPod; Orange-iPad; Green-iPhone; Purple-AppleMusic.
Source: GoogleTrends (data as of July 5, 2015)
So far in 2015, Apple Watch and Apple Music rank with Apple's almost gone iPod in search trends--iPhone (green line) still a very popular search term--but for how long? See: Domain Mondo: The Problem With Apple $AAPL (June 8, 2015) and Safari is the new IE | Read the Tea Leaves: "In recent years, Apple’s strategy towards the web can most charitably be described as “benevolent neglect.” Although performance has been improving significantly with JSCore and the new WKWebView, the emerging features of the web platform – offline storage, push notifications, and “installable” webapps – have been notably absent on Safari" (emphasis added). Of course we really won't know about Apple Music until after the free three-month trial period is over, although some music industry insiders are already calling it a failure.

And Apple stock? The picture doesn't look pretty since the June 8th Apple WWDC 2015 keynote (June 8th was the launch date of Apple Music; Apple Watch launched April 24, 2015):

Chart of Apple stock AAPL since Apple Music launch of June 8, 2015.
Apple stock AAPL since Apple Music launch of June 8, 2015. Chart source: google.com
Chart showing Apple stock AAPL was at $132.65 the day before Apple Watch launched
Apple stock AAPL was at $132.65 the day before Apple Watch launched, a price it hasn't seen since--
the launch of two major products and Apple stock is down! Chart source: google.com
Check Apple stock price now: NASDAQ: AAPL

Principal domain name: apple.com

Tim Cook is a supply chain guy. Jony Ive is a hardware design guru. As noted in Domain Mondo's first post in this series, Apple is falling behind in technology. At some point, consumers will start to notice, if they haven't already.

Note: As noted above, this is the second in a series of articles on Apple, its products and services, and AAPL stock (disclaimer at the bottom of this web page and here.)

See  also: Apple Watch demand is looking worse than expected - Business Insider (July 1, 2015).


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