Frank Schilling has been wrong about a lot of things, as have ICANN and everyone else involved with promoting and trying to sell ICANN's new gTLDs (new generic top-level domains). Frank made a bad decision early (before the new gTLDs even launched) to abandon his core constituency and join other new gTLD hucksters--registry operators--as well as some current or former ICANN Directors, Officers and staff, and other fellow travellers, in utilizing a new gTLD marketing strategy of going negative against the legacy gTLDs, particularly the market dominant .COM.
It didn't work.
This year, Frank acknowledged, for the first time publicly, that some new gTLDs "just don't work" and some new gTLDs may "go dark." We all make mistakes--we're only human--but it's important to recognize our mistakes to avoid repeating them. As far as predictions go, whether Frank's or someone else's, remember what that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said--
It didn't work.
This year, Frank acknowledged, for the first time publicly, that some new gTLDs "just don't work" and some new gTLDs may "go dark." We all make mistakes--we're only human--but it's important to recognize our mistakes to avoid repeating them. As far as predictions go, whether Frank's or someone else's, remember what that great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said--
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
"We should not expect people to be infallible; indeed, each year, I publish my own mea culpa column. But I prefer errors to be of the honest kind and not a nonsensical form of self-promotion. As we have noted previously, forecasts and predictions are simply an aggressive, destructive form of marketing. Like so much else in the world, the overwhelming majority of investment-related online opinion is junk. Intelligent investors understand that. They know that other people have agendas, biases and cognitive issues that make their perspective less valuable or relevant. Those who must learn this the hard way will find that education to be very expensive indeed."--Barry Ritholtz, Sorting Through Online Investment Noise | The Big Picture
2015: .info shrinks, com flatlines, some NewG accidentally GA's a name they need + barters premium to get it back. Biz gets beat by a New G.
— Frank Schilling (@Frank_Schilling) February 15, 2014
Frank Schilling (Feb 15, 2014): 2015: dot COM flatlines -- Flat, as in no growth?
Frank Schilling: "yup no effective growth after deletions." (source)
Reality check:
As of Dec. 31, 2014, the base of registered domain names in .COM: 115.6 million
As of Dec. 31, 2015, the base of registered domain names in .COM: 124.0 million
For an honest assessment of ICANN's new gTLDs from a "business" and "domainer" perspective, look no further than Rick Schwartz's recent post--his assessment--"I have never seen so many negative variables in any business in my life."
Caveat Emptor!
See also on Domain Mondo:
- What Domain Mondo Will Be Watching For in 2016
- Housing Bubble Like New gTLDs Mania? The Big Short Trailer (video)
- Back to the Future: ICANN CEO Rod Beckstrom, CSIS Keynote, 2012 video - Some New gTLDs 'Will Fail'
